Estimating parameters in Markov models for longitudinal studies with missing data or surrogate outcomes

The discrete-time Markov chain is commonly used in describing changes of health states for chronic diseases in a longitudinal study. Statistical inferences on comparing treatment effects or on finding determinants of disease progression usually require estimation of transition probabilities. In many situations when the outcome data have some missing observations or the variable of interest (called a latent variable) can not be measured directly, the estimation of transition probabilities becomes more complicated. In the latter case, a surrogate variable that is easier to access and can gauge the characteristics of the latent one is usually used for data analysis. ^ This dissertation research proposes methods to analyze longitudinal data (1) that have categorical outcome with missing observations or (2) that use complete or incomplete surrogate observations to analyze the categorical latent outcome. For (1), different missing mechanisms were considered for empirical studies using methods that include EM algorithm, Monte Carlo EM and a procedure that is not a data augmentation method. For (2), the hidden Markov model with the forward-backward procedure was applied for parameter estimation. This method was also extended to cover the computation of standard errors. The proposed methods were demonstrated by the Schizophrenia example. The relevance of public health, the strength and limitations, and possible future research were also discussed. ^

Determining appropriate measurement methods for etiological research of computing-related musculoskeletal symptoms and disorders

Two studies among college students were conducted to evaluate appropriate measurement methods for etiological research on computing-related upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (UEMSDs). ^ A cross-sectional study among 100 graduate students evaluated the utility of symptoms surveys (a VAS scale and 5-point Likert scale) compared with two UEMSD clinical classification systems (Gerr and Moore protocols). The two symptom measures were highly concordant (Lin's rho = 0.54; Spearman's r = 0.72); the two clinical protocols were moderately concordant (Cohen's kappa = 0.50). Sensitivity and specificity, endorsed by Youden's J statistic, did not reveal much agreement between the symptoms surveys and clinical examinations. It cannot be concluded self-report symptoms surveys can be used as surrogate for clinical examinations. ^ A pilot repeated measures study conducted among 30 undergraduate students evaluated computing exposure measurement methods. Key findings are: temporal variations in symptoms, the odds of experiencing symptoms increased with every hour of computer use (adjOR = 1.1, p < .10) and every stretch break taken (adjOR = 1.3, p < .10). When measuring posture using the Computer Use Checklist, a positive association with symptoms was observed (adjOR = 1.3, p < 0.10), while measuring posture using a modified Rapid Upper Limb Assessment produced unexpected and inconsistent associations. The findings were inconclusive in identifying an appropriate posture assessment or superior conceptualization of computer use exposure. ^ A cross-sectional study of 166 graduate students evaluated the comparability of graduate students to College Computing & Health surveys administered to undergraduate students. Fifty-five percent reported computing-related pain and functional limitations. Years of computer use in graduate school and number of years in school where weekly computer use was ≥ 10 hours were associated with pain within an hour of computing in logistic regression analyses. The findings are consistent with current literature on both undergraduate and graduate students. ^

Rigorous design of distillation columns using surrogate models based on Kriging interpolation

The economic design of a distillation column or distillation sequences is a challenging problem that has been addressed by superstructure approaches. However, these methods have not been widely used because they lead to mixed-integer nonlinear programs that are hard to solve, and require complex initialization procedures. In this article, we propose to address this challenging problem by substituting the distillation columns by Kriging-based surrogate models generated via state of the art distillation models. We study different columns with increasing difficulty, and show that it is possible to get accurate Kriging-based surrogate models. The optimization strategy ensures that convergence to a local optimum is guaranteed for numerical noise-free models. For distillation columns (slightly noisy systems), Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions cannot be tested directly on the actual model, but still we can guarantee a local minimum in a trust region of the surrogate model that contains the actual local minimum.

Optimization of Chemical Processes Using Surrogate Models Based on a Kriging Interpolation

Superstructure approaches are the solution to the difficult problem which involves the rigorous economic design of a distillation column. These methods require complex initialization procedures and they are hard to solve. For this reason, these methods have not been extensively used. In this work, we present a methodology for the rigorous optimization of chemical processes implemented on a commercial simulator using surrogate models based on a kriging interpolation. Several examples were studied, but in this paper, we perform the optimization of a superstructure for a non-sharp separation to show the efficiency and effectiveness of the method. Noteworthy that it is possible to get surrogate models accurate enough with up to seven degrees of freedom.

Somatic cell gene therapy for diabetes mellitus: engineering a surrogate B-cell

Improved methods of insulin delivery are required for the treatment of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) to achieve a more physiological profile of glucose homeostasis. Somatic cell gene therapy offers the prospect that insulin could be delivered by an autologous cell implant, engineered to secrete insulin in response to glucose. This study explores the feasibility of manipulating somatic cells to behave as a surrogate insulin-secreting β-cells. Initial studies were conducted using mouse pituitary AtT20 cells as a model, since these cells possess an endogenous complement of enzymes capable of processing proinsulin to mature insulin. Glucose sensitive insulin secretion was conferred to these cells by transfection with plasmids containing the human preproinsulin gene (hppI-1) and the GLUT2 gene for the glucose transporter isoform 2. Insulin secretion was responsive to changes in the glucose concentration up to about 50μM. Further studies to up-rate this glucose sensitivity into the mM range will require manipulation of the hexokinase and glucokinase enzymes. Intraperitoneal implantation of the manipulated AtT20 cells into athymic nude mice with streptozotocin-induced diabetes resulted in decreased plasma glucose concentrations. The cells formed vascularised tumours in vivo which were shown to contain insulin-secreting cells. To achieve proinsulin processing in non-endocrine cells, co-transfection with a suitable enzyme, or mutagenesis of the proinsulin itself are necessary. The mutation of the human preproinsulin gene to the consensus sequence for cleavage by the subtilisin-like serine protease, furin, was carried out. Co-transfection of human fibroblasts with wild-type proinsulin and furin resulted in 58% conversion to mature insulin by these cells. Intraperitoneal implantation of the mature-insulin secreting human fibroblasts into the diabetic nude mouse animal model gave less encouraging results than the AtT20 cells, apparently due to poor vascularisation. Cell aggregations removed from the mice at autopsy were shown to contain insulin secreting cells only at the periphery. This thesis provides evidence that it is possible to construct, by cellular engineering, a glucose-sensitive insulin-secreting surrogate β-cell. Therefore, somatic cell gene therapy offers a feasible alternative for insulin delivery in IDDM patients.

How accurate are photographic surrogate markers used to detect macular edema in the English national screening programme?

DESIGN. Retrospective analysis PURPOSE. Macular oedema is not directly visible on two dimensional digital photographs such that surrogate markers need to be used. In the English National Screening Programme these are exudate within one optic disc diameter (DD) of the fovea, group of exudates within two DD of the fovea and haemorrhages or microaneurysms (HMA) within one DD of the fovea with best corrected visual acuity (VA) worse than 6/9. All patients who present with any of these surrogate markers at screening are referred to an ophthalmology clinic for slit lamp examination. The purpose of this audit was to determine how many patients with positive maculopathy diagnosis on photography were truly identified by optical coherence tomography (OCT) with macular oedema. METHODS. Data was collected from patients attending digital diabetic retinopathy screening. Patients who presented with surrogate markers for macular oedema also had an OCT scan. The fast macula scan on the Stratus OCT was used and an ophthalmologist reviewed the scans to determine whether macular oedema was present. RESULTS. Maculopathy by exudates: Of 155 patients 45 (29%) showed thickening on the OCT of these 12 required laser. Those who also had pre-proliferative retinopathy (n=20) were more likely to have macular oedema (75%) than those with background diabetic retinopathy. Maculopathy by HMA and VA worse than 6/9: Of 66 patients 11 (16.7%) showed thickening on the OCT. 5 (7.6%) of these had macular oedema, 5 (7.6%) epi-retinal membrane, and 1 (1.5%) age related macular degeneration. None of these patients required laser. CONCLUSIONS. The likelihood of the presence of macular oedema and requiring laser treatment is greater with macular exudation than HMA within one DD and reduced VA. Overall the surrogate markers used show low specificity for macular oedema, however combining OCT with photography does identify those with macular oedema who require a true referral for an ophthalmological slit lamp examination.

An Ethical and Legal Framework for Physicians as Surrogate Decision-Makers for Their Patients.

In Western industrialized countries, it is well established that legally competent individuals may choose a surrogate healthcare decision-maker to represent their interests should they lose the capacity to do so themselves. There are few limitations on who they may select to fulfill this function. However, many jurisdictions place restrictions on or prohibit the patient's attending physician or other provider involved with an individual's care to serve in this role. Several authors have previously suggested that respect for the autonomy of patients requires that there be few (if any) constraints on whomever they may appoint as a proxy. In this essay we revisit this topic by first providing a survey of current state laws governing this activity. We then analyze the clinical and ethical circumstances in which potential difficulties could arise. We take a more nuanced and circumspect view of prior suggestions that patients should have virtually unfettered liberty to choose their healthcare proxies. We suggest a strategy to balance the freedom of patients' right to choose their surrogates with fiduciary duty of the state as regulator of medical practice. We identify six domains of possible concern with such relationships and suggest straightforward methods of mitigating their potential negative effects that could be plausibly be incorporated into physician practice.

Extracellular cathepsin S and intracellular caspase 1 activation are surrogate biomarkers of particulate-induced lysosomal disruption in macrophages

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter has been shown to stimulate the innate immune system and induce acute inflammation. Therefore, while nanotechnology has the potential to provide therapeutic formulations with improved efficacy, there are concerns such pharmaceutical preparations could induce unwanted inflammatory side effects. Accordingly, we aim to examine the utility of using the proteolytic activity signatures of cysteine proteases, caspase 1 and cathepsin S (CTSS), as biomarkers to assess particulate-induced inflammation.

METHODS: Primary peritoneal macrophages and bone marrow-derived macrophages from C57BL/6 mice and ctss(-/-) mice were exposed to micro- and nanoparticulates and also the lysosomotropic agent, L-leucyl-L-leucine methyl ester (LLOME). ELISA and immunoblot analyses were used to measure the IL-1β response in cells, generated by lysosomal rupture. Affinity-binding probes (ABPs), which irreversibly bind to the active site thiol of cysteine proteases, were then used to detect active caspase 1 and CTSS following lysosomal rupture. Reporter substrates were also used to quantify the proteolytic activity of these enzymes, as measured by substrate turnover.

RESULTS: We demonstrate that exposure to silica, alum and polystyrene particulates induces IL-1β release from macrophages, through lysosomal destabilization. IL-1β secretion positively correlated with an increase in the proteolytic activity signatures of intracellular caspase 1 and extracellular CTSS, which were detected using ABPs and reporter substrates. Interestingly IL-1β release was significantly reduced in primary macrophages from ctss(-/-) mice.

CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the emerging significance of CTSS as a regulator of the innate immune response, highlighting its role in regulating IL-1β release. Crucially, the results demonstrate the utility of intracellular caspase 1 and extracellular CTSS proteolytic activities as surrogate biomarkers of lysosomal rupture and acute inflammation. In the future, activity-based detection of these enzymes may prove useful for the real-time assessment of particle-induced inflammation and toxicity assessment during the development of nanotherapeutics.

Development of advanced methods for the simulation of the reacting mixture formation in internal combustion engines with the use of machine learning algorithms

Besides increasing the share of electric and hybrid vehicles, in order to comply with more stringent environmental protection limitations, in the mid-term the auto industry must improve the efficiency of the internal combustion engine and the well to wheel efficiency of the employed fuel. To achieve this target, a deeper knowledge of the phenomena that influence the mixture formation and the chemical reactions involving new synthetic fuel components is mandatory, but complex and time intensive to perform purely by experimentation. Therefore, numerical simulations play an important role in this development process, but their use can be effective only if they can be considered accurate enough to capture these variations. The most relevant models necessary for the simulation of the reacting mixture formation and successive chemical reactions have been investigated in the present work, with a critical approach, in order to provide instruments to define the most suitable approaches also in the industrial context, which is limited by time constraints and budget evaluations. To overcome these limitations, new methodologies have been developed to conjugate detailed and simplified modelling techniques for the phenomena involving chemical reactions and mixture formation in non-traditional conditions (e.g. water injection, biofuels etc.). Thanks to the large use of machine learning and deep learning algorithms, several applications have been revised or implemented, with the target of reducing the computing time of some traditional tasks by orders of magnitude. Finally, a complete workflow leveraging these new models has been defined and used for evaluating the effects of different surrogate formulations of the same experimental fuel on a proof-of-concept GDI engine model.

Evaluation Of Different Treatment Methods Against Denture Stomatitis: A Randomized Clinical Study.

The aim of this clinical study was to determine the efficacy of Uncaria tomentosa (cat's claw) against denture stomatitis (DS). Fifty patients with DS were randomly assigned into 3 groups to receive 2% miconazole, placebo, or 2% U tomentosa gel. DS level was recorded immediately, after 1 week of treatment, and 1 week after treatment. The clinical effectiveness of each treatment was measured using Newton's criteria. Mycologic samples from palatal mucosa and prosthesis were obtained to determinate colony forming units per milliliter (CFU/mL) and fungal identification at each evaluation period. Candida species were identified with HiCrome Candida and API 20C AUX biochemical test. DS severity decreased in all groups (P < .05). A significant reduction in number of CFU/mL after 1 week (P < .05) was observed for all groups and remained after 14 days (P > .05). C albicans was the most prevalent microorganism before treatment, followed by C tropicalis, C glabrata, and C krusei, regardless of the group and time evaluated. U tomentosa gel had the same effect as 2% miconazole gel. U tomentosa gel is an effective topical adjuvant treatment for denture stomatitis.

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

Estimated Disability-adjusted Life Years Averted By Long-term Provision Of Long Acting Contraceptive Methods In A Brazilian Clinic.

What is the contribution of the provision, at no cost for users, of long acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC; copper intrauterine device [IUD], the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system [LNG-IUS], contraceptive implants and depot-medroxyprogesterone [DMPA] injection) towards the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted through a Brazilian university-based clinic established over 30 years ago. Over the last 10 years of evaluation, provision of LARC methods and DMPA by the clinic are estimated to have contributed to DALY averted by between 37 and 60 maternal deaths, 315-424 child mortalities, 634-853 combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. LARC methods are associated with a high contraceptive effectiveness when compared with contraceptive methods which need frequent attention; perhaps because LARC methods are independent of individual or couple compliance. However, in general previous studies have evaluated contraceptive methods during clinical studies over a short period of time, or not more than 10 years. Furthermore, information regarding the estimation of the DALY averted is scarce. We reviewed 50 004 medical charts from women who consulted for the first time looking for a contraceptive method over the period from 2 January 1980 through 31 December 2012. Women who consulted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Campinas, Brazil were new users and users switching contraceptive, including the copper IUD (n = 13 826), the LNG-IUS (n = 1525), implants (n = 277) and DMPA (n = 9387). Estimation of the DALY averted included maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality and unsafe abortions averted. We obtained 29 416 contraceptive segments of use including 25 009 contraceptive segments of use from 20 821 new users or switchers to any LARC method or DMPA with at least 1 year of follow-up. The mean (± SD) age of the women at first consultation ranged from 25.3 ± 5.7 (range 12-47) years in the 1980s, to 31.9 ± 7.4 (range 16-50) years in 2010-2011. The most common contraceptive chosen at the first consultation was copper IUD (48.3, 74.5 and 64.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively). For an evaluation over 20 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates (SEM) were 0.4 (0.2), 2.8 (2.1), 4.0 (0.4) and 1.3 (0.4) for the LNG-IUS, the implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively and cumulative continuation rates (SEM) were 15.1 (3.7), 3.9 (1.4), 14.1 (0.6) and 7.3 (1.7) for the LNG-IUS, implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively (P < 0.001). Over the last 10 years of evaluation, the estimation of the contribution of the clinic through the provision of LARC methods and DMPA to DALY averted was 37-60 maternal deaths; between 315 and 424 child mortalities; combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality of between 634 and 853, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. The main limitations are the number of women who never returned to the clinic (overall 14% among the four methods under evaluation); consequently the pregnancy rate could be different. Other limitations include the analysis of two kinds of copper IUD and two kinds of contraceptive implants as the same IUD or implant, and the low number of users of implants. In addition, the DALY calculation relies on a number of estimates, which may vary in different parts of the world. LARC methods and DMPA are highly effective and women who were well-counselled used these methods for a long time. The benefit of averting maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality, and unsafe abortions is an example to health policy makers to implement more family planning programmes and to offer contraceptive methods, mainly LARC and DMPA, at no cost or at affordable cost for the underprivileged population. This study received partial financial support from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), grant # 2012/12810-4 and from the National Research Council (CNPq), grant #573747/2008-3. B.F.B., M.P.G., and V.M.C. were fellows from the scientific initiation programme from FAPESP. Since the year 2001, all the TCu380A IUD were donated by Injeflex, São Paulo, Brazil, and from the year 2006 all the LNG-IUS were donated by the International Contraceptive Access Foundation (ICA), Turku, Finland. Both donations are as unrestricted grants. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest associated with this study.

Evaluation Of The Effect Of Different Methods Of Microabrasion And Polishing On Surface Roughness Of Dental Enamel.

The microabrasion technique of enamel consists of selectively abrading the discolored areas or causing superficial structural changes in a selective way. In microabrasion technique, abrasive products associated with acids are used, and the evaluation of enamel roughness after this treatment, as well as surface polishing, is necessary. This in-vitro study evaluated the enamel roughness after microabrasion, followed by different polishing techniques. Roughness analyses were performed before microabrasion (L1), after microabrasion (L2), and after polishing (L3).Thus, 60 bovine incisive teeth divided into two groups were selected (n=30): G1- 37% phosphoric acid (37%) (Dentsply) and pumice; G2- hydrochloric acid (6.6%) associated with silicon carbide (Opalustre - Ultradent). Thereafter, the groups were divided into three sub-groups (n=10), according to the system of polishing: A - Fine and superfine granulation aluminum oxide discs (SofLex 3M); B - Diamond Paste (FGM) associated with felt discs (FGM); C - Silicone tips (Enhance - Dentsply). A PROC MIXED procedure was applied after data exploratory analysis, as well as the Tukey-Kramer test (5%). No statistical differences were found between G1 and G2 groups. L2 differed statistically from L1 and showed superior amounts of roughness. Differences in the amounts of post-polishing roughness for specific groups (1A, 2B, and 1C) arose, which demonstrated less roughness in L3 and differed statistically from L2 in the polishing system. All products increased enamel roughness, and the effectiveness of the polishing systems was dependent upon the abrasive used.

Effects Of Sterilization Methods On The Physical, Chemical, And Biological Properties Of Silk Fibroin Membranes.

Silk fibroin has been widely explored for many biomedical applications, due to its biocompatibility and biodegradability. Sterilization is a fundamental step in biomaterials processing and it must not jeopardize the functionality of medical devices. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of different sterilization methods in the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of dense and porous silk fibroin membranes. Silk fibroin membranes were treated by several procedures: immersion in 70% ethanol solution, ultraviolet radiation, autoclave, ethylene oxide, and gamma radiation, and were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, Fourier-transformed infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction, tensile strength and in vitro cytotoxicity to Chinese hamster ovary cells. The results indicated that the sterilization methods did not cause perceivable morphological changes in the membranes and the membranes were not toxic to cells. The sterilization methods that used organic solvent or an increased humidity and/or temperature (70% ethanol, autoclave, and ethylene oxide) increased the silk II content in the membranes: the dense membranes became more brittle, while the porous membranes showed increased strength at break. Membranes that underwent sterilization by UV and gamma radiation presented properties similar to the nonsterilized membranes, mainly for tensile strength and FTIR results.

Classification Of Frankfurters By Ft-raman Spectroscopy And Chemometric Methods.

Frankfurters are widely consumed all over the world, and the production requires a wide range of meat and non-meat ingredients. Due to these characteristics, frankfurters are products that can be easily adulterated with lower value meats, and the presence of undeclared species. Adulterations are often still difficult to detect, due the fact that the adulterant components are usually very similar to the authentic product. In this work, FT-Raman spectroscopy was employed as a rapid technique for assessing the quality of frankfurters. Based on information provided by the Raman spectra, a multivariate classification model was developed to identify the frankfurter type. The aim was to study three types of frankfurters (chicken, turkey and mixed meat) according to their Raman spectra, based on the fatty vibrational bands. Classification model was built using partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and the performance model was evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, efficiency and Matthews's correlation coefficient. The PLS-DA models give sensitivity and specificity values on the test set in the ranges of 88%-100%, showing good performance of the classification models. The work shows the Raman spectroscopy with chemometric tools can be used as an analytical tool in quality control of frankfurters.