Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Country asymmetries, endogenous product choice and the speed of trade liberalization

In a world with two countries which differ in size, we study theimpact of (the speed of) trade liberalization on firms' profitsand total welfare of the countries involved. Firms correctlyanticipate the pace of trade liberalization and take it intoaccount when deciding on their product choices, which areendogenously determined at the beginning of the game. Competitionin the marketplace then occurs either on quantities or on prices.As long as the autarkic phase continues, local firms are nationalmonopolists. When trade liberalization occurs, firms compete in aninternational duopoly. We analyze trade effects by using twodifferent models of product differentiation. Across all thespecifications adopted (and independently of the price v. quantitycompetition hypothesis), total welfare always unambiguously riseswith the speed of trade liberalization: Possible losses by firmsare always outweighed by consumers' gains, which come under theform of lower prices, enlarged variety of higher average qualitiesavailable. The effect on profits depends on the type of industryanalyzed. Two results in particular seem to be worth of mention.With vertical product differentiation and fixed costs of qualityimprovements, the expected size of the market faced by the firmsdetermines the incentive to invest in quality. The longer the periodof autarky, the lower the possibility that the firm from the smallcountry would be producing the high quality and be the leader in theinternational market when it opens. On the contrary, when trade opensimmediately, national markets do not play any role and firms fromdifferent countries have the same opportunity to become the leader.Hence, immediate trade liberalization might be in the interest ofproducers in the small country. In general, the lower the size of thesmall country, the more likely its firm will gain from tradeliberalization. Losses from the small country firm can arise when itis relegated to low quality good production and the domestic marketsize is not very small. With horizontal product differentiation (thehomogeneous good case being a limit case of it when costs ofdifferentiation tend to infinity), investments in differentiationbenefit both firms in equal manner. Firms from the small country do notrun the risk of being relegated to a lower competitive position undertrade. As a result, they would never lose from it. Instead, firms fromthe large country may still incur losses from the opening of trade whenthe market expansion effect is low (i.e. when the country is very largerelative to the other).

Normative Topographic ERP Analyses of Speed of Speech Processing and Grammar Before and After Grammatical Treatment.

Typically developing (TD) preschoolers and age-matched preschoolers with specific language impairment (SLI) received event-related potentials (ERPs) to four monosyllabic speech sounds prior to treatment and, in the SLI group, after 6 months of grammatical treatment. Before treatment, the TD group processed speech sounds faster than the SLI group. The SLI group increased the speed of their speech processing after treatment. Posttreatment speed of speech processing predicted later impairment in comprehending phrase elaboration in the SLI group. During the treatment phase, change in speed of speech processing predicted growth rate of grammar in the SLI group.

Front Speed of Language Replacement

We use two coupled equations to analyze the space-time dynamics of two interacting languages. Firstly, we introduce a cohabitation model, which is more appropriate for human populations than classical (non-cohabitation) models. Secondly, using numerical simulations we nd the front speed of a new language spreading into a region where another language was previously used. Thirdly, for a special case we derive an analytical formula that makes it possible to check the validity of our numerical simulations. Finally, as an example, we nd that the observed front speed for the spread of the English language into Wales in the period 1961-1981 is consistent with the model predictions. We also nd that the e¤ects of linguistic parameters are much more important than those of parameters related to population dispersal and reproduction. If the initial population densities of both languages are similar, they have no e¤ect on the front speed. We outline the potential of the new model to analyze relationships between language replacement and genetic replacement

Approximate solution to the speed of spreading viruses

Recently, it has been shown that the speed of virus infections can be explained by time-delayed reactiondiffusion [J. Fort and V. Me´ndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 178101 (2002)], but no analytical solutions were found. Here we derive formulas for the front speed, valid in appropriate limits. We also integrate numerically the evolution equations of the system. There is good agreement with both numerical and experimental speeds

Speed of travelling fronts: Two-dimensional and ballistic dispersal probability distributions

The speed of traveling fronts for a two-dimensional model of a delayed reactiondispersal process is derived analytically and from simulations of molecular dynamics. We show that the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) versions of a given kernel do not yield always the same speed. It is also shown that the speeds of time-delayed fronts may be higher than those predicted by the corresponding non-delayed models. This result is shown for systems with peaked dispersal kernels which lead to ballistic transport

Predicting performance on fluid intelligence from speed of processing, working memory, and controlled attention

Fluid inteliigence has been defined as an innate ability to reason which is measured commonly by the Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM). Individual differences in fluid intelligence are currently explained by the Cascade model (Fry & Hale, 1996) and the Controlled Attention hypothesis (Engle, Kane, & Tuholski, 1999; Kane & Engle, 2002). The first theory is based on a complex relation among age, speed, and working memory which is described as a Cascade. The alternative to this theory, the Controlled Attention hypothesis, is based on the proposition that it is the executive attention component of working memory that explains performance on fluid intelligence tests. The first goal of this study was to examine whether the Cascade model is consistent within the visuo-spatial and verbal-numerical modalities. The second goal was to examine whether the executive attention component ofworking memory accounts for the relation between working memory and fluid intelligence. Two hundred and six undergraduate students between the ages of 18 and 28 completed a battery of cognitive tests selected to measure processing speed, working memory, and controlled attention which were selected from two cognitive modalities, verbalnumerical and visuo-spatial. These were used to predict performance on two standard measures of fluid intelligence: the Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM) and the Shipley Institute of Living Scales (SILS) subtests. Multiple regression and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were used to test the Cascade model and to determine the independent and joint effects of controlled attention and working memory on general fluid intelligence. Among the processing speed measures only spatial scan was related to the RPM. No other significant relations were observed between processing speed and fluid intelligence. As 1 a construct, working memory was related to the fluid intelligence tests. Consistent with the predictions for the RPM there was support for the Cascade model within the visuo-spatial modality but not within the verbal-numerical modality. There was no support for the Cascade model with respect to the SILS tests. SEM revealed that there was a direct path between controlled attention and RPM and between working memory and RPM. However, a significant path between set switching and RPM explained the relation between controlled attention and RPM. The prediction that controlled attention mediated the relation between working memory and RPM was therefore not supported. The findings support the view that the Cascade model may not adequately explain individual differences in fluid intelligence and this may be due to the differential relations observed between working memory and fluid intelligence across different modalities. The findings also show that working memory is not a domain-general construct and as a result its relation with fluid intelligence may be dependent on the nature of the working memory modality.

Bone speed of sound, biochemical markers of bone turnover and IGF-1 in competetive synchronized swimmers

The purpose of this study was to compare bone speed of sound (SOS) measured by quantitative ultrasound, circulating levels of IGF- 1 and biochemical markers of bone turnover in pre- (Pr) and post-menarcheal (Po) synchronized swimmers (SS) and controls (NS). Seventy participants were recruited: 8 PrSS, 22 PoSS, 20 PrNS, and 20 PoNS. Anthropometric measures of height, weight, skeletal maturity and percent body fat were taken, and dietary intake evaluated using 24-hour recall. Bone SOS was measured at the distal radius and mid-tibia and blood samples analyzed for IGF-1, osteocalcin, NTx, and 25-OH vitamin D. Results demonstrated maturational effects on bone SOS, IGF-1 and bone turnover (p<0.05), with no differences observed between SS and NS. Main effects were observed for a reduced caloric intake in SS compared to NS (p<0.05). Therefore, SS does not offer additive affects on bone strength but imparts no adverse affects to skeletal health in these athletes.

Bone speed of sound in overweight and normal-weight girls and adolescents

Over the last two decades, the prevalence of obesity in the general population has been steadily increasing. Obesity is a major issue in scientific research because it is associated with many health problems, one of which is bone quality. In adult females, adiposity is associated with increased bone mineral density, suggesting that there is a protective effect of fat on bone. However, the association between adiposity and bone strength during childhood is not clear. Thus, the purpose of this study was to compare bone strength, as reflected by speed of sound (SOS), of overweight and obese girls and adolescents with normal-weight age-matched controls. Data from 75 females included normal-weight girls (G-NW; body fat:::; 25%; n = 21), overweight and obese girls (GOW; body fat ~ 28%; n = 19), normal-weight adolescents (A-NW, body fat:::; 25%; n = 13) and overweight and obese adolescents (A-OW; body fat ~ 28%; n = 22). Nutrition was assessed with a 24-hour recall questionnaire and habitual physical activity was measured for one week using accelerometry. Using quantitative ultrasound (QUS; Sunlight Omnisense™), bone SOS was measured at the distal radius and mid-tibia. No differences were found between groups in daily total energy, calcium or vitamin D intake. However, all groups were below the recommended daily calcium intake of 1300 mg (Osteoporosis Canada, 2008). Adolescents were significantly less active than girls (14.7 ± 0.6 vs. 6.3 ± 0.6% active for G and A, respectively). OW accumulated significantly less minutes of moderate-to-very vigorous physical activity per day (MVPA) than NW in both age groups (114 ± 6 vs. 57 ± 5 min/day for NW and OW, i respectively). Girls had significantly lower radial SOS (3794 ± 87 vs. 3964 ± 64 mls for G-NW and A-NW, respectively), and tibial SOS (3678 ± 86 vs. 3878 ± 52 mls for G-NW and A-NW, respectively) than adolescents. Radial SOS was similar in the two adiposity groups within each age group. However, tibial SOS was lower in the two overweight groups (3601 ± 75 mls vs. 3739 ± 134 mls for G-OW and A-OW, respectively) compared with the age-matched normal-weight controls. Body fat percentage negatively correlated with tibial SOS in the study sample as a whole (r = -0.30). However, when split into groups, percent bo~y fat correlated with tibial SOS only in the A-OW group (r = -0.53). MVPA correlated with tibial SOS (r = 0.40), once age was partialed out. In conclusion, in contrast withthe higher bone strength characteristic of obese adult women, overweight and obese girls and adolescents are characterized by low tibial bone strength, as assessed with QUS. The differences between adiposity groups in tibial SOS may be at least partially due to the reduced weight-bearing physical activity levels in the overweight girls and adolescents. However, other factors, such as hormonal influences associated with high body fat may also playa role in reducing bone strength in overweight girls. Further research is required to reveal the mechanisms causing low bone strength in overweight and obese children and adolescents.

Towards a better understanding of the relationship between speed of internationalization and performance outcomes among young international ventures

This thesis offers an explanation for the inconsistent relationship between speed of internationalization and performance outcomes in the context of young international ventures. We argue that the variables of scope of internationalization, entrepreneurial orientation and degree of internationalization play a moderating role in the relationship between speed of internationalization and performance outcomes of international new ventures (INVs). Using primary survey data from INVs in China, we found empirical support for significant moderating impact of scope of internationalization, entrepreneurial orientation variables and no support for the moderating impact of degree of internationalization variable. The results suggest that business managers of INVs shall consider the applied moderating variables as an effective tool kit to enhance firm performance in foreign markets and to mitigate any potential risks of early internationalization.

The role of Investment Management Systems in regulatory compliance: a Post-Financial Crisis study of displacement mechanisms

The financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the resultant pressures exerted on policymakers to prevent future crises have precipitated coordinated regulatory responses globally. A key focus of the new wave of regulation is to ensure the removal of practices now deemed problematic with new controls for conducting transactions and maintaining holdings. There is increasing pressure on organizations to retire manual processes and adopt core systems, such as Investment Management Systems (IMS). These systems facilitate trading and ensure transactions are compliant by transcribing regulatory requirements into automated rules and applying them to trades. The motivation of this study is to explore the extent to which such systems may enable the alteration of previously embedded practices. We researched implementations of an IMS at eight global financial organizations and found that overall the IMS encourages responsible trading through surveillance, monitoring and the automation of regulatory rules and that such systems are likely to become further embedded within financial organizations. We found evidence that some older practices persisted. Our study suggests that the institutionalization of technology-induced compliant behaviour is still uncertain.