Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

How does global change affect the strength of trophic interactions?

Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However 'change' is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties as precipitation, nutrient cycling and temperature, all of which are correlated with productivity. Here we argue that predicted scenarios of global change will result in increased plant productivity. We model three scenarios of change using simple Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which explore how a global change in productivity might affect the strength of local species interactions and detail the consequences for community and ecosystem level stability. Our results indicate that (i) at local scales the average population size of consumers may decline because of poor quality food resources, (ii) that the strength of species interactions at equilibrium may become weaker because of reduced population size, and (iii) that species populations may become more variable and may take longer to recover from environmental or anthropogenic disturbances. At local scales interaction strengths encompass such properties as feeding rates and assimilation efficiencies, and encapsulate functionatty important information with regard to ecosystem processes. Interaction strengths represent the pathways and transfer of energy through an ecosystem. We examine how such local patterns might be affected given various scenarios of 'global change' and discuss the consequences for community stability and ecosystem functioning. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Influence of elevated CO2 on interspecific interactions at higher trophic levels

We report the results of a study investigating the influence of elevated CO2 on species interactions across three trophic levels: a plant (Brassica oleracea), two aphid herbivores (the generalist Myzus persicae and the specialist Brevicoryne brassicae), and two natural enemies (the coccinellid Hippodamia convergens (ladybird) and the parasitoid wasp Diaeretiella rapae). Brassica oleracea plants reared under elevated CO2 conditions (650 ppmv vs. 350 ppmv) were larger and had decreased water and nitrogen content. Brevicoryne brassicae reared on plants grown in elevated CO2 were larger and accumulated more fat, while there was no change in M. persicae traits. Fecundity of individual aphids appeared to be increased when reared on plants grown in elevated CO2. However, these differences were generally lost when aphids were reared in colonies, suggesting that such changes in plant quality will have subtile effects on aphid intraspecific interactions. Nevertheless, CO2 treatment did influence aphid distribution on plants, with significantly fewer M. persicae found on the shoots, and B. brassicae was only found on senescing leaves, when colonies were reared on plants grown in elevated CO2. We reared B. brassicae and M. persicae in competition on plants grown at both the CO2 concentration treatments. We found a significantly lower ratio of M. persicae: B. brassicae on plants grown under elevated CO2 conditions, strongly suggesting that increasing CO2 concentrations can alter the outcome of competition among insect herbivores. This was also reflected in the distribution of the aphids on the plants. While the CO2 treatment did not influence where B. brassicae were found, fewer M. persicae were present on senescing leaves under elevated CO2 conditions. Changes in plant quality resulting from the CO2 treatments did not appear to alter aphid quality as prey species, as the number consumed by the ladybird H. convergens, and the number parasitised by the parasitoid wasp D. rapae, did not change. To our knowledge, this study provides the first empirical evidence that changes in host plant quality mediated by increasing levels of CO2 can alter the outcome of interspecific competition among insect herbivores.

Can a native rodent species limit the invasive potential of a non-native rodent species in tropical agroforest habitats?

BACKGROUND Little is known about native and non-native rodent species interactions in complex tropical agro-ecosystems. We hypothesised that the native non-pest rodent Rattus everetti may be competitively dominant over the invasive pest rodent Rattus tanezumi within agroforests. We tested this experimentally by using pulse removal for three consecutive months to reduce populations of R. everetti in agroforest habitat and assessed over 6-months the response of R. tanezumi and other rodent species. RESULTS Following removal, R. everetti individuals rapidly immigrated into removal sites. At the end of the study period, R. tanezumi were larger and there was a significant shift in their microhabitat use with respect to the use of ground vegetation cover following the perturbation of R. everetti. Irrespective of treatment, R. tanezumi selected microhabitat with less tree canopy cover, indicative of severely disturbed habitat, whereas, R. everetti selected microhabitat with a dense canopy. CONCLUSION Our results suggest that sustained habitat disturbance in agroforests favours R. tanezumi, whilst the regeneration of agroforests towards a more natural state would favour native species and may reduce pest pressure in adjacent crops. In addition, the rapid recolonisation of R. everetti suggests this species would be able to recover from non-target impacts of short-term rodent pest control.

Incorporating anthropogenic effects into trophic ecology: predator-prey interactions in a human-dominated landscape

Apex predators perform important functions that regulate ecosystems worldwide. However, little is known about how ecosystem regulation by predators is influenced by human activities. In particular, how important are top-down effects of predators relative to direct and indirect human-mediated bottom-up and top-down processes? Combining data on species' occurrence from camera traps and hunting records, we aimed to quantify the relative effects of top-down and bottom-up processes in shaping predator and prey distributions in a human-dominated landscape in Transylvania, Romania. By global standards this system is diverse, including apex predators (brown bear and wolf), mesopredators (red fox) and large herbivores (roe and red deer). Humans and free-ranging dogs represent additional predators in the system. Using structural equation modelling, we found that apex predators suppress lower trophic levels, especially herbivores. However, direct and indirect top-down effects of humans affected the ecosystem more strongly, influencing species at all trophic levels. Our study highlights the need to explicitly embed humans and their influences within trophic cascade theory. This will greatly expand our understanding of species interactions in human-modified landscapes, which compose the majority of the Earth's terrestrial surface.

Multiple threats, or multiplying the threats? Interactions between invasive predators and other ecological disturbances

Invasive species have reshaped the composition of biomes across the globe, and considerable cost is now associated with minimising their ecological, social and economic impacts. Mammalian predators are among the most damaging invaders, having caused numerous species extinctions. Here, we review evidence of interactions between invasive predators and six key threats that together have strong potential to influence both the impacts of the predators, and their management. We show that impacts of invasive predators can be classified as either functional or numerical, and that they interact with other threats through both habitat- and community-mediated pathways. Ecosystem context and invasive predator identity are central in shaping variability in these relationships and their outcomes. Greater recognition of the ecological complexities between major processes that threaten biodiversity, including changing spatial and temporal relationships among species, is required to both advance ecological theory and improve conservation actions and outcomes. We discuss how novel approaches to conservation management can be used to address interactions between threatening processes and ameliorate invasive predator impacts.

Bovine viral diarrhea virus in free-ranging wild ruminants in Switzerland: low prevalence of infection despite regular interactions with domestic livestock

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In the frame of an eradication program for bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) in Swiss livestock, the question was raised whether free-ranging wildlife could threaten the success of this sanitary measure. Therefore, we conducted serological and virological investigations on BVD virus (BVDV) infections in the four indigenous wild ruminant species (roe deer, red deer, Alpine chamois and Alpine ibex) from 2009 to 2011, and gathered information on interactions between wild and domestic ruminants in an alpine environment by questionnaire survey. RESULTS: Thirty-two sera out of 1'877 (1.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-2.4) were seropositive for BVDV, and a BVDV1 sub genotype h virus was found in a seropositive chamois (0.05%, 95% CI 0.001-0.3). The seropositive animals originated from sub-alpine or alpine regions and significantly more seropositive red deer, chamois and ibex than roe deer were found. There were no statistically significant differences between sampling units, age classes, genders, and sampling years. The obtained prevalences were significantly lower than those documented in livestock, and most positive wild ruminants were found in proximity of domestic outbreaks. Additionally, BVDV seroprevalence in ibex was significantly lower than previously reported from Switzerland. The survey on interspecific interactions revealed that interactions expected to allow BVDV transmission, from physical contacts to non-simultaneous use of the same areas, regularly occur on pastures among all investigated ruminant species. Interactions involving cervids were more often observed with cattle than with small ruminants, chamois were observed with all three domestic species, and ibex interacted mostly with small ruminants. Interactions related to the use of anthropogenic food sources were frequently observed, especially between red deer and cattle in wintertime. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first report of BVDV RNA isolated from an Alpine chamois. Nevertheless, our results suggest that BVDV infections are only sporadic in Swiss wild ruminants, despite regular occurrence of interactions with potentially infected livestock. Overall, serological, virological and ethological data indicate that wildlife is currently an incidental spill-over host and not a reservoir for BVDV in Switzerland.

Responses to rapid warming at Termination 1a at Gerzensee (Central Europe): Primary succession, albedo, soils, lake development, and ecological interactions

The transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling around 14,685 cal yr BP was a period of extremely rapid climatic warming. From a single core of lake marl taken at Gerzensee (Switzerland) we studied the transition in stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon on bulk sediment and charophyte remains, as well as on monospecific samples of ostracods, after Pisidium a; in addition pollen, chironomids, and Cladocera were analyzed. The δ18O record serves as an estimate of mean air temperature, and by correlation to the one from NGRIP in Greenland it provides a timescale. The timing of responses: The statistically significant zone boundaries of the biostratigraphies are telescoped at the rapid increase of about 3‰ in δ18O at the onset of Bølling. Biotic responses may have occurred within sampling resolution (8 to 16 years), although younger zone boundaries are less synchronous. Gradual and longer-lasting responses include complex processes such as primary or secular succession. During the late-glacial interstadial of Bølling and Allerød, two stronger and two weaker cool phases were found. Biological processes involved in the responses occurred on levels of individuals (e.g. pollen productivity), of populations (increases or decreases, immigration, or extinction), and on the ecosystem level (species interactions such as facilitation or competition). Abiotic and biotic interactions include pedogenesis, nitrogen-fixation, nutrient cycling, catchment hydrology, water chemistry of the lake and albedo (controlled by the transition from tundra to forest). For the Swiss Plateau this major change in vegetation induced a change in the mammal fauna, which in turn led to changes in the tool-making by Paleolithic people.

Matrix models for quantifying competitive intransitivity from species abundance data

In a network of competing species, a competitive intransitivity occurs when the ranking of competitive abilities does not follow a linear hierarchy (A > B > C but C > A). A variety of mathematical models suggests that intransitive networks can prevent or slow down competitive exclusion and maintain biodiversity by enhancing species coexistence. However, it has been difficult to assess empirically the relative importance of intransitive competition because a large number of pairwise species competition experiments are needed to construct a competition matrix that is used to parameterize existing models. Here we introduce a statistical framework for evaluating the contribution of intransitivity to community structure using species abundance matrices that are commonly generated from replicated sampling of species assemblages. We provide metrics and analytical methods for using abundance matrices to estimate species competition and patch transition matrices by using reverse-engineering and a colonization-competition model. These matrices provide complementary metrics to estimate the degree of intransitivity in the competition network of the sampled communities. Benchmark tests reveal that the proposed methods could successfully detect intransitive competition networks, even in the absence of direct measures of pairwise competitive strength. To illustrate the approach, we analyzed patterns of abundance and biomass of five species of necrophagous Diptera and eight species of their hymenopteran parasitoids that co-occur in beech forests in Germany. We found evidence for a strong competitive hierarchy within communities of flies and parasitoids. However, for parasitoids, there was a tendency towards increasing intransitivity in higher weight classes, which represented larger resource patches. These tests provide novel methods for empirically estimating the degree of intransitivity in competitive networks from observational datasets. They can be applied to experimental measures of pairwise species interactions, as well as to spatio-temporal samples of assemblages in homogenous environments or environmental gradients.

(Table A1) Species list of the high Antarctic Weddell Sea food web

Human-induced habitat destruction, overexploitation, introduction of alien species and climate change are causing species to go extinct at unprecedented rates, from local to global scales. There are growing concerns that these kinds of disturbances alter important functions of ecosystems. Our current understanding is that key parameters of a community (e.g. its functional diversity, species composition, and presence/absence of vulnerable species) reflect an ecological network's ability to resist or rebound from change in response to pressures and disturbances, such as species loss. If the food web structure is relatively simple, we can analyse the roles of different species interactions in determining how environmental impacts translate into species loss. However, when ecosystems harbour species-rich communities, as is the case in most natural systems, then the complex network of ecological interactions makes it a far more challenging task to perceive how species' functional roles influence the consequences of species loss. One approach to deal with such complexity is to focus on the functional traits of species in order to identify their respective roles: for instance, large species seem to be more susceptible to extinction than smaller species. Here, we introduce and analyse the marine food web from the high Antarctic Weddell Sea Shelf to illustrate the role of species traits in relation to network robustness of this complex food web. Our approach was threefold: firstly, we applied a new classification system to all species, grouping them by traits other than body size; secondly, we tested the relationship between body size and food web parameters within and across these groups and finally, we calculated food web robustness. We addressed questions regarding (i) patterns of species functional/trophic roles, (ii) relationships between species functional roles and body size and (iii) the role of species body size in terms of network robustness. Our results show that when analyzing relationships between trophic structure, body size and network structure, the diversity of predatory species types needs to be considered in future studies.

The effects of sympatry on patterns of bill morphology between closely related species of birds, worldwide

When closely related species co-occur in sympatry, they face a significant challenge. They must adapt to the same local conditions in their shared environment, which favours the convergent evolution of traits, while simultaneously minimizing the costs of competition for shared resources that typically favours the divergent evolution of traits. Here, we use a comparative sister lineage approach to test how most species have responded to these conflicting selection pressures in sympatry, focusing on a key ecological trait: the bill morphology of birds. If similar bill morphologies incur fitness costs due to species interactions, then we predicted that the bill morphologies of closely related species would differ more in sympatry compared with allopatry. Alternatively, if similar bill morphologies incur fitness benefits due to local adaptation, then we predicted that the bill morphologies would be more similar in sympatry compared with allopatry. We used museum specimens to measure five aspects of bill (maxilla) morphology – depth, length, width, side shape, and bottom shape – in diverse bird species from around the world to test our alternative hypotheses. We found support for both divergent evolution and convergent evolution (or trait retention) in one ecological trait: closely related sympatric species diverged in bill depth, but converged in side shape. These patterns of bill evolution were influenced by the genetic distance between closely related sister taxa and the geographic distance between allopatric lineages. Overall, our results highlight species interactions as an important mechanism for the evolution of some (bill depth), but not all (bill shape), aspects of bill morphology in closely related species in sympatry, and provide strong support for the bill as a key ecological trait that can adapt in different ways to the conflicting challenges of sympatry.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and growth, carbon acquisition, and species interaction of Antarctic phytoplankton species in a laboratory experiment

Despite the fact that ocean acidification is considered to be especially pronounced in the Southern Ocean, little is known about CO2-dependent physiological processes and the interactions of Antarctic phytoplankton key species. We therefore studied the effects of CO2 partial pressure (PCO2) (16.2, 39.5, and 101.3 Pa) on growth and photosynthetic carbon acquisition in the bloom-forming species Chaetoceros debilis, Pseudo-nitzschia subcurvata, Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, and Phaeocystis antarctica. Using membrane-inlet mass spectrometry, photosynthetic O2 evolution and inorganic carbon (Ci) fluxes were determined as a function of CO2 concentration. Only the growth of C. debilis was enhanced under high PCO2. Analysis of the carbon concentrating mechanism (CCM) revealed the operation of very efficient CCMs (i.e., high Ci affinities) in all species, but there were species-specific differences in CO2-dependent regulation of individual CCM components (i.e., CO2 and uptake kinetics, carbonic anhydrase activities). Gross CO2 uptake rates appear to increase with the cell surface area to volume ratios. Species competition experiments with C. debilis and P. subcurvata under different PCO2 levels confirmed the CO2-stimulated growth of C. debilis observed in monospecific incubations, also in the presence of P. subcurvata. Independent of PCO2, high initial cell abundances of P. subcurvata led to reduced growth rates of C. debilis. For a better understanding of future changes in phytoplankton communities, CO2-sensitive physiological processes need to be identified, but also species interactions must be taken into account because their interplay determines the success of a species.

The effects of sympatry on patterns of bill morphology between closely related species of birds, worldwide

When closely related species co-occur in sympatry, they face a significant challenge. They must adapt to the same local conditions in their shared environment, which favours the convergent evolution of traits, while simultaneously minimizing the costs of competition for shared resources that typically favours the divergent evolution of traits. Here, we use a comparative sister lineage approach to test how most species have responded to these conflicting selection pressures in sympatry, focusing on a key ecological trait: the bill morphology of birds. If similar bill morphologies incur fitness costs due to species interactions, then we predicted that the bill morphologies of closely related species would differ more in sympatry compared with allopatry. Alternatively, if similar bill morphologies incur fitness benefits due to local adaptation, then we predicted that the bill morphologies would be more similar in sympatry compared with allopatry. We used museum specimens to measure five aspects of bill (maxilla) morphology – depth, length, width, side shape, and bottom shape – in diverse bird species from around the world to test our alternative hypotheses. We found support for both divergent evolution and convergent evolution (or trait retention) in one ecological trait: closely related sympatric species diverged in bill depth, but converged in side shape. These patterns of bill evolution were influenced by the genetic distance between closely related sister taxa and the geographic distance between allopatric lineages. Overall, our results highlight species interactions as an important mechanism for the evolution of some (bill depth), but not all (bill shape), aspects of bill morphology in closely related species in sympatry, and provide strong support for the bill as a key ecological trait that can adapt in different ways to the conflicting challenges of sympatry.

Modelling the influence of biotic factors on species distribution patterns

Biotic interactions can have large effects on species distributions yet their role in shaping species ranges is seldom explored due to historical difficulties in incorporating biotic factors into models without a priori knowledge on interspecific interactions. Improved SDMs, which account for biotic factors and do not require a priori knowledge on species interactions, are needed to fully understand species distributions. Here, we model the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on species distribution patterns and explore the robustness of distributions under future climate change. We fit hierarchical spatial models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) for lagomorph species throughout Europe and test the predictive ability of models containing only abiotic factors against models containing abiotic and biotic factors. We account for residual spatial autocorrelation using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Model outputs are used to estimate areas in which abiotic and biotic factors determine species’ ranges. INLA models containing both abiotic and biotic factors had substantially better predictive ability than models containing abiotic factors only, for all but one of the four species. In models containing abiotic and biotic factors, both appeared equally important as determinants of lagomorph ranges, but the influences were spatially heterogeneous. Parts of widespread lagomorph ranges highly influenced by biotic factors will be less robust to future changes in climate, whereas parts of more localised species ranges highly influenced by the environment may be less robust to future climate. SDMs that do not explicitly include biotic factors are potentially misleading and omit a very important source of variation. For the field of species distribution modelling to advance, biotic factors must be taken into account in order to improve the reliability of predicting species distribution patterns both presently and under future climate change.