Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Introduction In 1999, Birigui and Araçatuba were the first municipalities in the State of São Paulo to present autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis in humans (VLH). The aim of this study was to describe the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal behaviors of VLH in Birigui. Methods Secondary data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 1999 to 2012. The incidence, mortality and case fatality rates by sex and age were calculated. The cases of VLH were geocoded and grouped according to census tracts. Local empirical Bayesian incidence rates were calculated. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters was investigated using SaTScan software. Results There were 156 confirmed cases of autochthonous VLH. The incidence rate was higher in the 0-4-year-old children, and the mortality and case fatality rates were higher in people aged 60 years and older. The peaks of incidence occurred in 2006 and 2011. The Bayesian rates identified the presence of VLH in all of the census tracts in the municipality; however, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were found in the central area of the municipality. Conclusions Birigui, located in the Araçatuba region, has recently experienced increasing numbers of VLH cases; this increase is contrary to the behavior observed over the entire region, which has shown a decreasing trend in the number of VLH cases. The observations that the highest incidence is in children 0-4 years old and the highest mortality is in people 60 years and older are in agreement with the expected patterns of VLH.

Spatiotemporal analysis of reported cases of acute Chagas disease in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil, from 2002 to 2013

INTRODUCTION: Control strategies to eliminate the transmission of Chagas disease by insect vectors have significantly decreased the number of reported acute cases in Brazil. However, data regarding the incidence and distribution of acute Chagas disease cases in the State of Pernambuco are unavailable in the literature. METHODS: A geographical information system was used to delineate the spatiotemporal distribution profile of the cases from 2002 to 2013 in 185 municipalities of Pernambuco based on the municipality where notification occurred. The results were presented in digital maps generated by the TerraView software (INPE). RESULTS: A total of 302 cases of acute disease were recorded in 37.8% of the municipalities, for a total of 0.13 cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants per year. Out of the 302 cases, 99.3% were reported between 2002 and 2006. The most affected municipalities were Carnaubeira da Penha, Mirandiba and Terra Nova. The risk maps showed a significant decrease in the number of notifications and a concentration of cases in the Midwest region. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights a significant decrease in new cases of acute Chagas disease in Pernambuco starting in 2006 when Brazil received an international certification for the interruption of vectorial transmission by Triatoma infestans. However, control strategies should still be encouraged because other triatomine species can also transmit the parasite; moreover, other transmission modes must not be neglected.

Spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis in Adamantina, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION : Several municipalities of the Western region of the State of São Paulo have been affected by human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL), including the City of Adamantina, where the first autochthonous cases occurred in 2004. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the spatial and spatiotemporal occurrence of HVL in Adamantina. METHODS : Secondary data regarding the occurrence of HVL in Adamantina between 2004 and 2011 were used. Incidence, mortality, and case fatality rates were calculated. We used local empirical Bayesian incidence rates to represent the occurrence of the disease in the census sector of the city. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of cases was evaluated using scan statistics. In situ observation was performed to assess the socioeconomic and environmental characteristics of the areas with medium and high incidences. RESULTS : Adamantina reported cases in 70% of its census sectors. No differences were observed between sexes. The group aged 0-4 years presented the highest incidence and mortality rates, and the group aged 40-59 years presented the highest fatality rate. We detected a spatiotemporal cluster, which coincided with the commencement of the endemic in the city. CONCLUSIONS : The individuals most affected by the disease were children. The disease was present in areas with better and worse socioeconomic conditions. The use of spatial analysis techniques was important to achieve the study objectives.

Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental data

Programa Doutoral em Matemática e Aplicações.

Quantifying network properties in multi-electrode recordings: spatiotemporal characterization and inter-trial variation of evoked gamma oscillations in mouse somatosensory cortex in vitro.

Linking the structural connectivity of brain circuits to their cooperative dynamics and emergent functions is a central aim of neuroscience research. Graph theory has recently been applied to study the structure-function relationship of networks, where dynamical similarity of different nodes has been turned into a "static" functional connection. However, the capability of the brain to adapt, learn and process external stimuli requires a constant dynamical functional rewiring between circuitries and cell assemblies. Hence, we must capture the changes of network functional connectivity over time. Multi-electrode array data present a unique challenge within this framework. We study the dynamics of gamma oscillations in acute slices of the somatosensory cortex from juvenile mice recorded by planar multi-electrode arrays. Bursts of gamma oscillatory activity lasting a few hundred milliseconds could be initiated only by brief trains of electrical stimulations applied at the deepest cortical layers and simultaneously delivered at multiple locations. Local field potentials were used to study the spatio-temporal properties and the instantaneous synchronization profile of the gamma oscillatory activity, combined with current source density (CSD) analysis. Pair-wise differences in the oscillation phase were used to determine the presence of instantaneous synchronization between the different sites of the circuitry during the oscillatory period. Despite variation in the duration of the oscillatory response over successive trials, they showed a constant average power, suggesting that the rate of expenditure of energy during the gamma bursts is consistent across repeated stimulations. Within each gamma burst, the functional connectivity map reflected the columnar organization of the neocortex. Over successive trials, an apparently random rearrangement of the functional connectivity was observed, with a more stable columnar than horizontal organization. This work reveals new features of evoked gamma oscillations in developing cortex.

Genetic differentiation in Silene dioica metapopulations: estimation of spatiotemporal effects in a successional plant species

Silene dioica is a diploid, dioecious, perennial, insect-pollinated herb and part of the deciduous phase of primary succession in Skeppsvik Archipelago, Gulf of Bothnia, Sweden. These islands are composed of material deposited and left underwater by melting ice at the end of the last ice age. A rapid and relatively constant rate of land uplift of 0.9 cm per year continually creates new islands available for colonization by plants. Because the higher deposits appear first, islands differ in age. Because it is possible to estimate the ages of islands and populations of plant species belonging to early stages of succession, the genetic dynamics occurring within an age-structured metapopulation can be investigated in this archipelago. Fifty-two island populations of S. dioica of known ages, sizes, and distances from each other were studied through electrophoretic data. A number of factors increase the degree of genetic differentiation among these island populations relative to an island model at equilibrium. Newly founded populations were more differentiated than those of intermediate age, which suggests that colonization dynamics increase genetic variance among populations. The very old populations, which decrease in size as they approach extinction, were more differentiated than intermediate-aged populations. Isolation by distance occurs in this system. Colonizers are likely to come from more than one source, and the migrant pool model best explains colonization events in the archipelago. Degree of environmental exposure also affects population differentiation.

Spatiotemporal analysis of multichannel EEG: CARTOOL.

This paper describes methods to analyze the brain's electric fields recorded with multichannel Electroencephalogram (EEG) and demonstrates their implementation in the software CARTOOL. It focuses on the analysis of the spatial properties of these fields and on quantitative assessment of changes of field topographies across time, experimental conditions, or populations. Topographic analyses are advantageous because they are reference independents and thus render statistically unambiguous results. Neurophysiologically, differences in topography directly indicate changes in the configuration of the active neuronal sources in the brain. We describe global measures of field strength and field similarities, temporal segmentation based on topographic variations, topographic analysis in the frequency domain, topographic statistical analysis, and source imaging based on distributed inverse solutions. All analysis methods are implemented in a freely available academic software package called CARTOOL. Besides providing these analysis tools, CARTOOL is particularly designed to visualize the data and the analysis results using 3-dimensional display routines that allow rapid manipulation and animation of 3D images. CARTOOL therefore is a helpful tool for researchers as well as for clinicians to interpret multichannel EEG and evoked potentials in a global, comprehensive, and unambiguous way.

Spatiotemporal Aspects of Environmental Monitoring in the Complex Coastal Region of Southwest Finland

The management and conservation of coastal waters in the Baltic is challenged by a number of complex environmental problems, including eutrophication and habitat degradation. Demands for a more holistic, integrated and adaptive framework of ecosystem-based management emphasize the importance of appropriate information on the status and changes of the aquatic ecosystems. The thesis focuses on the spatiotemporal aspects of environmental monitoring in the extensive and geomorphologically complex coastal region of SW Finland, where the acquisition of spatially and temporally representative monitoring data is inherently challenging. Furthermore, the region is subject to multiple human interests and uses. A holistic geographical approach is emphasized, as it is ultimately the physical conditions that set the frame for any human activity. Characteristics of the coastal environment were examined using water quality data from the database of the Finnish environmental administration and Landsat TM/ETM+ images. A basic feature of the complex aquatic environment in the Archipelago Sea is its high spatial and temporal variability; this foregrounds the importance of geographical information as a basis of environmental assessments. While evidence of a consistent water turbidity pattern was observed, the coastal hydrodynamic realm is also characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. It is therefore also crucial to consider the spatial and temporal representativeness of field monitoring data. Remote sensing may facilitate evaluation of hydrodynamic conditions in the coastal region and the spatial extrapolation of in situ data despite their restrictions. Additionally, remotely sensed images can be used in the mapping of many of those coastal habitats that need to be considered in environmental management. With regard to surface water monitoring, only a small fraction of the currently available data stored in the Hertta-PIVET register can be used effectively in scientific studies and environmental assessments. Long-term consistent data collection from established sampling stations should be emphasized but research-type seasonal assessments producing abundant data should also be encouraged. Thus a more comprehensive coordination of field work efforts is called for. The integration of remote sensing and various field measurement techniques would be especially useful in the complex coastal waters. The integration and development of monitoring system in Finnish coastal areas also requires further scientific assesement of monitoring practices. A holistic approach to the gathering and management of environmental monitoring data could be a cost-effective way of serving a multitude of information needs, and would fit the holistic, ecosystem-based management regimes that are currently being strongly promoted in Europe.

Spatiotemporal Features of Coastal Waters in Southwest Finland

In coastal waters, physico-chemical and biological properties and constituents vary at different time scales. In the study area of this thesis, within the Archipelago Sea in the northern Baltic Sea, seasonal cycles of light and temperature set preconditions for intra-annual variations, but developments at other temporal scales occur as well. Weather-induced runoffs and currents may alter water properties over the short term, and the consequences over time of eutrophication and global changes are to a degree unpredictable. The dynamic characteristics of northern Baltic Sea waters are further diversified at the archipelago coasts. Water properties may differ in adjacent basins, which are separated by island and underwater thresholds limiting water exchange, making the area not only a mosaic of islands but also one of water masses. Long-term monitoring and in situ observations provide an essential data reserve for coastal management and research. Since the seasonal amplitudes of water properties are so high, inter-annual comparisons of water-quality variables have to be based on observations sampled at the same time each year. In this thesis I compare areas by their temporal characteristics, using both inter-annual and seasonal data. After comparing spatial differences in seasonal cycles, I conclude that spatial comparisons and temporal generalizations have to be made with caution. In classifying areas by the state of their waters, the results may be biased even if the sampling is annually simultaneous, since the dynamics of water properties may vary according to the area. The most comprehensive view of the spatiotemporal dynamics of water properties would be achieved by means of comparisons with data consisting of multiple annual samples. For practical reasons, this cannot be achieved with conventional in situ sampling. A holistic understanding of the spatiotemporal features of the water properties of the Archipelago Sea will have to be based on the application of multiple methods, complementing each other’s spatial and temporal coverage. The integration of multi-source observational data and time-series analysis may be methodologically challenging, but it will yield new information as to the spatiotemporal regime of the Archipelago Sea.

Spatio-temporal surface soil heat flux estimates from satellite data: results for the AMMA experiment at the Fakara (Niger) supersite

This paper describes a method that employs Earth Observation (EO) data to calculate spatiotemporal estimates of soil heat flux, G, using a physically-based method (the Analytical Method). The method involves a harmonic analysis of land surface temperature (LST) data. It also requires an estimate of near-surface soil thermal inertia; this property depends on soil textural composition and varies as a function of soil moisture content. The EO data needed to drive the model equations, and the ground-based data required to provide verification of the method, were obtained over the Fakara domain within the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) program. LST estimates (3 km × 3 km, one image 15 min−1) were derived from MSG-SEVIRI data. Soil moisture estimates were obtained from ENVISAT-ASAR data, while estimates of leaf area index, LAI, (to calculate the effect of the canopy on G, largely due to radiation extinction) were obtained from SPOT-HRV images. The variation of these variables over the Fakara domain, and implications for values of G derived from them, were discussed. Results showed that this method provides reliable large-scale spatiotemporal estimates of G. Variations in G could largely be explained by the variability in the model input variables. Furthermore, it was shown that this method is relatively insensitive to model parameters related to the vegetation or soil texture. However, the strong sensitivity of thermal inertia to soil moisture content at low values of relative saturation (<0.2) means that in arid or semi-arid climates accurate estimates of surface soil moisture content are of utmost importance, if reliable estimates of G are to be obtained. This method has the potential to improve large-scale evaporation estimates, to aid land surface model prediction and to advance research that aims to explain failure in energy balance closure of meteorological field studies.

An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model

We compare the characteristics of synthetic European droughts generated by the HiGEM1 coupled climate model run with present day atmospheric composition with observed drought events extracted from the CRU TS3 data set. The results demonstrate consistency in both the rate of drought occurrence and the spatiotemporal structure of the events. Estimates of the probability density functions for event area, duration and severity are shown to be similar with confidence > 90%. Encouragingly, HiGEM is shown to replicate the extreme tails of the observed distributions and thus the most damaging European drought events. The soil moisture state is shown to play an important role in drought development. Once a large-scale drought has been initiated it is found to be 50% more likely to continue if the local soil moisture is below the 40th percentile. In response to increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2, the modelled droughts are found to increase in duration, area and severity. The drought response can be largely attributed to temperature driven changes in relative humidity. 1 HiGEM is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office Hadley Centre Unified Model (HadGEM1) with the horizontal resolution increased to 1.25 x 0.83 degrees in longitude and latitude in the atmosphere and 1/3 x 1/3 degrees in the ocean.

Connecting mean field models of neural activity to EEG and fMRI data

Progress in functional neuroimaging of the brain increasingly relies on the integration of data from complementary imaging modalities in order to improve spatiotemporal resolution and interpretability. However, the usefulness of merely statistical combinations is limited, since neural signal sources differ between modalities and are related non-trivially. We demonstrate here that a mean field model of brain activity can simultaneously predict EEG and fMRI BOLD with proper signal generation and expression. Simulations are shown using a realistic head model based on structural MRI, which includes both dense short-range background connectivity and long-range specific connectivity between brain regions. The distribution of modeled neural masses is comparable to the spatial resolution of fMRI BOLD, and the temporal resolution of the modeled dynamics, importantly including activity conduction, matches the fastest known EEG phenomena. The creation of a cortical mean field model with anatomically sound geometry, extensive connectivity, and proper signal expression is an important first step towards the model-based integration of multimodal neuroimages.

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

Assessing the sensitivities of a distributed snow model to forcing data resolution

Highly heterogeneous mountain snow distributions strongly affect soil moisture patterns; local ecology; and, ultimately, the timing, magnitude, and chemistry of stream runoff. Capturing these vital heterogeneities in a physically based distributed snow model requires appropriately scaled model structures. This work looks at how model scale—particularly the resolutions at which the forcing processes are represented—affects simulated snow distributions and melt. The research area is in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwestern Idaho. In this region, where there is a negative correlation between snow accumulation and melt rates, overall scale degradation pushed simulated melt to earlier in the season. The processes mainly responsible for snow distribution heterogeneity in this region—wind speed, wind-affected snow accumulations, thermal radiation, and solar radiation—were also independently rescaled to test process-specific spatiotemporal sensitivities. It was found that in order to accurately simulate snowmelt in this catchment, the snow cover needed to be resolved to 100 m. Wind and wind-affected precipitation—the primary influence on snow distribution—required similar resolution. Thermal radiation scaled with the vegetation structure (~100 m), while solar radiation was adequately modeled with 100–250-m resolution. Spatiotemporal sensitivities to model scale were found that allowed for further reductions in computational costs through the winter months with limited losses in accuracy. It was also shown that these modeling-based scale breaks could be associated with physiographic and vegetation structures to aid a priori modeling decisions.

Analysis of rain quality data from the South African interior

Rain acidity may be ascribed to emissions from power station stacks, as well as emissions from other industry, biomass burning, maritime influences, agricultural influences, etc. Rain quality data are available for 30 sites in the South African interior, some from as early as 1985 for up to 14 rainfall seasons, while others only have relatively short records. The article examines trends over time in the raw and volume weighted concentrations of the parameters measured, separately for each of the sites for which sufficient data are available. The main thrust, however, is to examine the inter-relationship structure between the concentrations within each rain event (unweighted data), separately for each site, and to examine whether these inter-relationships have changed over time. The rain events at individual sites can be characterized by approximately eight combinations of rainfall parameters (or rain composition signatures), and these are common to all sites. Some sites will have more events from one signature than another, but there appear to be no signatures unique to a single site. Analysis via factor and cluster analysis, with a correspondence analysis of the results, also aid interpretation of the patterns. This spatio-temporal analysis, performed by pooling all rain event data, irrespective of site or time period, results in nine combinations of rainfall parameters being sufficient to characterize the rain events. The sites and rainfall seasons show patterns in these combinations of parameters, with some combinations appearing more frequently during certain rainfall seasons. In particular, the presence of the combination of low acetate and formate with high magnesium appears to be increasing in the later rainfall seasons, as does this combination together with calcium, sodium, chloride, potassium and fluoride. As expected, sites close together exhibit similar signatures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.