Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Presence-absence versus abundance data for monitoring threatened species

Effective detection of population trend is crucial for managing threatened species. Little theory exists, however, to assist managers in choosing the most cost-effective monitoring techniques for diagnosing trend. We present a framework for determining the optimal monitoring strategy by simulating a manager collecting data on a declining species, the Chestnut-rumped Hylacola (Hylacola pyrrhopygia parkeri), to determine whether the species should be listed under the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List. We compared the efficiencies of two strategies for detecting trend, abundance, and presence-absence surveys, underfinancial constraints. One might expect the abundance surveys to be superior under all circumstances because more information is collected at each site. Nevertheless, the presence-absence data can be collected at more sites because the surveyor is not obliged to spend a fixed amount of time at each site. The optimal strategy for monitoring was very dependent on the budget available. Under some circumstances, presence-absence surveys outperformed abundance surveys for diagnosing the IUCN Red List categories cost-effectively. Abundance surveys were best if the species was expected to be recorded more than 16 times/year; otherwise, presence-absence surveys were best. The relationship between the strategies we investigated is likely to be relevant for many comparisons of presence-absence or abundance data. Managers of any cryptic or low-density species who hope to maximize their success of estimating trend should find an application for our results.

Description of two new species of Avicularia Lamarck 1818 and redescription of Avicularia diversipes (C. L. Koch 1842) (Araneae, Theraphosidae, Aviculariinae)-three possibly threatened Brazilian species

Avicularia diversipes (C. L. Koch 1842) known previously only from its original description is redescribed along with Avicularia sooretama sp. nov. and Avicularia gamba sp. nov. The three species are endemic to Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. With other Avicularia species, they share a procurved anterior eye row, slender embolus and medially folded spermathecae, whereas they have unusual characters, such as a very long and spiraled embolus (A. diversipes) and spermathecae with multilobular apex (A. sooretama sp. nov.). Furthermore, the three species lack a tibial apophysis in males and share a distinctive color pattern ontogeny that is not known in any other Avicularia species. The conservation status of the three species is discussed, especially with respect to endemism, illegal trafficking and habitat destruction. The creation of protected areas in southern State of Bahia, Brazil, is recommended, as well as the inclusion of these species in IUCN and CITES lists. Appendices with figures and species information are presented to facilitate correct specimen identification by custom officers, in order to limit illegal traffic.

Status of Endangered and Threatened Sand Area Species of the Illinois Flora

This study was undertaken to determine the distribution and habitat requirements of many of the endangered and threatened plant species associated with the sand deposits of Illinois. Approximately 70 species of endangered and threatened plants are known to grow in these deposits. The habitat fidelity and natural community types were determined for 40 of these species that are restricted to these glacial drift sand habitats. Plant community types, associated species, moisture requirements, and other data concerning each of the plant species were determined by reviewing the pertinent literature, searching the Illinois Department of Natural Resources Natural Heritage Database, through discussions with botanists and natural heritage biologists, examination of herbarium specimens, and our studies of the vegetation of the Illinois sand deposits. Throughout the course of these studies, most of the nature preserves, state parks, and identified natural areas in the sand regions were visited on numerous occasions and vegetation surveys undertaken. The information presented in this paper could allow rare plant conservation in Illinois to become more proactive by encouraging the selection of sites where in situ conservation efforts could be conducted by state, local, and nongovernmental organizations.

Occurrence and abundance models of threatened plant species: Applications to mitigate the impact of hydroelectric power dams

Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools that can be used in biodiversity conservation, and can be applied to predict or plan actions needed to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower dams. In this study our objectives were: (i) to model the occurrence and abundance of threatened plant species, (ii) to verify the relationship between predicted occurrence and true abundance, and (iii) to assess whether models based on abundance are more effective in predicting species occurrence than those based on presence–absence data. Individual representatives of nine species were counted within 388 randomly georeferenced plots (10 m × 50 m) around the Barra Grande hydropower dam reservoir in southern Brazil. We modelled their relationship with 15 environmental variables using both occurrence (Generalised Linear Models) and abundance data (Hurdle and Zero-Inflated models). Overall, occurrence models were more accurate than abundance models. For all species, observed abundance was significantly, although not strongly, correlated with the probability of occurrence. This correlation lost significance when zero-abundance (absence) sites were excluded from analysis, but only when this entailed a substantial drop in sample size. The same occurred when analysing relationships between abundance and probability of occurrence from previously published studies on a range of different species, suggesting that future studies could potentially use probability of occurrence as an approximate indicator of abundance when the latter is not possible to obtain. This possibility might, however, depend on life history traits of the species in question, with some traits favouring a relationship between occurrence and abundance. Reconstructing species abundance patterns from occurrence could be an important tool for conservation planning and the management of threatened species, allowing scientists to indicate the best areas for collection and reintroduction of plant germplasm or choose conservation areas most likely to maintain viable populations.

Knowledge about a species' conservation status and funding for its preservation: Analysis

Using a species’ population to measure its conservation status, this note explores how an increase in knowledge about this status would change the public’s willingness to donate funds for its conservation. This is done on the basis that the relationship between the level of donations and a species’ conservation status satisfies stated general mathematical properties. This level of donation increases, on average, with greater knowledge of a species’ conservation status if it is endangered, but falls if it is secure. Game theory and other theory is used to show how exaggerating the degree of endangerment of a species can be counterproductive for conservation.

Overcoming limitations of modelling rare species by using ensembles of small models

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a standard tool in ecology and applied conservation biology. Modelling rare and threatened species is particularly important for conservation purposes. However, modelling rare species is difficult because the combination of few occurrences and many predictor variables easily leads to model overfitting. A new strategy using ensembles of small models was recently developed in an attempt to overcome this limitation of rare species modelling and has been tested successfully for only a single species so far. Here, we aim to test the approach more comprehensively on a large number of species including a transferability assessment. 2. For each species numerous small (here bivariate) models were calibrated, evaluated and averaged to an ensemble weighted by AUC scores. These 'ensembles of small models' (ESMs) were compared to standard Species Distribution Models (SDMs) using three commonly used modelling techniques (GLM, GBM, Maxent) and their ensemble prediction. We tested 107 rare and under-sampled plant species of conservation concern in Switzerland. 3. We show that ESMs performed significantly better than standard SDMs. The rarer the species, the more pronounced the effects were. ESMs were also superior to standard SDMs and their ensemble when they were independently evaluated using a transferability assessment. 4. By averaging simple small models to an ensemble, ESMs avoid overfitting without losing explanatory power through reducing the number of predictor variables. They further improve the reliability of species distribution models, especially for rare species, and thus help to overcome limitations of modelling rare species.

Is there any risk in a symbiotic species associating with an endangered one? A case of a phoronid worm growing on a Ceriantheomorphe tube

The conservation of emblematic threatened species is in highlight nowadays. Interestingly, few invertebrate groups attract scientific attention on this issue while they constitute the vast majority of animal biodiversity. Nevertheless, many invertebrate species are nowadays at risk of extinction. This means that plenty of species are currently disappearing out of sight. During a survey in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean tubes of an endangered species of cerianthid were sampled. This study reports for the very first time the occurrence of the species Phoronis australis in southwestern Atlantic waters and the association of phoronids with the genus Ceriantheomorphe. This raises questions on mutual extinction risks for symbiotic species and also on the criteria for their inclusion on Red Lists.

PCR primed with minisatellite core sequences yields species-specific patterns and assessment of population variability in fishes of the genus Brycon

Minisatellite core sequences were used as single primers in polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to amplify genomic DNA in a way similar to the random amplified polymorphic DNA methodology. This technique, known as Directed Amplification of Minisatellite-region DNA, was applied in order to differentiate three neotropical fish species (Brycon orbignyanus, B. microlepis and B. lundii ) and to detect possible genetic variations among samples of the threatened species, B. lundii , collected in two regions with distinct environmental conditions in the area of influence of a hydroelectric dam. Most primers generated species-specific banding patterns and high levels of intraspecific polymorphism. The genetic variation observed between the two sampling regions of B. lundii was also high enough to suggest the presence of distinct stocks of this species along the same river basin. The results demonstrated that minisatellite core sequences are potentially useful as single primers in PCR to assist in species and population identification. The observed genetic stock differentiation in B. lundii associated with ecological and demographic data constitute a crucial task to develop efficient conservation strategies in order to preserve the genetic diversity of this endangered fish species.

Biological information of Taunayia bifasciata (Siluriformes: Heptapteridae): a threatened and unknown catfish

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Rediscovered after 77 years: Odontodiaptomus thomseni - a rare species of calanoid (Crustacea: Copepoda) from South America

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reproductive data of a threatened bat, Myotis ruber (E. Geoffroy, 1806) (Chiroptera, Vespertilionidae) in a southern Brazilian deciduous seasonal forest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Eight anonymous nuclear loci for the squamate antbird (Myrmeciza squamosa), cross-amplifiable in other species of typical antbirds (Aves, Thamnophilidae)

Typical antbirds (similar to 209 species) represent a diverse radiation of Neotropical birds that includes many species of conservation concern. Here we present eight anonymous nuclear loci designed for the squamate antbird Myrmeciza squamosa, a species endemic to the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. We also show that those anonymous nuclear loci are amplifiable in a number of other typical antbird species from related genera (Myrmeciza, Percnostola, Gymnocichla, Myrmoborus, Pyriglena and Formicivora), including three threatened species (Myrmeciza ruficauda, Formicivora littoralis, and Pyriglena atra). Those markers will be useful not only to help management of threatened species of typical antbirds, but also to explore their evolutionary histories, both at intra and interspecific levels.

Population size of threatened and endemic birds of the Cerrado in Estacao Ecologica de Itirapina, a fragmented area in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The pressures for land use change have led to an increasing isolation of habitat remnants throughout the world. The goal of this study was to estimate the population size and density of some endemic and threatened species in a nature reserve in the Cerrado biome. One hundred and thirty four point transects were undertaken at the Estacao Ecologica de Itirapina (EEI), one of the last natural grassland savannah remnants in Sao Paulo state, in the south-east of Brazil between September and December 2006 and densities estimated for seven species (four endemic to the Cerrado, one near-endemic and two grassland specialists). Neither species reached the minimum viable population size of 500-5000 individuals. Four species, White-banded Tanager, White-rumped Tanager, Black-throated Saltator and Sharp-tailed Tyrant have populations ranging from 112 to 248 individuals, while the other species have a low population (< 60 individuals). The mean densities of Sharp-tailed Tyrant and Cock-tailed Tyrant in the EEI grassland showed similar values to those observed in larger areas of the Cerrado, which may indicate that the EEL grassland area is well conserved. In spite of the restricted size of the EEI, small areas can maintain some endemic and threatened bird populations, thus contributing to local biodiversity and the ecological processes in the region. The capacity of fragments of Cerrado (similar to 2,000 ha) to maintain populations of endemic and threatened bird species is unlikely to be effective in the long term.