Interactions of age-dependent mortality and selectivity functions in age-based stock assessment models

The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.

An Ecological Perspective on Inshore Fisheries in the Main Hawaiian Islands

A description of fisheries within a depth of 100 fathoms is provided for the eight southeastern-most islands of the Hawaiian Archipelago, known as the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). These are the inhabited islands of the State of Hawaii and are those most subject to inshore fishing pressure, because of their accessibility. Between 1980 and 1990, an average of 1,300 short tons of fishes and invertebrates were reported annually within 100 fm by commercial fishermen. Total landings may be significantly greater, since fishing is a popular pastime of residents and noncommercial landings are not reported. Although limited data are available on noncommercial fisheries, the majority of this review is based on reported commercial landings. The principal ecological factors influencing fisheries in the MHI include coastal currents, the breadth and steepness of the coastal platform, and differences in windward and leeward climate. Expansive coastal development, increased erosion, and sedimentation are among negative human impacts on inshore reef ecosystems on most islands. Commercial fisheries for large pelagics (tunas and billfishes) are important in inshore areas around Ni'ihau, Ka'ula Rock, Kauai, and the Island of Hawaii (the Big Island), as are bottom "handline" fisheries for snappers and groupers around Kauai and Molokai. However, many more inshore fishermen target reef and estuarine species. Two pelagic carangids, "akule," Selar crumenopthalmus, and "opelu," Decapterus macarellus, support the largest inshore fisheries in the MHI. During 1980-90, reported commercial landings within three miles of shore averaged 203 and 125 t for akule and opelu, respectively. Akule landings are distributed fairly evenly throughout the MHI, while more than 72% of the state's inshore opelu landings take place on the Big Island. Besides akule and opelu, other important commercial fisheries on all the MHI include those for surgeon, soldier, parrot, and goatfishes; snappers; octopus, and various trevallies. Trends in reported landings, trips, and catch per unit effort over the last decade are outlined for these fisheries. In heavily populated areas, fishing pressure appears to exceed the capacity of inshore resources to renew themselves. Management measures are beginning to focus on methods of limiting inshore fishing effort, while trying to maintain residents' access to fishing.

A contribuição da geomática na geografia da saúde sob uma abordagem da Teoria Geral de Sistemas.

O conjunto de técnicas de Geomática tem sido um poderoso aliado no apoio à tomada de decisões e manipulação de dados espaciais. Nas últimas décadas tornou-se quase indispensável na gestão de recursos humanos e recursos naturais. Na área da Saúde, a Geomática tem viabilizado estudos sobre: análise da distribuição de pacientes; variações na ocorrência de epidemias; monitoramento de vetores; avaliação em tempo real de situações de emergência ou catastróficas, entre outros. A associação da Medicina com a Geografia é antiga. A associação entre a saúde e a espacialização das doenças deve considerar a estruturação física do espaço geográfico a partir da caracterização de cada parte componente do sistema como preconiza a perspectiva sistêmica na Teoria Geral de Sistema, pois a população é parte integrante do espaço geográfico no qual ocorrem determinados agravos à saúde. Nestes pontos recai a relevância da presente pesquisa. O estudo foi desenvolvido na área da Bacia Hidrográfica de Jacarepaguá no município do Rio de Janeiro. Com aproximadamente 295 km2 é composta por 19 bairros e tem uma população aproximada de 682000 habitantes. O estudo pretendeu estruturar uma metodologia para inserção das técnicas de Geomática na prática de análises de dados de saúde, apoiada na Teoria Geral de Sistemas, visando contribuir no processo de vigilância ambiental em saúde permitindo realizar um prognóstico de situações de risco de determinada população. A base cartográfica que apoiou o estudo foi construída através de cartas topográficas da DSG na escala 1:50000. Das cartas foram retiradas informações de planimetria relevantes ao estudo e as informações de altimetria que foram utilizadas na elaboração do modelo digital de terreno (MDT). Com o MDT foi gerado o mapa de declividade por grau que permitiu criar divisões em 5 classes para posterior geração de mapas temáticos com os dados de saúde. Os dados de saúde foram retirados do Sistema de Informações de Notificação de Agravos (SINAN) disponibilizado pelo Ministério da Saúde. A doença analisada foi a leptospirose. Os casos foram localizados pontualmente a partir dos endereços de residência. A hipótese aventada neste estudo era a existência de um alto grau de correlação entre as partes componentes representadas pela estruturação física do espaço e a ocorrência de leptospirose. Com os resultados comprovou-se a hipótese nula, pois somente ocorrem doenças em áreas associadas ao Fundo Chato da Baixada de Jacarepaguá e nos Declives Suaves dos Morros Isolados, também localizados no Subsistema Baixada. Isto demonstra que em termos desta doença existe uma ausência de população nesta componente espacial em áreas de maiores declividades.

The radio counter-jet of the QSO 3C 48

We present multi- frequency radio observational results of the quasar 3C 48. The observations were carried out with the Very Large Array ( VLA) at five frequencies, 0.33, 1.5, 4.8, 8.4, and 22.5 GHz, and with the Multi- Element Radio Linked Interferometer Network ( MERLIN) at the two frequencies of 1.6 and 5 GHz. The source shows a one- sided jet to the north within 1", which then extends to the northeast and becomes diffuse. Two bright components ( N2 and N3), containing most of the flux density, are present in the northern jet. The spectral index of the two components is alpha(N2) similar to -0.99 +/- 0.12 and alpha(N3) similar to - 0.84 +/- 0.23 ( S proportional to nu(alpha)). Our images show the presence of an extended structure surrounding component N2, suggestive of strong interaction between the jet and the interstellar medium ( ISM) of the host galaxy. A steep- spectrum component, labelled S, located 0.25 " southwest to the flat- spectrum component which could be the core of 3C 48, is detected at a significance of > 15 sigma. Both the location and the steepness of the spectrum of component S suggest the presence of a counter- jet in 3C 48.

Mechanism Responsible for the Complete Suppression of Karman Vortex in Flows Past a Wavy Square-Section Cylinder

The Karman vortex shedding is totally suppressed in flows past a wavy square-section cylinder at a Reynolds number of 100 and the wave steepness of 0.025. Such a phenomenon is illuminated by the numerical simulations. In the present study, the mechanism responsible for it is mainly attributed to the vertical vorticity. The geometric disturbance on the rear surface leads to the appearance of spanwise flow near the base. The specific vertical vorticity is generated on the rear surface and convecting into the near wake. The wake flow is recirculated with the appearance of the pair of recirculating cells. The interaction between the upper and lower shear layers is weakened by such cells, so that the vortex rolls could not be formed and the near wake flow becomes stable.

Potentiometric glucose sensors

The determination of glucose is possible with the enzymatic reaction of glucose oxidase and potentiometric detection. The signal is proportional to the concentration up to 50 mg/dl. This value is fixed by the concentration of oxygen in the sample. By adding catalase, concentrations up to 2000 mg/dl are detectable. The steepness of the calibration curve is not affected by oxygen concentrations greater than 4 mg/l. In contrast to amperometric sensors, an influence of deposits on the electrodes surface on the signal cannot be found with potentiometric sensors

人工降雨条件下谷子地留茬的水土保持效应研究

通过人工模拟降雨试验研究了谷子地不同留茬高度及不同坡度的水土保持效应。结果表明,15cm留茬高度相对于未留茬处理径流量减少了18.6%,留茬5cm与10cm无显著减少径流作用;留茬能够减小产沙量14.36%～19.47%;5,10,及15cm留茬高度对产流时间没有显著影响,坡度的变化对产流时间无显著影响;坡度为10°时,径流对土壤的侵蚀最明显;留茬高度为15cm的处理水土保持效应最佳。

黄土高原林草水土保持有效盖度分析

根据黄土高原绥德、延安、安塞和离石等地林、草地径流小区降雨侵蚀资料，对不同降雨和坡度下林、草地水土保持有效盖度进行了分析，建立了林地、草地水土保持临界有效益度与降雨及坡度的关系式。在土壤和植被类型相对稳定的条件下，林、草地的有效益度随着降雨和坡度的增大而增大，当临界有效益度达到一定程度时，降雨和坡度的影响减弱；在其它条件相同时，同一水土保持作用所要求的有效盖度草地比林地大。并结合降雨频率分析，得出了林、草措施抵抗不同年遇暴雨时的临界有效盖度。

Distribution of the nonlinear random ocean wave period

Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution, and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases. The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37A degrees 27.6' N, 122A degrees 15.1' E), China, are used to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different spectral widths (nu=0.3-0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988) distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory.

Improvement of different source function expressions in SWAN model for the Bohai Sea

The simulating wave nearshore (SWAN) wave model has been widely used in coastal areas, lakes and estuaries. However, we found a poor agreement between modeling results and measurements in analyzing the chosen four typical cases when we used the default parameters of the source function formulas of the SWAN to make wave simulation for the Bohai Sea. Also, it was found that at the same wind process the simulated results of two wind generation expressions (Komen, Janssen) demonstrated a large difference. Further study showed that the proportionality coefficient alpha in linear growth term of wave growth source function plays an unperceived role in the process of wave development. Based on experiments and analysis, we thought that the coefficient alpha should change rather than be a constant. Therefore, the coefficient alpha changing with the variation of friction velocity U (*) was introduced into the linear growth term of wave growth source function. Four weather processes were adopted to validate the improvement in the linear growth term. The results from the improved coefficient alpha agree much better with the measurements than those from the default constant coefficient alpha. Furthermore, the large differences of results between Komen wind generation expression and Janssen wind generation expression were eliminated. We also experimented with the four weather processes to test the new white-capping mechanisms based on the cumulative steepness method. It was found that the parameters of the new white-capping mechanisms are not suitable for the Bohai Sea, but Alkyon's white-capping mechanisms can be applicable to the Bohai Sea after amendments, demonstrating that this improvement of parameter alpha can improve the simulated results of the Bohai Sea.

NONLINEAR GRAVITY-WAVES IN DEEP-WATER

In consideration of the problem on the boundary condition of nonlinear free water wave, coordinate transform is used to handle the free boundary. Supposing the solution form be the traveling wave, the ordinary differential equations of the one-order autonomous system with two variables are caused, then expanding the nonlinear terms at the equilibrium point with the Taylor expansion, we obtained the solution to traveling wave. The linear approximate equation near the equilibrium point is the small amplitude wave. A new nonlinear periodic traveling wave and nonlinear dispersion relation are shown when expanding to the second-order terms. A conclusion that the expansion of dispersion relation does not contain any odd-power terms of wave steepness and because of the nonlinear effort an oscillate structure is produced in the vertical direction is drawn.

Statistical distribution of nonlinear random wave height

A statistical model of random wave is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. A new nonlinear probability distribution function of wave height is presented. The results indicate that wave steepness not only could be a parameter of the distribution function of wave height but also could reflect the degree of wave height distribution deviation from the Rayleigh distribution. The new wave height distribution overcomes the problem of Rayleigh distribution that the prediction of big wave is overestimated and the general wave is underestimated. The prediction of small probability wave height value of new distribution is also smaller than that of Rayleigh distribution. Wave height data taken from East China Normal University are used to verify the new distribution. The results indicate that the new distribution fits the measurements much better than the Rayleigh distribution.

Comparisons of zooplankton time series

Evidence for climate-correlated low frequency variability of various components of marine ecosystems has accumulated rapidly over the past 2 decades. There has also been a growing recognition that society needs to learn how the fluctuations of these various components are linked, and to predict the likely amplitude and steepness of future changes. Demographic characteristics of marine zooplankton make them especially suitable for examining variability of marine ecosystems at interannual to decadal time scales. Their life cycle duration is short enough that there is little carryover of population membership from year to year, but long enough that variability can be tracked with monthly-to-seasonal sampling. Because zooplankton are rarely fished, comparative analysis of changes in their abundance can greatly enhance our ability to evaluate the importance of and interaction between physical environment, food web, and fishery harvest as causal mechanisms driving ecosystem level changes. A number of valuable within-region analyses of zooplankton time series have been published in the past decade, covering a variety of modes of variability including changes in total biomass, changes in size structure and species composition, changes in spatial distribution, and changes in seasonal timing. But because most zooplankton time series are relatively short compared to the time scales of interest, the statistical power of local analyses is often low, and between-region and between-variable comparisons are also needed. In this paper, we review the results of recent within- and between-region analyses, and suggest some priorities for future work.

Time signatures of impulsively generated coronal fast wave trains

Impulsively generated short-period fast magneto-acoustic wave trains, guided by solar and stellar coronal loops, are numerically modelled. In the developed stage of the evolution, the wave trains have a characteristic quasi-periodic signature. The quasi-periodicity results from the geometrical dispersion of the guided fast modes, determined by the transverse profile of the loop. A typical feature of the signature is a tadpole wavelet Spectrum: a narrow-spectrum tail precedes a broad-band head. The instantaneous period of the oscillations in the wave train decreases gradually with time. The period and the spectral amplitude evolution are shown to be determined by the steepness of the transverse density profile and the density contrast ratio in the loop. The propagating wave trains recently discovered with the Solar Eclipse Coronal Imaging System (SECIS) instrument are noted to have similar wavelet spectral features, which strengthens the interpretation of SECIS results as guided fast wave trains.

Equilibrium polymerization of cyclic carbonate oligomers. II. Role of multiple active sites

Ring opening polymerization of bisphenol A polycarbonate is studied by Monte Carlo simulations of a model comprising a fixed number of Lennard-Jones particles and harmonic bonds [J. Chem. Phys. 115, 3895 (2001)]. Bond interchanges produced by a low concentration (0.10%less than or equal toc(a)less than or equal to0.36%) of chemically active particles lead to equilibrium polymerization. There is a continuous transition in both 2D and 3D from unpolymerized cyclic oligomers at low density to a system of linear chains at high density, and the polymeric phase is much more stable in three dimensions than in two. The steepness of the polymerization transition increases rapidly as c(a) decreases, suggesting that it is discontinuous in the limit c(a)-->0. The transition is entropy driven, since the average potential energy increases systematically upon polymerization, and there is a steady decline in the degree of polymerization as the temperature is lowered. The mass distribution functions for open chains and for rings are unimodal, with exponentially decaying tails that can be fitted by Zimm-Schulz functions and simpler exponential forms. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.