Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Risk, ambiguity, and diversification

Attitudes toward risk influence the decision to diversify among uncertain options. Yet, because in most situations the options are ambiguous, attitudes toward ambiguity may also play an important role. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect of ambiguity on the decision to diversify. I find that diversification is more prevalent and more persistent under ambiguity than under risk. Moreover, excess diversification under ambiguity is driven by participants who stick with a status quo gamble when diversification among gambles is not feasible. This behavioral pattern cannot be accommodated by major theories of choice under ambiguity.

Educación para la ciudadanía democrática en la cultura digital.

Resumen tomado de la publicación. - El artículo forma parte de una sección de la revista dedicada a: Investigaciones

Jogando com os precedentes: regras, analogias, princípios

Este artigo analisa decisões recentes do STF envolvendo a aplicação de súmulas vinculantes à luz de três concepções de precedentes, desenvolvidas por F. Schauer (precedentes como regras), C. Sunstein (precedentes como analogias) e R. Dworkin (precedentes como princípios). Após a exposição dos principais aspectos de cada uma dessas teorias baseadas, respectivamente, nos conceitos de generalizações enraizadas, acordos teóricos incompletos e romance em cadeia, e discute os fundamentos que elas podem oferecer para o uso de precedentes no direito brasileiro.

The Myth of the Rational Market: Nudging Each Other Away from Fool’s Gold

A flurry of media commentary and several new books are focused on the recent financial crisis and near economic collapse. A Newsweek article by Zakaria (2009), “Greed is Good (To a Point),” suggests reconsidering the role of greed in capitalism. This is also the theme in Fools Gold (Tett, 2009), a story about the way derivatives markets have evolved: showing greed at its worst. In many ways this is the core source of the current set of problems. In some sense, these perspectives are integrated in The Myth of the Rational Market by Fox (2009), who traces the thinking on the efficient market hypothesis, now understood for what it is: a myth. Both books are based in large part on interviews with major players in the crisis. There are also books drawing mainly on science, but still quite accessible to general readers, as represented in Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein (2008). Both have done extensive research on human foibles in economic choice. There is also Animal Spirits (Akerlof and Schiller, 2009), a book about what Keynesian economics is really about, a look at human forces at work. Akerlof is a Nobel prize winner in economics, who before this has pointed to the problems with presuming rationality in real markets. Schiller is one of the few economists who predicted these events.

Entre lo riesgoso y lo político : hacia una teoría posmarxista del riesgo

A partir del análisis crítico de diversas teorías del riesgo propuestas por autores como Paul Slovic, CassSunstein, Mary Douglas y Ulrich Beck, este artículo delinea algunos fundamentos para una teoría posmarxista del riesgo. Contra cualquier pretendida "Sociedad Mundial del Riesgo" se identificará una específica Lógica del Riesgo capaz de poseer alcance mundial pero que, más allá de su vocación utópica, es concebida como incapaz de lograr el cierre final de lo social, ya sea mediante los instrumentos de un "Estado costo-beneficio" o del desenvolvimiento dialéctico necesario de la sociedad industrial.

Entre lo riesgoso y lo político : hacia una teoría posmarxista del riesgo

A partir del análisis crítico de diversas teorías del riesgo propuestas por autores como Paul Slovic, CassSunstein, Mary Douglas y Ulrich Beck, este artículo delinea algunos fundamentos para una teoría posmarxista del riesgo. Contra cualquier pretendida "Sociedad Mundial del Riesgo" se identificará una específica Lógica del Riesgo capaz de poseer alcance mundial pero que, más allá de su vocación utópica, es concebida como incapaz de lograr el cierre final de lo social, ya sea mediante los instrumentos de un "Estado costo-beneficio" o del desenvolvimiento dialéctico necesario de la sociedad industrial.

Entre lo riesgoso y lo político : hacia una teoría posmarxista del riesgo

A partir del análisis crítico de diversas teorías del riesgo propuestas por autores como Paul Slovic, CassSunstein, Mary Douglas y Ulrich Beck, este artículo delinea algunos fundamentos para una teoría posmarxista del riesgo. Contra cualquier pretendida "Sociedad Mundial del Riesgo" se identificará una específica Lógica del Riesgo capaz de poseer alcance mundial pero que, más allá de su vocación utópica, es concebida como incapaz de lograr el cierre final de lo social, ya sea mediante los instrumentos de un "Estado costo-beneficio" o del desenvolvimiento dialéctico necesario de la sociedad industrial.