Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Intraseasonal Variation of the Summer Monsoon I:Observational Aspects

Within the summer monsoon, the circulation and rainfall over the Indian region exhibit large variations over the synoptic scale of 3-7 days and the supersynoptic scales of 10 days and longer. In this paper we discuss some facets of intraseasonal variation on the supersynoptic scale on the basis of existing observational studies and some new analysis. The major variation of the summer monsoon rainfall on this scale is the active-break cycle. The deep convection over the Indian region on a typical day in the active phase is organized over thousands of kilometers in the zonal direction and is associated with a tropical convergence zone (TCZ). The intraseasonal variations on the supersynoptic scale are also coherent on these scales and are related to the space-time variation of the large-scale TCZ. The latitudinal distribution of the occurrence of the TCZ is bimodal with the primary mode over the heated continent and a secondary mode over the ocean. The variation of the continental TCZ is generally out of phase with that of the oceanic TCZ. During the active spells, the TCZ persists over the continent in the monsoon zone. The revival from breaks occurs either by northward propagation of the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean or by genesis of a disturbance in the monsoon zone (often as a result of westward propagations from W. Pacific). The mechanisms governing the fluctuation between active spells and breaks, the interphase transition and the complex interactions of the TCZ over the Indian subcontinent with the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the W. Pacific, have yet to be completely understood.

Multi-scale interactions and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon

Following the seminal work of Charney and Shukla (198 1), the tropical climate is recognised to be more predictable than extra tropical climate as it is largely forced by 'external' slowly varying forcing and less sensitive to initial conditions. However, the Indian summer monsoon is an exception within the tropics where 'internal' low frequency (LF) oscillations seem to make significant contribution to its interannual variability (IAV) and makes it sensitive to initial conditions. Quantitative estimate of contribution of 'internal' dynamics to IAV of Indian monsoon is made using long experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and through analysis of long daily observations. Both AGCM experiments and observations indicate that more than 50% of IAV of the monsoon is contributed by 'internal' dynamics making the predictable signal (external component) burried in unpredictable noise (internal component) of comparable amplitude. Better understanding of the nature of the 'internal' LF variability is crucial for any improvement in predicition of seasonal mean monsoon. Nature of 'internal' LF variability of the monsoon and mechanism responsible for it are investigated and shown that vigorous monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) with time scale between 10-70 days are primarily responsible for generating the 'internal' IAV. The monsoon ISO's do this through scale interactions with synoptic disturbances (1-7 day time scale) on one hand and the annual cycle on the other. The spatial structure of the monsoon ISO's is similar to that of the seasonal mean. It is shown that frequency of occurance of strong (weak) phases of the ISO is different in different seasons giving rise to stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. Change in the large scale circulation during strong (weak) phases of the ISO make it favourable (inhibiting) for cyclogenesis and gives rise to space time clustering of synoptic activity. This process leads to enhanced (reduced) rainfall in seasons of higher frequency of occurence strong (weak) phases of monsoon ISO.

A study of vertical cloud structure of the Indian summer monsoon using CloudSat data

Precise specification of the vertical distribution of cloud optical properties is important to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying the radiative impacts of clouds. The new global observations of vertical profiles of clouds from the CloudSat mission provide opportunities to describe cloud structures and to improve parameterization of clouds in the weather and climate prediction models. In this study, four years (2007-2010) of observations of vertical structure of clouds from the CloudSat cloud profiling radar have been used to document the mean vertical structure of clouds associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its intra-seasonal variability. Active and break monsoon spells associated with the intra-seasonal variability of ISM have been identified by an objective criterion. For the present analysis, we considered CloudSat derived column integrated cloud liquid and ice water, and vertically profiles of cloud liquid and ice water content. Over the South Asian monsoon region, deep convective clouds with large vertical extent (up to 14 km) and large values of cloud water and ice content are observed over the north Bay of Bengal. Deep clouds with large ice water content are also observed over north Arabian Sea and adjoining northwest India, along the west coast of India and the south equatorial Indian Ocean. The active monsoon spells are characterized by enhanced deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, west coast of India and northeast Arabian Sea and suppressed convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the Bay of Bengal, cloud liquid water content and ice water content is enhanced by similar to 90 and similar to 200 % respectively during the active spells. An interesting feature associated with the active spell is the vertical tilting structure of positive CLWC and CIWC anomalies over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which suggests a pre-conditioning process for the northward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal variability. It is also observed that during the break spells, clouds are not completely suppressed over central India. Instead, clouds with smaller vertical extent (3-5 km) are observed due to the presence of a heat low type of circulation. The present results will be useful for validating the vertical structure of clouds in weather and climate prediction models.

Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

The distribution of ctenophora in the Patuxent estuary during the summer of 1958

Investigation of Ctenophores in the Chesapeake Bay area, includes some aspects of their life history, growth, reproduction, feeding and food habits, abundance and distribution. the purpose of the entire project is to supplement and add to the biological knowledge and understanding of ctenophores as a group and of the several individual species found int he area to be studied. Includes possible factors involved and implications also being looked at. (PDF contains 33 pages)

The Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Fishery of the Middle Atlantic Bight and Southern New England Waters

Summer flounder, Paralichthys dentatus, scup, Stenotomus chrysops, and black sea bass, Centropristis striata, cooccur within the Middle Atlantic Bight and off southern New England and are important components of commercial and recreational fisheries. The commercial otter trawl fishery for these species is primarily a winter fishery, whereas the recreational fishery takes place between late spring and autumn. The otter trawl fishery generally targets summer flounder, and less frequently scup, while black sea bass occurs as bycatch. Trips in which all three species were present yielded highest aggregate landings per unit of effort (LPUE) levels and occurred more often than trips landing only one or two species. More than 50% of the trips in the trawl fishery landed at least two of the three species. In contrast, greater than 75% of the recreational landings of each species occurred as a result of trips landing only one species. Differences in the fisheries resulted from the interactions of seasonal changes in species distributions and gear selectivity. (PDF file contains 18 pages.)

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

Migratory and within-estuary behaviors of adult Summer Flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) in a lagoon system of the southern mid-Atlantic Bight

We monitored the movements of 45 adult Summer Flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) between June 2007 and July 2008 through the use of passive acoustic telemetry to elucidate migratory and within-estuary behaviors in a lagoon system of the southern mid-Atlantic Bight. Between 8 June and 10 October 2007, fish resided primarily in the deeper (>3 m) regions of the system and exhibited low levels of large-scale (100s of meters) activity. Mean residence time within this estuarine lagoon system was conservatively estimated to be 130 days (range: 18–223 days), which is 1.5 times longer than the residence time previously reported for Summer Flounder in a similar estuarine habitat ~250 km to the north. The majority of fish remained within the lagoon system until mid-October, although some fish dispersed earlier and some of them appeared to disperse temporarily (i.e., exited the system for at least 14 consecutive days before returning). Larger fish were more likely to disperse before mid-October than smaller fish and may have moved to other estuaries or the inner continental shelf. Fish that dispersed after mid-October were more likely to return to the lagoon system the following spring than were fish that dispersed before mid-October. In 2008, fish returned to the system between 7 February and 7 April. Dispersals and returns most closely followed seasonal changes in mean water temperature, but photoperiod and other factors also may have played a role in large-scale movements of Summer Flounder.

Circulation pattern of the Egyptian Mediterranean waters during winter and summer seasons

The water circulation of the Egyptian Mediterranean waters was computed during winter and summer seasons using the dynamic method. The reference level was set at the 1000db surface. The results showed that the surface circulation is dominated by the Atlantic water inflow along the North African coast and by two major gyres, the Mersa Matruth anticyclonic gyre and El-Arish cyclonic gyre. The results showed a seasonal reversal of El-Arish gyre, being cyclonic in winter and anticyclonic in summer. El-Arish gyre had not been previously measured. The geostrophic current velocity at the edges of the Mersa Matruth gyre varied between 12.5 and 29.1cm/sec in winter and between 6.5 and 13.1cm/sec in summer. The current velocity reached its maximum values (>40cm/sec) at El-Arish gyre. The current velocity at the two gyres decreased with increasing depth. The North African Current affects the surface waters down to a depth of 100m, and that its mean velocity varies between 6 and 38cm/sec.

Heat budget studies of the north Arabian Sea during summer and winter seasons, 1992

In this study heat budget components and momentum flux for August and January 1992 over the north Arabian Sea are computed. The marine meteorological data measured on board during the cruises of PAK-US joint project (NASEER) are used for the computation. Significant differences were found in the heat budget components as well as in the momentum flux during different monsoon periods over the north Arabian Sea. The latent heat flux was always positive and attributed to the large vapour pressure gradient. The computed moisture and latent heat fluxes in January were higher than August The highest value of latent heat flux 309 W/m2 at station 8 was evaluated. These higher latent heat fluxes were due to the large vapour pressure gradient, air-sea temperature difference, the wind speed, and the prevailing wind direction (from north and northeast). Negative values of sensible heat fluxes in both seasons indicate that the heat transfer was from the atmosphere to the ocean. The negative values of net heat gain indicate that the sea surface field became an energy sink: or the sea surface supplied more energy to the atmosphere than it received from it. Large variation in the momentum flux mainly attributed to the variation in the wind speed. Aerial averages of heat and momentum fluxes were also computed.

On further improvement of the techinque of evaluating summer institutes

Data from an earlier study are reanalyzed to improve upon the evaluation measures of summer institutes. The Summer Institute Efficiency Index is improved by using weighted geometric mean using different ranks as weights for the several dimensions. The coverage utility index is improved by taking the ratings given by all the participants.