Dynamics of ''internal'' interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM

1] The poor predictability of the Indian summer monsoon ( ISM) appears to be due to the fact that a large fraction of interannual variability (IAV) is governed by unpredictable "internal'' low frequency variations. Mechanisms responsible for the internal IAV of the monsoon have not been clearly identified. Here, an attempt has been made to gain insight regarding the origin of internal IAV of the seasonal ( June - September, JJAS) mean rainfall from "internal'' IAV of the ISM simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) driven by fixed annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST). The underlying hypothesis that monsoon ISOs are responsible for internal IAV of the ISM is tested. The spatial and temporal characteristics of simulated summer intraseasonal oscillations ( ISOs) are found to be in good agreement with those observed. A long integration with the AGCM forced with observed SST, shows that ISO activity over the Asian monsoon region is not modulated by the observed SST variations. The internal IAV of ISM, therefore, appears to be decoupled from external IAV. Hence, insight gained from this study may be useful in understanding the observed internal IAV of ISM. The spatial structure of the ISOs has a significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season ( seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broad-band nature of the ISO spectrum allowing the time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relation is a manifestation of the binomial character of rainfall time series. The remaining 50% of the IAV may arise due to land-surface processes, interaction between high frequency variability and ISOs, etc.

X-ray and molecular-dynamics studies on Mycobacterium leprae single-stranded DNA-binding protein and comparison with other eubacterial SSB structures

The crystal structures of two forms of Mycobacterium leprae single-stranded DNA-binding protein (SSB) have been determined at 2.05 and 2.8 A resolution. Comparison of these structures with the structures of other eubacterial SSBs indicates considerable variation in their quaternary association, although the DNA-binding domains in all of them exhibit the same OB-fold. This variation has no linear correlation with sequence variation, but could be related to variation in protein stability. Molecular-dynamics simulations have been carried out on tetrameric molecules derived from the two forms and the prototype Escherichia coli SSB and the individual subunits of both proteins. Together, the X-ray studies and molecular-dynamics simulations yield information on the relatively rigid and flexible regions of the molecule and on the effect of oligomerization on flexibility. The simulations provide insight into the changes in subunit structure on oligomerization. They also provide insight into the stability and time evolution of the hydrogen bonds/water bridges that connect the two pairs of monomers in the tetramer.

Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics

The way in which basal tractions, associated with mantle convection, couples with the lithosphere is a fundamental problem in geodynamics. A successful lithosphere-mantle coupling model for the Earth will satisfy observations of plate motions, intraplate stresses, and the plate boundary zone deformation. We solve the depth integrated three-dimensional force balance equations in a global finite element model that takes into account effects of both topography and shallow lithosphere structure as well as tractions originating from deeper mantle convection. The contribution from topography and lithosphere structure is estimated by calculating gravitational potential energy differences. The basal tractions are derived from a fully dynamic flow model with both radial and lateral viscosity variations. We simultaneously fit stresses and plate motions in order to delineate a best-fit lithosphere-mantle coupling model. We use both the World Stress Map and the Global Strain Rate Model to constrain the models. We find that a strongly coupled model with a stiff lithosphere and 3-4 orders of lateral viscosity variations in the lithosphere are best able to match the observational constraints. Our predicted deviatoric stresses, which are dominated by contribution from mantle tractions, range between 20-70 MPa. The best-fitting coupled models predict strain rates that are consistent with observations. That is, the intraplate areas are nearly rigid whereas plate boundaries and some other continental deformation zones display high strain rates. Comparison of mantle tractions and surface velocities indicate that in most areas tractions are driving, although in a few regions, including western North America, tractions are resistive. Citation: Ghosh, A., W. E. Holt, and L. M. Wen (2013), Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics.

Current kinematics and dynamics of Africa and the East African Rift System

Although the East African Rift System (EARS) is an archetype continental rift, the forces driving its evolution remain debated. Some contend buoyancy forces arising from gravitational potential energy (GPE) gradients within the lithosphere drive rifting. Others argue for a major role of the diverging mantle flow associated with the African Superplume. Here we quantify the forces driving present-day continental rifting in East Africa by (1) solving the depth averaged 3-D force balance equations for 3-D deviatoric stress associated with GPE, (2) inverting for a stress field boundary condition that we interpret as originating from large-scale mantle tractions, (3) calculating dynamic velocities due to lithospheric buoyancy forces, lateral viscosity variations, and velocity boundary conditions, and (4) calculating dynamic velocities that result from the stress response of horizontal mantle tractions acting on a viscous lithosphere in Africa and surroundings. We find deviatoric stress associated with lithospheric GPE gradients are similar to 8-20 MPa in EARS, and the minimum deviatoric stress resulting from basal shear is similar to 1.6 MPa along the EARS. Our dynamic velocity calculations confirm that a force contribution from GPE gradients alone is sufficient to drive Nubia-Somalia divergence and that additional forcing from horizontal mantle tractions overestimates surface kinematics. Stresses from GPE gradients appear sufficient to sustain present-day rifting in East Africa; however, they are lower than the vertically integrated strength of the lithosphere along most of the EARS. This indicates additional processes are required to initiate rupture of continental lithosphere, but once it is initiated, lithospheric buoyancy forces are enough to maintain rifting.

Joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics: Evaluation of constraints from global tomography models

With the advances in technology, seismological theory, and data acquisition, a number of high-resolution seismic tomography models have been published. However, discrepancies between tomography models often arise from different theoretical treatments of seismic wave propagation, different inversion strategies, and different data sets. Using a fixed velocity-to-density scaling and a fixed radial viscosity profile, we compute global mantle flow models associated with the different tomography models and test the impact of these for explaining surface geophysical observations (geoid, dynamic topography, stress, and strain rates). We use the joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics approach of Ghosh and Holt (2012) to compute the full lithosphere stresses, except that we use HC for the mantle circulation model, which accounts for the primary flow-coupling features associated with density-driven mantle flow. Our results show that the seismic tomography models of S40RTS and SAW642AN provide a better match with surface observables on a global scale than other models tested. Both of these tomography models have important similarities, including upwellings located in Pacific, Eastern Africa, Iceland, and mid-ocean ridges in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean and downwelling flows mainly located beneath the Andes, the Middle East, and central and Southeast Asia.

Rarefied gas dynamics: fundamentals, simulations and micro flows

ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels

The European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) is one of the most established ecosystem models for the lower trophic levels of the marine food web in the scientific literature. Since its original development in the early nineties it has evolved significantly from a coastal ecosystem model for the North Sea to a generic tool for ecosystem simulations from shelf seas to the global ocean. The current model release contains all essential elements for the pelagic and benthic parts of the marine ecosystem, including the microbial food web, the carbonate system, and calcification. Its distribution is accompanied by a testing framework enabling the analysis of individual parts of the model. Here we provide a detailed mathematical description of all ERSEM components along with case studies of mesocosm-type simulations, water column implementations, and a brief example of a full-scale application for the north-western European shelf. Validation against in situ data demonstrates the capability of the model to represent the marine ecosystem in contrasting environments.

And We’d Like to Thank…::Romania’s Integration into the European Union, 1989-2007

Conditionality is formally a key determinant of many non-member states’ relations with the EU. It is particularly so for states intent on membership. As the case of Romania shows, the EU’s use of conditionality is far from consistent. Relations can develop and accession take place without the requisite conditions being met. This follows from the use the EU makes of the flexibility evident in its evolving and generally vague definitions of the conditions that need to be met. Hence it was often extraneous factors over which Romania had either limited or no influence that were responsible for key developments in relations. These factors include the geopolitical and strategic interests of the EU and its member states, the actions of the Commission and the agenda-setting and constraining effects of rhetorical commitments and timetables, and the dynamics of the EU’s evolving approach to eastern enlargement.

Prospective information for pass decisional behaviour in Rugby Union

Decision-making requires the perception of relevant information variables that emerge from the player–environment interaction. The purpose of the present article is to empirically assess whether players’ decisional behavior about which type of pass to make is influenced by the spatio-temporal variable tau. Time series positional data of rugby players were analyzed from video footage taken in real match scenarios. The tau of the distance motion gap between attacker and defender was calculated, along with the duration of the next pass. Results revealed that the initial tau value predicted 64% of the variance found in pass duration. A qualitative distinction of tau dynamics between two periods of the approach between the attacker and the defender was also observed. We argue that the time-to-contact between the attacker and the defender may yield information about future pass possibilities. Additionally, the informational fields constraining attacker–defender interaction may be viewed as a convergent channeling of possibilities towards a single pass solution.

Towards a better understanding of the nature and contribution of the interflow to catchment dynamics.

A detailed understanding of flow and contaminant transfer along each of the key hydrological pathways within a catchment is critical for designing and implementing cost effective Programmes of Measures under the Water
Framework Directive.
The Contaminant Movement along Pathways Project (’The Pathways Project’) is an Irish, EPA STRIVE funded, large multi-disciplinary project which is focussed on understanding and modelling flow and attenuation along each of these pathways for the purposes of developing a catchment management tool. The tool will be used by EPA and RBD catchment managers to assess and manage the impacts of diffuse contamination on stream aquatic ecology. Four main contaminants of interest — nitrogen, phosphorus, sediment and pathogens — are being
investigated in four instrumented test catchments. In addition to the usual hydrological and water chemistry/quality parameters typically captured in catchment studies, field measurements at the test catchments include ecological
sampling, sediment dynamics, soil moisture dynamics, and groundwater levels and chemistry/quality, both during and between significant rainfall events. Spatial and temporal sampling of waters directly from the pathways of
interest is also being carried out.
Sixty-five percent of Ireland is underlain by poorly productive aquifers. In these hydrogeological settings, the main pathways delivering flow to streams are overland flow, interflow and shallow bedrock flow. Little is
known about the interflow pathway and its relative importance in delivery of flow and contaminants to the streams. Interflow can occur in both the topsoil and subsoil, and may include unsaturated matrix flow, bypass or macropore
flow, saturated flow in locally perched water tables and artificial field drainage.
Results to date from the test catchment experiments show that artificial field drains play an important role in the delivery of interflow to these streams, during and between rainfall events when antecedent conditions are
favourable. Hydrochemical mixing models, using silica and SAC254 (the absorbance of UV light at a wavelength of 254 nm which is a proxy for dissolved organic matter) as tracers, show that drain flow is an important end
member contributing to the stream and that proportionally, its contribution is relatively high.
Results from the study also demonstrate that waters originating from one pathway often mix with the waters from another, and are subsequently delivered to the stream at rates, and with chemical/quality characteristics,
that are not typical of either pathway. For example, pre-event shallow groundwater not far from the catchment divide comes up to the surface as rejected recharge during rainfall events and is rapidly delivered to the stream
via overland flow and/or artificial land drainage, bringing with it higher nitrate than would often be expected from a quickflow pathway contribution. This is contrary to the assumption often made in catchment studies that the
deeper hydrological pathways have slower response times in stream hydrographs during a rainfall event, and it emphasizes that it is critical to have a strong three-dimensional conceptual model as the basis for the interpretation
of catchment data.

Social Class Variation in Risk: A Comparative Analysis of the Dynamics of Economic Vulnerability

A joint concern with multidimensionality and dynamics is a defining feature of the pervasive use of the terminology of social exclusion in the European Union. The notion of social exclusion focuses attention on economic vulnerability in the sense of exposure to risk and uncertainty. Sociological concern with these issues has been associated with the thesis that risk and uncertainty have become more pervasive and extend substantially beyond the working class. This paper combines features of recent approaches to statistical modelling of poverty dynamics and multidimensional deprivation in order to develop our understanding of the dynamics of economic vulnerability. An analysis involving nine countries and covering the first five waves of the European Community Household Panel shows that, across nations and time, it is possible to identify an economically vulnerable class. This class is characterized by heightened risk of falling below a critical resource level, exposure to material deprivation and experience of subjective economic stress. Cross-national differentials in persistence of vulnerability are wider than in the case of income poverty and less affected by measurement error. Economic vulnerability profiles vary across welfare regimes in a manner broadly consistent with our expectations. Variation in the impact of social class within and across countries provides no support for the argument that its role in structuring such risk has become much less important. Our findings suggest that it is possible to accept the importance of the emergence of new forms of social risk and acknowledge the significance of efforts to develop welfare states policies involving a shift of opportunities and decision making on to individuals without accepting the 'death of social class' thesis.

Assessing suspended sediment dynamics in relation to ecological thresholds and sampling strategies in two Irish headwater catchments

Prediction of the impact of suspended sediment on aquatic ecosystems requires adequate knowledge of sediment dynamics in surface waters. Often, studies reporting the response of aquatic biota to suspended sediment are concerned with concentrations, while catchment erosion studies often report sediment delivery as annual loads and yields, making the comparison to documented ecological impacts difficult. Similarly, the European Union Freshwater Fish Directive (FFD) (78/659/EC) stipulates a guideline value of 25mgl which should not be exceeded, with the exception of floods and droughts. In this respect, the significance of suspended sediment in two Irish rivers was assessed using turbidity sensors calibrated for suspended sediment. Sediment yields of 0.07 tonnes (t) hayear and 0.44thayear and annual FFD exceedance frequency of 8.3% and 17.8% were estimated for the two catchments. Contrasts in the frequency of exceedance events between both catchments was observed, yet duration was typically short (

Rough Waters, Dark Shadows and Cross-Cutting Winds:the impact of European Union enlargement on Turkey’s EU accession negotiations

For a multiplicity of socio-economic, geo-political, strategic and identity-based reasons, Turkey’s progress towards EU membership is often treated as a sui generis case. Yet although Turkey’s accession negotiations with the European Union (EU) are essentially a bilateral – and often stormy – affair, they take place within a wider and dynamic process of enlargement in which not only can the gloomy – sometimes dark – shadows of past and prospective enlargements be clearly detected, but so too can the often chill winds from ongoing, parallel negotiations with other candidates. How the EU negotiates accession and what it expects from candidates has continued to evolve since the EU began drawing up its framework for negotiations with Turkey ten years ago. This paper charts this evolution by first identifying changes in the light of Croatia’s negotiating experience, the ‘lessons learnt’ by the EU in meeting the challenges of Bulgarian and Romanian accession, the EU’s handling of Iceland’s membership bid and accession negotiations, and the revised approach to negotiating accession evident in the more recent frameworks for accession negotiations with Montenegro and Serbia. The paper then explores the extent to which these changes have impacted on the approach the EU has adopted in framing and progressing accession negotiations with Turkey. In doing so, it questions both the consistency with which the EU’s negotiates accession and the extent to which Turkey’s progress towards EU membership is conditioned by the broader dynamics of EU enlargement as opposed to simply the dynamics within EU-Turkey relations and domestic Turkish reform efforts.

A Changing UK in a Changing Europe: The UK State between European Union and Devolution

Two issues currently dominate the UK's constitutional landscape: the UK's membership of the European Union (EU) on the one hand; and the unsettled constitutional settlements between the UK and the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on the other. This article considers these two issues in concert. It stresses the distinct relationships between the EU and the devolved territories within the UK—concerning both devolved and non-devolved policy areas—highlighting the salience of a devolved perspective in any consideration of UK–EU relations. Despite its importance, sensitivity to this has been lacking. The article explores the implications of a ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’ outcome on the future of the internal territorial dynamics within the UK. While there are too many unknowns to be certain of anything, that there will be knock-on effects is, however, beyond doubt.