Gli infortuni sul lavoro in Brasile. Studio nello Stato di San Paolo del Brasile, regione di Botucatu, utilizzando il metodo dell'albero delle cause

This paper discusses, within the prevaling Brazilian situation, the possibility of applying 'Causal Tree' (CT) method in investigating occupational accidents by safety personnel in the public health services and workers' unions. The method was developed during the seventies in France, for use by plant safety personnel. The authors used this method in Botucatu, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in order to investigate 40 serious occupational accidents that occurred in industrial plants during the second half of 1993, that had been registered by Social Security. In these cases, the predominance of situations in which the lack of safety measures were identified by inspection indicates that in most instances, the use of CT is unnecessary. However, the authors discuss its use by safety personnel from the public health services and workers' unions to investigate certain accidents to contribute to the knowledge base and help overcome the cultural based guilt which, in Brazil, has turned the victim into the person responsible for the accident.

Limitações bióticas afetando o recrutamento da palmeira Euterpe edulis em uma ilha continental da Mata Atlântica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Condições de trabalho e saúde dos profissionais da rede de saúde de Botucatu-SP

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

Food Competition in a Semi-Free-Ranging Cebus apella Group

The competitive regime faced by individuals is fundamental to modelling the evolution of social organization. In this paper, we assess the relative importance of contest and scramble food competition on the social dynamics of a provisioned semi-free-ranging Cebus apella group (n=18). Individuals competed directly for provisioned and clumped foods. Effects of indirect competition were apparent with individuals foraging in different areas and with increased group dispersion during periods of low food abundance. We suggest that both forms of competition can act simultaneously and to some extent synergistically in their influence on social dynamics; the combination of social and ecological opportunities for competition and how those opportunities are exploited both influence the nature of the relationships within social groups of primates and underlie the evolved social structure. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Estudio de opciones reales para decisiones de inversión en un proyecto minero de nueva ejecución

El objetivo principal es desarrollar la metodología de opciones reales para evaluar la posible puesta en marcha de un proyecto minero. Para esto, el proyecto se divide en dos partes: En la primera parte, con carácter teórico se analizan las inversiones desde el punto de vista tradicional, comparando la problemática de estas valoraciones en ambientes de incertidumbre y flexibilidad operativa. Se analizan las opciones financieras y se comparan con las opciones reales, en cuanto a similitudes y problemáticas. Se desarrollan también los procesos estocásticos que afectan a las variables del proyecto de inversión. Se explican además, las metodologías para el cálculo de las opciones reales, incluido el cálculo de la volatilidad de las mismas. En una segunda parte, se estudia el yacimiento aurífero de Corcoesto, para el cual se realiza la simulación del plan de negocio según las características necesarias para la explotación, donde los ingresos se modelizan mediante un movimiento geométrico browniano para simular el comportamiento del precio de la onza de oro. Se elige un desarrollo de árboles binomiales para estimar el valor futuro del proyecto, a la vez que se establece un intervalo de precios de la opción para adquirir el proyecto minero. Este intervalo estará determinado por las incertidumbres del proyecto calculadas según las metodologías de Copeland y Antikarov, y Heraht y Park. Abstract This project is aimed mainly to develop real options theory to assess a mining project start-up. The project is divided in two documents: The first document with theorical content, investments are analyzed from the clasical point of view, comparing the advantages and disadvantages of this appraisal in high uncertainity and operational flexibility conditions. Financial options are analyzed and compared to real options, in both similarities and problematics. Stochastical process that affect the project variables are also developed. Methods for estimating real options value, including the methods for volatility estimation are commented. In the second document, the Corcoesto gold deposit has been studied. A bussines plan simulation has been maked according to the characteristics of the extraction, where incomes have been simulated with a geometrical Brownian movement to estimate the gold onze behaviour. The binomial tree method has been generated to study the future project value, as well as a range of option prices, for adquiring the mine project. This interval is determined by the project uncertainity calculated with the theories from Copeland and Antikarov and Herath and Park

The System of Quality Prediction on the Basis of a Fuzzy Data and Psychography of the Experts

The system of development unstable processes prediction is given. It is based on a decision-tree method. The processing technique of the expert information is offered. It is indispensable for constructing and processing by a decision-tree method. In particular data is set in the fuzzy form. The original search algorithms of optimal paths of development of the forecast process are described. This one is oriented to processing of trees of large dimension with vector estimations of arcs.

Experience of Development and Application of Expert Systems for Economic Macroparameters Forecasting and Operation

In this article there are considered problems of forecasting economical macroparameters, and in the first place, index of inflation. Concept of development of synthetical forecasting methods which use directly specified expert information as well as calculation result on the basis of objective economical and mathematical models for forecasting separate “slowly changeable parameters” are offered. This article discusses problems of macroparameters operation on the basis of analysis of received prognostic magnitude.

How to optimize the business model for ConsultaClick an innovative startup in the e-health Portuguese sector

Field lab: Entrepreneurial and innovative ventures

Real options as an alternative methodology to assess investment projects

This paper aims to broaden the applicability of the assessment methodology of investment projects through real options as a key element for investment decision making -- Traditional project valuation methodologies are described and their gaps, which special characteristic is uncertainty, are presented -- A parallel between financial and real options that could be used for valuation is made, using the binomial tree method -- Finally, a case study in the construction sector shows a project valuation using expand and waiting options

And yet it shrinks: A novel method for correcting bias in forest tree growth estimates caused by water-induced fluctuations

Accuracy in tree woody growth estimates is important to global carbon budget estimation and climate-change science. Tree growth in permanent sampling plots (PSPs) is commonly estimated by measuring stem diameter changes, but this method is susceptible to bias resulting from water-induced reversible stem shrinkage. In the absence of bias correction, temporal variability in growth is likely to be overestimated and incorrectly attributed to fluctuations in resource availability, especially in forests with high seasonal and inter-annual variability in water. We propose and test a novel approach for estimating and correcting this bias at the community level. In a 50-ha PSP from a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India, where tape measurements have been taken every four years from 1988 to 2012, for nine trees we estimated bias due to reversible stem shrinkage as the difference between woody growth measured using tree rings and that estimated from tape. We tested if the bias estimated from these trees could be used as a proxy to correct bias in tape-based growth estimates at the PSP scale. We observed significant shrinkage-related bias in the growth estimates of the nine trees in some censuses. This bias was strongly linearly related to tape-based growth estimates at the level of the PSP, and could be used as a proxy. After bias was corrected, the temporal variance in growth rates of the PSP decreased, while the effect of exceptionally dry or wet periods was retained, indicating that at least a part of the temporal variability arose from reversible shrinkage-related bias. We also suggest that the efficacy of the bias correction could be improved by measuring the proxy on trees that belong to different size classes and census timing, but not necessarily to different species. Our approach allows for reanalysis - and possible reinterpretation of temporal trends in tree growth, above ground biomass change, or carbon fluxes in forests, and their relationships with resource availability in the context of climate change. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Precipitation over the past four centuries in the Dieshan Mountains as inferred from tree rings: An introduction to an HHT-based method

To improve our understanding of the Asian monsoon system, we developed a hydroclimate reconstruction in a marginal monsoon shoulder region for the period prior to the industrial era. Here, we present the first moisture sensitive tree-ring chronology, spanning 501 years for the Dieshan Mountain area, a boundary region of the Asian summer monsoon in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. This reconstruction was derived from 101 cores of 68 old-growth Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) trees. We introduce a Hilbert–Huang Transform (HHT) based standardization method to develop the tree-ring chronology, which has the advantages of excluding non-climatic disturbances in individual tree-ring series. Based on the reliable portion of the chronology, we reconstructed the annual (prior July to current June) precipitation history since 1637 for the Dieshan Mountain area and were able to explain 41.3% of the variance. The extremely dry years in this reconstruction were also found in historical documents and are also associated with El Niño episodes. Dry periods were reconstructed for 1718–1725, 1766–1770 and 1920–1933, whereas 1782–1788 and 1979–1985 were wet periods. The spatial signatures of these events were supported by data from other marginal regions of the Asian summer monsoon. Over the past four centuries, out-of-phase relationships between hydroclimate variations in the Dieshan Mountain area and far western Mongolia were observed during the 1718–1725 and 1766–1770 dry periods and the 1979–1985 wet period.

BM+-tree: A hyperplane-based index method for high-dimensional metric spaces

In this paper, we propose a novel high-dimensional index method, the BM+-tree, to support efficient processing of similarity search queries in high-dimensional spaces. The main idea of the proposed index is to improve data partitioning efficiency in a high-dimensional space by using a rotary binary hyperplane, which further partitions a subspace and can also take advantage of the twin node concept used in the M+-tree. Compared with the key dimension concept in the M+-tree, the binary hyperplane is more effective in data filtering. High space utilization is achieved by dynamically performing data reallocation between twin nodes. In addition, a post processing step is used after index building to ensure effective filtration. Experimental results using two types of real data sets illustrate a significantly improved filtering efficiency.

The Inflation Index Prognosis Based on the Method of Decision-Marking “Tree”

The description of the support system for marking decision in terms of prognosing the inflation level based on the multifactor dependence represented by the decision – marking “tree” is given in the paper. The interrelation of factors affecting the inflation level – economic, financial, political, socio-demographic ones, is considered. The perspectives for developing the method of decision – marking “tree”, and pointing out the so- called “narrow” spaces and further analysis of possible scenarios for inflation level prognosing in particular, are defined.

Towards automatic tree crown detection and delineation in spectral feature space using PCNN and morphological reconstruction

The application of object-based approaches to the problem of extracting vegetation information from images requires accurate delineation of individual tree crowns. This paper presents an automated method for individual tree crown detection and delineation by applying a simplified PCNN model in spectral feature space followed by post-processing using morphological reconstruction. The algorithm was tested on high resolution multi-spectral aerial images and the results are compared with two existing image segmentation algorithms. The results demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms the other two solutions with the average accuracy of 81.8%.