Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Differentiation of rinderpest and peste des petits ruminants viruses using specific cDNA clones

The morbilliviruses which infect ruminants, rinderpest (RPV) and peste des petits ruminants (PPRV), are difficult to distinguish serologically. They can be distinguished by differential neutralisation tests and by the migration of the major virus structural protein, the nucleocapsid protein, on polyacrylamide gels. Both these methods are time consuming and require the isolation of live virus for identification; they are not suitable for analysis of material directly from post-mortem specimens. We describe a rapid method for differential diagnosis of infections caused by RPV or PPRV, which uses specific cDNA probes, derived from the mRNAs for the nucleocapsid protein of each virus, which can be used to distinguish unequivocally the two virus types rapidly.

Letters to a Quaker friend on baptism

http://books.google.com/books?vid=OCLC00615969

Christian adventures in South Africa

http://www.archive.org/details/christianadventu00tayluoft

Sher 25: pulsating but apparently alone

The blue supergiant Sher 25 is surrounded by an asymmetric, hourglass-shaped circumstellar nebula, which shows similarities to the triple-ring structure seen around SN 1987A. From optical spectroscopy over six consecutive nights, we detect periodic radial velocity variations in the stellar spectrum of Sher 25 with a peak-to-peak amplitude of ~ 12 km s^-1 on a time-scale of about 6 d, confirming the tentative detection of similar variations by Hendry et al. From consideration of the amplitude and time-scale of the signal, coupled with observed line profile variations, we propose that the physical origin of these variations is related to pulsations in the stellar atmosphere, rejecting the previous hypothesis of a massive, short-period binary companion. The radial velocities of two other blue supergiants with similar bipolar nebulae, SBW1 and HD 168625, were also monitored over the course of six nights, but these did not display any significant radial velocity variations. 

La cocina de los venenos. Aspectos de la criminalidad en el Nuevo Reino de Granada, siglos XVII-XVIII

Durante los siglos XVII y XVIII se presentaron varias querellas ante el Tribunal de Justicia Criminal del Nuevo Reino de Granada, en las que se denunciaba que había personas que ejercían los oficios médicos sin tener títulos que los acreditaran como facultativos en las artes curativas. Por ese entonces, se creía que quienes utilizaban yerbas y conjuros como métodos terapéuticos, por lo general mujeres, debían ser juzgadas como yerbateras-envenenadoras, porque no pretendían curar sino matar a quien consumiera sus preparados. El texto establece que los procesos criminales por envenenamiento constituyen un prisma en el que convergen diferentes problemáticas del periodo colonial neogranadino, relacionadas con la salud, los oficios médicos, las enfermedades, las creencias mágico-religiosas, el ideal de mujer en la época, la delincuencia, y las dinámicas de las instituciones españolas, entre otras. De esta manera, se estudió cómo fue la relación entre los aspectos jurídicos, las leyes criminales (dictadas por la Corona) y las conductas “desviadas” (relacionadas con el crimen por envenenamiento) de los habitantes del Nuevo Reino de Granada, entre los siglos XVII y XVIII. Para ello se revistaron desde diferentes perspectivas, varios temas del mundo colonial neogranadino, relacionados con los rumores, la comidilla, los chismes y la importancia de la comunicación hablada en el virreinato; el problema de la honra, como una de las virtudes más sobresalientes de la época y las creencias de la cultura popular con relación al envenenamiento y los diferentes métodos curativos.

Tentativas del “enemigo malo” Relaciones ilícitas e infanticidios en la Provincia de Antioquia (Nueva Granada) 1765-1803

El texto constituye un ejercicio de microhistoria y Antropología histórica que busca aportar a la historiografía colombiana información sobre las formas de comprender el crimen (el infanticidio y los comportamientos escandalosos como el adulterio, el concubinato y el incesto), el problema del honor durante finales del siglo XVIII –pues la mayoría de estudios han versado sobre el siglo XIX- y las configuraciones familiares (particularmente las actitudes maternales y paternales) al interior de la provincia de Antioquia. Usualmente estos temas se han tratado por separado y con diversas fuentes, pero este texto busca una visión general a partir de la participación de las personas en calidad de implicados, testigos y funcionarios en los juicios criminales.

Educación y democratización.

Se estudia el concepto de democratización de la educación en cuanto a términos de acceso, programas de educación y gobierno de las escuelas. Una democratización con éxito no se consigue con rapidez y se hace referencia a la democratización de la educación en Inglaterra, que no fue ni rápida ni espectacular. Se considera que los intentos apresurados para conseguir la democratización del acceso, programa y gobierno, no es probable que sirvan a los intereses a largo plazo de una política democrática.

La evolución de las estructuras de la enseñanza superior en Europa.

Se analiza la evolución de las estructuras de enseñanza superior en Europa. El estudio comprende cuatro partes. En la primera, se menciona alguno de los principios que han señalado estos últimos años los debates nacionales e internacionales, de los cuales han sido objeto las enseñanzas postsecundarias. En segundo lugar se realizan algunas observaciones generales sobre la forma en que los Estados miembros han intentado poner en práctica estos principios en sus políticas de enseñanza postsecundaria. En tercer lugar se muestra que las medidas ya adoptadas permiten el optimismo, pero que es conveniente no responder a los problemas inmediatos con soluciones a corto plazo, que puedan comprometer las transformaciones estructurales e institucionales necesarias. En último lugar se pone de manifiesto que quizá fuese posible elaborar una estrategia a largo plazo de reforma de las enseñanzas postsecundarias, a partir de las nociones de educación permanente y recurrente.

Developing a provisional definition of flare in patients with established gout

Objective Various nonvalidated criteria for disease flare have been used in studies of gout. Our objective was to develop empirical definitions for a gout flare from patient-reported features. Methods Possible elements for flare criteria were previously reported. Data were collected from 210 gout patients at 8 international sites to evaluate potential gout flare criteria against the gold standard of an expert rheumatologist definition. Flare definitions based on the presence of the number of criteria independently associated with the flare and classification and regression tree approaches were developed. Results The mean +/- SD age of the study participants was 56.2 +/- 15 years, 207 of them (98%) were men, and 54 of them (26%) had flares of gout. The presence of any patient-reported warm joint, any patient-reported swollen joint, patient-reported pain at rest score of >3 (010 scale), and patient-reported flare were independently associated with the study gold standard. The greatest discriminating power was noted for the presence of 3 or more of the above 4 criteria (sensitivity 91% and specificity 82%). Requiring all 4 criteria provided the highest specificity (96%) and positive predictive value (85%). A classification tree identified pain at rest with a score of >3, followed by patient self-reported flare, as the rule associated with the gold standard (sensitivity 83% and specificity 90%). Conclusion We propose definitions for a disease flare based on self-reported items in patients previously diagnosed as having gout. Patient-reported flare, joint pain at rest, warm joints, and swollen joints were most strongly associated with presence of a gout flare. These provisional definitions will next be validated in clinical trials.