Financial Sector Development and Integration in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: Towards a long-term sustainable transition. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 7, April 2013

This MEDPRO Policy Paper examines the trends and prospects in financial-sector development and integration in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries and concludes with an agenda for a long-term sustainable transition where finance turns to be a positive stimulus to long-term growth.

Cyclic variability of the circumstellar disk of the Be star zeta Tauri I. Long-term monitoring observations

Context. Emission lines formed in decretion disks of Be stars often undergo long-term cyclic variations, especially in the violet-to-red (V/R) ratio of their primary components. The underlying structural and dynamical variations of the disks are only partly understood. From observations of the bright Be-shell star. Tau, the possibly broadest and longest data set illustrating the prototype of this behaviour was compiled from our own and archival observations. It comprises optical and infrared spectra, broad-band polarimetry, and interferometric observations. Aims. The dense, long-time monitoring permits a better separation of repetitive and ephemeral variations. The broad wavelength coverage includes lines formed under different physical conditions, i.e. different locations in the disk, so that the dynamics can be probed throughout much of the disk. Polarimetry and interferometry constrain the spatial structure. All together, the objective is a better understand the dynamics and life cycle of decretion disks. Methods. Standard methods of data acquisition, reduction, and analysis were applied. Results. From 3 V/R cycles between 1997 and 2008, a mean cycle length in Ha of 1400-1430 days was derived. After each minimum in V/R, the shell absorption weakens and splits into two components, leading to 3 emission peaks. This phase may make the strongest contribution to the variability in cycle length. There is no obvious connection between the V/R cycle and the 133-day orbital period of the not otherwise detected companion. V/R curves of different lines are shifted in phase. Lines formed on average closer to the central star are ahead of the others. The shell absorption lines fall into 2 categories differing in line width, ionization/excitation potential, and variability of the equivalent width. They seem to form in separate regions of the disk, probably crossing the line of sight at different times. The interferometry has resolved the continuum and the line emission in Br gamma and HeI 2.06. The phasing of the Br gamma emission shows that the photocenter of the line-emitting region lies within the plane of the disk but is offset from the continuum source. The plane of the disk is constant throughout the observed V/R cycles. The observations lay the foundation for the fully self-consistent, one-armed, disk-oscillation model developed in Paper II.

Constitutive model for long term municipal solid waste mechanical behavior

This paper presents some improvements in the model proposed by Machado et al. [Machado SL, Carvalho MF, Vilar OM. Constitutive model for municipal solid waste. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 2002; 128(11):940-51] now considering the influence of biodegradation of organic matter in the mechanical behavior of municipal solid waste. The original framework considers waste as composed of two component groups; fibers and organic paste. The particular laws of behavior are assessed for each component group and then coupled to represent waste behavior. The improvements introduced in this paper take into account the changes in the properties of fibers and mass loss due to organic matter depletion over time. Mass loss is indirectly calculated considering the MSW gas generation potential through a first order decay model. It is shown that as the biodegradation process occurs the proportion of fibers increases, however, they also undergo a degradation process which tends to reduce their ultimate tensile stress and Young modulus. The way these changes influence the behavior of MSW is incorporated in the final framework which captures the main features of the MSW stress-strain behavior under different loading conditions. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-term experimental data of drying shrinkage of ground granulated blast-furnace slag cement concrete

This paper presents results of laboratory testing of unrestrained drying shrinkage during a period of 154 days of different concrete mixtures from the Brazilian production line that utilize ground granulated blast-furnace slag in their compositions. Three concrete mixtures with water/cement ratio of 0.78(M1), 0.41(M2), and 0.37(M3) were studied. The obtained experimental data were compared with the analytical results from prediction models available in the literature: the ACI 209 model (ACI), the B3 model (B3), the Eurocode 2 model (EC2), the GL 2000 model (GL), and the Brazilian NBR 6118 model (NBR), and an analysis of the efficacy of these models was conducted utilizing these experimental data. In addition, the development of the mechanical properties (compressive strength and modulus of elasticity) of the studied concrete mixtures was also measured in the laboratory until 126 days. From this study, it could be concluded that the ACI and the GL were the models that most approximated the experimental drying shrinkage data measured during the analyzed period of time.

Long-term aging of fiber-cement corrugated sheets - The effect of carbonation, leaching and acid rain

This paper studies the performance of fiber-cement corrugated sheets exposed to long-term weathering, exploring the effect of different environments on fiber-cement degradation. Fiber-cement corrugated sheets that had been exposed to weathering, and in place for more than 30-years, were collected from two different Brazilian cities (Sao Paulo and Criciuma). Mechanical properties (MOR, MOE and fracture toughness) were tested on samples removed from the corrugated sheets. Microstructure was evaluated by X-ray diffraction, SEM with EDS analysis, MIP and TG. The results show that the 37-year-old asbestos-cement corrugated sheets from Sao Paulo presented similar characteristics to those of the non-aged asbestos-cement readily available on the market place. Conversely, deterioration of the asbestos-cement from the industrial area of Criciuma is related to acidic attack, along with carbonation and leaching as a consequence of continued exposition to acid rain during several decades. This process resulted in higher porosity and lower mechanical strength, revealing that leaching mechanisms can have important effect on the performance of thin fiber-cement sheets. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the effects of early silvicultural management on long-term site productivity of fast-growing eucalypt plantations: the Brazilian experience

Eucalyptus is the dominant and most productive planted forest in Brazil, covering around 3.4 million ha for the production of charcoal, pulp, sawtimber, timber plates, wood foils, plywood and for building purposes. At the early establishment of the forest plantations, during the second half of the 1960s, the eucalypt yield was 10 m(3) ha(-1) y(-1). Now, as a result of investments in research and technology, the average productivity is 38 m3 ha(-1) y(-1). The productivity restrictions are related to the following environmental factors, in order of importance: water deficits > nutrient deficiency > soil depth and strength. The clonal forests have been fundamental in sites with larger water and nutrient restrictions, where they out-perform those established from traditional seed-based planting stock. When the environmental limitations are small the productivities of plantations based on clones or seeds appear to be similar. In the long term there are risks to sustainability, because of the low fertility and low reserves of primary minerals in the soils, which are, commonly, loamy and clayey oxisols and ultisols. Usually, a decline of soil quality is caused by management that does not conserve soil and site resources, damages soil physical and chemical characteristics, and insufficient or unbalanced fertiliser management. The problem is more serious when fast-growing genotypes are planted, which have a high nutrient demand and uptake capacity, and therefore high nutrient output through harvesting. The need to mobilise less soil by providing more cover and protection, reduce the nutrient and organic matter losses, preserve crucial physical properties as permeability ( root growth, infiltration and aeration), improve weed control and reduce costs has led to a progressive increase in the use of minimum cultivation practices during the last 20 years, which has been accepted as a good alternative to keep or increase site quality in the long term. In this paper we provide a synthesis and critical appraisal of the research results and practical implications of early silvicultural management on long-term site productivity of fast-growing eucalypt plantations arising from the Brazilian context.

Long-term clozapine treatment identifies significant improvements in clinical and functioning scales

The majority of clinical drug trials only cover a small number of variables over a short period of time on a small group of people. The objective of this study was to track a large group of people over a long period of time, using a diverse range of variables with a naturalistic design to assess the ‘real world’ use of clozapine. Fifty-three people with treatment-resistant schizophrenia were recruited into a 2-year study which assessed the subjects using the following scales: Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Clinical Global Impression Scale (CGI), Life Skills Profile (LSP), and Role Functioning Scale (RFS). Discharge, leave, and ward movement rates were also monitored. All subjects were inpatients at a tertiary psychiatric facility. Thirty-three percent of the group was discharged. Seventythree percent moved to less cost-intensive wards, and the leave rate increased by 105”/0. Sixty-seven percent of the study group were identified as responders by the 24-month time point. Twenty-four percent of the group had their CGI scores reduced to 2 or better 0, =O.OOOl). Significant improvements were identified in the RFS (p = 0.02) and LSP (p = 0.0001). Long-term clozapine treatment has identified a significant group of responders on a variety of measures.

On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Histological features of acute tubular necrosis in native kidneys and long-term renal function

There are few studies on the relationship between the morphology of acute tubular necrosis (ATN) in native kidneys and late functional recovery. Eighteen patients with acute renal failure (ARF) who had undergone renal biopsy were studied. All had the histological diagnosis of ATN and were followed for at least six months. Clinical characteristics of ARF were analyzed, and histological features were semi-quantitatively evaluated (tubular atrophy, interstitial inflammatory infiltrate, interstitial fibrosis, and ATN). According to the maximal GFR achieved during the follow-up, patients were divided into two groups: complete recovery (GFR >= 90 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) and partial recovery (GFR < 90 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Only 39% of the patients achieved complete recovery. Patients with partial recovery achieved their maximal GFR (63 +/- 9 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) 37 +/- 14 months after ARF, a period of time similar to those patients with complete recovery (i.e., 54 +/- 22 months). Patients with partial recovery had more severe ARF: oliguria was more frequent (90 versus 17%, p < 0.01), and they had higher peak creatinine (13.85 +/- 1.12 versus 8.95 +/- 1.30 mg/dL, p = 0.01), and longer hospitalization (45 +/- 7 versus 20 +/- 4 days, p = 0.03). No single histological parameter was associated with partial recovery, but the sum of all was when expressed as an injury index [4.00 (2.73-5.45) versus 2.00 (1.25-3.31), p < 0.05]. In conclusion, among patients with atypical ATN course, those with more severe ARF and tubule-interstitial lesions are more prone to partial recovery.

Evaluation of molar teeth and buds in patients submitted to mandible distraction: Long-term results

Background: Despite all benefits offered by mandible distraction, complications and long-term consequences need to be evaluated to define its safety and morbidity. Forty mandible distractions were studied. Panoramic mandible radiographs obtained preoperatively, during distraction, and during the postoperative period were reviewed, with the intention of evaluating development and complications of molar buds and teeth in the distraction area. Methods: The mean patient age was 8.1 years. Twenty-five patients had craniofacial microsomia (one associated with a no. 10 facial cleft), five had temporomandibular joint ankylosis, two had familiar cases of auriculocondylar syndrome, one had a Tessier no. 30 facial cleft, and one had Treacher Collins syndrome. The severity of mandible hypoplasia was Pruzansky grade I in four cases, grade IIA in eight cases, grade 1113 in 16 cases, and grade III in one case. Mean radiographic follow-up was 44.8 months. Results: Molar buds located in the distraction area erupted without any deformity or displacement in 18 sides (45 percent). Fourteen cases presented distalization of a dental bud to a superior position in the mandibular ramus (four migrated back to the original position). Six molar buds presented perforations, four had shape deformities (two caused by dental fracture), and two had dental root injuries followed by root absorption lately. One case developed a dentigerous cyst. Conclusions: Almost half of the patients did not have any molar bud or tooth alterations after mandible distraction, and more than 20 percent presented only bud distalization. Therefore, preventive bud enucleation or tooth extraction should be avoided before mandible distraction.