Some bounds of loss in classical semideterministic immunization

Since Samuelson, Redington and Fisher and Weil, duration and immunization are very important topics in bond portfolio analysis from both a theoretical and a practical point of view. Many results have been established, especially in semi-deterministic framework. As regards, however, the loss may be sustained, we do not think that the subject has been investigated enough, except for the results found in the wake of the theorem of Fong and Vasicek. In this paper we present some results relating to the limitation of the loss in the case of local immunization for multiple liabilities.

Severe dengue in the early postoperative period after kidney transplantation: two case reports from Hospital Geral de Fortaleza

Abstract: Dengue is an arbovirosis that ranges from an asymptomatic presentation to a more severe disease, which is characterized by a vascular leakage syndrome where abdominal pain is a major symptom. Transplant recipients are immunosuppressed and are less likely to develop a severe form of the disease because of a reduction in immune-mediated responses that trigger plasma extravasation events. Herein, we report two cases of severe dengue in the early postoperative period of two kidney transplant recipients. Considering the severity of the cases, we emphasize the importance of dengue screening immediately before transplantation in areas endemic for the disease.

Current Account imbalances, thriftiness and the real exchange rate in a growing economy

This paper analyses the theoretical relevance of the dynamical aspects of growth on the discussion about the observed positive correlation between per capita real income and real exchange rates. With this purpose, we develop a simple exogenous growth model where the internal, external and intertemporal equilibrium conditions of a typical macroeconomic model are imposed; this last one through the inclusion of a balanced growth path for the foreign assets accumulation. The main result under this consideration is that the relationship defended by the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is no more so straightforward. In our particular approach, the mentioned bilateral relationship depends on a parameter measuring thriftiness in the economy. Therefore, the probability of ending up with a positive relationship between growth and real exchange rates -as the classical economic theory predicts- will be higher when the economy is able to maintain a minimum saving ratio. Moreover, given that our model considers a simple Keynesian consumption function, some explosive paths can also be possible.

Price level convergence, purchasing power parity and multiple structural breaks: an application to US cities

This article provides a fresh methodological and empirical approach for assessing price level convergence and its relation to purchasing power parity (PPP) using annual price data for seventeen US cities. We suggest a new procedure that can handle a wide range of PPP concepts in the presence of multiple structural breaks using all possible pairs of real exchange rates. To deal with cross-sectional dependence, we use both cross-sectional demeaned data and a parametric bootstrap approach. In general, we find more evidence for stationarity when the parity restriction is not imposed, while imposing parity restriction provides leads toward the rejection of the panel stationar- ity. Our results can be embedded on the view of the Balassa-Samuelson approach, but where the slope of the time trend is allowed to change in the long-run. The median half-life point estimate are found to be lower than the consensus view regardless of the parity restriction.

Revealed cardinal preference

I prove that as long as we allow the marginal utility for money (lambda) to vary between purchases (similarly to the budget) then the quasi-linear and the ordinal budget-constrained models rationalize the same data. However, we know that lambda is approximately constant. I provide a simple constructive proof for the necessary and sufficient condition for the constant lambda rationalization, which I argue should replace the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference in empirical studies of consumer behavior. 'Go Cardinals!' It is the minimal requirement of any scientifi c theory that it is consistent with the data it is trying to explain. In the case of (Hicksian) consumer theory it was revealed preference -introduced by Samuelson (1938,1948) - that provided an empirical test to satisfy this need. At that time most of economic reasoning was done in terms of a competitive general equilibrium, a concept abstract enough so that it can be built on the ordinal preferences over baskets of goods - even if the extremely specialized ones of Arrow and Debreu. However, starting in the sixties, economics has moved beyond the 'invisible hand' explanation of how -even competitive- markets operate. A seemingly unavoidable step of this 'revolution' was that ever since, most economic research has been carried out in a partial equilibrium context. Now, the partial equilibrium approach does not mean that the rest of the markets are ignored, rather that they are held constant. In other words, there is a special commodity -call it money - that reflects the trade-offs of moving purchasing power across markets. As a result, the basic building block of consumer behavior in partial equilibrium is no longer the consumer's preferences over goods, rather her valuation of them, in terms of money. This new paradigm necessitates a new theory of revealed preference.

Effect of training-sample size and classification difficulty on the accuracy of genomic predictors.

Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem.

Monte Carlo simulations of metasomatic enrichment in the lithosphere and implications for the source of alkaline basalts

One hypothesis for the origin of alkaline lavas erupted on oceanic islands and in intracontinental settings is that they represent the melts of amphibole-rich veins in the lithosphere (or melts of their dehydrated equivalents if metasomatized lithosphere is recycled into the convecting mantle). Amphibole-rich veins are interpreted as cumulates produced by crystallization of low-degree melts of the underlying asthenosphere as they ascend through the lithosphere. We present the results of trace-element modelling of the formation and melting of veins formed in this way with the goal of testing this hypothesis and for predicting how variability in the formation and subsequent melting of such cumulates (and adjacent cryptically and modally metasomatized lithospheric peridotite) would be manifested in magmas generated by such a process. Because the high-pressure phase equilibria of hydrous near-solidus melts of garnet lherzolite are poorly constrained and given the likely high variability of the hypothesized accumulation and remelting processes, we used Monte Carlo techniques to estimate how uncertainties in the model parameters (e.g. the compositions of the asthenospheric sources, their trace-element contents, and their degree of melting; the modal proportions of crystallizing phases, including accessory phases, as the asthenospheric partial melts ascend and crystallize in the lithosphere; the amount of metasomatism of the peridotitic country rock; the degree of melting of the cumulates and the amount of melt derived from the metasomatized country rock) propagate through the process and manifest themselves as variability in the trace-element contents and radiogenic isotopic ratios of model vein compositions and erupted alkaline magma compositions. We then compare the results of the models with amphibole observed in lithospheric veins and with oceanic and continental alkaline magmas. While the trace-element patterns of the near-solidus peridotite melts, the initial anhydrous cumulate assemblage (clinopyroxene +/- garnet +/- olivine +/- orthopyroxene), and the modelled coexisting liquids do not match the patterns observed in alkaline lavas, our calculations show that with further crystallization and the appearance of amphibole (and accessory minerals such as rutile, ilmenite, apatite, etc.) the calculated cumulate assemblages have trace-element patterns that closely match those observed in the veins and lavas. These calculated hydrous cumulate assemblages are highly enriched in incompatible trace elements and share many similarities with the trace-element patterns of alkaline basalts observed in oceanic or continental setting such as positive Nb/La, negative Ce/Pb, and similiar slopes of the rare earth elements. By varying the proportions of trapped liquid and thus simulating the cryptic and modal metasomatism observed in peridotite that surrounds these veins, we can model the variations in Ba/Nb, Ce/Pb, and Nb/U ratios that are observed in alkaline basalts. If the isotopic compositions of the initial low-degree peridotite melts are similar to the range observed in mid-ocean ridge basalt, our model calculations produce cumulates that would have isotopic compositions similar to those observed in most alkaline ocean island basalt (OIB) and continental magmas after similar to 0 center dot 15 Gyr. However, to produce alkaline basalts with HIMU isotopic compositions requires much longer residence times (i.e. 1-2 Gyr), consistent with subduction and recycling of metasomatized lithosphere through the mantle. such as a heterogeneous asthenosphere. These modelling results support the interpretation proposed by various researchers that amphibole-bearing veins represent cumulates formed during the differentiation of a volatile-bearing low-degree peridotite melt and that these cumulates are significant components of the sources of alkaline OIB and continental magmas. The results of the forward models provide the potential for detailed tests of this class of hypotheses for the origin of alkaline magmas worldwide and for interpreting major and minor aspects of the geochemical variability of these magmas.

Environnement et capacités cognitives chez le rat : compétition entre les facteurs qui influencent les stratégies spatiales

RESUME Ce travail se propose de discuter des résultats comportementaux observés chez des rats obtenus dans trois paradigmes expérimentaux différents : le bassin de Morris (Morris Water Maze, Morris, 1984) ; la table à trous (Homing Board, Schenk, 1989) et le labyrinthe radial (Radial Arm Maze, Olton et Samuelson, 1976). Les deux premières tâches sont spatiales et permettent un apprentissage de place en environnements contrôlés, et la troisième est une tâche comportementale qui différencie deux habiletés particulières, celle d'élimination (basée sur la mémoire de travail) et celle de sélection (basée sur la mémoire de référence). La discussion des résultats porte sur les stratégies de navigation utilisées par les animaux pour résoudre les tâches et plus précisément sur les facteurs qui peuvent influencer le choix de ces stratégies. Le facteur environnemental (environnement contrôlé) et le facteur cognitif (vieillissement) représentent les variables étudiées ici. C'est ainsi que certaines hypothèses communément acceptées ont été malmenées par nos résultats. Or si l'espace est habituellement supposé homogène (toutes les positions spatiales présentent le même degré de difficulté lors d'un apprentissage en champ ouvert), ce travail établit qu'une position associée -sans contiguïté - à l'un des trois indices visuels situés dans la périphérie de l'environnement est plus difficile à apprendre qu'une position située entre deux des trois indices. Deuxièmement, alors qu'il est admis que l'apprentissage d'une place dans un environnement riche requiert le même type d'information. dans la bassin de Morris (tâche nagée) que sur la table à trous (tâche marchée), nous avons montré que la discrimination spatiale en bassin ne peut être assurée par les trois indices visuels périphériques et nécessite la présence d'au moins un élément supplémentaire. Enfin, l'étude du vieillissement a souvent montré que l'âge réduit les capacités cognitives nécessaires à la navigation spatiale, conduisant à un déficit général des performances d'un animal sénescent, alors que dans notre travail, nous avons trouvé les animaux âgés plus performants et plus efficaces que les adultes dans une tâche particulière de collecte de nourriture. Ces expériences s'inscrivent dans une étude générale qui met à l'épreuve le modèle théorique proposé pax Schenk et Jacobs (2003), selon lequel l'encodage de la carte cognitive (Tolman, 1948 ; O'Keefe et Nadel, 1978) se ferait dans l'hippocampe par l'activité de deux modules complémentaires :d'une part le CA3 - Gyrus Denté pour le traitement d'une trame spatiale basée sur des éléments directionnels et Jou distribués en gradient (bearing map) et d'autre part le CAl - Subiculum pour le traitement des représentations locales basées sur les positions relatives des éléments fixes de l'environnement (sketch map). SUMMARY This work proposes to talk about behavioural results observed in three different experimental paradigms with rats: the Morris Water Maze (Morris, 1984); the Homing Board (Schenk, 1989) and the Radial Arm Maze (Olton and Samuelson, 1976). The two first tasks are spatial ones and allow place learning in controlled environments. The third one is a behavioural task which contrasts two particular skills, the elimination (based on working memory) and the selection one (based on reference memory). The topic of the discussion will be the navigation strategies used by animals to solve the different tasks, and more precisely the factors which can bias this strategies' choice. The environmental (controlled) and the cognitive (aging) factors are the variables studied here. Thus, some hypotheses usually accepted were manhandled by our results. Indeed, if space is habitually homogenously considered (all spatial positions present the same degree of difficulty in an open field learning), this work establishes that an associated position -without being adjacent - to one of the three visual cues localised in the environmental periphery is more difficult to learn than a configurationnel position (situated between two of the three cues). Secondly, if it is received that place learning in a rich environment requires the same information in the Morris water maze (swimming task) that on the Homing board (walking task), we showed that spatial discrimination in the water maze can't be provided by the three peripheral cue cards and needs the presence of a supplementary cue. At last, aging studies often showed that oldness decreases cognitive skills in spatial navigation, leading to a general deficit in performances. But, in our work, we found that senescent rats were more efficient than adult ones in a special food collecting task. These experiments come within the scope of a general study which tests the theoretical model proposed by Jacobs and Schenk (2003), according to which the cognitive map's encoding (Tolman, 1948, O'Keefe and Nadel, 1978) should take place in the hippocampus by two complementary modules, first the DG-CA3 should encode directional and/or gradients references (the bearing map), and secondly the Subiculum-CAl should process locale elements (the sketch map).

The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Intra-Industry Trade, Multilateral Trade Integration, and Invasive Species Risk, December 2006

We analyze the linkage between protectionism and invasive species (IS) hazard in the context of two-way trade and multilateral trade integration, two major features of real-world agricultural trade. Multilateral integration includes the joint reduction of tariffs and trade costs among trading partners. Multilateral trade integration is more likely to increase damages from IS than predicted by unilateral trade opening under the classic Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) framework because domestic production (the base susceptible to damages) is likely to increase with expanding export markets. A country integrating its trade with a partner characterized by relatively higher tariff and trade costs is also more likely to experience increased IS damages via expanded domestic production for the same reason. We illustrate our analytical results with a stylized model of the world wheat market.

On the Definition of Public Goods. Assessing Richard A. Musgrave's contribution

This paper provides an explanation of the emergence of the standard textbook definition of public goods in the middle of the 20th century. It focuses on Richard Musgrave's contribution in defining public goods as non-rival and non-excludable - from 1939 to 1969. Although Samuelson's mathematical definition is generally used in models of public goods, the qualitative understanding of the specificity of pure public goods owes more to Musgrave's emphasis on the impossibility of exclusion. This paper also highlights the importance of the size of the group to which benefits of a public good accrue. This analysis allow for a reassessment of the Summary table of goods which first appeared in Musgrave and Musgrave (1973) textbook.

The global welfare impact of China: Trade integration and technological change

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model.We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a "balanced" one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an "unbalanced" one in whichChina's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to theworld productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004),the large majority of countries experience significantly larger welfare gains whenChina's productivity growth is biased towards its comparative disadvantage sectors.This finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade.

Structural and optical properties of high quality zinc-blende/wurtzite GaAs nanowire heterostructures

The structural and optical properties of three different kinds of GaAs nanowires with 100% zinc-blende structure and with an average of 30% and 70% wurtzite are presented. A variety of shorter and longer segments of zinc-blende or wurtzite crystal phases are observed by transmission electron microscopy in the nanowires. Sharp photoluminescence lines are observed with emission energies tuned from 1.515 eV down to 1.43 eV when the percentage of wurtzite is increased. The downward shift of the emission peaks can be understood by carrier confinement at the interfaces, in quantum wells and in random short period superlattices existent in these nanowires, assuming a staggered band offset between wurtzite and zinc-blende GaAs. The latter is confirmed also by time-resolved measurements. The extremely local nature of these optical transitions is evidenced also by cathodoluminescence measurements. Raman spectroscopy on single wires shows different strain conditions, depending on the wurtzite content which affects also the band alignments. Finally, the occurrence of the two crystallographic phases is discussed in thermodynamic terms.

Näkökulmia Norlannin kirkkohistoriaan

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Will the "fight" ever end? : a critical reading of the metaphors and discourses that construct HIV/AIDS in an African context

In this thesis, I critically examine the discourses that inform how we conceptualise HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa as they are produced in a sample of Canadian news articles, two nonfiction texts - Stephanie Nolen's 28 Stories of AIDS in Africa and Jonathan Morgan and the Bambanani Women's Group's Long Life ... Positive HIV Stories - as well as two literary texts - John Le Carre's popular fiction novel The Constant Gardener and an anthology of stories and poems from Southern Africa titled Nobody Ever Said AIDS, compiled and edited by Nobantu Rasebotsa, Meg Samuelson and Kylie Thomas. Paying particular attention to the role of metaphor in discursive formation, I have found that military metaphors, usually used in conjunction with biomedical discourses, continue to dominate what is said about HIV/AIDS. However, the use of military metaphors to conceptualise HIV/AIDS contributes to stigma and limits the effectiveness of responses to the pandemic. I argue that accessing alternative metaphors and discourses, such as biopsychosocial discourse, can lead to a more layered - and more beneficial - conceptualisation of HIV/AIDS, encouraging a more active response to the pandemic.