A Predictive Thermal Habitat Model for Harbor Seals in the Northwest Atlantic

We analyzed projections of current and future ambient temperatures along the eastern United States in relationship to the thermal tolerance of harbor seals in air. Using the earth systems model (HadGEM2-ES) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, which are indicative of two different atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we were able to examine possible shifts in distribution based on three metrics: current preferences, the thermal limit of juveniles, and the thermal limits of adults. Our analysis focused on average ambient temperatures because harbor seals are least effective at regulating their body temperature in air, making them most susceptible to rising air temperatures in the coming years. Our study focused on the months of May, June, and August from 2041-2060 (2050) and 2061-2080 (2070) as these are the historic months in which harbor seals are known to annually come ashore to pup, breed, and molt. May, June, and August are also some of the warmest months of the year. We found that breeding colonies along the eastern United States will be limited by the thermal tolerance of juvenile harbor seals in air, while their foraging range will extend as far south as the thermal tolerance of adult harbor seals in air. Our analysis revealed that in 2070, harbor seal pups should be absent from the United States coastline nearing the end of the summer due to exceptionally high air temperatures.

CHARACTERIZATION AND THERMAL-HYDRAULIC MODELING OF ENGINEERED BARRIERS FOR A CANADIAN DEEP GEOLOGICAL REPOSITORY FOR USED NUCLEAR FUEL

Within Canada there are more than 2.5 million bundles of spent nuclear fuel with another approximately 2 million bundles to be generated in the future. Canada, and every country around the world that has taken a decision on management of spent nuclear fuel, has decided on long-term containment and isolation of the fuel within a deep geological repository. At depth, a deep geological repository consists of a network of placement rooms where the bundles will be located within a multi-layered system that incorporates engineered and natural barriers. The barriers will be placed in a complex thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical-biological (THMCB) environment. A large database of material properties for all components in the repository are required to construct representative models. Within the repository, the sealing materials will experience elevated temperatures due to the thermal gradient produced by radioactive decay heat from the waste inside the container. Furthermore, high porewater pressure due to the depth of repository along with possibility of elevated salinity of groundwater would cause the bentonite-based materials to be under transient hydraulic conditions. Therefore it is crucial to characterize the sealing materials over a wide range of thermal-hydraulic conditions. A comprehensive experimental program has been conducted to measure properties (mainly focused on thermal properties) of all sealing materials involved in Mark II concept at plausible thermal-hydraulic conditions. The thermal response of Canada’s concept for a deep geological repository has been modelled using experimentally measured thermal properties. Plausible scenarios are defined and the effects of these scenarios are examined on the container surface temperature as well as the surrounding geosphere to assess whether they meet design criteria for the cases studied. The thermal response shows that if all the materials even being at dried condition, repository still performs acceptably as long as sealing materials remain in contact.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers' consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

A time-domain method for the analysis of thermal impedance response preserving the convolution form

The study of the thermal behavior of complex packages as multichip modules (MCM¿s) is usually carried out by measuring the so-called thermal impedance response, that is: the transient temperature after a power step. From the analysis of this signal, the thermal frequency response can be estimated, and consequently, compact thermal models may be extracted. We present a method to obtain an estimate of the time constant distribution underlying the observed transient. The method is based on an iterative deconvolution that produces an approximation to the time constant spectrum while preserving a convenient convolution form. This method is applied to the obtained thermal response of a microstructure as analyzed by finite element method as well as to the measured thermal response of a transistor array integrated circuit (IC) in a SMD package.

Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion

A suite of climate model experiments indicates that 20th Century increases in ocean heat content and sea-level ( via thermal expansion) were substantially reduced by the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The volcanically-induced cooling of the ocean surface is subducted into deeper ocean layers, where it persists for decades. Temporary reductions in ocean heat content associated with the comparable eruptions of El Chichon ( 1982) and Pinatubo ( 1991) were much shorter lived because they occurred relative to a non-stationary background of large, anthropogenically-forced ocean warming. Our results suggest that inclusion of the effects of Krakatoa ( and perhaps even earlier eruptions) is important for reliable simulation of 20th century ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. Inter-model differences in the oceanic thermal response to Krakatoa are large and arise from differences in external forcing, model physics, and experimental design. Systematic experimentation is required to quantify the relative importance of these factors. The next generation of historical forcing experiments may require more careful treatment of pre-industrial volcanic aerosol loadings.

Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium - an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e. g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Polytomous item response theory models

Polytomous Item Response Theory Models provides a unified, comprehensive introduction to the range of polytomous models available within item response theory (IRT). It begins by outlining the primary structural distinction between the two major types of polytomous IRT models. This focuses on the two types of response probability that are unique to polytomous models and their associated response functions, which are modeled differently by the different types of IRT model. It describes, both conceptually and mathematically, the major specific polytomous models, including the Nominal Response Model, the Partial Credit Model, the Rating Scale model, and the Graded Response Model. Important variations, such as the Generalized Partial Credit Model are also described as are less common variations, such as the Rating Scale version of the Graded Response Model. Relationships among the models are also investigated and the operation of measurement information is described for each major model. Practical examples of major models using real data are provided, as is a chapter on choosing an appropriate model. Figures are used throughout to illustrate important elements as they are described.

Towards cryogenic liquid –vapor energy storage units for space applications

Dissertation to obtain the Doctoral degree in Physics Engineering

The influence of nitrogen and oxygen additions on the thermal characteristics of aluminium-based thin films

The ternary aluminium oxynitride (AlNxOy) system offers the possibility to obtain a wide range of properties by tailoring the ratio between pure Al, AlNx and AlOy and therefore opening a significant number of possible applications. In this work the thermal behaviour of AlNxOy thin films was analysed by modulated infrared radiometry (MIRR), taking as reference the binary AlOy and AlNx systems. MIRR is a non-contact and non-destructive thermal wave measurement technique based on the excitation, propagation and detection of temperature oscillations of very small amplitudes. The intended change of the partial pressure of the reactive gas (N2 and/or O2) influenced the target condition and hence the deposition characteristics which, altogether, affected the composition and microstructure of the films. Based on the MIRR measurements and their qualitative and quantitative interpretation, some correlations between the thermal transport properties of the films and their chemical/physical properties have been found. Furthermore, the potential of such technique applied in this oxynitride system, which present a wide range of different physical responses, is also discussed. The experimental results obtained are consistent with those reported in previous works and show a high potential to fulfil the demands needed for the possible applications of the systems studied. They are clearly indicative of an adequate thermal response if this particular thin film system is aimed to be applied in small sensor devices or in electrodes for biosignal acquisition, such as those for electroencephalography or electromyography as it is the case of the main research area that is being developed in the group.

Simulating maize phenology as a function of air temperature with a linear and a nonlinear model

The objective of this study was to adapt a nonlinear model (Wang and Engel - WE) for simulating the phenology of maize (Zea mays L.), and to evaluate this model and a linear one (thermal time), in order to predict developmental stages of a field-grown maize variety. A field experiment, during 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 was conducted in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, in two growing seasons, with seven sowing dates each. Dates of emergence, silking, and physiological maturity of the maize variety BRS Missões were recorded in six replications in each sowing date. Data collected in 2005/2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models, and data collected in the 2006/2007 growing season were used as independent data set for model evaluations. The nonlinear WE model accurately predicted the date of silking and physiological maturity, and had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the linear (thermal time) model. The overall RMSE for silking and physiological maturity was 2.7 and 4.8 days with WE model, and 5.6 and 8.3 days with thermal time model, respectively.

Modeling of Pressurizer Using APROS and TRACE Thermal Hydraulic Codes

Diplomityön tavoitteena on paineistimen yksityiskohtainen mallintaminen APROS- ja TRACE- termohydrauliikkaohjelmistoja käyttäen. Rakennetut paineistinmallit testattiin vertaamalla laskentatuloksia paineistimen täyttymistä, tyhjentymistä ja ruiskutusta käsittelevistä erilliskokeista saatuun mittausdataan. Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena on APROSin paineistinmallin validoiminen käyttäen vertailuaineistona PACTEL ATWS-koesarjan sopivia paineistinkokeita sekä MIT Pressurizer- ja Neptunus- erilliskokeita. Lisäksi rakennettiin malli Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen paineistimesta, jota käytettiin turbiinitrippitransientin simulointiin tarkoituksena selvittää mahdolliset voimalaitoksen ja koelaitteistojen mittakaavaerosta johtuvat vaikutukset APROSin paineistinlaskentaan. Kokeiden simuloinnissa testattiin erilaisia noodituksia ja mallinnusvaihtoehtoja, kuten entalpian ensimmäisen ja toisen kertaluvun diskretisointia, ja APROSin sekä TRACEn antamia tuloksia vertailtiin kattavasti toisiinsa. APROSin paineistinmallin lämmönsiirtokorrelaatioissa havaittiin merkittävä puute ja laskentatuloksiin saatiin huomattava parannus ottamalla käyttöön uusi seinämälauhtumismalli. Työssä tehdyt TRACE-simulaatiot ovat osa United States Nuclear Regulatory Commissionin kansainvälistä CAMP-koodinkehitys-ja validointiohjelmaa.