Priority threat management of invasive plant species in the Lake Eyre Basin

This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.

Productivity is a poor predictor of plant species richness

For more than 30 years, the relationship between net primary productivity and species richness has generated intense debate in ecology about the processes regulating local diversity. The original view, which is still widely accepted, holds that the relationship is hump-shaped, with richness first rising and then declining with increasing productivity. Although recent meta-analyses questioned the generality of hump-shaped patterns, these syntheses have been criticized for failing to account for methodological differences among studies. We addressed such concerns by conducting standardized sampling in 48 herbaceous-dominated plant communities on five continents. We found no clear relationship between productivity and fine-scale (meters−2) richness within sites, within regions, or across the globe. Ecologists should focus on fresh, mechanistic approaches to understanding the multivariate links between productivity and richness.

Plant species’ origin predicts dominance and response to nutrient enrichment and herbivores in global grasslands

Exotic species dominate many communities; however the functional significance of species’ biogeographic origin remains highly contentious. This debate is fuelled in part by the lack of globally replicated, systematic data assessing the relationship between species provenance, function and response to perturbations. We examined the abundance of native and exotic plant species at 64 grasslands in 13 countries, and at a subset of the sites we experimentally tested native and exotic species responses to two fundamental drivers of invasion, mineral nutrient supplies and vertebrate herbivory. Exotic species are six times more likely to dominate communities than native species. Furthermore, while experimental nutrient addition increases the cover and richness of exotic species, nutrients decrease native diversity and cover. Native and exotic species also differ in their response to vertebrate consumer exclusion. These results suggest that species origin has functional significance, and that eutrophication will lead to increased exotic dominance in grasslands.

Spatial and temporal distribution of tropical phytoplankton species and biomass in the Gulf of Carpenteria, Australia

The biomass and species composition of tropical phytoplankton in Albatross Bay, Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia, were examined monthly for 6 yr (1986 to 1992). Chlorophyll a (chl a) concentrations were highest (2 to 5.7 mu g l(-1)) in the wet season at inshore sites, usually coinciding with low salinities (30 to 33 ppt) and high temperatures (29 to 32 degrees C). At the offshore sites chi a concentrations were lower (0.2 to 2 mu g l(-1)) and did not vary seasonally. Nitrate and phosphate concentrations were generally low (0 to 3.68 mu M and 0.09 to 3 mu M for nitrate and phosphate respectively), whereas silicate was present in concentrations in the range 0.19 to 13 mu M. The phytoplankton community was dominated by diatoms, particularly at the inshore sites, as determined by a combination of microscopic and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) pigment analyses. At the offshore sites the proportion of green flagellates increased. The cyanobacterium genus Trichodesmium and the diatom genera Chaetoceros, Rhizosolenia, Bacteriastrum and Thalassionema dominated the phytoplankton caught in 37 mu m mesh nets; however, in contrast to many other coastal areas studied worldwide there was no distinct species succession of the diatoms and only Trichodesmium showed seasonal changes in abundance. This reflects a stable phytoplankton community in waters without pulses of physical and chemical disturbances. These results are discussed in the context of the commercial prawn fishery in the Gulf of Carpentaria and the possible effect of phytoplankton on prawn larval growth and survival.

Tree species diversity and ecosystem function: Can tropical multi-species plantations generate greater productivity?

Results from the humid tropics of Australia demonstrate that diverse plantations can achieve greater productivity than monocultures. We found that increases in both the observed species number and the effective species richness were significantly related to increased levels of productivity as measured by stand basal area or mean individual tree basal area. Four of five plantation species were more productive in mixtures with other species than in monocultures, offering on average, a 55% increase in mean tree basal area. A general linear model suggests that species richness had a significant effect on mean individual tree basal area when environmental variables were included in the model. As monoculture plantations are currently the preferred reforestation method throughout the tropics these results suggest that significant productivity and ecological gains could be made if multi-species plantations are more broadly pursued.

Heterologous signals allow efficient targeting of a nuclear-encoded fusion protein to plastids and endoplasmic reticulum in diverse plant species

Approximately 30% of plant nuclear genes appear to encode proteins targeted to the plastids or endoplasmic reticulum (ER). The signals that direct proteins into these compartments are diverse in sequence, but, on the basis of a limited number of tests in heterologous systems, they appear to be functionally conserved across species. To further test the generality of this conclusion, we tested the ability of two plastid transit peptides and an ER signal peptide to target green fluorescent protein (GFP) in 12 crops, including three monocots (barley, sugarcane, wheat) and nine dicots (Arabidopsis, broccoli, cabbage, carrot, cauliflower, lettuce, radish, tobacco, turnip). In all species, transient assays following microprojectile bombardment or vacuum infiltration using Agrobacterium showed that the plastid transit peptides from tomato DCL (defective chloroplast and leaves) and tobacco RbcS [ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase (Rubisco) small subunit] genes were effective in targeting GFP to the leaf plastids. GFP engineered as a fusion to the N-terminal ER signal peptide from Arabidopsis basic chitinase and a C-terminal HDEL signal for protein retention in the ER was accumulated in the ER of all species. The results in tobacco were confirmed in stably transformed cells. These signal sequences should be useful to direct proteins to the plastid stroma or ER lumen in diverse plant species of biotechnological interest for the accumulation of particular recombinant proteins or for the modification of particular metabolic streams.

Melaleuca densispicata in Currawinya National Park, South-West Queensland: Ecology and preliminary implications for management of a rare plant species

Melaleuca densispicata Byrnes is an uncommon species with a limited distribution, comprising disjunct populations in inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, Australia. It is a dense, woody shrub, 2–4 m in height, which exhibits a marked 'clumping' growth habit. It has thick, papery bark and displays many white flowers during spring or early summer. Although it has long been known to exist, M. densispicata was only formally described in 1984, and very little is currently known about its ecology or specific management requirements. There are only seven known subpopulations of the species across its range. A major population at the western limit of its distribution occurs on Currawinya National Park (28°52'S, 144°30'E). Here, it is locally abundant and listed as a noteworthy plant species under the Management Plan (Queensland Parks & Wildlife Service 2001). This study aimed to identify patterns in the distribution of M. densispicata in Currawinya National Park, describe its ecological niche and role, and provide management recommendations for the species within the study area. Recent anecdotal observations of recruitment failure in south-western Queensland (Peter McRae, QPWS, October 2004, pers. comm.; Dick O'Connell, local grazier, July 2005 pers. comm.) caused additional emphasis to be placed on the examination of recruitment and recruitment factors.

Modelling predicts positive and negative interactions between three Australian tropical tree species in monoculture and binary mixture

Computer modelling promises to be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The `spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/-50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Relative host plant species use by the lantana biological control agent Aconophora compressa (Membracidae) across its native and introduced ranges

Aconophora compressa Walker (Hemiptera: Membracidae) was released in 1995 against the weed lantana in Australia, and is now found on multiple host plant species. The intensity and regularity at which A. compressa uses different host species was quantified in its introduced Australian range and also its native Mexican range. In Australia, host plants fell into three statistically defined categories, as indicated by the relative rates and intensities at which they were used in the field. Fiddlewood (Citharexylum spinosum L.: Verbenaceae) was used much more regularly and at higher densities than any other host sampled, and alone made up the first group. The second group, lantana (Lantana camara L.: Verbenaceae; pink variety) and geisha girl (Duranta erecta L.: Verbenaceae), were used less regularly and at much lower densities than fiddlewood. The third group, Sheena’s gold (another variety of D. erecta), jacaranda (Jacaranda mimosifolia D. Don: Bignoniaceae) and myoporum (Myoporum acuminatum R. Br.: Myoporaceae), were used infrequently and at even lower densities. In Mexico, the insect was found at relatively low densities on all hosts relative to those in Australia. Densities were highest on L. urticifolia, D. erecta and Tecoma stans (L.) Juss. ex Kunth (Bignoniaceae), which were used at similar rates to one another. It was found also on a few other verbenaceous and non-verbenaceous host species but at even lower densities. The relative rate at which Citharexylum spp. and L. urticifolia were used could not be assessed in Mexico because A. compressa was found on only one plant of each species in areas where these host species co-occurred. The low rate at which A. compressa occurred on fiddlewood in Mexico is likely to be an artefact of the short-term nature of the surveys or differences in the suites of Citharexylum and Lantana species available there. These results provide further incentive to insist on structured and quantified surveys of non-target host use in the native range of potential biological control agents prior to host testing studies in quarantine.

Multiple host use by a sap-sucking membracid: population consequences of nymphal development on primary and secondary host plant species

Aconophora compressa is a gregarious, sap-sucking insect that uses multiple host plant species. Nymphal host plant species (and variety) significantly affected nymphal survival, nymphal development rate and the subsequent size and fecundity of adults, with fiddlewood ( Citharexylum spinosum ) being significantly best in all respects. Nymphs that developed on a relatively poor host ( Duranta erecta var “geisha girl”) and which were moved to fiddlewood as adults laid significantly fewer eggs (mean ± SE = 836 ± 130) than those that developed solely on fiddlewood (1,329 ± 105). Adults on geisha girl, regardless of having been reared as nymphs on fiddlewood or geisha girl, laid significantly fewer eggs (342 ± 83 and 317 ± 74, respectively) than adults on fiddlewood. A simple model that incorporates host plant related survival, development rate and fecundity suggests that the population dynamics of A. compressa are governed mainly by fiddlewood, the primary host. The results have general implications for understanding the population dynamics of herbivores that use multiple host plant species, and also for the way in which weed biological control host testing methods should be conducted.

Plant species diversity of buffer zones in agricultural landscapes: in search of determinants from the local to regional scale

Buffer zones are vegetated strip-edges of agricultural fields along watercourses. As linear habitats in agricultural ecosystems, buffer strips dominate and play a leading ecological role in many areas. This thesis focuses on the plant species diversity of the buffer zones in a Finnish agricultural landscape. The main objective of the present study is to identify the determinants of floral species diversity in arable buffer zones from local to regional levels. This study was conducted in a watershed area of a farmland landscape of southern Finland. The study area, Lepsämänjoki, is situated in the Nurmijärvi commune 30 km to the north of Helsinki, Finland. The biotope mosaics were mapped in GIS. A total of 59 buffer zones were surveyed, of which 29 buffer strips surveyed were also sampled by plot. Firstly, two diversity components (species richness and evenness) were investigated to determine whether the relationship between the two is equal and predictable. I found no correlation between species richness and evenness. The relationship between richness and evenness is unpredictable in a small-scale human-shaped ecosystem. Ordination and correlation analyses show that richness and evenness may result from different ecological processes, and thus should be considered separately. Species richness correlated negatively with phosphorus content, and species evenness correlated negatively with the ratio of organic carbon to total nitrogen in soil. The lack of a consistent pattern in the relationship between these two components may be due to site-specific variation in resource utilization by plant species. Within-habitat configuration (width, length, and area) were investigated to determine which is more effective for predicting species richness. More species per unit area increment could be obtained from widening the buffer strip than from lengthening it. The width of the strips is an effective determinant of plant species richness. The increase in species diversity with an increase in the width of buffer strips may be due to cross-sectional habitat gradients within the linear patches. This result can serve as a reference for policy makers, and has application value in agricultural management. In the framework of metacommunity theory, I found that both mass effect(connectivity) and species sorting (resource heterogeneity) were likely to explain species composition and diversity on a local and regional scale. The local and regional processes were interactively dominated by the degree to which dispersal perturbs local communities. In the lowly and intermediately connected regions, species sorting was of primary importance to explain species diversity, while the mass effect surpassed species sorting in the highly connected region. Increasing connectivity in communities containing high habitat heterogeneity can lead to the homogenization of local communities, and consequently, to lower regional diversity, while local species richness was unrelated to the habitat connectivity. Of all species found, Anthriscus sylvestris, Phalaris arundinacea, and Phleum pretense significantly responded to connectivity, and showed high abundance in the highly connected region. We suggest that these species may play a role in switching the force from local resources to regional connectivity shaping the community structure. On the landscape context level, the different responses of local species richness and evenness to landscape context were investigated. Seven landscape structural parameters served to indicate landscape context on five scales. On all scales but the smallest scales, the Shannon-Wiener diversity of land covers (H') correlated positively with the local richness. The factor (H') showed the highest correlation coefficients in species richness on the second largest scale. The edge density of arable field was the only predictor that correlated with species evenness on all scales, which showed the highest predictive power on the second smallest scale. The different predictive power of the factors on different scales showed a scaledependent relationship between the landscape context and local plant species diversity, and indicated that different ecological processes determine species richness and evenness. The local richness of species depends on a regional process on large scales, which may relate to the regional species pool, while species evenness depends on a fine- or coarse-grained farming system, which may relate to the patch quality of the habitats of field edges near the buffer strips. My results suggested some guidelines of species diversity conservation in the agricultural ecosystem. To maintain a high level of species diversity in the strips, a high level of phosphorus in strip soil should be avoided. Widening the strips is the most effective mean to improve species richness. Habitat connectivity is not always favorable to species diversity because increasing connectivity in communities containing high habitat heterogeneity can lead to the homogenization of local communities (beta diversity) and, consequently, to lower regional diversity. Overall, a synthesis of local and regional factors emerged as the model that best explain variations in plant species diversity. The studies also suggest that the effects of determinants on species diversity have a complex relationship with scale.

Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.

Impacts of level of utilisation by grazing on an Astrebla (Mitchell grass) grassland in north-western Queensland between 1984 and 2010. 2. Plant species richness and abundance

The occurrence of interstitial species in Astrebla grasslands in Australia are influenced by grazing and seasonal rainfall but the interactions of these two influences are complex. This paper describes three studies aimed at determining and explaining the changes in plant species richness and abundance of the interstitial species in a long-term sheep utilisation experiment in an Astrebla grassland in northern Queensland. In the first study, increasing utilisation increased the frequency of Dactyloctenium radulans (Button grass) and Brachyachne convergens (Downs couch) and reduced that of Streptoglossa adscendens (Mint bush). In the second study, seasonal rainfall variation between 1984 and 2009 resulted in large annual differences in the size of the seed banks of many species, but increasing utilisation consistently reduced the seed bank of species such as Astrebla spp. and S. adscendens and increased that of species such as B. convergens, D. radulans, Amaranthus mitchellii (Boggabri) and Boerhavia sp. (Tar vine). In the third study, the highest species richness occurred at the lightest utilisation because of the presence of a range of palatable forbs, especially legumes. Species richness was reduced as utilisation increased. Species richness in the grazing exclosure was low and similar to that at the heaviest utilisation where there was a reduction in the presence of palatable forb species. The pattern of highest species richness at the lightest grazing treatment was maintained across three sampling times, even with different amounts of seasonal rainfall, but there was a large yearly variation in both the density and frequency of many species. It was concluded that the maintenance of highest species richness at the lightest utilisation was not aligned with other data from this grazing experiment which indicated that the maximum sustainable wool production occurred at moderate utilisation.

Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.