Mapping Ireland’s Energy Pathways: Characterizing and Catalyzing Transition

In 2015 Ireland has arguably begun to make its first bold steps in confronting the challenges of energy transition, with the objective of a “low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by the end of the
year 2050” expressed in the 2015 Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill and the 2015 Energy Bill acknowledging that energy transformation relied on a new breed of ‘energy citizens’. These represent the first formal articulation of Ireland’s ambition to engage in a radical, long-term and far-reaching transition process, and raises a myriad of questions over how this can be operationalised, resourced and whether it can maintain political momentum. A range of perspectives on these issues is provided in the growing body of literature on transition theories (Rotmans et al 2001, Markard et al 2012) and the inter-disciplinary EPA-funded CC Transitions project, based at Queen’s University Belfast, represents an attempt to translate this into the context of Ireland’s institutions and technological profile. By relating this to international research on sustainability transitions, which conceptualises transitions as multi-level, multi-phase and multi-actor processes, this paper will explore the opportunities of alternative pathways that could take Ireland towards a more progressing, inclusive and effective low carbon future. Drawing on a number of case studies it will highlight some of the capacities for transition required in Irish society: where these exist, how they are being built or enabled, and the barriers to wider social change.

Direction, legitimacy and structuration in technological innovation systems upscaling-insights from roadmaps for deepwater offshore wind energy

This research investigates strategies aiming to accelerate the up-scaling of low- carbon innovations. We adopt the technological innovation systems (TIS) perspective to focus on structuration or system building processes, including key innovative activities. We analyze national roadmaps that have been developed for offshore wind energy in deep waters - more than 50 meters deep where most of the potential is expected but whose technologyis more immature . in Europe. The roadmaps analysis not only reveals how actors expect the TIS grow but also enables the understanding about the critical functions at this stage, such as direction of search and legitimacy.

Oceans of energy? The non-linear trajectory of the emerging wave energy technology

This paper addresses the construction and structuring of a technological niche – i.e. a protected space where promising but still underperforming technologies are stabilized and articulated with societal needs – and discusses the processes that influence niche development and may enable niche breakout. In theoretical terms the paper is grounded on the multi-level approach to sustainability transitions, and particularly on the niche literature. But it also attempts to address the limitations of this literature in what concerns the spatial dimension of niche development. It is argued that technological niches can transcend the narrow territorial boundaries to which they are often confined, and encompass communities and actions that span several spatial levels, without losing some territorial embeddedness. It is further proposed that these features shape the niche trajectory and, therefore, need to be explicitly considered by the niche theoretical framework. To address this problem the paper builds on and extends the socio-cognitive perspective to technology development, introducing a further dimension – space – which broadens the concept of technological niche and permits to better capture the complexity of niche behaviour. This extended framework is applied to the case of an emerging renewable energy technology – wave energy - which exhibits a particularly slow and non-linear development trajectory. The empirical analysis starts by examining how an “overall niche space” in wave energy was spatially constructed over time. Then it investigates in greater detail the niche development processes that took place in Portugal, a country that was among the pioneers in the field, and whose actors have been, from very early stages, engaged in the activities conducted at various spatial levels. Through this combined analysis, the paper seeks to understand whether and how niche development is shaped by processes taking place at different spatial levels. More specifically it investigates the interplay between territorial and relational elements in niche development, and how these different dynamics influence the performance of the niche processes and impact on the overall niche trajectory. The results confirm the niche multi-spatial dynamics, showing that it is shaped by the interplay between a niche relational space constructed by actors’ actions and interactions on/across levels, and the territorial effects introduced by these actors’ embeddedness in particular geographical and institutional settings. They contribute to a more precise understanding of the processes that can accelerate or slow down the trajectory of a technological niche. In addition, the results shed some light into the niche activities conducted in/originating from a specific territorial setting - Portugal - offering some insights into the behaviour of key actors and its implications for the positioning of the country in the emerging field, which can be relevant for the formulation of strategies and policies for this area.

Infrastructure transitions toward sustainability : a complex adaptive systems perspective

To ensure infrastructure assets are procured and maintained by government on behalf of citizens, appropriate policy and institutional architecture is needed, particularly if a fundamental shift to more sustainable infrastructure is the goal. The shift in recent years from competitive and resource-intensive procurement to more collaborative and sustainable approaches to infrastructure governance is considered a major transition in infrastructure procurement systems. In order to better understand this transition in infrastructure procurement arrangements, the concept of emergence from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory is offered as a key construct. Emergence holds that micro interactions can result in emergent macro order. Applying the concept of emergence to infrastructure procurement, this research examines how interaction of agents in individual projects can result in different industry structural characteristics. The paper concludes that CAS theory, and particularly the concept of ‘emergence’, provides a useful construct to understand infrastructure procurement dynamics and progress towards sustainability.

Partnerships to promote school to work transitions : evidence from the field

Internationally, vocational education and training (VET) is challenged by increasing skills shortages in certain industries and rapidly changing skill requirements. Rigid and centralised state bureaucracies have proven inadequate to adapt to these challenges. Increasingly, partnerships between schools and industry have been established as a potential strategy to address local labour market demand and to provide school to work transition programs. Drawing on experiences in Australia, this paper reports on a case study of government-let partnerships between schools and industry. The Queensland Gateway schools initiative currently involves over 120 schools. The study aimed to understand how partnerships were constructed in this initiative. Selected partnerships were analysed in terms of the following principles of public-private partnerships – efficiency, effectiveness, sustainability, and beneficiaries. Although there are some benefits of partnership activities reported by both school and industry stakeholders, little evidence was found that the above underlying principles had been addressed to a significant extent in the Gateway school initiative. Further, these partnerships are often tenuously facilitated by individuals who have limited infrastructure or strategic support. Implications are that project stakeholders have not sufficiently accommodated theoretical perspectives on implementation and management of partnerships. Similar initiatives may be improved if stakeholders are cognisant of the underlying principles supporting successful public-private partnerships.

An Australian study on partnerships to promote school to work transitions

The delivery of vocational education and training (VET) is being challenged by either increasing skills shortages and/or rapidly changing skill requirements. To respond to this challenge, centralised state bureaucracies are increasingly adopting partnerships between schools and industry as a strategy to encourage school to work transition programs to address the local labour market demand. This paper reports on an Australian case study of government-led partnerships named the Queensland Gateway to industry schools initiative. 12 out of 120 school industry partnerships from five industry sectors were analysed in terms of the two commonly identified principles derived from the public-private partnership literature; efficiency and effectiveness. The study found that efficiency and effectiveness benefits of partnership activities were attributed to Gateway schools projects by both school and industry stakeholders. However, little evidence was found that the above underlying principles were addressed systematically. Implications are that project stakeholders would benefit from adapting theoretical perspectives regarding the implementation and management of partnerships to ensure the sustainability of partnerships.

Fostering rapid transitions to education for sustainable development through a whole-system approach to curriculum and organizational change

Despite decades of attempts to embed sustainability within higher education, literature clearly suggests that highly regulated disciplines such as engineering have been relatively slow to incorporate sustainability knowledge and skill areas, and are generally poorly prepared to do so. With current efforts, it is plausible that sustainability could take another two decades to be embedded within the curriculum. Within this context, this paper presents a whole system approach to implement systematic, intentional and timely curriculum renewal that is responsive to emerging challenges and opportunities, encompassing curriculum and organizational change. The paper begins by considering the evolution of curriculum renewal processes, documenting a number of whole system considerations that have been empirically distilled from literature, case studies, pilot trials, and a series of workshops with built environment educators from around the world over the last decade. The paper outlines a whole-of-institution curriculum renewal approach to embedding sustainability knowledge and skills within the DNA of the institutional offerings. The paper concludes with a discussion of research and practice implications for the field of education research, within and beyond higher education.

Regenerative sustainability for the built environment – from vision to reality: An introductory chapter

Regenerative sustainability is emerging as an alternative discourse around the transition from a ‘mechanistic’ to an ‘ecological’ or living systems worldview. This view helps us to re-conceptualize relationships among humans’ technological, ecological, economic, social and political systems. Through exploration of ‘net positive’ or ‘regenerative’ development lenses and the traditional sustainability literature, the conceptualization and approaches to achieve sustainable development and ecological modernization are expanded to articulate and to explore the evolving sustainability discourse, ‘regenerative sustainability’. This Special Volume of Journal of Cleaner Production (SV) is focused upon various dimensions of regenerative sustainability (e.g. regenerative design, regenerative development, and positive development) applied to the urban built environment at scales, which range from individual buildings, neighborhoods, and urban developments to integrated regional sustainable development. The main focus is on how these approaches and developments are evolving, how they can help us to prevent or adapt to climate change and how these approaches are likely to evolve in the next two to three decades. These approaches are addressed in four themes: (1) reviewing the theoretical development of the discourse of regenerative sustainability, its emerging principles and practices, (2) explaining how it can be measured and monitored, (3) providing encouraging practical pathways and examples of its implementation in multiple cultural and climatic contexts, and (4) mapping obstacles and enablers that must be addressed to help to ensure that more rapid progress is made in implementing the transitions towards an urban built environment that supports genuinely sustainable societies.

City futures: exploring urban retrofit and sustainable transitions

Cities are responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption. By 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city-regions (i.e. the city and its wider hinterland) to re-engineer systemically their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. To inform transitions to urban sustainability, key stakeholders' perceptions were sought though a participatory backcasting and scenario foresight process in order to illuminate challenging but realistic socio-technical scenarios for the systemic retrofit of core UK city-regions. The challenge of conceptualizing complex urban transitions is explored across multiple socio-technical ‘regimes’ (housing, non-domestic buildings, urban infrastructure), scales (building, neighbourhood, city-region), and domains (energy, water, use of resources) within a participatory process. The development of three archetypal ‘guiding visions’ of retrofit city-regional futures developed through this process are discussed, along with the contribution that such foresight processes might play in ‘opening up’ the governance and strategic navigation of urban sustainability.

Algeria's Failed Transitions to a Sustainable Polity: Coming to yet another crossroads. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 8/October 2011

Algeria is so far the only country in North Africa not to have experienced sustained mass protests calling for political change. The government in Algiers has by no means remained indifferent to the groundbreaking events in neighbouring countries, but it is responding to this sweeping wave of change at its own pace. This paper argues that, despite its apparent stability, the Algerian polity suffers from underlying currents of instability that risk undermining the long-term sustainability of the state. It identifies the failure of the country’s political and economic transitions and its implications as the most serious challenge confronting the Algerian state today. Unless a) the process of democratic transition that was initiated in 1989 is refined and put back on track, leading to the advent and consolidation of the rule of law, popular enfranchisement and total civilian control of the military; and b) the efforts to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbons are intensified and made more coherent, Algeria will remain susceptible to future instability. This is all the more pertinent given that the country is heading towards a crossroads where the issue of generational transition will also become imperative for the current leadership to deal with.

Theory and Practice in Sustainability Science: Influence of Urban Form on the Urban Heat Island and Implications for Urban Systems

As the world population continues to grow past seven billion people and global challenges continue to persist including resource availability, biodiversity loss, climate change and human well-being, a new science is required that can address the integrated nature of these challenges and the multiple scales on which they are manifest. Sustainability science has emerged to fill this role. In the fifteen years since it was first called for in the pages of Science, it has rapidly matured, however its place in the history of science and the way it is practiced today must be continually evaluated. In Part I, two chapters address this theoretical and practical grounding. Part II transitions to the applied practice of sustainability science in addressing the urban heat island (UHI) challenge wherein the climate of urban areas are warmer than their surrounding rural environs. The UHI has become increasingly important within the study of earth sciences given the increased focus on climate change and as the balance of humans now live in urban areas.

In Chapter 2 a novel contribution to the historical context of sustainability is argued. Sustainability as a concept characterizing the relationship between humans and nature emerged in the mid to late 20th century as a response to findings used to also characterize the Anthropocene. Emerging from the human-nature relationships that came before it, evidence is provided that suggests Sustainability was enabled by technology and a reorientation of world-view and is unique in its global boundary, systematic approach and ambition for both well being and the continued availability of resources and Earth system function. Sustainability is further an ambition that has wide appeal, making it one of the first normative concepts of the Anthropocene.

Despite its widespread emergence and adoption, sustainability science continues to suffer from definitional ambiguity within the academe. In Chapter 3, a review of efforts to provide direction and structure to the science reveals a continuum of approaches anchored at either end by differing visions of how the science interfaces with practice (solutions). At one end, basic science of societally defined problems informs decisions about possible solutions and their application. At the other end, applied research directly affects the options available to decision makers. While clear from the literature, survey data further suggests that the dichotomy does not appear to be as apparent in the minds of practitioners.

In Chapter 4, the UHI is first addressed at the synoptic, mesoscale. Urban climate is the most immediate manifestation of the warming global climate for the majority of people on earth. Nearly half of those people live in small to medium sized cities, an understudied scale in urban climate research. Widespread characterization would be useful to decision makers in planning and design. Using a multi-method approach, the mesoscale UHI in the study region is characterized and the secular trend over the last sixty years evaluated. Under isolated ideal conditions the findings indicate a UHI of 5.3 ± 0.97 °C to be present in the study area, the magnitude of which is growing over time.

Although urban heat islands (UHI) are well studied, there remain no panaceas for local scale mitigation and adaptation methods, therefore continued attention to characterization of the phenomenon in urban centers of different scales around the globe is required. In Chapter 5, a local scale analysis of the canopy layer and surface UHI in a medium sized city in North Carolina, USA is conducted using multiple methods including stationary urban sensors, mobile transects and remote sensing. Focusing on the ideal conditions for UHI development during an anticyclonic summer heat event, the study observes a range of UHI intensity depending on the method of observation: 8.7 °C from the stationary urban sensors; 6.9 °C from mobile transects; and, 2.2 °C from remote sensing. Additional attention is paid to the diurnal dynamics of the UHI and its correlation with vegetation indices, dewpoint and albedo. Evapotranspiration is shown to drive dynamics in the study region.

Finally, recognizing that a bridge must be established between the physical science community studying the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the planning community and decision makers implementing urban form and development policies, Chapter 6 evaluates multiple urban form characterization methods. Methods evaluated include local climate zones (LCZ), national land cover database (NCLD) classes and urban cluster analysis (UCA) to determine their utility in describing the distribution of the UHI based on three standard observation types 1) fixed urban temperature sensors, 2) mobile transects and, 3) remote sensing. Bivariate, regression and ANOVA tests are used to conduct the analyses. Findings indicate that the NLCD classes are best correlated to the UHI intensity and distribution in the study area. Further, while the UCA method is not useful directly, the variables included in the method are predictive based on regression analysis so the potential for better model design exists. Land cover variables including albedo, impervious surface fraction and pervious surface fraction are found to dominate the distribution of the UHI in the study area regardless of observation method.

Chapter 7 provides a summary of findings, and offers a brief analysis of their implications for both the scientific discourse generally, and the study area specifically. In general, the work undertaken does not achieve the full ambition of sustainability science, additional work is required to translate findings to practice and more fully evaluate adoption. The implications for planning and development in the local region are addressed in the context of a major light-rail infrastructure project including several systems level considerations like human health and development. Finally, several avenues for future work are outlined. Within the theoretical development of sustainability science, these pathways include more robust evaluations of the theoretical and actual practice. Within the UHI context, these include development of an integrated urban form characterization model, application of study methodology in other geographic areas and at different scales, and use of novel experimental methods including distributed sensor networks and citizen science.