Correlation shifts and real estate portfolio management

The success of any diversification strategy depends upon the quality of the estimated correlation between assets. It is well known, however, that there is a tendency for the average correlation among assets to increase when the market falls and vice-versa. Thus, assuming that the correlation between assets is a constant over time seems unrealistic. Nonetheless, these changes in the correlation structure as a consequence of changes in the market’s return suggests that correlation shifts can be modelled as a function of the market return. This is the idea behind the model of Spurgin et al (2000), which models the beta or systematic risk, of the asset as a function of the returns in the market. This is an approach that offers particular attractions to fund managers as it suggest ways by which they can adjust their portfolios to benefit from changes in overall market conditions. In this paper the Spurgin et al (2000) model is applied to 31 real estate market segments in the UK using monthly data over the period 1987:1 to 2000:12. The results show that a number of market segments display significant negative correlation shifts, while others show significantly positive correlation shifts. Using this information fund managers can make strategic and tactical portfolio allocation decisions based on expectations of market volatility alone and so help them achieve greater portfolio performance overall and especially during different phases of the real estate cycle.

Risk reduction and real estate portfolio size

Despite a number of papers that discuss the advantages of increased size on risk levels in real estate portfolios there is remarkably little empirical evidence based on actual portfolios. The objective of this paper is to remedy this deficiency by examining the portfolio risk of a large sample of actual property data over the period 1981 to 1996. The results show that all that can be said is that portfolios of properties of a large size, on the average, tend to have lower risks than small sized portfolios. More importantly portfolios of a few properties can have very high or very low risk.

Experience and real estate investment decision-making: a process-tracing investigation

This study investigates the impact of experience upon trained behaviours in real estate investment decision‐making. In a controlled experiment design, two groups of subjects, experts and novices, conduct an evaluation and reach a decision about two investment options. Using a process‐tracing technique, each subject’s behaviour is observed and recorded. Differences between the groups are discovered in relation to some behaviour characteristics, but experience appears not to impact all behaviours. These findings are discussed in relation to the current absence of a universal normative model of real estate investment decision‐making. In an associated component of the study, the belief that monetary compensation is needed in order to render valid results from studies such as this is tested. We find this not to be the case.

Aligning asset allocation and real estate investment: some lessons from the last cycle

Asset allocation is concerned with the development of multi--‐asset portfolio strategies that are likely to meet an investor’s objectives based on the interaction of expected returns, risk, correlation and implementation from a range of distinct asset classes or beta sources. Challenges associated with the discipline are often particularly significant in private markets. Specifically, composition differences between the ‘index’ or ‘benchmark’ universe and the investible universe mean that there can often be substantial and meaningful deviations between the investment characteristics implied in asset allocation decisions and those delivered by investment teams. For example, while allocation decisions are often based on relatively low--‐risk diversified real estate ‘equity’ exposure, implementation decisions frequently include exposure to higher risk forms of the asset class as well as investments in debt based instruments. These differences can have a meaningful impact on the contribution of the asset class to the overall portfolio and, therefore, lead to a potential misalignment between asset allocation decisions and implementation. Despite this, the key conclusion from this paper is not that real estate investors should become slaves to a narrowly defined mandate based on IPD / NCREIF or other forms of benchmark replication. The discussion suggests that such an approach would likely lead to the underutilization of real estate in multi--‐asset portfolio strategies. Instead, it is that to achieve asset allocation alignment, real estate exposure should be divided into multiple pools representing distinct forms of the asset class. In addition, the paper suggests that associated investment guidelines and processes should be collaborative and reflect the portfolio wide asset allocation objectives of each pool. Further, where appropriate they should specifically target potential for ‘additional’ beta or, more marginally, ‘alpha’.

Non-durable consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil: panel-data analysis at the state level

Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.

Price Formation and Real Estate Characteristics Residential Real Estate, Lisbon - Portugal

Análisis del proceso de formación de precios en el mercado residencial de Lisboa desde el punto de vista de la eliminación de los aspectos subjetivos de la apreciación por el tasador de las características de los inmuebles

Law of contracts simplified. An analysis of higher court decisions clarifying law of contracts, chattel mortgage and real estate law, legal status of independent contractors and patent law.

Mode of access: Internet.

Office of Banks and Real Estate annual report.

Mode of access: Internet.

[Reorganization and consolidation of the Illinois Dept. of Insurance, Illinois Office of Banks and Real Estate, Illinois Dept. of Professional Regulation, and the Illinois Dept. of Financial Institutions into the Illinois Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation]

As part of the Governor's effort to streamline State government through improvements in the efficiency and effectiveness of operations, Executive Order 2004-06 ("EO6") provided for the reorganization (consolidation) of the Department of Insurance, Office of Banks and Real Estate, Department of Professional Regulation and Department of Financial Institutions. Through EO6 the four predecessor Agencies were abolished and a single new agency, The Department of Financial and Professional Regulation (hereafter referred to as "IDFPR") was created. The purpose of the consolidation of the four regulatory agencies was to allow for certain economies of scale to be realized primarily within the executive management and administrative functions. Additionally, the consolidation would increases the effectiveness of operations through the integration of certain duplicative functions within the four predecessor agencies without the denegration of the frontline functions. Beginning on or about July 1, 2004, the IDFPR began consolidation activities focusing primarily on the administrative functions of Executive Management, Fiscal and Accounting, General Counsel, Human Resources, Information Technology and Other Administrative Services. The underlying premise of the reorganization was that all improvements could be accomplished without the denegration of the frontline functions of the predecessor agencies. Accordingly, all powers, duties, rights, responsibilities and functions of the predecessor agencies migrated to IDFPR and the reorganization activities commenced July 1, 2004.

Maine occupational staffing for selected nonmanufacturing industries : mining, construction, finance, insurance, and real estate services, except hospitals and education : data for second quarter 1990 /

"Issued July 1992."

Maine occupational staffing for selected nonmanufacturing industries : construction, finance, insurance, and real estate services, except hospitals and education : data for second quarter 1993 /

"Issued December 1994."

Essays on city size distribution and real estate bubbles

This is a dissertation about urban systems; within this broad subject I tackle three issues, one that focuses on an observed inter-city relationship and two that focus on an intra-city phenomenon. In Chapter II I adapt a model of random emergence of economic opportunities from the firm growth literature to the urban dynamics situation and present several predictions for urban system dynamics. One of these predictions is that the older the city the larger and more diversified it is going to be on average, which I proceed to verify empirically using two distinct datasets. In Chapter III I analyze the Residential Real Estate Bubble that took place in Miami-Dade County from 1999 to 2006. I adopt a Spatial-Economic model developed for the Paris Bubble episode of 1984–1993 and formulate an innovative test of the results in terms of speculative intensity on the basis of proxies of investor activity available in my dataset. My results support the idea that the best or more expensive areas are also where the greatest speculative activity takes place and where the rapid increase in prices begins. The most significant departure from previous studies that emerges in my results is the absence of a wider gap between high priced areas and low priced areas in the peak year. I develop a measure of dispersion in value among areas and contrast the Miami-Dade and Paris episodes. In Chapter IV I analyze the impact on tax equity of a Florida tax-limiting legislation known as Save Our Homes. I first compare homesteaded and non-homesteaded properties, and second, look within the subset of homesteaded properties. I find that non-homesteaded properties increase their share of taxes paid relative to homesteaded properties during an up market, but that this is reversed during a down market. For the subset of homesteaded properties I find that the impact on tax equity of SOH will depend on differential growth rates among higher and lower valued homes, but during times of rapid home price appreciation, in a scenario of no differential growth rates in property values, SOH increases progressivity relative to the prior system.

Turismo y negocio inmobiliario: la crisis de un modelo de desarrollo. Tres estudios de casos de Canadá, Argentina y España

La vinculación del negocio turístico-inmobiliario con las migraciones por amenidad o por estilos de vida tiende a incubar problemas de racionalidad que, además de los ligados a la falta de sustentabilidad ambiental, acaban por volver inviable la lógica socio-económica del proceso. Para ilustrar este argumento se propone una reflexión crítica basada en la experiencia de lo acontecido en tres regiones del mundo en las que el desarrollo del modo de producción inmobiliario -basado en la captación y promoción de los tipos de movilidad residencial orientados por la búsqueda de experiencias de ocio- ha promovido efectos regresivos en relación al desarrollo local: las áreas montañosas del Oeste de Canadá, la Norpatagonia, en Argentina, y el sudeste de España, con atención a la provincia de Alicante. El artículo indaga en la falta de sustentabilidad de un modelo de desarrollo basado en el negocio turístico-inmobiliario; al tiempo que identifica patrones comunes y diferencias entre los casos analizados.