中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

Dime cómo me percibes y te diré quién soy: Estados Unidos y su idea de la política exterior China en la década de 1950

La década de 1950 fue determinante en el establecimiento y póstumo desarrollo del sistema de política exterior de la República Popular China. Al respecto, es de vital importancia realizar un análisis exhaustivo sobre esta primera etapa en donde actores externos a la nación tuvieron un papel determinante. Se busca, entonces, analizar la incidencia que tuvo el discurso de Estados Unidos en la política exterior China a través de un profundo análisis cualitativo que tendrá como base elementos propios de la historiografía. Mediante aproximaciones constructivistas, se pretende demostrar que las creencias pre-existentes de ambos actores (así como la intersubjetividad entre los mismos), determinó la identidad construida a través de la percepción mutua. Lo anterior, impulsó las relaciones predominantemente agresivas entre Estados Unidos y la China Maoísta de principios de la Guerra Fría.

Nodal variations and long-term changes in the main tides on the coasts of China

The long-term changes in the main tidal constituents (O1, K1, M2, N2, and S2) along the coasts of China and in adjacent seas are investigated based on 17 tide-gauge records covering the period 1954–2012. The observed 18.61 year nodal modulations of the diurnal constituents O1 and K1 are in agreement with the equilibrium tidal theory, except in the South China Sea. The observed modulations of the M2 and N2 amplitudes are smaller than theoretically predicted at the northern stations and larger at the southern stations. The discrepancies between the theoretically predicted nodal variations and the observations are discussed. The 8.85 year perigean cycle is identifiable in the N2 parameters at most stations, except those in the South China Sea. The radiational component of S2 contributes on average 16% of the observed S2 except in the Gulf of Tonkin, on the south coast, where it accounts for up to 65%. We confirmed the existence of nodal modulation in S2, which is stronger on the north coast. The semidiurnal tidal parameters show significant secular trends in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, on the north coast, and in the Taiwan Strait. The largest increase is found for M2 for which the amplitude increases by 4–7 mm/yr in the Yellow Sea. The potential causes for the linear trends in tidal constants are discussed.

Sedimentology and geochemistry of ODP Site 184-1144

We analyzed sediment from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1144 in the northern South China Sea to examine the weathering response of SE Asia to the strengthening of the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) since 14 ka. Our high-resolution record highlights the decoupling between continental chemical weathering, physical erosion and summer monsoon intensity. Mass accumulation rates, Ti/Ca, K/Rb, hematite/goethite and 87Sr/86Sr show sharp excursions from 11 to 8 ka, peaking at 10 ka. Clay minerals show a shorter-lived response with a higher kaolinite/(illite + chlorite) ratio at 10.7-9.5 ka. However, not all proxies show a clear response to environmental changes. Magnetic susceptibility rises sharply between 12 and 11 ka. Grain-size becomes finer from 14 to 10 ka and then coarsens until ~7 ka, but is probably controlled by bottom current flow and sealevel. Sr and Nd isotopes show that material is dominantly eroded from Taiwan with a lesser flux from Luzon, while clay mineralogy suggests that the primary sources during the Early Holocene were reworked via the shelf in the Taiwan Strait, rather than directly from Taiwan. Erosion was enhanced during monsoon strengthening and caused reworking of chemically weathered Pleistocene sediment largely from the now flooded Taiwan Strait, which was transgressed by ~8 ka, cutting off supply to the deep-water slope. None of the proxies shows an erosional response lasting until ~6 ka, when speleothem oxygen isotope records indicate the start of monsoon weakening. Although more weathered sediments were deposited from 11 to 8 ka when the monsoon was strong these are reworked and represent more weathering during the last glacial maximum (LGM) when the summer monsoon was weaker but the shelves were exposed.

Financial crises in "successful" emerging economies

Includes bibliography

Korea and Taiwan in the financial crisis

Includes bibliography

Torres Strait Islander parents’ involvement in their children’s mathematics learning : a discussion paper

This paper is a beginning point for discussing what the literature states about parents’ involvement in their children’s mathematics education. Where possible it will focus on Torres Strait Islander Peoples. Little is known about how Torres Strait Islander parents approach their children’s learning of mathematics and how important early mathematics is to mothers. What is known is that is they are keen for their children to receive an education that provides them with opportunities for their present and future lives. However, gaining access to education is challenging given that the language of instruction in schools is written to English conventions, decontextualised and disconnected from the students’ culture, community and home language. This paper discusses some of the issues raised in the literature about what parents are confronted with when making decisions about their children’s education.

Investigating relationships between relationship quality, customer loyalty and cooperation : an empirical study of convenience stores' franchise chain systems in Taiwan

Franchising has been widely accepted as an effective way to conduct and expand businesses. However, a franchise system is not a guarantee of success in the market. A successful franchise system should rely on a close and strong franchising relationship. Franchising is an important relationship management business. Franchising arrangements normally last for a number of years, so the franchisor and franchisee in the arrangement relationship are usually motivated to cooperate with each other. In addition, highly loyal franchisees may be obtained through a successful long-term franchising relationship. Over the last few decades, there has been a tremendous wave of interest in franchising relationships. However, little research has been conducted to determine the reasons for long-term franchising relationships. As a result, this study focuses on the important elements that might lead to a successful long-term franchising relationship. This study attempts to examine empirically three essential constructs (relationship quality, cooperation and customer loyalty), which might lead to successful long-term franchising relationships between franchisees and franchisors among the convenience stores in Taiwan. Mailed questionnaires were utilised to collect the research data. A total of 500 surveys were mailed randomly to the manager/supervisor of convenience stores’ franchisees among the four main franchisors (7-ELEVEN, Family, Hi-Life and OK) in Taiwan. The final sample size is 120, yielding a response rate of 24 per cent. The results show that relationship quality positively influences the cooperative relationships between franchisors and franchisees. Relationship quality is also positively correlated with franchisees’ loyalty. Additionally, the results indicate that the cooperative relationships between franchisors and franchisees are significantly associated with franchisees’ loyalty.

Recognising and respecting Torres Strait Islander mathematics knowledges and home languages through mainstream mathematics education [Abstract]

This abstract provides a preliminary discussion of the importance of recognising Torres Strait Islander knowledges and home languages of mathematics education. It stems from a project involving Torres Strait Islander Teachers and Teacher Aides and university based researchers who are working together to enhance the mathematics learning of students from Years 4-9. A key focus of the project is that mathematics is relevant and provides students with opportunities for further education, training and employment. Veronica Arbon (2008) questions the assumptions underpinning Western mainstream education as beneficial for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people which assumes that it enables them to better participate in Australian society. She asks “how de we best achieve outcomes for and with Indigenous people conducive to our cultural, physical and economic sustainability as defined by us from Indigenous knowledge positions?” (p. 118). How does a mainstream education written to English conventions provide students with the knowledge and skills to participate in daily life, if it does not recognise the cultural identity of Indigenous students as it should (Priest, 2005; cf. Schnukal, 2003)? Arbon (2008) states that this view is now brought into question with calls for both ways education where mainstream knowledge and practices is blended with Indigenous cultural knowledges of learning. This project considers as crucial that cultural knowledges and experiences of Indigenous people to be valued and respected and given the currency in the same way that non Indigenous knowledge is (Taylor, 2003) for both ways education to work.

Torres Strait Island parents' involvement in their children's mathematics learning : a discussion paper

This paper is a beginning point for discussing what the literature states about parents’ involvement in their children’s mathematics education. Where possible it will focus on Torres Strait Islander Peoples. Little is known about how Torres Strait Islander parents approach their children’s learning of mathematics and how important early mathematics is to mothers. What is known is that is they are keen for their children to receive an education that provides them with opportunities for their present and future lives. However, gaining access to education is challenging given that the language of instruction in schools is written to English conventions, decontextualised and disconnected from the students’ culture, community and home language. This paper discusses some of the issues raised in the literature about what parents are confronted with when making decisions about their children’s education.

Advance Australia Fair : social democratic and conservative politicians’ discourses concerning Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples and their health 1972–2001

This paper reports research undertaken as part of a larger project in which we examined whether and how values and beliefs communicated by Australian politicians have shaped decades of health policy and influenced health outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples of Australia. To first characterise those values and beliefs we analysed the public statements of the politicians responsible nationally for the health of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples 1972–2001, using critical discourse analysis. We found that four discourses, communicated through words, phrases, sentences and grammatical structures, dominated public statements over the study period. These four discourses focused on the competence and capacity of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples to “manage”; matters of control of and responsibility for the health of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples; Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples as “Other”; and the nature of the “problem” concerning the health of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples. Analysis of the discursive elements contributing to shaping these four discourses is reported in this paper.