Dealing with Errors in QCA

This paper discusses five strategies to deal with five types of errors in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA): condition errors, systematic errors, random errors, calibration errors, and deviant case errors. These strategies are the comparative inspection of complex, intermediary, and parsimonious solutions; the use of an adjustment factor, the use of probabilistic criteria, the test of the robustness of calibration parameters, and the use of a frequency threshold for observed combinations of conditions. The strategies are systematically reviewed, assessed, and evaluated as regards their applicability, advantages, limitations, and complementarities.

Estimation of systematic error in an equatorial ocean model using data assimilation

Assimilation of temperature observations into an ocean model near the equator often results in a dynamically unbalanced state with unrealistic overturning circulations. The way in which these circulations arise from systematic errors in the model or its forcing is discussed. A scheme is proposed, based on the theory of state augmentation, which uses the departures of the model state from the observations to update slowly evolving bias fields. Results are summarized from an experiment applying this bias correction scheme to an ocean general circulation model. They show that the method produces more balanced analyses and a better fit to the temperature observations.

Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure

Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root mean square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter-season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead time up to about five days, consistent with under-representation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper-tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes.

Reducing errors in simulated satellite views of clouds from large-scale models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Abundances in the Galactic bulge: results from planetary nebulae and giant stars

Context. Our understanding of the chemical evolution (CE) of the Galactic bulge requires the determination of abundances in large samples of giant stars and planetary nebulae (PNe). Studies based on high resolution spectroscopy of giant stars in several fields of the Galactic bulge obtained with very large telescopes have allowed important progress. Aims. We discuss PNe abundances in the Galactic bulge and compare these results with those presented in the literature for giant stars. Methods. We present the largest, high-quality data-set available for PNe in the direction of the Galactic bulge (inner-disk/bulge). For comparison purposes, we also consider a sample of PNe in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We derive the element abundances in a consistent way for all the PNe studied. By comparing the abundances for the bulge, inner-disk, and LMC, we identify elements that have not been modified during the evolution of the PN progenitor and can be used to trace the bulge chemical enrichment history. We then compare the PN abundances with abundances of bulge field giant. Results. At the metallicity of the bulge, we find that the abundances of O and Ne are close to the values for the interstellar medium at the time of the PN progenitor formation, and hence these elements can be used as tracers of the bulge CE, in the same way as S and Ar, which are not expected to be affected by nucleosynthetic processes during the evolution of the PN progenitors. The PN oxygen abundance distribution is shifted to lower values by 0.3 dex with respect to the distribution given by giants. A similar shift appears to occur for Ne and S. We discuss possible reasons for this PNe-giant discrepancy and conclude that this is probably due to systematic errors in the abundance derivations in either giants or PNe (or both). We issue an important warning concerning the use of absolute abundances in CE studies.

Chemical similarities between Galactic bulge and local thick disk red giant stars

Context. The evolution of the Milky Way bulge and its relationship with the other Galactic populations is still poorly understood. The bulge has been suggested to be either a merger-driven classical bulge or the product of a dynamical instability of the inner disk. Aims. To probe the star formation history, the initial mass function and stellar nucleosynthesis of the bulge, we performed an elemental abundance analysis of bulge red giant stars. We also completed an identical study of local thin disk, thick disk and halo giants to establish the chemical differences and similarities between the various populations. Methods. High-resolution infrared spectra of 19 bulge giants and 49 comparison giants in the solar neighborhood were acquired with Gemini/Phoenix. All stars have similar stellar parameters but cover a broad range in metallicity. A standard 1D local thermodynamic equilibrium analysis yielded the abundances of C, N, O and Fe. A homogeneous and differential analysis of the bulge, halo, thin disk and thick disk stars ensured that systematic errors were minimized. Results. We confirm the well-established differences for [O/Fe] (at a given metallicity) between the local thin and thick disks. For the elements investigated, we find no chemical distinction between the bulge and the local thick disk, which is in contrast to previous studies relying on literature values for disk dwarf stars in the solar neighborhood. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the bulge and local thick disk experienced similar, but not necessarily shared, chemical evolution histories. We argue that their formation timescales, star formation rates and initial mass functions were similar.

Alpha element abundances and gradients in the Milky Way bulge from FLAMES-GIRAFFE spectra of 650 K giants

Aims. We present the analysis of the [alpha/Fe] abundance ratios for a large number of stars at several locations in the Milky Way bulge with the aim of constraining its formation scenario. Methods. We obtained FLAMES-GIRAFFE spectra (R = 22 500) at the ESO Very Large Telescope for 650 bulge red giant branch (RGB) stars and performed spectral synthesis to measure Mg, Ca, Ti, and Si abundances. This sample is composed of 474 giant stars observed in 3 fields along the minor axis of the Galactic bulge and at latitudes b = -4 degrees, b = -6 degrees, b = -12 degrees. Another 176 stars belong to a field containing the globular cluster NGC 6553, located at b = -3 degrees and 5 degrees away from the other three fields along the major axis. Stellar parameters and metallicities for these stars were presented in Zoccali et al. (2008, A&A, 486, 177). We have also re-derived stellar parameters and abundances for the sample of thick and thin disk red giants analyzed in Alves-Brito et al. (2010, A&A, 513, A35). Therefore using a homogeneous abundance database for the bulge, thick and thin disk, we have performed a differential analysis minimizing systematic errors, to compare the formation scenarios of these Galactic components. Results. Our results confirm, with large number statistics, the chemical similarity between the Galactic bulge and thick disk, which are both enhanced in alpha elements when compared to the thin disk. In the same context, we analyze [alpha/Fe] vs. [Fe/H] trends across different bulge regions. The most metal rich stars, showing low [alpha/Fe] ratios at b = -4 degrees disappear at higher Galactic latitudes in agreement with the observed metallicity gradient in the bulge. Metal-poor stars ([Fe/H] < -0.2) show a remarkable homogeneity at different bulge locations. Conclusions. We have obtained further constrains for the formation scenario of the Galactic bulge. A metal-poor component chemically indistinguishable from the thick disk hints for a fast and early formation for both the bulge and the thick disk. Such a component shows no variation, neither in abundances nor kinematics, among different bulge regions. A metal-rich component showing low [alpha/Fe] similar to those of the thin disk disappears at larger latitudes. This allows us to trace a component formed through fast early mergers (classical bulge) and a disk/bar component formed on a more extended timescale.

TESTING THE DISTANCE-DUALITY RELATION WITH GALAXY CLUSTERS AND TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

In this Letter, we propose a new and model-independent cosmological test for the distance-duality (DD) relation, eta = D(L)(z)(1 + z)(-2)/D(A)(z) = 1, where D(L) and D(A) are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. For D(L) we consider two sub-samples of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) taken from Constitution data whereas D(A) distances are provided by two samples of galaxy clusters compiled by De Filippis et al. and Bonamente et al. by combining Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and X-ray surface brightness. The SNe Ia redshifts of each sub-sample were carefully chosen to coincide with the ones of the associated galaxy cluster sample (Delta z < 0.005), thereby allowing a direct test of the DD relation. Since for very low redshifts, D(A)(z) approximate to D(L)(z), we have tested the DD relation by assuming that. is a function of the redshift parameterized by two different expressions: eta(z) = 1 + eta(0)z and eta(z) = 1 +eta(0)z/(1 + z), where eta(0) is a constant parameter quantifying a possible departure from the strict validity of the reciprocity relation (eta(0) = 0). In the best scenario (linear parameterization), we obtain eta(0) = -0.28(-0.44)(+0.44) (2 sigma, statistical + systematic errors) for the De Filippis et al. sample (elliptical geometry), a result only marginally compatible with the DD relation. However, for the Bonamente et al. sample (spherical geometry) the constraint is eta(0) = -0.42(-0.34)(+0.34) (3 sigma, statistical + systematic errors), which is clearly incompatible with the duality-distance relation.

Chemical similarities between Galactic bulge and local thick disk red giants: O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, and Ti

Context. The formation and evolution of the Galactic bulge and its relationship with the other Galactic populations is still poorly understood. Aims. To establish the chemical differences and similarities between the bulge and other stellar populations, we performed an elemental abundance analysis of alpha- (O, Mg, Si, Ca, and Ti) and Z-odd (Na and Al) elements of red giant stars in the bulge as well as of local thin disk, thick disk and halo giants. Methods. We use high-resolution optical spectra of 25 bulge giants in Baade's window and 55 comparison giants (4 halo, 29 thin disk and 22 thick disk giants) in the solar neighborhood. All stars have similar stellar parameters but cover a broad range in metallicity (-1.5 < [Fe/H] < +0.5). A standard 1D local thermodynamic equilibrium analysis using both Kurucz and MARCS models yielded the abundances of O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti and Fe. Our homogeneous and differential analysis of the Galactic stellar populations ensured that systematic errors were minimized. Results. We confirm the well-established differences for [alpha/Fe] at a given metallicity between the local thin and thick disks. For all the elements investigated, we find no chemical distinction between the bulge and the local thick disk, in agreement with our previous study of C, N and O but in contrast to other groups relying on literature values for nearby disk dwarf stars. For -1.5 < [Fe/H] < -0.3 exactly the same trend is followed by both the bulge and thick disk stars, with a star-to-star scatter of only 0.03 dex. Furthermore, both populations share the location of the knee in the [alpha/Fe] vs. [Fe/H] diagram. It still remains to be confirmed that the local thick disk extends to super-solar metallicities as is the case for the bulge. These are the most stringent constraints to date on the chemical similarity of these stellar populations. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the bulge and local thick disk stars experienced similar formation timescales, star formation rates and initial mass functions, confirming thus the main outcomes of our previous homogeneous analysis of [O/Fe] from infrared spectra for nearly the same sample. The identical a-enhancements of thick disk and bulge stars may reflect a rapid chemical evolution taking place before the bulge and thick disk structures we see today were formed, or it may reflect Galactic orbital migration of inner disk/bulge stars resulting in stars in the solar neighborhood with thick-disk kinematics.

Recovery of the star formation history of the LMC from the VISTA survey of the Magellanic system

The VISTA near infrared survey of the Magellanic System (VMC) will provide deep YJK(s) photometry reaching stars in the oldest turn-off point throughout the Magellanic Clouds (MCs). As part of the preparation for the survey, we aim to access the accuracy in the star formation history (SFH) that can be expected from VMC data, in particular for the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). To this aim, we first simulate VMC images containing not only the LMC stellar populations but also the foreground Milky Way (MW) stars and background galaxies. The simulations cover the whole range of density of LMC field stars. We then perform aperture photometry over these simulated images, access the expected levels of photometric errors and incompleteness, and apply the classical technique of SFH-recovery based on the reconstruction of colour-magnitude diagrams (CMD) via the minimisation of a chi-squared-like statistics. We verify that the foreground MW stars are accurately recovered by the minimisation algorithms, whereas the background galaxies can be largely eliminated from the CMD analysis due to their particular colours and morphologies. We then evaluate the expected errors in the recovered star formation rate as a function of stellar age, SFR(t), starting from models with a known age-metallicity relation (AMR). It turns out that, for a given sky area, the random errors for ages older than similar to 0.4 Gyr seem to be independent of the crowding. This can be explained by a counterbalancing effect between the loss of stars from a decrease in the completeness and the gain of stars from an increase in the stellar density. For a spatial resolution of similar to 0.1 deg(2), the random errors in SFR(t) will be below 20% for this wide range of ages. On the other hand, due to the lower stellar statistics for stars younger than similar to 0.4 Gyr, the outer LMC regions will require larger areas to achieve the same level of accuracy in the SFR( t). If we consider the AMR as unknown, the SFH-recovery algorithm is able to accurately recover the input AMR, at the price of an increase of random errors in the SFR(t) by a factor of about 2.5. Experiments of SFH-recovery performed for varying distance modulus and reddening indicate that these parameters can be determined with (relative) accuracies of Delta(m-M)(0) similar to 0.02 mag and Delta E(B-V) similar to 0.01 mag, for each individual field over the LMC. The propagation of these errors in the SFR(t) implies systematic errors below 30%. This level of accuracy in the SFR(t) can reveal significant imprints in the dynamical evolution of this unique and nearby stellar system, as well as possible signatures of the past interaction between the MCs and the MW.

Detailed study of the K(L)->pi(0)pi(0)pi(0) Dalitz plot

Using a sample of 68.3x10(6) K(L)->pi(0)pi(0)pi(0) decays collected in 1996-1999 by the KTeV (E832) experiment at Fermilab, we present a detailed study of the K(L)->pi(0)pi(0)pi(0) Dalitz plot density. We report the first observation of interference from K(L)->pi(+)pi(-)pi(0) decays in which pi(+)pi(-) rescatters to pi(0)pi(0) in a final-state interaction. This rescattering effect is described by the Cabibbo-Isidori model, and it depends on the difference in pion scattering lengths between the isospin I=0 and I=2 states, a(0)-a(2). Using the Cabibbo-Isidori model, and fixing (a(0)-a(2))m(pi)(+)=0.268 +/- 0.017 as measured by the CERN-NA48 collaboration, we present the first measurement of the K(L)->pi(0)pi(0)pi(0) quadratic slope parameter that accounts for the rescattering effect: h(000)=(+0.59 +/- 0.20(stat)+/- 0.48(syst)+/- 1.06(ext))x10(-3), where the uncertainties are from data statistics, KTeV systematic errors, and external systematic errors. Fitting for both h(000) and a(0)-a(2), we find h(000)=(-2.09 +/- 0.62(stat)+/- 0.72(syst)+/- 0.28(ext))x10(-3), and m(pi)(+)(a(0)-a(2))=0.215 +/- 0.014(stat)+/- 0.025(syst)+/- 0.006(ext); our value for a(0)-a(2) is consistent with that from NA48.

Evaluation of the use of multiple lines for determination of metals in water by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry with axial viewing

Inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometers (ICP DES) allow fast simultaneous measurements of several spectral lines for multiple elements. The combination of signal intensities of two or more emission lines for each element may bring such advantages as improvement of the precision, the minimization of systematic errors caused by spectral interferences and matrix effects. In this work, signal intensities for several spectral lines were combined for the determination of Al, Cd, Co, Cr, Mn, Pb, and Zn in water. Afterwards, parameters for evaluation of the calibration model were calculated to select the combination of emission lines leading to the best accuracy (lowest values of PRESS-Predicted error sum of squares and RMSEP-Root means square error of prediction). Limits of detection (LOD) obtained using multiple lines were 7.1, 0.5, 4.4, 0.042, 3.3, 28 and 6.7 mu g L(-1) (n = 10) for Al, Cd. Co, Cr, Mn, Pb and Zn, respectively, in the presence of concomitants. On the other hand, the LOD established for the most intense emission line were 16. 0.7, 8.4, 0.074. 23, 26 and 9.6 mu g L(-1) (n = 10) for these same elements in the presence of concomitants. The accuracy of the developed procedure was demonstrated using water certified reference material. The use of multiple lines improved the sensitivity making feasible the determination of these analytes according to the target values required for the current environmental legislation for water samples and it was also demonstrated that measurements in multiple lines can also be employed as a tool to verify the accuracy of an analytical procedure in ICP DES. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An unexpected role for visual feedback in vehicle steering control

Some motor tasks can be completed, quite literally, with our eyes shut. Most people can touch their nose without looking or reach for an object after only a brief glance at its location. This distinction leads to one of the defining questions of movement control: is information gleaned prior to starting the movement sufficient to complete the task (open loop), or is feedback about the progress of the movement required (closed loop)? One task that has commanded considerable interest in the literature over the years is that of steering a vehicle, in particular lane-correction and lane-changing tasks. Recent work has suggested that this type of task can proceed in a fundamentally open loop manner [1 and 2], with feedback mainly serving to correct minor, accumulating errors. This paper reevaluates the conclusions of these studies by conducting a new set of experiments in a driving simulator. We demonstrate that, in fact, drivers rely on regular visual feedback, even during the well-practiced steering task of lane changing. Without feedback, drivers fail to initiate the return phase of the maneuver, resulting in systematic errors in final heading. The results provide new insight into the control of vehicle heading, suggesting that drivers employ a simple policy of “turn and see,” with only limited understanding of the relationship between steering angle and vehicle heading.

Search for time variation of the fine structure constant

An order of magnitude sensitivity gain is described for using quasar spectra to investigate possible time or space variation in the fine structure constant alpha. Applied to a sample of 30 absorption systems, spanning redshifts 0.5 < z < 1.6, we derive limits on variations in alpha over a wide range of epochs. For the whole sample, Delta alpha/alpha = (-1.1 +/- 0.4) x 10(-5). This deviation is dominated by measurements at z > 1, where Delta alpha/alpha = (-1.9 +/- 0.5) x 10(-5). For z < 1, Delta alpha/alpha = (-0.2 +/- 0.4) x 10(-5). While this is consistent with a time-varying alpha, further work is required to explore possible systematic errors in the data, although careful searches have so far revealed none.

Revestimento vinílico em pavimentos: características, execução e patologia

O desenvolvimento industrial, tecnológico e económico, conduziu ao aparecimento de soluções construtivas e de revestimentos disponíveis no mercado da construção, cada vez mais eficientes e economicamente vantajosas. Uma dessas soluções é o revestimento vinílico em pavimentos, utilizado a nível mundial principalmente em escritórios, hospitais e escolas. A sua resistência ao tráfego pedonal e facilidade de aplicação e manutenção fazem dele um revestimento de eleição. No entanto esta aparente versatilidade acaba por colocar dificuldades aos profissionais do projecto, da construção e da reabilitação de edifícios, em particular na escolha das melhores soluções para cada tipo de utilização. É pois importante que estes profissionais disponham de orientações práticas para que façam as suas escolhas de um modo objectivo. O presente trabalho propõe o desenvolvimento de uma análise aprofundada deste tipo de material, onde são abordadas as suas exigências funcionais, modo de aplicação e patologia associada, tentando evitar-se deste modo a ocorrência de eventuais erros sistemáticos e recorrentes.