A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Reservoir Management For Flood And Drought Protection Using Infinite Horizon Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a control method that solves in real time an optimal control problem over a finite horizon. The finiteness of the horizon is both the reason of MPC's success and its main limitation. In operational water resources management, MPC has been in fact successfully employed for controlling systems with a relatively short memory, such as canals, where the horizon length is not an issue. For reservoirs, which have generally a longer memory, MPC applications are presently limited to short term management only. Short term reservoir management can be effectively used to deal with fast process, such as floods, but it is not capable of looking sufficiently ahead to handle long term issues, such as drought. To overcome this limitation, we propose an Infinite Horizon MPC (IH-MPC) solution that is particularly suitable for reservoir management. We propose to structure the input signal by use of orthogonal basis functions, therefore reducing the optimization argument to a finite number of variables, and making the control problem solvable in a reasonable time. We applied this solution for the management of the Manantali Reservoir. Manantali is a yearly reservoir located in Mali, on the Senegal river, affecting water systems of Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania. The long term horizon offered by IH-MPC is necessary to deal with the strongly seasonal climate of the region.

Combined Pool/Bilateral Short-Term Hydrothermal Scheduling Model for Day-Ahead Energy Markets

This paper proposes a combined pool/bilateral short term hydrothermal scheduling model (PDC) for the context of the day-ahead energy markets. Some innovative aspects are introduced in the model, such as: i) the hydraulic generation is optimized through the opportunity cost function proposed; ii) there is no decoupling between physical and commercial dispatches, as is the case today in Brazil; iii) interrelationships between pool and bilateral markets are represented through a single optimization problem; iv) risk exposures related to future deficits are intrinsically mitigated; v) the model calculates spot prices in an hourly basis and the results show a coherent correlation between hydrological conditions and calculated prices. The proposed PDC model is solved by a primal-dual interior point method and is evaluated by simulations involving a test system. The results are focused on sensitivity analyses involving the parameters of the model, in such a way to emphasize its main modeling aspects. The results show that the proposed PDC provides a conceptual means for short term price formation for hydrothermal systems.

Ovarian response of Suffolk ewes to estrous synchronization using short-term protocol

The efficacy of estrus synchronization using short-term protocol was evaluated by ultrasound exams in Suffolk ewes during the pre-breeding season. The control Group (n = 12) was synchronized by treatment for 12 days with vaginal sponges impregnated with medroxyprogesterone acetate, and 400 IU eCG at sponge withdrawal. Experimental groups I, II and III kept the sponge in place for 4 days, and 100 µg of PGF2a was administered at sponge withdrawal. Additionally, Group I (n = 12) had 0.1 mg of estradiol benzoate (EB) administered during sponge placement and 50 µg of GnRH 48 hours after sponge removal. Group II (n = 6) had 35 mg of progesterone (P4) injected, and 0.1 mg of EB administered during sponge placement, 400 IU eCG at withdrawal and 48 hours after, 50 µg GnRH were administrated. Group III (n = 12) had 35 mg of P4 and 0.2 mg of EB administered at sponge placement, 400 IU eCG at withdrawal, and 50 µg of GnRH was administrated after 56 hours. Ovaries were monitored through ultrasound scanning. Concerning the first wave, no difference was detected between the control group and the experimental groups. However, the characteristics of ovulatory wave were significantly different between the groups. The duration of the follicular wave was shorter for Group III than for Group II. The follicle in Group I reached its maximum diameter before the Group II. The diameter of the follicle at the sponge withdrawal in the control group was larger than in Group I. After sponge withdrawal, the follicular growth rate was smaller in the control group than in Group III. The maximum diameter of the follicle in Group II was larger than in the other groups. The short-term protocol in which estrogen was used did not synchronize the emergence of the wave of follicular development.

Short-term vs long-term calcium hydroxide therapy after immediate tooth replantation: a histomorphometric study in monkey's teeth

Endodontic treatment is an important step of tooth replantation protocols, but the ideal moment for definitive obturation of replanted teeth has not yet been established. In this study, a histomorphometric analysis was undertaken to evaluate the repair process on immediate replantation of monkeys teeth after calcium hydroxide (CH) therapy for 1 and 6 months followed by root canal filling with a CH-based sealer (Sealapex (R)). The maxillary and mandibular lateral incisors of five female Cebus apella monkeys were extracted, kept in sterile saline for 15 min, replanted and splinted with stainless steel orthodontic wire and composite resin for 10 days. In Group I (control), definitive root canal filling was performed before tooth extraction. In Groups II and III, CH therapy started after removal of splint, and definitive root canal filling was performed 1 and 6 months later, respectively. The animals were euthanized 9 months after replantation, and specimens were processed for histomorphometric analysis. In all groups, epithelial attachment occurred at the cementoenamel junction or very close to this region; the areas of resorption on root surface had small extension and depth and were repaired by newly formed cementum; and the periodontal ligament was organized. Statistical analysis of the scores obtained for the histomorphometric parameters did not show any statistically significant difference (P = 0.1221) among the groups. The results suggests that when endodontic treatment is initiated 10 days after immediate replantation and an antibiotic regimen is associated, definitive root canal filling can be performed after a short-term CH therapy.

The influence of short-term diabetes mellitus and insulin therapy on alveolar bone loss in rats

Background: It is well known that the multiple direct and indirect consequences of hyperglycemia in diabetic individuals have been linked to a number of abnormal host effector mechanisms that could lead to an increased risk of developing periodontal disease.Objective: the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of short-term experimental diabetes and insulin therapy on the severity of alveolar bone loss in rats, and the effect of experimental periodontitis on glycemic control.Methods: Seventy-two male Wistar rats were divided into four groups: group I animals were submitted to dental ligature around lower right first molars (ligated); group II consisted of streptozotocin (STZ)-diabetic, ligated rats; group III represented STZ-diabetic, unligated rats; and group IV consisted of insulin-treated (6 U/day), STZ-diabetic, ligated rats. Blood glucose of all diabetic rats was monitored at regular intervals. Standardized digital radiographs were taken after killing at 7, 15 and 30 days to measure the amount of bone loss about the mesial root surface of the first molar tooth in each rat.Results: No significant (p < 0.05) changes in plasma glucose levels of insulin-treated diabetic rats were found among the different examinations after the beginning of insulin therapy. Rats from group II showed significantly greater increases in mean plasma glucose levels at 15 and 30 days after ligature placement compared with rats from group III (p < 0.05). Furthermore, in spite of the significant alveolar bone loss progression that was observed in groups I, II and IV (p < 0.00001; two-way ANOVA), no significant differences among these groups regarding the severity of bone loss (p = 0.77) and no significant interaction between treatment group and time (p = 0.81) were found.Conclusions: Within the limits of this study, it can be suggested that the severity of periodontal disease was not affected by short-term diabetes, and that experimental periodontitis increased blood glucose levels in uncontrolled diabetic rats.

Short-term low-intensity blood flow restricted interval training improves both aerobic fitness and muscle strength

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of Er:YAG and Er,Cr:YSGG lasers on dentine hypersensitivity. Short-term clinical evaluation

Dentine hypersensitivity (DH) is a painful condition and is a clinical challenge due to the different treatment strategies available. High-intensity lasers have been studied as a possible option. The aim of this randomized, controlled, double-blind clinical study was to evaluate the effects of Er:YAG and Er,Cr:YSGG lasers on DH. The study group comprised 28 subjects who met the inclusion criteria. A visual analogue scale was used to quantify sensitivity before treatment as baseline, immediately before and immediately after treatment, and 1 week and 1 month after treatment. Teeth were assigned to four groups: group 1 control (no treatment), group 2 Er:YAG laser treatment (2 Hz/32.4 mJ/5.9 J/cm(2)), group 3 Er,Cr:YSGG laser treatment (0.25 W/4.4 J/cm(2)), and group 4 Er,Cr:YSGG laser treatment (0.50 W/ 8.9 J/cm(2)). Data were collected and submitted to statistical analysis for both evaporative (air) and mechanical (probe) stimulation. For both the air and probe stimulation no differences were observed between the pretreatment sensitivities. With the evaporative stimulus, the pain level immediately after treatment was reduced; however, after this the values remained stable. Irradiation with the Er:YAG laser was associated with the lowest level of pain. With the mechanical stimulus, group 4 showed the most pronounced decrease in pain immediately after treatment; however, by the end of the study, pain levels had increased. Groups 1, 2 and 3 showed a reduction in pain that was significantly different from that in group 4 after the 4 weeks of clinical follow up. Based on the results and within the limits of this study, it can be concluded that none of the laser treatments studied was capable of completely eliminating pain, but the Er:YAG and Er,Cr:YSGG lasers are suitable for the treatment of DH.

Behavioural changes and occlusal splints are effective in the management of masticatory myofascial pain: a short-term evaluation

The aim of this research was to test the hypothesis that treatment with intra-oral appliances with different occlusal designs was beneficial in the management of pain of masticatory muscles compared with a control group. A total of 51 patients were analysed according to the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (RDC/TMD) to obtain the diagnosis of masticatory myofascial pain (MMP). The sample was then randomly divided into three groups: group I (n = 21) wore a full coverage acrylic stabilisation occlusal splint; group II (n = 16) wore an anterior device nociceptive trigeminal inhibitory (NTI) system; and group III (n = 14) only received counselling for behavioural changes and self-care (the control group). The first two groups also received counselling. Follow-ups were performed after 2 and 6 weeks and 3 months. In these sessions, patients were evaluated by means of a visual analogue scale (VAS) and pressure pain threshold (PPT) of the masticatory muscles. Possible adverse effects were also recorded, such as discomfort while using the appliance and occlusal changes. The results were analysed with KruskalWallis, anova, Tukeys and Friedman tests, with a significance level of 5%. Group I showed improvement in the reported pain at the first follow-up (2 weeks), whereas for groups II and III, this progress was detected only after 6 weeks and 3 months, respectively. The PPT values did not change significantly. It was concluded that behavioural changes are effective in the management of pain in MMP patients. However, the simultaneous use of occlusal devices appears to produce an earlier improvement.

Ovarian response of Suffolk ewes to estrous synchronization using short-term protocol

The efficacy of estrus synchronization using short-term protocol was evaluated by ultrasound exams in Suffolk ewes during the pre-breeding season. The control Group (n = 12) was synchronized by treatment for 12 days with vaginal sponges impregnated with medroxyprogesterone acetate, and 400 IU eCG at sponge withdrawal. Experimental groups I, II and III kept the sponge in place for 4 days, and 100 µg of PGF2a was administered at sponge withdrawal. Additionally, Group I (n = 12) had 0.1 mg of estradiol benzoate (EB) administered during sponge placement and 50 µg of GnRH 48 hours after sponge removal. Group II (n = 6) had 35 mg of progesterone (P4) injected, and 0.1 mg of EB administered during sponge placement, 400 IU eCG at withdrawal and 48 hours after, 50 µg GnRH were administrated. Group III (n = 12) had 35 mg of P4 and 0.2 mg of EB administered at sponge placement, 400 IU eCG at withdrawal, and 50 µg of GnRH was administrated after 56 hours. Ovaries were monitored through ultrasound scanning. Concerning the first wave, no difference was detected between the control group and the experimental groups. However, the characteristics of ovulatory wave were significantly different between the groups. The duration of the follicular wave was shorter for Group III than for Group II. The follicle in Group I reached its maximum diameter before the Group II. The diameter of the follicle at the sponge withdrawal in the control group was larger than in Group I. After sponge withdrawal, the follicular growth rate was smaller in the control group than in Group III. The maximum diameter of the follicle in Group II was larger than in the other groups. The short-term protocol in which estrogen was used did not synchronize the emergence of the wave of follicular development.

Plasma PCSK9 concentrations during an oral fat load and after short term high-fat, high-fat high-protein and high-fructose diets

Background PCSK9 (Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin Kexin type 9) is a circulating protein that promotes hypercholesterolemia by decreasing hepatic LDL receptor protein. Under non interventional conditions, its expression is driven by sterol response element binding protein 2 (SREBP2) and follows a diurnal rhythm synchronous with cholesterol synthesis. Plasma PCSK9 is associated to LDL-C and to a lesser extent plasma triglycerides and insulin resistance. We aimed to verify the effect on plasma PCSK9 concentrations of dietary interventions that affect these parameters. Methods We performed nutritional interventions in young healthy male volunteers and offspring of type 2 diabetic (OffT2D) patients that are more prone to develop insulin resistance, including: i) acute post-prandial hyperlipidemic challenge (n=10), ii) 4 days of high-fat (HF) or high-fat/high-protein (HFHP) (n=10), iii) 7 (HFruc1, n=16) or 6 (HFruc2, n=9) days of hypercaloric high-fructose diets. An acute oral fat load was also performed in two patients bearing the R104C-V114A loss-of-function (LOF) PCSK9 mutation. Plasma PCSK9 concentrations were measured by ELISA. For the HFruc1 study, intrahepatocellular (IHCL) and intramyocellular lipids were measured by 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Hepatic and whole-body insulin sensitivity was assessed with a two-step hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp (0.3 and 1.0 mU.kg-1.min-1). Findings HF and HFHP short-term diets, as well as an acute hyperlipidemic oral load, did not significantly change PCSK9 concentrations. In addition, post-prandial plasma triglyceride excursion was not altered in two carriers of PCSK9 LOF mutation compared with non carriers. In contrast, hypercaloric 7-day HFruc1 diet increased plasma PCSK9 concentrations by 28% (p=0.05) in healthy volunteers and by 34% (p=0.001) in OffT2D patients. In another independent study, 6-day HFruc2 diet increased plasma PCSK9 levels by 93% (p<0.0001) in young healthy male volunteers. Spearman’s correlations revealed that plasma PCSK9 concentrations upon 7-day HFruc1 diet were positively associated with plasma triglycerides (r=0.54, p=0.01) and IHCL (r=0.56, p=0.001), and inversely correlated with hepatic (r=0.54, p=0.014) and whole-body (r=−0.59, p=0.0065) insulin sensitivity. Conclusions Plasma PCSK9 concentrations vary minimally in response to a short term high-fat diet and they are not accompanied with changes in cholesterolemia upon high-fructose diet. Short-term high-fructose intake increased plasma PCSK9 levels, independent on cholesterol synthesis, suggesting a regulation independent of SREBP-2. Upon this diet, PCSK9 is associated with insulin resistance, hepatic steatosis and plasma triglycerides.

Aortic aneurysm sac pressure measurements after endovascular repair using an implantable remote sensor: initial experience and short-term follow-up

The purpose of this single-center study was to report our initial experience with an implantable remote pressure sensor for aneurysm sac pressure measurement in patients post-endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) including short-term follow-up. A pressure sensor (EndoSure, Atlanta, GA) was implanted in 12 patients treated with different commercially available aortic endografts for EVAR. Pressure was read pre- and post-EVAR in the operating room. One-month follow-up (30 days +/- 6 days) was performed including sac pressure readings and IV contrast CT scans. Variables were compared using the paired Student's t test. An intraprocedure type-I endoleak and a type-III endoleak were successfully treated resulting in decreasing sac pressures. In all patients, post-EVAR systolic sac pressure decreased by an average of 33% (P III endoleak. Remote sac pressure measurement may provide important information in addition to imaging and may help to reduce the number of follow-up CT scans.

A Column-Generation Approach for a Short-Term Production Planning Problem in Closed-Loop Supply Chains

We present a new model formulation for a multi-product lot-sizing problem with product returns and remanufacturing subject to a capacity constraint. The given external demand of the products has to be satisfied by remanufactured or newly produced goods. The objective is to determine a feasible production plan, which minimizes production, holding, and setup costs. As the LP relaxation of a model formulation based on the well-known CLSP leads to very poor lower bounds, we propose a column-generation approach to determine tighter bounds. The lower bound obtained by column generation can be easily transferred into a feasible solution by a truncated branch-and-bound approach using CPLEX. The results of an extensive numerical study show the high solution quality of the proposed solution approach.