The hype cycle model: A review and future directions

The hype cycle model traces the evolution of technological innovations as they pass through successive stages pronounced by the peak, disappointment, and recovery of expectations. Since its introduction by Gartner nearly two decades ago, the model has received growing interest from practitioners, and more recently from scholars. Given the model's proclaimed capacity to forecast technological development, an important consideration for organizations in formulating marketing strategies, this paper provides a critical review of the hype cycle model by seeking evidence from Gartner's own technology databases for the manifestation of hype cycles. The results of our empirical work show incongruences connected with the reports of Gartner, which motivates us to consider possible future directions, whereby the notion of hype or hyped dynamics (though not necessarily the hype cycle model itself) can be captured in existing life cycle models through the identification of peak, disappointment, and recovery patterns.

An analysis of factors improving technology roadmap credibility: A communications theory assessment of roadmapping processes

In recent years, many industrial firms have been able to use roadmapping as an effective process methodology for projecting future technology and for coordinating technology planning and strategy. Firms potentially realize a number of benefits in deploying technology roadmapping (TRM) processes. Roadmaps provide information identifying which new technologies will meet firms' future product demands, allowing companies to leverage R&D investments through choosing appropriately out of a range of alternative technologies. Moreover, the roadmapping process serves an important communication tool helping to bring about consensus among roadmap developers, as well as between participants brought in during the development process, who may communicate their understanding of shared corporate goals through the roadmap. However, there are few conceptual accounts or case studies have made the argument that roadmapping processes may be used effectively as communication tools. This paper, therefore, seeks to elaborate a theoretical foundation for identifying the factors that must be considered in setting up a roadmap and for analyzing the effect of these factors on technology roadmap credibility as perceived by its users. Based on the survey results of 120 different R&D units, this empirical study found that firms need to explore further how they can enable frequent interactions between the TRM development team and TRM participants. A high level of interaction will improve the credibility of a TRM, with communication channels selected by the organization also positively affecting TRM credibility. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

An integrated service-device-technology roadmap for smart city development

Firms and other organizations use Technology Roadmapping (TRM) extensively as a framework for supporting research and development of future technologies and products that could sustain a competitive advantage. While the importance of technology strategy has received more attention in recent years, few research studies have examined how roadmapping processes are used to explore the potential convergence of products and services that may be developed in the future. The aim of this paper is to introduce an integrated roadmapping process for services, devices and technologies capable of implementing a smart city development R&D project in Korea. The paper applies a QFD (Quality Function Deployment) method to establish interconnections between services and devices, and between devices and technologies. The method is illustrated by a detailed case study, which shows how different types of roadmap can be coordinated with each other to produce a clear representation of the technological changes and uncertainties associated with the strategic planning of complex innovations. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability

We quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to support energy policy. Empirical review shows that early adopters are heterogeneous motivated by financial benefits, environmental appeal, new technology, and vehicle reliability. A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters. For early adopters full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are competitive but unable to surpass diesels or hybrids due to purchase price premium and lack of charging availability. For mass adoption, simulations indicate that if the purchase price premium of a BEV closes to within 20% of an in-class internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, combined with a 60% increase in refuelling availability relative to the incumbent system, BEVs become competitive. But this depends on a mass market that values the fuel economy and CO2 reduction benefits associated with BEVs. We also find that the largest influence on early adoption is financial benefit rather than pro-environmental behaviour suggesting that AFVs should be marketed by appealing to economic benefits combined with pro-environmental behaviour to motivate adoption. Monte Carlo simulations combined with scenarios can give insight into diffusion dynamics for other energy demand-side technologies. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Key principles for developing industrially relevant strategic technology management toolkits

When considering the potential uptake and utilization of technology management tools by industry, it must be recognized that companies face the difficult challenges of selecting, adopting and integrating individual tools into a toolkit that must be implemented within their current organizational processes and systems. This situation is compounded by the lack of sound advice on integrating well-founded individual tools into a robust toolkit that has the necessary degree of flexibility such that they can be tailored for application to specific problems faced by individual organizations. As an initial stepping stone to offering a toolkit with empirically proven utility, this paper provides a conceptual foundation to the development of toolkits by outlining an underlying philosophical position based on observations from multiple research and commercial collaborations with industry. This stance is underpinned by a set of operationalized principles that can offer guidance to organizations when deciding upon the appropriate form, functions and features that should be embodied by any potential tool/toolkit. For example, a key objective of any tool is to aid decision-making and a core set of powerful, flexible, scaleable and modular tools should be sufficient to allow users to generate, explore, shape and implement possible solutions across a wide array of strategic issues. From our philosophical stance, the preferred mode of engagement is facilitated workshops with a participatory process that enables multiple perspectives and structures the conversation through visual representations in order to manage the cognitive load in the collaborative environment. The generic form of the tools should be configurable for the given context and utilized in a lightweight manner based on the premise of 'start small and iterate fast'. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

The process of making the business case for technology: A sales and marketing perspective for technologists

Technological investment is a key driver of innovation and the evaluation of technology potential is becoming increasingly important in this context. There is a range of approaches and tools for developing an understanding of the value of technology. However the process of communicating this potential to possible customers is not well documented in terms of theory and practice and falls outside the skill set of many technologists. This paper seeks to integrate the concepts of marketing and consultative selling into making business cases for new technologies. It describes an exploratory study which results in an outline process activity model for technologists wishing to build an effective business case for securing investment internally or when selling a technology externally. Following a review of literature, we suggest that there is potential to learn from market research and consultative sales techniques, and propose a five step process. The work has been industrially validated and forms a novel foundation for further development. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.