Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Desenvolupament d'algorismes biològicament inspirats basats en Support Vector Machines

L'objectiu d'aquest projecte ha estat el desenvolupament d'algorismes biològicament inspirats per a l'olfacció artificial. Per a assolir-lo ens hem basat en el paradigma de les màquines amb suport vectorial. Hem construit algoritmes que imitaven els processos computacionals dels diferents sistemes que formen el sistema olfactiu dels insectes, especialment de la llagosta Schistocerca gregaria. Ens hem centrat en el lòbuls de les antenes, i en el cos fungiforme. El primer està considerat un dispositiu de codificació de les olors, que a partir de la resposta temporal dels receptors olfactius a les antenes genera un patró d'activació espaial i temporal. Quant al cos fungiforme es considera que la seva funció és la d'una memòria per als olors, així com un centre per a la integració multi-sensorial. El primer pas ha estat la construcció de models detallats dels dos sistemes. A continuació, hem utilitzat aquests models per a processar diferents tipus de senyals amb l'objectiu de abstraure els principis computacionals subjacents. Finalment, hem avaluat les capacitats d'aquests models abstractes, i els hem utilitzat per al processat de dades provinents de sensors de gasos. Els resultats mostren que el models abstractes tenen millor comportament front el soroll i més capacitat d'emmagatzematge de records que altres models més clàssics, com ara les memòries associatives de Hopfield o fins i tot en determinades circumstàncies que les mateixes Support Vector Machines.

Statistical discrimination of steroid profiles in doping control with support vector machines.

Due to their performance enhancing properties, use of anabolic steroids (e.g. testosterone, nandrolone, etc.) is banned in elite sports. Therefore, doping control laboratories accredited by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) screen among others for these prohibited substances in urine. It is particularly challenging to detect misuse with naturally occurring anabolic steroids such as testosterone (T), which is a popular ergogenic agent in sports and society. To screen for misuse with these compounds, drug testing laboratories monitor the urinary concentrations of endogenous steroid metabolites and their ratios, which constitute the steroid profile and compare them with reference ranges to detect unnaturally high values. However, the interpretation of the steroid profile is difficult due to large inter-individual variances, various confounding factors and different endogenous steroids marketed that influence the steroid profile in various ways. A support vector machine (SVM) algorithm was developed to statistically evaluate urinary steroid profiles composed of an extended range of steroid profile metabolites. This model makes the interpretation of the analytical data in the quest for deviating steroid profiles feasible and shows its versatility towards different kinds of misused endogenous steroids. The SVM model outperforms the current biomarkers with respect to detection sensitivity and accuracy, particularly when it is coupled to individual data as stored in the Athlete Biological Passport.

Personalized modeling for drug concentration prediction using Support Vector Machine

Building a personalized model to describe the drug concentration inside the human body for each patient is highly important to the clinical practice and demanding to the modeling tools. Instead of using traditional explicit methods, in this paper we propose a machine learning approach to describe the relation between the drug concentration and patients' features. Machine learning has been largely applied to analyze data in various domains, but it is still new to personalized medicine, especially dose individualization. We focus mainly on the prediction of the drug concentrations as well as the analysis of different features' influence. Models are built based on Support Vector Machine and the prediction results are compared with the traditional analytical models.

Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Individual Classification of Mild Cognitive Impairment Subtypes by Support Vector Machine Analysis of White Matter DTI.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: MCI was recently subdivided into sd-aMCI, sd-fMCI, and md-aMCI. The current investigation aimed to discriminate between MCI subtypes by using DTI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixty-six prospective participants were included: 18 with sd-aMCI, 13 with sd-fMCI, and 35 with md-aMCI. Statistics included group comparisons using TBSS and individual classification using SVMs. RESULTS: The group-level analysis revealed a decrease in FA in md-aMCI versus sd-aMCI in an extensive bilateral, right-dominant network, and a more pronounced reduction of FA in md-aMCI compared with sd-fMCI in right inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus and inferior longitudinal fasciculus. The comparison between sd-fMCI and sd-aMCI, as well as the analysis of the other diffusion parameters, yielded no significant group differences. The individual-level SVM analysis provided discrimination between the MCI subtypes with accuracies around 97%. The major limitation is the relatively small number of cases of MCI. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that, at the group level, the md-aMCI subgroup has the most pronounced damage in white matter integrity. Individually, SVM analysis of white matter FA provided highly accurate classification of MCI subtypes.

Uncertainty Quantification with Support Vector Regression Prediction Models

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.

Geomodelling of a fluvial system with semi-supervised support vector regression

Fluvial deposits are a challenge for modelling flow in sub-surface reservoirs. Connectivity and continuity of permeable bodies have a major impact on fluid flow in porous media. Contemporary object-based and multipoint statistics methods face a problem of robust representation of connected structures. An alternative approach to model petrophysical properties is based on machine learning algorithm ? Support Vector Regression (SVR). Semi-supervised SVR is able to establish spatial connectivity taking into account the prior knowledge on natural similarities. SVR as a learning algorithm is robust to noise and captures dependencies from all available data. Semi-supervised SVR applied to a synthetic fluvial reservoir demonstrated robust results, which are well matched to the flow performance

Example-based support vector machine for drug concentration analysis

Machine learning has been largely applied to analyze data in various domains, but it is still new to personalized medicine, especially dose individualization. In this paper, we focus on the prediction of drug concentrations using Support Vector Machines (S VM) and the analysis of the influence of each feature to the prediction results. Our study shows that SVM-based approaches achieve similar prediction results compared with pharmacokinetic model. The two proposed example-based SVM methods demonstrate that the individual features help to increase the accuracy in the predictions of drug concentration with a reduced library of training data.

Monitoring network optimisation for spatial data classification using support vector machines

The paper presents a novel method for monitoring network optimisation, based on a recent machine learning technique known as support vector machine. It is problem-oriented in the sense that it directly answers the question of whether the advised spatial location is important for the classification model. The method can be used to increase the accuracy of classification models by taking a small number of additional measurements. Traditionally, network optimisation is performed by means of the analysis of the kriging variances. The comparison of the method with the traditional approach is presented on a real case study with climate data.

Individual prediction of cognitive decline in mild cognitive impairment using support vector machine-based analysis of diffusion tensor imaging data.

Although cross-sectional diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies revealed significant white matter changes in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), the utility of this technique in predicting further cognitive decline is debated. Thirty-five healthy controls (HC) and 67 MCI subjects with DTI baseline data were neuropsychologically assessed at one year. Among them, there were 40 stable (sMCI; 9 single domain amnestic, 7 single domain frontal, 24 multiple domain) and 27 were progressive (pMCI; 7 single domain amnestic, 4 single domain frontal, 16 multiple domain). Fractional anisotropy (FA) and longitudinal, radial, and mean diffusivity were measured using Tract-Based Spatial Statistics. Statistics included group comparisons and individual classification of MCI cases using support vector machines (SVM). FA was significantly higher in HC compared to MCI in a distributed network including the ventral part of the corpus callosum, right temporal and frontal pathways. There were no significant group-level differences between sMCI versus pMCI or between MCI subtypes after correction for multiple comparisons. However, SVM analysis allowed for an individual classification with accuracies up to 91.4% (HC versus MCI) and 98.4% (sMCI versus pMCI). When considering the MCI subgroups separately, the minimum SVM classification accuracy for stable versus progressive cognitive decline was 97.5% in the multiple domain MCI group. SVM analysis of DTI data provided highly accurate individual classification of stable versus progressive MCI regardless of MCI subtype, indicating that this method may become an easily applicable tool for early individual detection of MCI subjects evolving to dementia.