Volatility Spillover and Multivariate Volatility Impulse Response Analysis of GFC News Events

This paper applies two measures to assess spillovers across markets: the Diebold Yilmaz (2012) Spillover Index and the Hafner and Herwartz (2006) analysis of multivariate GARCH models using volatility impulse response analysis. We use two sets of data, daily realized volatility estimates taken from the Oxford Man RV library, running from the beginning of 2000 to October 2016, for the S&P500 and the FTSE, plus ten years of daily returns series for the New York Stock Exchange Index and the FTSE 100 index, from 3 January 2005 to 31 January 2015. Both data sets capture both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). The spillover index captures the transmission of volatility to and from markets, plus net spillovers. The key difference between the measures is that the spillover index captures an average of spillovers over a period, whilst volatility impulse responses (VIRF) have to be calibrated to conditional volatility estimated at a particular point in time. The VIRF provide information about the impact of independent shocks on volatility. In the latter analysis, we explore the impact of three different shocks, the onset of the GFC, which we date as 9 August 2007 (GFC1). It took a year for the financial crisis to come to a head, but it did so on 15 September 2008, (GFC2). The third shock is 9 May 2010. Our modelling includes leverage and asymmetric effects undertaken in the context of a multivariate GARCH model, which are then analysed using both BEKK and diagonal BEKK (DBEKK) models. A key result is that the impact of negative shocks is larger, in terms of the effects on variances and covariances, but shorter in duration, in this case a difference between three and six months.

Axis control optimization: autotuning techniques and frequency response analysis of industrial mechatronic systems

In the field of industrial automation, there is an increasing need to use optimal control systems that have low tracking errors and low power and energy consumption. The motors we are dealing with are mainly Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs), controlled by 3 different types of controllers: a position controller, a speed controller, and a current controller. In this thesis, therefore, we are going to act on the gains of the first two controllers by going to find, through the TwinCAT 3 software, what might be the best set of parameters. To do this, starting with the default parameters recommended by TwinCAT, two main methods were used and then compared: the method of Ziegler and Nichols, which is a tabular method, and advanced tuning, an auto-tuning software method of TwinCAT. Therefore, in order to analyse which set of parameters was the best,several experiments were performed for each case, using the Motion Control Function Blocks. Moreover, some machines, such as large robotic arms, have vibration problems. To analyse them in detail, it was necessary to use the Bode Plot tool, which, through Bode plots, highlights in which frequencies there are resonance and anti-resonance peaks. This tool also makes it easier to figure out which and where to apply filters to improve control.

Mixing performance evaluation of additive manufactured milli-scale reactors

The mixing performance of three passive milli-scale reactors with different geometries was investigated at different Reynolds numbers. The effects of design and operating characteristics such as mixing channel shape and volume flow rate were investigated. The main objective of this work was to demonstrate a process design method that uses on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) for modeling and Additive Manufacturing (AM) technology for manufacture. The reactors were designed and simulated using SolidWorks and Fluent 15.0 software, respectively. Manufacturing of the devices was performed with an EOS M-series AM system. Step response experiments with distilled Millipore water and sodium hydroxide solution provided time-dependent concentration profiles. Villermaux-Dushman reaction experiments were also conducted for additional verification of CFD results and for mixing efficiency evaluation of the different geometries. Time-dependent concentration data and reaction evaluation showed that the performance of the AM-manufactured reactors matched the CFD results reasonably well. The proposed design method allows the implementation of new and innovative solutions, especially in the process design phase, for industrial scale reactor technologies. In addition, rapid implementation is another advantage due to the virtual flow design and due to the fast manufacturing which uses the same geometric file formats.

Pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy is an independent predictive factor irrespective of simplified breast cancer intrinsic subtypes: a landmark and two-step approach analyses from the EORTC 10994/BIG 1-00 phase III trial.

BACKGROUND: Pathological complete response (pCR) following chemotherapy is strongly associated with both breast cancer subtype and long-term survival. Within a phase III neoadjuvant chemotherapy trial, we sought to determine whether the prognostic implications of pCR, TP53 status and treatment arm (taxane versus non-taxane) differed between intrinsic subtypes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were randomized to receive either six cycles of anthracycline-based chemotherapy or three cycles of docetaxel then three cycles of eprirubicin/docetaxel (T-ET). pCR was defined as no evidence of residual invasive cancer (or very few scattered tumour cells) in primary tumour and lymph nodes. We used a simplified intrinsic subtypes classification, as suggested by the 2011 St Gallen consensus. Interactions between pCR, TP53 status, treatment arm and intrinsic subtype on event-free survival (EFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) were studied using a landmark and a two-step approach multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Sufficient data for pCR analyses were available in 1212 (65%) of 1856 patients randomized. pCR occurred in 222 of 1212 (18%) patients: 37 of 496 (7.5%) luminal A, 22 of 147 (15%) luminal B/HER2 negative, 51 of 230 (22%) luminal B/HER2 positive, 43 of 118 (36%) HER2 positive/non-luminal, 69 of 221(31%) triple negative (TN). The prognostic effect of pCR on EFS did not differ between subtypes and was an independent predictor for better EFS [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.40, P < 0.001 in favour of pCR], DMFS (HR = 0.32, P < 0.001) and OS (HR = 0.32, P < 0.001). Chemotherapy arm was an independent predictor only for EFS (HR = 0.73, P = 0.004 in favour of T-ET). The interaction between TP53, intrinsic subtypes and survival outcomes only approached statistical significance for EFS (P = 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: pCR is an independent predictor of favourable clinical outcomes in all molecular subtypes in a two-step multivariate analysis. CLINICALTRIALSGOV: EORTC 10994/BIG 1-00 Trial registration number NCT00017095.

A two-step approach for the analysis of hybrids in comparative social policy analysis: a nuanced typology of childcare policies

Typologies have represented an important tool for the development of comparative social policy research and continue to be widely used in spite of growing criticism of their ability to capture the complexity of welfare states and their internal heterogeneity. In particular, debates have focused on the presence of hybrid cases and the existence of distinct cross-national pattern of variation across areas of social policy. There is growing awareness around these issues, but empirical research often still relies on methodologies aimed at classifying countries in a limited number of unambiguous types. This article proposes a two-step approach based on fuzzy-set-ideal-type analysis for the systematic analysis of hybrids at the level of both policies (step 1) and policy configurations or combinations of policies (step 2). This approach is demonstrated by using the case of childcare policies in European economies. In the first step, parental leave policies are analysed using three methods – direct, indirect, and combinatory – to identify and describe specific hybrid forms at the level of policy analysis. In the second step, the analysis focus on the relationship between parental leave and childcare services in order to develop an overall typology of childcare policies, which clearly shows that many countries display characteristics normally associated with different types (hybrids and. Therefore, this two-step approach enhances our ability to account and make sense of hybrid welfare forms produced from tensions and contradictions within and between policies.

Response surface methodology as an approach to determine optimal activities of lipase entrapped in sol-gel matrix using different vegetable oils

The conditions for maximization of the enzymatic activity of lipase entrapped in sol-gel matrix were determined for different vegetable oils using an experimental design. The effects of pH, temperature, and biocatalyst loading on lipase activity were verified using a central composite experimental design leading to a set of 13 assays and the surface response analysis. For canola oil and entrapped lipase, statistical analyses showed significant effects for pH and temperature and also the interactions between pH and temperature and temperature and biocatalyst loading. For the olive oil and entrapped lipase, it was verified that the pH was the only variable statistically significant. This study demonstrated that response surface analysis is a methodology appropriate for the maximization of the percentage of hydrolysis, as a function of pH, temperature, and lipase loading.

Single step process for particles surface modification or thin film composite production

Adsorbent materials and composites are quite useful for sensor development. Therefore, the aim of this work is the surface modification of particulates and/or composite formation. The material was produced by plasma polymerization of HMDS (hexamethyldisilazane) in a single step. SEM analysis shows good surface coverage of particulates with a plasma polymerized film formed by several clusters that might increase adsorption. Particles (starch. 5 5 mu m) recovered with HMDS films show good properties for retention of medium-size Organic molecules, such as dye. Thin films formed by a mixture of particles and plasma polymerized thin film HMDS species were obtained in a single step and can be used for retention of organic compounds, in liquid or gaseous phase. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Behavior of argon gas release from manganese oxide minerals as revealed by Ar-40/Ar-39 laser incremental heating analysis

Manganese oxides in association with paleo-weathering may provide significant insights into the multiple factors affecting the formation and evolution of weathering profiles, such as temperature, precipitation, and biodiversity. Laser probe step-heating analysis of supergene hollandite and cryptomelane samples collected from central Queensland, Australia, yield well-defined plateaus and consistent isochron ages, confirming the feasibility, dating very-fined supergene manganese oxides by Ar-40/(39) Ar technique. Two distinct structural sites hosting Ar isotopes can be identified in light of their degassing behaviors obtained by incremental heating analyses. The first site, releasing its gas fraction at the laser power 0.2-0.4 W, yields primarily Ar-40(atm), Ar-38(atm), and Ar-36(atm), (atmospheric Ar isotopes). The second sites yield predominantly Ar-40* (radiogenic Ar-40), Ar-39(K), and Ar-38(K) (nucleogenic components), at similar to0.5-1.0 W. There is no significant Ar gas released at the laser power higher than 1.0 W, indicating the breakdown of the tunnel sites hosting the radiogenic and nucleogenic components. The excellent match between the degassing behaviors of Ar-40*, Ar-39(K), and Ar-38(K) suggests that these isotopes occupy the same crystallographic sites and that Ar-39(K) loss from the tunnel site by recoil during neutron irradiation and/or bake-out procedure preceding isotopic analysis does not occur. Present investigation supports that neither the overwhelming atmospheric Ar-40 nor the very-fined nature of the supergene manganese oxides poses problems in extracting meaningful weathering geo-chronological information by analyzing supergene manganese oxides minerals.

Exposure assessment: the influence of environmental monitoring methodology

Exposure assessment is an important step of risk assessment process and has evolved more quickly than perhaps any aspect of the four-step risk paradigm (hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response analysis, and risk characterization). Nevertheless, some epidemiological studies have associated adverse health effects to a chemical exposure with an inadequate or absent exposure quantification. In addition to the metric used, the truly representation of exposure by measurements depends on: the strategy of sampling, random collection of measurements, and similarity between the measured and unmeasured exposure groups. Two environmental monitoring methodologies for formaldehyde occupational exposure were used to assess the influence of metric selection in exposure assessment and, consequently, in risk assessment process.

Activation of effector immune cells promotes tumor stochastic extinction: A homotopy analysis approach

In this article we provide homotopy solutions of a cancer nonlinear model describing the dynamics of tumor cells in interaction with healthy and effector immune cells. We apply a semi-analytic technique for solving strongly nonlinear systems – the Step Homotopy Analysis Method (SHAM). This algorithm, based on a modification of the standard homotopy analysis method (HAM), allows to obtain a one-parameter family of explicit series solutions. By using the homotopy solutions, we first investigate the dynamical effect of the activation of the effector immune cells in the deterministic dynamics, showing that an increased activation makes the system to enter into chaotic dynamics via a period-doubling bifurcation scenario. Then, by adding demographic stochasticity into the homotopy solutions, we show, as a difference from the deterministic dynamics, that an increased activation of the immune cells facilitates cancer clearance involving tumor cells extinction and healthy cells persistence. Our results highlight the importance of therapies activating the effector immune cells at early stages of cancer progression.

Time-domain optimization of amplifiers based on distributed genetic algorithms

Thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the subject of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Expression analysis of the AtPHO1 gene family in Arabidopsis thaliana and the involvement of AtPHO1 in the regulation of stomatal movements

Résumé Le transfert du phosphate des racines vers les feuilles s'effectue par la voie du xylème. Il a été précédemment démontré que la protéine AtPHO1 était indispensable au transfert du phosphate dans les vaisseaux du xylème des racines chez la plante modèle Arabidopsis thaliana. Le séquençage et l'annotation du génome d'Arabidopsis ont permis d'identifier dix séquences présentant un niveau de similarité significatif avec le gène AtPHO1 et constituant une nouvelle famille de gène appelé la famille de AtPHO1. Basée sur une étude moléculaire et génétique, cette thèse apporte des éléments de réponse pour déterminer le rôle des membres de ia famille de AtPHO1 chez Arabidopsis, inconnue à ce jour. Dans un premier temps, une analyse bioinformatique des séquences protéiques des membres de la famille de AtPHO1 a révélé la présence dans leur région N-terminale d'un domaine nommé SPX. Ce dernier est conservé parmi de nombreuses protéines impliquées dans l'homéostasie du phosphate chez la levure, renforçant ainsi l'hypothèse que les membres de la famille de AtPHO1 auraient comme AtPHO1 un rôle dans l'équilibre du phosphate dans la plante. En parallèle, la localisation tissulaire de l'expression des gènes AtPHO dans Arabidopsis a été identifiée par l'analyse de plantes transgéniques exprimant le gène rapporteur uidA sous le contrôle des promoteurs respectifs des gènes AtPHO. Un profil d'expression de chaque gène AtPHO au cours du développement de la plante a été obtenu. Une expression prédominante au niveau des tissus vasculaires des racines, des feuilles, des tiges et des fleurs a été observée, suggérant que les gènes AtPHO pourraient avoir des fonctions redondantes au niveau du transfert de phosphate dans le cylindre vasculaire de ces différents organes. Toutefois, plusieurs régions promotrices des gènes AtPHO contrôlent également un profil d'expression GUS non-vasculaire, indiquant un rôle putatif des gènes AtPHO dans l'acquisition ou le recyclage de phosphate dans la plante. Dans un deuxième temps, l'analyse de l'expression des gènes AtPHO durant une carence en phosphate a établi que seule l'expression des gènes AtPHO1, AtPHO1; H1 et AtPHO1; H10 est régulée par cette carence. Une étude approfondie de leur expression en réponse à des traitements affectant l'homéostasie du phosphate dans la plante a ensuite démontré leur régulation par différentes voies de signalisation. Ensuite, une analyse détaillée de la régulation de l'expression du gène AtPHO1; H1O dans des feuilles d'Arabidopsis blessées ou déshydratées a révélé que ce gène constitue le premìer gène marqueur d'une nouvelle voie de signalisation induite par l'OPDA, pas par le JA et dépendante de la protéine COI1. Ces résultats démontrent pour la première fois que l'OPDA et le JA peuvent activer différents gènes via des voies de signalisation dépendantes de COI1. Enfin, cette thèse révèle l'identification d'un nouveau rôle de la protéine AtPHO1 dans la régulation de l'action de l'ABA au cours des processus de fermeture stomatique et de germination des graines chez Arabidopsis. Bien que les fonctions exactes des protéines AtPHO restent à être déterminées, ce travail de thèse suggère leur implication dans la propagation de différents signaux dans la plante via la modulation du potentiel membranaire et/ou l'affectation de la composition en ions des cellules comme le font de nombreux transporteurs ou régulateur du transport d'ions. Summary Phosphate is transferred from the roots to the shoot via the xylem. The requirement for AtPHO1 protein to transfer phosphate to the xylem vessels of the root has been previously demonstrated in Arabidopsis thaliana. The sequencing and the annotation of the Arabidopsis genome had allowed the identification of ten sequences that show a significant level of similarity with the AtPHO1 gene. These 10 genes, of unknown functions, constitute a new gene family called the AtPHO1 gene family. Based on a molecular and genetics study, this thesis reveals some information needed to understand the role of the AtPHO1 family members in the plant Arabidopsis. First, a bioinformatics study revealed that the AtPHO sequences contained, in the N-terminal hydrophilic region, a motif called SPX and conserved among multiple proteins involved in phosphate homeostasis in yeast. This finding reinforces the hypothesis that all AtPHO1 family members have, as AtPHO1, a role in phosphate homeostasis. In parallel, we identified the pattern of expression of AtPHO genes in Arabidopsis via analysis of transgenic plants expressing the uidA reporter gene under the control of respective AtPHO promoter regions. The results exhibit a predominant expression of AtPHO genes in vascular tissues of all organs of the plant, implying that these AtPHO genes could have redundant functions in the transfer of phosphate to the vascular cylinder of various organs. The GUS expression pattern for several AtPHO promoter regions was also detected in non-vascular tissue indicating a broad role of AtPHO genes in the acquisition or in the recycling of phosphate in the plant. In a second step, the analysis of the expression of AtPHO genes during phosphate starvation established that only the expression of the AtPHO1, AtPHO1; H1 and AtPHO1; H10 genes were regulated by Pi starvation. Interestingly, different signalling pathways appeared to regulate these three genes during various treatments affecting Pi homeostasis in the plant. The third chapter presents a detailed analysis of the signalling pathways regulating the expression of the AtPHO1; H10 gene in Arabidopsis leaves during wound and dehydrated stresses. Surprisingly, the expression of AtPHO1; H10 was found to be regulated by OPDA (the precursor of JA) but not by JA itself and via the COI1 protein (the central regulator of the JA signalling pathway). These results demonstrated for the first time that OPDA and JA could activate distinct genes via COI1-dependent pathways. Finally, this thesis presents the identification of a novel role of the AtPHO1 protein in the regulation of ABA action in Arabidopsis guard cells and during seed germination. Although the exact role and function of AtPHO1 still need to be determined, these last findings suggest that AtPHO1 and by extension other AtPHO proteins could mediate the propagation of various signals in the plant by modulating the membrane potential and/or by affecting cellular ion composition, as it is the case for many ion transporters or regulators of ion transport.

Spontaneous Speech and Emotional Response modeling based on One-class classifier oriented to Alzheimer Disease diagnosis

The purpose of our project is to contribute to earlier diagnosis of AD and better estimates of its severity by using automatic analysis performed through new biomarkers extracted from non-invasive intelligent methods. The methods selected in this case are speech biomarkers oriented to Sponta-neous Speech and Emotional Response Analysis. Thus the main goal of the present work is feature search in Spontaneous Speech oriented to pre-clinical evaluation for the definition of test for AD diagnosis by One-class classifier. One-class classifi-cation problem differs from multi-class classifier in one essen-tial aspect. In one-class classification it is assumed that only information of one of the classes, the target class, is available. In this work we explore the problem of imbalanced datasets that is particularly crucial in applications where the goal is to maximize recognition of the minority class as in medical diag-nosis. The use of information about outlier and Fractal Dimen-sion features improves the system performance.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

Multidimensional item response theory models with general and specific latent traits for ordinal data

The aim of the thesis is to propose a Bayesian estimation through Markov chain Monte Carlo of multidimensional item response theory models for graded responses with complex structures and correlated traits. In particular, this work focuses on the multiunidimensional and the additive underlying latent structures, considering that the first one is widely used and represents a classical approach in multidimensional item response analysis, while the second one is able to reflect the complexity of real interactions between items and respondents. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the parameter recovery for the proposed models under different conditions (sample size, test and subtest length, number of response categories, and correlation structure). The results show that the parameter recovery is particularly sensitive to the sample size, due to the model complexity and the high number of parameters to be estimated. For a sufficiently large sample size the parameters of the multiunidimensional and additive graded response models are well reproduced. The results are also affected by the trade-off between the number of items constituting the test and the number of item categories. An application of the proposed models on response data collected to investigate Romagna and San Marino residents' perceptions and attitudes towards the tourism industry is also presented.