Estimation of systematic error in an equatorial ocean model using data assimilation

Assimilation of temperature observations into an ocean model near the equator often results in a dynamically unbalanced state with unrealistic overturning circulations. The way in which these circulations arise from systematic errors in the model or its forcing is discussed. A scheme is proposed, based on the theory of state augmentation, which uses the departures of the model state from the observations to update slowly evolving bias fields. Results are summarized from an experiment applying this bias correction scheme to an ocean general circulation model. They show that the method produces more balanced analyses and a better fit to the temperature observations.

Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure

Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root mean square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter-season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead time up to about five days, consistent with under-representation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper-tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes.

Reducing errors in simulated satellite views of clouds from large-scale models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Intraocular pressure in keratoconus

Aims: To investigate IOP measurements with the dynamic contour tonometer (DCT) and non contact tonometer (NCT) in subjects with keratoconus. Methods: Twenty keratoconic subjects and 20 age-matched control subjects had IOP measurements taken using DCT and NCT instruments. Central and offcentre measures were taken with the DCT in order to highlight any systematic errors associated with corneal biomechanical factors. Measures of anterior and posterior corneal topography and thickness were also taken for each subject. Results: No significant difference was found between the central and off-centre DCT IOP readings for the keratoconics and age-matched controls (p>0.05). The average DCT IOP for the keratoconics was 14.2 ± 1.4 mmHg and for the agematched controls was 14.2 ± 1.6 mmHg. However, the average NCT readings differed significantly (p<0.001) between the keratoconics (9.2 ± 1.5 mmHg) and age-matched controls (12.9 ± 2.4 mmHg). DCT IOP showed no significant (p>0.05) correlation with the severity of keratoconus, as determined through measures of corneal topography and thickness. NCT IOP was correlated significantly with certain measures of corneal curvature and thickness in the keratoconic population. The difference between DCT and NCT IOP was strongly correlated with measures of corneal topography and thickness, with differences increasing for more advanced keratoconus. Conclusions: The measurements from the DCT do not appear to be dependent upon corneal factors, unlike the NCT. The presence or severity of keratoconus was not correlated with DCT IOP values.

Error modeling and calibration of exteroceptive sensors for accurate mapping applications

Reliable robotic perception and planning are critical to performing autonomous actions in uncertain, unstructured environments. In field robotic systems, automation is achieved by interpreting exteroceptive sensor information to infer something about the world. This is then mapped to provide a consistent spatial context, so that actions can be planned around the predicted future interaction of the robot and the world. The whole system is as reliable as the weakest link in this chain. In this paper, the term mapping is used broadly to describe the transformation of range-based exteroceptive sensor data (such as LIDAR or stereo vision) to a fixed navigation frame, so that it can be used to form an internal representation of the environment. The coordinate transformation from the sensor frame to the navigation frame is analyzed to produce a spatial error model that captures the dominant geometric and temporal sources of mapping error. This allows the mapping accuracy to be calculated at run time. A generic extrinsic calibration method for exteroceptive range-based sensors is then presented to determine the sensor location and orientation. This allows systematic errors in individual sensors to be minimized, and when multiple sensors are used, it minimizes the systematic contradiction between them to enable reliable multisensor data fusion. The mathematical derivations at the core of this model are not particularly novel or complicated, but the rigorous analysis and application to field robotics seems to be largely absent from the literature to date. The techniques in this paper are simple to implement, and they offer a significant improvement to the accuracy, precision, and integrity of mapped information. Consequently, they should be employed whenever maps are formed from range-based exteroceptive sensor data. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development of gas sensing technology for ground and airborne applications powered by solar energy : methodology and experimental results

Monitoring gases for environmental, industrial and agricultural fields is a demanding task that requires long periods of observation, large quantity of sensors, data management, high temporal and spatial resolution, long term stability, recalibration procedures, computational resources, and energy availability. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are currently representing the best alternative to monitor large, remote, and difficult access areas, as these technologies have the possibility of carrying specialised gas sensing systems, and offer the possibility of geo-located and time stamp samples. However, these technologies are not fully functional for scientific and commercial applications as their development and availability is limited by a number of factors: the cost of sensors required to cover large areas, their stability over long periods, their power consumption, and the weight of the system to be used on small UAVs. Energy availability is a serious challenge when WSN are deployed in remote areas with difficult access to the grid, while small UAVs are limited by the energy in their reservoir tank or batteries. Another important challenge is the management of data produced by the sensor nodes, requiring large amount of resources to be stored, analysed and displayed after long periods of operation. In response to these challenges, this research proposes the following solutions aiming to improve the availability and development of these technologies for gas sensing monitoring: first, the integration of WSNs and UAVs for environmental gas sensing in order to monitor large volumes at ground and aerial levels with a minimum of sensor nodes for an effective 3D monitoring; second, the use of solar energy as a main power source to allow continuous monitoring; and lastly, the creation of a data management platform to store, analyse and share the information with operators and external users. The principal outcomes of this research are the creation of a gas sensing system suitable for monitoring any kind of gas, which has been installed and tested on CH4 and CO2 in a sensor network (WSN) and on a UAV. The use of the same gas sensing system in a WSN and a UAV reduces significantly the complexity and cost of the application as it allows: a) the standardisation of the signal acquisition and data processing, thereby reducing the required computational resources; b) the standardisation of calibration and operational procedures, reducing systematic errors and complexity; c) the reduction of the weight and energy consumption, leading to an improved power management and weight balance in the case of UAVs; d) the simplification of the sensor node architecture, which is easily replicated in all the nodes. I evaluated two different sensor modules by laboratory, bench, and field tests: a non-dispersive infrared module (NDIR) and a metal-oxide resistive nano-sensor module (MOX nano-sensor). The tests revealed advantages and disadvantages of the two modules when used for static nodes at the ground level and mobile nodes on-board a UAV. Commercial NDIR modules for CO2 have been successfully tested and evaluated in the WSN and on board of the UAV. Their advantage is the precision and stability, but their application is limited to a few gases. The advantages of the MOX nano-sensors are the small size, low weight, low power consumption and their sensitivity to a broad range of gases. However, selectivity is still a concern that needs to be addressed with further studies. An electronic board to interface sensors in a large range of resistivity was successfully designed, created and adapted to operate on ground nodes and on-board UAV. The WSN and UAV created were powered with solar energy in order to facilitate outdoor deployment, data collection and continuous monitoring over large and remote volumes. The gas sensing, solar power, transmission and data management systems of the WSN and UAV were fully evaluated by laboratory, bench and field testing. The methodology created to design, developed, integrate and test these systems was extensively described and experimentally validated. The sampling and transmission capabilities of the WSN and UAV were successfully tested in an emulated mission involving the detection and measurement of CO2 concentrations in a field coming from a contaminant source; the data collected during the mission was transmitted in real time to a central node for data analysis and 3D mapping of the target gas. The major outcome of this research is the accomplishment of the first flight mission, never reported before in the literature, of a solar powered UAV equipped with a CO2 sensing system in conjunction with a network of ground sensor nodes for an effective 3D monitoring of the target gas. A data management platform was created using an external internet server, which manages, stores, and shares the data collected in two web pages, showing statistics and static graph images for internal and external users as requested. The system was bench tested with real data produced by the sensor nodes and the architecture of the platform was widely described and illustrated in order to provide guidance and support on how to replicate the system. In conclusion, the overall results of the project provide guidance on how to create a gas sensing system integrating WSNs and UAVs, how to power the system with solar energy and manage the data produced by the sensor nodes. This system can be used in a wide range of outdoor applications, especially in agriculture, bushfires, mining studies, zoology, and botanical studies opening the way to an ubiquitous low cost environmental monitoring, which may help to decrease our carbon footprint and to improve the health of the planet.

Wind drift of snowfall between the radar volume and ground

This study evaluates how the advection of precipitation, or wind drift, between the radar volume and ground affects radar measurements of precipitation. Normally precipitation is assumed to fall vertically to the ground from the contributing volume, and thus the radar measurement represents the geographical location immediately below. In this study radar measurements are corrected using hydrometeor trajectories calculated from measured and forecasted winds, and the effect of trajectory-correction on the radar measurements is evaluated. Wind drift statistics for Finland are compiled using sounding data from two weather stations spanning two years. For each sounding, the hydrometeor phase at ground level is estimated and drift distance calculated using different originating level heights. This way the drift statistics are constructed as a function of range from radar and elevation angle. On average, wind drift of 1 km was exceeded at approximately 60 km distance, while drift of 10 km was exceeded at 100 km distance. Trajectories were calculated using model winds in order to produce a trajectory-corrected ground field from radar PPI images. It was found that at the upwind side from the radar the effective measuring area was reduced as some trajectories exited the radar volume scan. In the downwind side areas near the edge of the radar measuring area experience improved precipitation detection. The effect of trajectory-correction is most prominent in instant measurements and diminishes when accumulating over longer time periods. Furthermore, measurements of intensive and small scale precipitation patterns benefit most from wind drift correction. The contribution of wind drift on the uncertainty of estimated Ze (S) - relationship was studied by simulating the effect of different error sources to the uncertainty in the relationship coefficients a and b. The overall uncertainty was assumed to consist of systematic errors of both the radar and the gauge, as well as errors by turbulence at the gauge orifice and by wind drift of precipitation. The focus of the analysis is error associated with wind drift, which was determined by describing the spatial structure of the reflectivity field using spatial autocovariance (or variogram). This spatial structure was then used with calculated drift distances to estimate the variance in radar measurement produced by precipitation drift, relative to the other error sources. It was found that error by wind drift was of similar magnitude with error by turbulence at gauge orifice at all ranges from radar, with systematic errors of the instruments being a minor issue. The correction method presented in the study could be used in radar nowcasting products to improve the estimation of visibility and local precipitation intensities. The method however only considers pure snow, and for operational purposes some improvements are desirable, such as melting layer detection, VPR correction and taking solid state hydrometeor type into account, which would improve the estimation of vertical velocities of the hydrometeors.

Dark-energy constraints and correlations with systematics from CFHTLS weak lensing, SNLS supernovae Ia and WMAP5

Aims We combine measurements of weak gravitational lensing from the CFHTLS-Wide survey, supernovae Ia from CFHT SNLS and CMB anisotropies from WMAP5 to obtain joint constraints on cosmological parameters, in particular, the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter w. We assess the influence of systematics in the data on the results and look for possible correlations with cosmological parameters. Methods We implemented an MCMC algorithm to sample the parameter space of a flat CDM model with a dark-energy component of constant w. Systematics in the data are parametrised and included in the analysis. We determine the influence of photometric calibration of SNIa data on cosmological results by calculating the response of the distance modulus to photometric zero-point variations. The weak lensing data set is tested for anomalous field-to-field variations and a systematic shape measurement bias for high-redshift galaxies. Results Ignoring photometric uncertainties for SNLS biases cosmological parameters by at most 20% of the statistical errors, using supernovae alone; the parameter uncertainties are underestimated by 10%. The weak-lensing field-to-field variance between 1 deg2-MegaCam pointings is 5-15% higher than predicted from N-body simulations. We find no bias in the lensing signal at high redshift, within the framework of a simple model, and marginalising over cosmological parameters. Assuming a systematic underestimation of the lensing signal, the normalisation increases by up to 8%. Combining all three probes we obtain -0.10 < 1 + w < 0.06 at 68% confidence ( -0.18 < 1 + w < 0.12 at 95%), including systematic errors. Our results are therefore consistent with the cosmological constant . Systematics in the data increase the error bars by up to 35%; the best-fit values change by less than 0.15.

Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980-1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980-1985 to the period 1986-1991.

Refinement of thermodynamic properties of ReO2

The standard Gibbs energy of formation of ReO2 in the temperature range from 900 to 1200 K has been determined with high precision using a novel apparatus incorporating a buffer electrode between reference and working electrodes. The role of the buffer electrode was to absorb the electrochemical flux of oxygen through the solid electrolyte from the electrode with higher oxygen chemical potential to the electrode with lower oxygen potential. It prevented the polarization of the measuring electrode and ensured accurate data. The Re+ReO2 working electrode was placed in a closed stabilized-zirconia crucible to prevent continuous vaporization of Re2O7 at high temperatures. The standard Gibbs energy of the formation of ReO2 can be represented by the equation View the MathML source Accurate values of low and high temperature heat capacity of ReO2 are available in the literature. The thermal data are coupled with the standard Gibbs energy of formation, obtained in this study, to evaluate the standard enthalpy of formation of ReO2 at 298.15 K by the ‘third law’ method. The value of standard enthalpy of formation at 298.15 K is: View the MathML source(ReO2)/kJ mol−1=−445.1 (±0.2). The uncertainty estimate includes both random (2σ) and systematic errors.

SARAS MEASUREMENT OF THE RADIO BACKGROUND AT LONG WAVELENGTHS

SARAS is a correlation spectrometer connected to a frequency independent antenna that is purpose-designed for precision measurements of the radio background at long wavelengths. The design, calibration, and observing strategies admit solutions for the internal additive contributions to the radiometer response, and hence a separation of these contaminants from the antenna temperature. We present here a wideband measurement of the radio sky spectrum by SARAS that provides an accurate measurement of the absolute brightness and spectral index between 110 and 175MHz. Accuracy in the measurement of absolute sky brightness is limited by systematic errors of magnitude 1.2%; errors in calibration and in the joint estimation of sky and system model parameters are relatively smaller. We use this wide-angle measurement of the sky brightness using the precision wide-band dipole antenna to provide an improved absolute calibration for the 150 MHz all-sky map of Landecker and Wielebinski: subtracting an offset of 21.4 K and scaling by a factor of 1.05 will reduce the overall offset error to 8 K (from 50 K) and scale error to 0.8% (from 5%). The SARAS measurement of the temperature spectral index is in the range -2.3 to -2.45 in the 110-175MHz band and indicates that the region toward the Galactic bulge has a relatively flatter index.

Optimally robust shortcuts to population inversion in two-level quantum systems

19 p.

Einfluss des Tag-Nacht-Verhaltens von Fischen auf das Ergebnis hydroakustischer Messungen

Echo integration is an established method for stock estimation. However, this method is not free of errors like every other measuring method. Especially the variation between day and night behaviour of fish may lead to large measuring errors. A new method is represented detecting such systematic errors, exemplified by investigations during the international hydroacoustic survey on the spring spawning herring in the Norwegian Sea. For this method all measured sA-values are sorted by starting time of the measuring unit distance. In order to reduce random influences a moving average over five time intervals is computed. When displaying these values in a diagram makes it is very easy to detect systematic errors based on the differences in day-night behaviour. For both species, herring and blue whiting, stock estimations are calculated based on the measured sA-values and the results of the analysed trawl catches. The influence of the differnt day and night behaviour of herring on the results of its biomass estimation is rather low. For blue whiting the measured values were about three time higher during day time than during night time. The result of this investigation should initiate a change of the evaluation procedure for stock estimation based on hydroacoustic measurements.

Nucleon structure functions from ν_µ-Fe interactions and a study of the valence quark distribution

Data were taken in 1979-80 by the CCFRR high energy neutrino experiment at Fermilab. A total of 150,000 neutrino and 23,000 antineutrino charged current events in the approximate energy range 25 < E_v < 250GeV are measured and analyzed. The structure functions F2 and xF_3 are extracted for three assumptions about σ_L/σ_T:R=0., R=0.1 and R= a QCD based expression. Systematic errors are estimated and their significance is discussed. Comparisons or the X and Q^2 behaviour or the structure functions with results from other experiments are made.

We find that statistical errors currently dominate our knowledge of the valence quark distribution, which is studied in this thesis. xF_3 from different experiments has, within errors and apart from level differences, the same dependence on x and Q^2, except for the HPWF results. The CDHS F_2 shows a clear fall-off at low-x from the CCFRR and EMC results, again apart from level differences which are calculable from cross-sections.

The result for the the GLS rule is found to be 2.83±.15±.09±.10 where the first error is statistical, the second is an overall level error and the third covers the rest of the systematic errors. QCD studies of xF_3 to leading and second order have been done. The QCD evolution of xF_3, which is independent of R and the strange sea, does not depend on the gluon distribution and fits yield

ʌ_(LO) = 88^(+163)_(-78) ^(+113)_(-70) MeV

The systematic errors are smaller than the statistical errors. Second order fits give somewhat different values of ʌ, although α_s (at Q^2_0 = 12.6 GeV^2) is not so different.

A fit using the better determined F_2 in place of xF_3 for x > 0.4 i.e., assuming q = 0 in that region, gives

ʌ_(LO) = 266^(+114)_(-104) ^(+85)_(-79) MeV

Again, the statistical errors are larger than the systematic errors. An attempt to measure R was made and the measurements are described. Utilizing the inequality q(x)≥0 we find that in the region x > .4 R is less than 0.55 at the 90% confidence level.

Kinetic investigations of heterogeneously catalyzed reactions on the Ru(001) and Pt(110)-(1x2) surfaces

The initial probabilities of activated, dissociative chemisorption of methane and ethane on Pt(110)-(1 x 2) have been measured. The surface temperature was varied from 450 to 900 K with the reactant gas temperature constant at 300 K. Under these conditions, we probe the kinetics of dissociation via trapping-mediated (as opposed to 'direct') mechanism. It was found that the probabilities of dissociation of both methane and ethane were strong functions of the surface temperature with an apparent activation energies of 14.4 kcal/mol for methane and 2.8 kcal/mol for ethane, which implys that the methane and ethane molecules have fully accommodated to the surface temperature. Kinetic isotope effects were observed for both reactions, indicating that the C-H bond cleavage was involved in the rate-limiting step. A mechanistic model based on the trapping-mediated mechanism is used to explain the observed kinetic behavior. The activation energies for C-H bond dissociation of the thermally accommodated methane and ethane on the surface extracted from the model are 18.4 and 10.3 kcal/mol, respectively.

The studies of the catalytic decomposition of formic acid on the Ru(001) surface with thermal desorption mass spectrometry following the adsorption of DCOOH and HCOOH on the surface at 130 and 310 K are described. Formic acid (DCOOH) chemisorbs dissociatively on the surface via both the cleavage of its O-H bond to form a formate and a hydrogen adatom, and the cleavage of its C-O bond to form a carbon monoxide, a deuterium adatom and an hydroxyl (OH). The former is the predominant reaction. The rate of desorption of carbon dioxide is a direct measure of the kinetics of decomposition of the surface formate. It is characterized by a kinetic isotope effect, an increasingly narrow FWHM, and an upward shift in peak temperature with Ɵ_T, the coverage of the dissociatively adsorbed formic acid. The FWHM and the peak temperature change from 18 K and 326 K at Ɵ_T = 0.04 to 8 K and 395 K at Ɵ_T = 0.89. The increase in the apparent activation energy of the C-D bond cleavage is largely a result of self-poisoning by the formate, the presence of which on the surface alters the electronic properties of the surface such that the activation energy of the decomposition of formate is increased. The variation of the activation energy for carbon dioxide formation with Ɵ_T accounts for the observed sharp carbon dioxide peak. The coverage of surface formate can be adjusted over a relatively wide range so that the activation energy for C-D bond cleavage in the case of DCOOH can be adjusted to be below, approximately equal to, or well above the activation energy for the recombinative desorption of the deuterium adatoms. Accordingly, the desorption of deuterium was observed to be governed completely by the desorption kinetics of the deuterium adatoms at low Ɵ_T, jointly by the kinetics of deuterium desorption and C-D bond cleavage at intermediate Ɵ_T, and solely by the kinetics of C-D bond cleavage at high Ɵ_T. The overall branching ratio of the formate to carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide is approximately unity, regardless the initial coverage Ɵ_T, even though the activation energy for the production of carbon dioxide varies with Ɵ_T. The desorption of water, which implies C-O bond cleavage of the formate, appears at approximately the same temperature as that of carbon dioxide. These observations suggest that the cleavage of the C-D bond and that of the C-O bond of two surface formates are coupled, possibly via the formation of a short-lived surface complex that is the precursor to to the decomposition.

The measurement of steady-state rate is demonstrated here to be valuable in determining kinetics associated with short-lived, molecularly adsorbed precursor to further reactions on the surface, by determining the kinetic parameters of the molecular precursor of formaldehyde to its dissociation on the Pt(110)-(1 x 2) surface.

Overlayers of nitrogen adatoms on Ru(001) have been characterized both by thermal desorption mass spectrometry and low-energy electron diffraction, as well as chemically via the postadsorption and desorption of ammonia and carbon monoxide.

The nitrogen-adatom overlayer was prepared by decomposing ammonia thermally on the surface at a pressure of 2.8 x 10^(-6) Torr and a temperature of 480 K. The saturated overlayer prepared under these conditions has associated with it a (√247/10 x √247/10)R22.7° LEED pattern, has two peaks in its thermal desorption spectrum, and has a fractional surface coverage of 0.40. Annealing the overlayer to approximately 535 K results in a rather sharp (√3 x √3)R30° LEED pattern with an associated fractional surface coverage of one-third. Annealing the overlayer further to 620 K results in the disappearance of the low-temperature thermal desorption peak and the appearance of a rather fuzzy p(2x2) LEED pattern with an associated fractional surface coverage of approximately one-fourth. In the low coverage limit, the presence of the (√3 x √3)R30° N overlayer alters the surface in such a way that the binding energy of ammonia is increased by 20% relative to the clean surface, whereas that of carbon monoxide is reduced by 15%.

A general methodology for the indirect relative determination of the absolute fractional surface coverages has been developed and was utilized to determine the saturation fractional coverage of hydrogen on Ru(001). Formaldehyde was employed as a bridge to lead us from the known reference point of the saturation fractional coverage of carbon monoxide to unknown reference point of the fractional coverage of hydrogen on Ru(001), which is then used to determine accurately the saturation fractional coverage of hydrogen. We find that ƟSAT/H = 1.02 (±0.05), i.e., the surface stoichiometry is Ru : H = 1 : 1. The relative nature of the method, which cancels systematic errors, together with the utilization of a glass envelope around the mass spectrometer, which reduces spurious contributions in the thermal desorption spectra, results in high accuracy in the determination of absolute fractional coverages.