Power Producers Trading Electricity in Both Pool and Forward Markets

The electricity industry throughout the world, which has long been dominated by vertically integrated utilities, has experienced major changes. Deregulation, unbundling, wholesale and retail wheeling, and real-time pricing were abstract concepts a few years ago. Today market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. As power markets continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches. This article addresses the challenge of maximizing the profit (or return) of power producers through the optimization of their share of customers. Power producers have fixed production marginal costs and decide the quantity of energy to sell in both day-ahead markets and a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving a three-rate tariff. Producers sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients with specific load profiles. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.

Power producers trading electricity in both pool and forward markets

The electricity industry throughout the world, which has long been dominated by vertically integrated utilities, has experienced major changes. Deregulation, unbundling, wholesale and retail wheeling, and real-time pricing were abstract concepts a few years ago. Today market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. As power markets continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches. This article addresses the challenge of maximizing the profit (or return) of power producers through the optimization of their share of customers. Power producers have fixed production marginal costs and decide the quantity of energy to sell in both day-ahead markets and a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving a three-rate tariff. Producers sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients with specific load profiles. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.

European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the influence of CO2 opportunity cost on the Spanish wholesale electricity price. Our sample includes all Phase II of the EU ETS and the first year of Phase III implementation, from January 2008 to December 2013. A vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relations, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables with air temperature and renewable energy as exogenous variables. We found a long-run relationship (cointegration) between electricity price, carbon price, and fuel prices. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result from the collapse on CO2 prices, therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

A aplicação de redes neuronais na deteção da influência do High Frequency Trading na negociação de ações (caso português)

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão da Informação

The impact of corporate social responsibility on consumer behavior: The role of profit-seeking and altruistic perceived motives

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Enhancing and implementing a pairs trading strategy

This paper designs a pairs trading model with the intent to identify existing profitable market opportunities to invest, i.e. traditionally strong correlated stocks that have diverged from its historical norm. It comprises a broad literature review on this strategy whose relevant findings (strategy improvements) are contemplated in the model. The authors combine the statistical results of the model with a backtesting analysis in order to provide guidance on the best investment opportunities.

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Pair trading: Clustering based on principal component analysis

This study focuses on the implementation of several pair trading strategies across three emerging markets, with the objective of comparing the results obtained from the different strategies and assessing if pair trading benefits from a more volatile environment. The results show that, indeed, there are higher potential profits arising from emerging markets. However, the higher excess return will be partially offset by higher transaction costs, which will be a determinant factor to the profitability of pair trading strategies. Also, a new clustering approach based on the Principal Component Analysis was tested as an alternative to the more standard clustering by Industry Groups. The new clustering approach delivers promising results, consistently reducing volatility to a greater extent than the Industry Group approach, with no significant harm to the excess returns.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

O abuso de informação privilegiada (insider trading)

In the stock market, information takes on special relevance, due to the market’s permanent updating and the great fluidity of information existent therein. Just as in any other negotiations, the party with the better information has a bargaining advantage, as it is able to make more advantageous business decisions. However, unlike most other markets, the proper functioning of the stock market is greatly dependent on investors’ trust in the market itself. As such, if there are investors who, due to any condition they possess or office they hold, have access to relevant information which is not accessible to the general public, distrust is bred within the market and, consequently, investment is lessened. Thus, there is a need to prevent those who hold privileged information from using it in abusive ways. In Portugal, abuse of privileged information is set out and punished criminally in Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code (‘Código dos Valores Mobiliários’). In this dissertation, I have set out, firstly, to analyze the inherent conditions for there to be a crime of abuse of privileged information; secondly, to analyze two well-known cases, which took place and were decided in other jurisdictions, and attempt to understand how these cases would fall under Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code. Whereas the first case, Chiarella v. United States, was scrutinize under Article 378 of the Portuguese Securities Code, in the second, Lafonta v. AMF, the conclusion arrived at was that the crime taken place was different. This analysis allowed, on one hand, the application to a particular case of prerequisites and concepts which were explained, at a first approach, from a more theoretical perspective; on the other hand, it also allowed the further development of specific aspects of the regime, namely the difference between an insider and a tipee, as well as to more clearly set out the limits to the precise character of the information at hand.

Trading the changes of stock market index composition: Evidence from European markets

This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.

Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

The trading relationship between the EU and Mercosur: the mediatory role of Brazil

Dissertação de mestrado em European and Transglobal Business Law

Energy and carbon prices: a comparison of interactions in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and the Western Climate Initiative market

We provide a comparative analysis of how short-run variations in carbon and energy prices relate to each other in the emerging greenhouse gas market in California (Western Climate Initiative [WCI], and the European Union Emission Trading Scheme [EU ETS]). We characterize the relationship between carbon, gas, coal, electricity and gasoline prices and an indicator for economic activity, and present a first analysis of carbon prices in the WCI. We also provide a comparative analysis of the structures of the two markets. We estimate a vector autoregressive model and the impulse--response functions. Our main findings show a positive impact from a carbon shock toward electricity, in both markets, but larger in the WCI electricity price, indicating more efficiency. We propose that the widening of carbon market sectors, namely fuels transport and electricity imports, may contribute to this result. To conclude, the research shows significant and coherent relations between variables in WCI, which demonstrate some degree of success for a first year in operation. Reversely, the EU ETS should complete its intended market reform, to allow for more impact of the carbon price. Finally, in both markets, there is no evidence of carbon pricing depleting economic activity.