Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? : evidence from a large currency devaluation episode

Duas classes de modelos buscam explicar o padrão de ajustamento de preço das firmas: modelos tempo-dependente e estado-dependente. O objetivo deste trabalho é levantar algumas evidencias empíricas de modo a distinguir os modelos, ou seja, identificar de que maneira as firmas realmente precificam. Para isso, escolheu-se a grande desvalorização cambial de 1999 como principal ferramenta e ambiente de análise. A hipótese fundamental é que o choque cambial impacta significativamente o custo de algumas indústrias, em alguns casos induzindo-as a alterarem seus preço após o choque. A partir de uma imensa base de micro dados formada por preços que compõem o CPI, algumas estimações importantes como a probabilidade e a magnitude média das trocas foram levantadas. A magnitude é dada por uma média simples, enquanto a probabilidade é estimada pelo método da máxima verossimilhança. Os resultados indicam um comportamento de precificação similar ao proposto por modelos estado-dependente.

Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms’ response to inflation shocks

This paper proposes a test for distinguishing between time-dependent and state-dependent pricing based on whether the timing of pricing changes is affected by realized or expeted inflation. Using Brazilian data and exploring a large discrepancy between realized and expected inflation in 2002-3, we obtain a strong relation between expected inflation and duration of price spells, but little effect of inflation shocks on the frequency of price adjustment. The results thus support models with timedependent pricing, where the timing for following changes is optimally chosen whenever firms adjust prices

Spinal cord injury: assessment of autonomic state-dependent control of cardiovascular system and body core temperature

Spinal cord injury (SCI) results not only in paralysis; but it is also associated with a range of autonomic dysregulation that can interfere with cardiovascular, bladder, bowel, temperature, and sexual function. The entity of the autonomic dysfunction is related to the level and severity of injury to descending autonomic (sympathetic) pathways. For many years there was limited awareness of these issues and the attention given to them by the scientific and medical community was scarce. Yet, even if a new system to document the impact of SCI on autonomic function has recently been proposed, the current standard of assessment of SCI (American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) examination) evaluates motor and sensory pathways, but not severity of injury to autonomic pathways. Beside the severe impact on quality of life, autonomic dysfunction in persons with SCI is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Therefore, obtaining information regarding autonomic function in persons with SCI is pivotal and clinical examinations and laboratory evaluations to detect the presence of autonomic dysfunction and quantitate its severity are mandatory. Furthermore, previous studies demonstrated that there is an intimate relationship between the autonomic nervous system and sleep from anatomical, physiological, and neurochemical points of view. Although, even if previous epidemiological studies demonstrated that sleep problems are common in spinal cord injury (SCI), so far only limited polysomnographic (PSG) data are available. Finally, until now, circadian and state dependent autonomic regulation of blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR) and body core temperature (BcT) were never assessed in SCI patients. Aim of the current study was to establish the association between the autonomic control of the cardiovascular function and thermoregulation, sleep parameters and increased cardiovascular risk in SCI patients.

Impulsive Partial Hyperbolic Functional Differential Equations of Fractional Order with State-Dependent Delay

MSC 2010: 26A33, 34A37, 34K37, 34K40, 35R11

A rate and state friction law for saline ice

Sea ice friction models are necessary to predict the nature of interactions between sea ice floes. These interactions are of interest on a range of scales, for example, to predict loads on engineering structures in icy waters or to understand the basin-scale motion of sea ice. Many models use Amonton's friction law due to its simplicity. More advanced models allow for hydrodynamic lubrication and refreezing of asperities; however, modeling these processes leads to greatly increased complexity. In this paper we propose, by analogy with rock physics, that a rate- and state-dependent friction law allows us to incorporate memory (and thus the effects of lubrication and bonding) into ice friction models without a great increase in complexity. We support this proposal with experimental data on both the laboratory (∼0.1 m) and ice tank (∼1 m) scale. These experiments show that the effects of static contact under normal load can be incorporated into a friction model. We find the parameters for a first-order rate and state model to be A = 0.310, B = 0.382, and μ0 = 0.872. Such a model then allows us to make predictions about the nature of memory effects in moving ice-ice contacts.

Wide localized solitons in systems with time- and space-modulated nonlinearities

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Wide vector solitons in systems with time- and space-modulated nonlinearities

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The sequence of addition of IL-3 and IgE-dependent/IgE-independent stimuli regulates RANKL expression in human basophils

Background: Receptor Activator of Nuclear Factor kappaB Ligand (RANKL), a member of the TNF superfamily, contributes to the imbalance of bone resorption and immunoregulation in rheumatoid arthritis. In mice, collagen induced arthritis was exacerbated by IL-3 and anti-IgER antibodies, two mediators activating basophils that are known as effector cells of allergy. Interestingly, our unpublished microarray data revealed that IL-3 induces RANKL mRNA in human basophils. Here we further investigate under which conditions human basophils express surface and/or soluble RANKL. Methods: One part of purified human basophils was co-stimulated with IL-3 and either IgE-dependent or IgE-independent stimuli. The other part of purified basophils was first primed with IL-3 and subsequently triggered with IgE-dependent or IgE-independent stimuli. Expression of surface and soluble RANKL were detected by flow cytometry, ELISA and real-time PCR. Results: By flow cytometry we show that IL-3 induces de novo expression of surface RANKL on human basophils in a time and dose dependent manner. Co-stimulation of basophils with IL-3 and an IgE-dependent stimulus reduces IL-3-induced expression of surface RANKL in a dose dependent manner while IgE-independent stimuli have no effect. In contrast, both IgE-dependent and IgE-independent stimuli enhance expression of surface and soluble RANKL in basophils that were first primed with IL-3 and then triggered. Real-time PCR analysis shows that surface hRANKL1 and soluble hRANKL3 are induced by IL-3 and reduced by co-stimulation with IL-3 and an IgE-dependent stimulus and thus confirms our flow cytometry data. Conclusion: RANKL expression in human basophils is not only dependent on IL-3 and IgE-dependent/IgE-independent stimuli but also on the sequence of their addition to cell culture. Based on our data, we suggest that basophils might have previously unidentified functions in bone resorption or immunoregulation via RANKL.

Endogenous time-dependent rules and inflation inertia: preliminary version

When policy rules are changed, the effect of nominal rigidities should be modelled through endogenous pricing rules. We endogenize Taylor (1979) type pricing rule to examine the output effects of monetary disinflations. We derive optimal fixed-price time-dependent rules in inflationary steady states and during disinflations. We also develop a methodology to aggregate individual pricing rules which vary through disinflation. This allows us to reevaluate the output costs of monetary disinflation, including aspects as the role of the initial leveI of inflation and the importance of the degree of credibility of the policy change.

Endogenous time-dependent rules and the costs of disinflation with imperfect credibility

This paper examines the output effects of monetary disinflation in a model with endogenous time-dependent pricing rules and imperfect credibility of the disinflation policy. We find that these features interact to generate an additional effect on top f the ones obtained with either endogenous time-dependent rules (Bonomo and Carvalho, 2003) or imperfect credibility (Ball, 1995) in isolation. This results in higher output costs of monetary disinflation.

Markovian bulk-arriving queues with state-dependent control at idle time

This paper considers a Markovian bulk-arriving queue modified to allow both mass arrivals when the queue is idle and mass departures which allow for the possibility of removing the entire workload. Properties of queues which terminate when the server becomes idle are developed first, since these play a key role in later developments. Results for the case of mass arrivals, but no mass annihilation, are then constructed with specific attention being paid to recurrence properties, equilibrium queue-size structure, and waiting-time distribution. A closed-form expression for the expected queue size and its Laplace transform are also established. All of these results are then generalised to allow for the removal of the entire workload, with closed-form expressions being developed for the equilibrium size and waiting-time distributions.

An ontological characterization of time-series and state-sequences for data mining

Time-series and sequences are important patterns in data mining. Based on an ontology of time-elements, this paper presents a formal characterization of time-series and state-sequences, where a state denotes a collection of data whose validation is dependent on time. While a time-series is formalized as a vector of time-elements temporally ordered one after another, a state-sequence is denoted as a list of states correspondingly ordered by a time-series. In general, a time-series and a state-sequence can be incomplete in various ways. This leads to the distinction between complete and incomplete time-series, and between complete and incomplete state-sequences, which allows the expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge in data mining.

State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters shows a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time variation in the bias by making the loss function depend on the state of the economy. The asymmetry parameter in the loss function is specified to depend on set state variables which may cause forecaster to intentionally bias their forecasts. We consider both the Lin–Ex and asymmetric power loss functions. For the commonly used Lin–Ex and Lin–Lin loss functions, we show the model can be easily estimated by least squares. We apply our methodology to the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find that forecast uncertainty has an asymmetric effect on the asymmetry parameter in the loss function dependent upon whether the economy is in expansion or contraction. When the economy is in expansion, forecaster uncertainty is related to an overprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. In contrast, when the economy is in contraction, forecaster uncertainty is related to an underprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. Our results are robust to the particular loss function that is employed in the analysis.

Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from a large devaluation episode

State-dependent and time-dependent price setting models yield distinct implications for how frequency and magnitude of price changes react to shocks. This note studies pricing behavior in Brazil following the large devaluation of the Brazilian Real in 1999 to distinguish between models. The results are consistent with state-dependent pricing