Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

Systematic and heuristic processing of majority and minority-endorsed messages:the effects of varying outcome relevance and levels of orientation on attitude and message processing

Two experiments investigated the conditions under which majority and minority sources instigate systematic processing of their messages. Both experiments crossed source status (majority vs. minority) with message quality (strong vs. weak arguments). In each experiment, message elaboration was manipulated by varying either motivational (outcome relevance, Experiment 1) or cognitive (orientating tasks, Experiment 2) factors. The results showed that when either motivational or cognitive factors encouraged low message elaboration, there was heuristic acceptance of the majority position without detailed message processing. When the level of message elaboration was intermediate, there was message processing only for the minority source. Finally, when message elaboration was high, there was message processing for both source conditions. These results show that majority and minority influence is sensitive to motivational and cognitive factors that constrain or enhance message elaboration and that both sources can lead to systematic processing under specific circumstances. © 2007 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Systematic review of the health and societal effects of medication organisation devices

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank, Estelle Payerne (article screening, data extraction and bias assessment); Trish Boyton (article retrieval and screening) and Laura Cawley (search terms and title screening) for their invaluable help in conducting this systematic review. Funding The research was funded by the UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Metabolic urinary profiling of alcohol hepatotoxicity and intervention effects of Yin Chen Hao Tang in rats using ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry

This paper was designed to study metabonomic characters of the hepatotoxicity induced by alcohol and the intervention effects of Yin Chen Hao Tang (YCHT), a classic traditional Chinese medicine formula for treatment of jaundice and liver disorders in China. Urinary samples from control, alcohol- and YCHT-treated rats were analyzed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC/ESI-QTOF-MS) in positive ionization mode. The total ion chromatograms obtained from the control, alcohol- and YCHT-treated rats were easily distinguishable using a multivariate statistical analysis method such as the principal components analysis (PCA). The greatest difference in metabolic profiling was observed from alcohol-treated rats compared with the control and YCHT-treated rats. The positive ions m/z 664.3126 (9.00 min) was elevated in urine of alcohol-treated rats, whereas, ions m/z 155.3547 (10.96 min) and 708.2932 (9.01 min) were at a lower concentration compared with that in urine of control rats, however, these ions did not indicate a statistical difference between control rats and YCHT-treated rats. The ion m/z 664.3126 was found to correspond to ceramide (d18:1/25:0), providing further support for an involvement of the sphingomyelin signaling pathway in alcohol hepatotoxicity and the intervention effects of YCHT.

A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Understanding public response to a congestion charge : a random-effects ordered logit approach

Public acceptance is consistently listed as having an enormous impact on the implementation and success of a congestion charge scheme. This paper investigates public acceptance of such a scheme in Australia. Surveys were conducted in Brisbane and Melbourne, the two fastest growing Australian cities. Using an ordered logit modeling approach, the survey data including stated preferences were analyzed to pinpoint the important factors influencing people’s attitudes to a congestion charge and, in turn, to their transport mode choices. To accommodate the nature of, and to account for the resulting heterogeneity of the panel data, random effects were considered in the models. As expected, this study found that the amount of the congestion charge and the financial benefits of implementing it have a significant influence on respondents’ support for the charge and on the likelihood of their taking a bus to city areas. However, respondents’ current primary transport mode for travelling to the city areas has a more pronounced impact. Meanwhile, respondents’ perceptions of the congestion charge’s role in protecting the environment by reducing vehicle emissions, and of the extent to which the charge would mean that they travelled less frequently to the city for shopping or entertainment, also have a significant impact on their level of support for its implementation. We also found and explained notable differences across two cities. Finally, findings from this study have been fully discussed in relation to the literature.

Use of modal flexibility method to detect damage in suspended cables and the effects of cable parameters

Modal flexibility is a widely accepted technique to detect structural damage using vibration characteristics. Its application to detect damage in long span large diameter cables such as those used in suspension bridge main cables has not received much attention. This paper uses the modal flexibility method incorporating two damage indices (DIs) based on lateral and vertical modes to localize damage in such cables. The competency of those DIs in damage detection is tested by the numerically obtained vibration characteristics of a suspended cable in both intact and damaged states. Three single damage cases and one multiple damage case are considered. The impact of random measurement noise in the modal data on the damage localization capability of these two DIs is next examined. Long span large diameter cables are characterized by the two critical cable parameters named bending stiffness and sag-extensibility. The influence of these parameters in the damage localization capability of the two DIs is evaluated by a parametric study with two single damage cases. Results confirm that the damage index based on lateral vibration modes has the ability to successfully detect and locate damage in suspended cables with 5% noise in modal data for a range of cable parameters. This simple approach therefore can be extended for timely damage detection in cables of suspension bridges and thereby enhance their service during their life spans.

Synthetic arabinomannan glycolipids and their effects on growth and motility of the Mycobacterium smegmatis

Arabinomannan-containing glycolipids, relevant to the mycobacterial cell-wall component lipoarabinomannan, were synthesized by chemical methods. The glycolipids were presented with tri- and tetrasaccharide arabinomannans as the sugar portion and a double alkyl chain as the lyophilic portion. Following synthesis, systematic biological and biophysical studies were undertaken in order to identify the effects of the glycolipids during mycobacterium growth. The studies included mycobacterial growth, biofilm formation and motility assays. From the studies, it was observed that the synthetic glycolipid with higher arabinan residues inhibited the mycobacterial growth, lessened the biofilm formation and impaired the motility of mycobacteria. A surface plasmon resonance study involving the immobilized glycan surface and the mycobacterial crude lysates as analytes showed specificities of the interactions. Further, it was found that cell lysates from motile bacteria bound oligosaccharide with higher affinity than non-motile bacteria.

Muon-spin rotation spectra in the mixed phase of high-T-c superconductors: Thermal fluctuations and disorder effects

We study muon-spin rotation (mu SR) spectra in the mixed phase of highly anisotropic layered superconductors, specifically Bi2+xSr2-xCaCu2O8+delta (BSCCO), by modeling the fluid and solid phases of pancake Vortices using liquid-state and density functional methods. The role of thermal fluctuations in causing motional narrowing of mu SR line shapes is quantified in terms of a first-principles theory of the flux-lattice melting transition. The effects of random point pinning are investigated using a replica treatment of liquid-state correlations and a replicated density functional theory. Our results indicate that motional narrowing in the pure system, although substantial, cannot account for the remarkably small linewidths obtained experimentally at relatively high fields and low temperatures. We find that satisfactory agreement with the mu SR data for BSCCO in this regime can be obtained through the ansatz that this ''phase'' is characterized by frozen short-range positional correlations reflecting the structure of the liquid just above the melting transition. This proposal is consistent with recent suggestions of a ''pinned liquid'' or ''glassy'' state of pancake Vortices in the presence of pinning disorder. Our results for the high-temperature liquid phase indicate that measurable linewidths may be obtained in this phase as a consequence of density inhomogeneities induced by the pinning disorder. The results presented here comprise a unified, first-principles theoretical treatment of mu SR spectra in highly anisotropic layered superconductors in terms of a controlled set of approximations. [S0163-1829(99)08033-9].

Pressure and thermal effects on elastic properties of single crystal alpha-Al2O3 from Monte-Carlo simulation

A rectangular structural unit cell of a-Al2O3 is generated from its hexagonal one. For the rectangular structural crystal with a simple interatomic potential [Matsui, Mineral Mag. 58A, 571 (1994)], the relations of lattice constants to homogeneous pressure and temperature are calculated by using Monte-Carlo method at temperature 298K and 0 GPa, respectively. Both numerical results agree with experimental ones fairly well. By comparing pair distribution function, the crystal structure of a-Al2O3 has no phase transition in the range of systematic parameters. Based on the potential model, pressure dependence of isothermal bulk moduli is predicted. Under variation of general strains, which include of external and internal strains, elastic constants of a-Al2O3 in the different homogeneous load are determined. Along with increase of pressure, axial elastic constants increase appreciably, but nonaxial elastic constants are slowly changed.

Changes in nitrogen and phosphorus and their effects on phytoplankton in the Bohai Sea

Systematic studies of the changes in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) and their effects on phytoplankton over the last 30 years in the Bohai Sea are presented. The amount of sewage disposal, use of fertilizer and the Huanghe River runoff were found to have a significant influence on the DIN or DIP concentrations in the Bohai Sea over the last 30 years. Moreover, the changes in DIN and DIP resulted in changes in the limiting nutrients of phytoplankton in the Bohai Sea from nitrogen in the early 1980s to nitrogen-phosphorus in the late 1980s, and then to phosphorus after the 1990s. In addition, changes in nitrogen and phosphorus had a significant effect on the phytoplankton community structure. The half saturation constant (K (s)) was used to evaluate the effect of nutrients on the phytoplankton community structure in the Bohai Sea over the last 30 years. Cell abundance percentages of dominant phytoplankton species with high K (s) values for phosphorus and low K (s) values for nitrogen have decreased since the 1980s, while those of dominant phytoplankton species with low K (s) values for phosphorus and high K (s) values for nitrogen increased during this period.

Local-field and excitonic effects in the optical response of alpha-alumina

This paper introduces key ingredients of the dielectric response of a-alumina that go beyond an independent-particle (IP) treatment of the valence-electron excitations. The optical-response functions were calculated from first-principles both at the Bethe-Salpeter and the random-phase approximation (RPA) levels. Excitonic effects obtained within the Bethe-Salpeter framework were found essential for reproducing the low-energy part of the experimental spectra (below 15 eV) and the bound exciton in particular. For higher energies, local-field effects introduced through the RPA modified considerably the IP results and provided a satisfactory account of the reflectivity spectra and of the position and shape of the dominant bulk plasmon resonance in the electron energy-loss spectra.

Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates

Background: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with HIV status. Longitudinal data suggests that individuals who know or suspect they are HIV positive are less likely to participate in testing in HIV surveys, in which case methods to correct for missing data which are based on imputation and observed characteristics will produce biased results. Methods: The identity of the HIV survey interviewer is typically associated with HIV testing participation, but is unlikely to be correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity can thus be used as a selection variable allowing estimation of Heckman-type selection models. These models produce asymptotically unbiased HIV prevalence estimates, even when non-participation is correlated with unobserved characteristics, such as knowledge of HIV status. We introduce a new random effects method to these selection models which overcomes non-convergence caused by collinearity, small sample bias, and incorrect inference in existing approaches. Our method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors which adjust for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is uncertain and needs to be estimated. Results: Using nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we illustrate our approach with new point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence among men in Ghana (2003) and Zambia (2007). In Ghana, we find little evidence of selection bias as our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 1.4% (95% CI 1.2% – 1.6%), compared to 1.6% among those with a valid HIV test. In Zambia, our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 16.3% (95% CI 11.0% - 18.4%), compared to 12.1% among those with a valid HIV test. Therefore, those who decline to test in Zambia are found to be more likely to be HIV positive. Conclusions: Our approach corrects for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates, is possible to implement even when HIV prevalence or non-participation is very high or very low, and provides a practical solution to account for both sampling and parameter uncertainty in the estimation of confidence intervals. The wide confidence intervals estimated in an example with high HIV prevalence indicate that it is difficult to correct statistically for the bias that may occur when a large proportion of people refuse to test.