Growth and externalities across economies : an empirical analysis using spatial econometrics

Recent theoretical models of economic growth have emphasised the role of external effects on the accumulation of factors of production. Although most of the literature has considered the externalities across firms within a region, in this paper we go a step further and consider the possibility that these externalities cross the barriers of regional economies. We assess the role of these external effects in explaining growth and economic convergence. We present a simple growth model, which includes externalities across economies, developing a methodology for testing their existence and estimating their strength. In our view, spatial econometrics is naturally suited to an empirical consideration of these externalities. We obtain evidence on the presence of significant externalities both across Spanish and European regions.

Growth and externalities across economies : an empirical analysis using spatial econometrics

Recent theoretical models of economic growth have emphasised the role of external effects on the accumulation of factors of production. Although most of the literature has considered the externalities across firms within a region, in this paper we go a step further and consider the possibility that these externalities cross the barriers of regional economies. We assess the role of these external effects in explaining growth and economic convergence. We present a simple growth model, which includes externalities across economies, developing a methodology for testing their existence and estimating their strength. In our view, spatial econometrics is naturally suited to an empirical consideration of these externalities. We obtain evidence on the presence of significant externalities both across Spanish and European regions.

Spatial distribution and biomass of aquatic rooted macrophytes and their relevance in the metabolism of a Mediterranean coastal lagoon

This work aims to characterise the current autotrophic compartment of the Albufera des Grau coastal lagoon (Menorca, Balearic Islands) and to assess the relationship between the submerged macrophytes and the limnological parameters of the lagoon. During the study period the submerged vegetation was dominated by the macrophyte Ruppia cirrhosa, which formed dense extensive meadows covering 79% of the surface. Another macrophyte species, Potamogeton pectinatus, was also observed but only forming small stands near the rushing streams. Macroalgae were only occasionally observed. Macrophyte biomass showed a clear seasonal trend, with maximum values in July. The biomass of R. cirrhosa achieved 1760 g DW m-2, the highest biomass ever reported for this species in the literature. The seasonal production-decomposition cycle of the macrophyte meadows appears to drive the nutrient dynamics and carbon fluxes in the lagoon. Despite the significant biomass accumulation and the absence of a washout of nutrients and organic matter to the sea, the lagoon did not experience a dystrophic collapse. These results indicate that internal metabolism is more important than exchange processes in the lagoon.

Analysis and spatial modeling of the indoor radon Swiss data

The present research deals with an important public health threat, which is the pollution created by radon gas accumulation inside dwellings. The spatial modeling of indoor radon in Switzerland is particularly complex and challenging because of many influencing factors that should be taken into account. Indoor radon data analysis must be addressed from both a statistical and a spatial point of view. As a multivariate process, it was important at first to define the influence of each factor. In particular, it was important to define the influence of geology as being closely associated to indoor radon. This association was indeed observed for the Swiss data but not probed to be the sole determinant for the spatial modeling. The statistical analysis of data, both at univariate and multivariate level, was followed by an exploratory spatial analysis. Many tools proposed in the literature were tested and adapted, including fractality, declustering and moving windows methods. The use of Quan-tité Morisita Index (QMI) as a procedure to evaluate data clustering in function of the radon level was proposed. The existing methods of declustering were revised and applied in an attempt to approach the global histogram parameters. The exploratory phase comes along with the definition of multiple scales of interest for indoor radon mapping in Switzerland. The analysis was done with a top-to-down resolution approach, from regional to local lev¬els in order to find the appropriate scales for modeling. In this sense, data partition was optimized in order to cope with stationary conditions of geostatistical models. Common methods of spatial modeling such as Κ Nearest Neighbors (KNN), variography and General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) were proposed as exploratory tools. In the following section, different spatial interpolation methods were applied for a par-ticular dataset. A bottom to top method complexity approach was adopted and the results were analyzed together in order to find common definitions of continuity and neighborhood parameters. Additionally, a data filter based on cross-validation was tested with the purpose of reducing noise at local scale (the CVMF). At the end of the chapter, a series of test for data consistency and methods robustness were performed. This lead to conclude about the importance of data splitting and the limitation of generalization methods for reproducing statistical distributions. The last section was dedicated to modeling methods with probabilistic interpretations. Data transformation and simulations thus allowed the use of multigaussian models and helped take the indoor radon pollution data uncertainty into consideration. The catego-rization transform was presented as a solution for extreme values modeling through clas-sification. Simulation scenarios were proposed, including an alternative proposal for the reproduction of the global histogram based on the sampling domain. The sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) was presented as the method giving the most complete information, while classification performed in a more robust way. An error measure was defined in relation to the decision function for data classification hardening. Within the classification methods, probabilistic neural networks (PNN) show to be better adapted for modeling of high threshold categorization and for automation. Support vector machines (SVM) on the contrary performed well under balanced category conditions. In general, it was concluded that a particular prediction or estimation method is not better under all conditions of scale and neighborhood definitions. Simulations should be the basis, while other methods can provide complementary information to accomplish an efficient indoor radon decision making.

Spatial Variability and Contamination of Heavy Metals in the Inter-tidal Systems of a Tropical Environment

Heavy metals in the surface sediments of the two coastal ecosystems of Cochin, southwest India were assessed. The study intends to evaluate the degree of anthropogenic influence on heavy metal concentration in the sediments of the mangrove and adjacent estuarine stations using enrichment factor and geoaccumulation index. The inverse relationship of Cd and Zn with texture in the mangrove sediments suggested the anthropogenic enrichment of these metals in the mangrove systems. In the estuarine sediments, the absence of any significant correlation of the heavy metals with other sedimentary parameters and their strong interdependence revealed the possibility that the input is not through the natural weathering processes. The analysis of enrichment factor indicated a minor enrichment for Pb and Zn in mangrove sediments. While, extremely severe enrichment for Cd, moderate enrichment for Zn and minor enrichment of Pb were observed in estuarine system. The geo accumulation index exhibited very low values for all metals except Zn, indicating the sediments of the mangrove ecosystem are unpolluted to moderately polluted by anthropogenic activities. However, very strongly polluted condition for Cd and a moderately polluted condition for Zn were evident in estuarine sediments

Chemometric study on the trace metal accumulation in the sediments of the Cochin Estuary―Southwest coast of India

The distribution and accumulation of trace metals in the sediments of the Cochin estuary during the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon periods were investigated. Sediment samples from 14 locations were collected and analysed for the metal contents (Mg, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb), organic carbon, total nitrogen, total sulphur and grain size. The data were processed using statistical tools like correlation, factor and cluster analysis. The study revealed an enrichment of Cd and Zn in the study area particularly at station 2, which is confirmed by enrichment factor, contamination factor and geoaccumulation index. The factor analysis revealed that the source of Cd and Zn may be same. The study indicated that the spatial variation for the metals like Mg, Cr, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were predominant unlike Mn which shows a temporal variation. The strong association of trace metals with Fe and Mn hydroxides and oxides are prominent along the Cochin estuary. The anthropogenic inputs of industrial effluents mainly control the trace metals enrichment in the Cochin estuary

Migration and Spatial Development

This is an empirical study with theoretical interpretation and elaboration simultaneously on the migration process and the related spatial development in contemporary China. In so doing, there is always a combination of series of studies of the modernization of the migrants themselves with accumulation of forms of capital and changes of lebenswelt (life world) as well as the regions of their origins by the effective use of the gained resources from outgoing migration and remigration. With great efforts made to put the issues together for analysis, the author has taken three approaches to the study based on the political and economic institutional arrangements, the field work data and the elaboration of respective findings. First, as the analytical parts of the institutional changes, which have gone through the whole research, many of the policies from state level to townships involved in the migration, remigration and spatial development have been interpreted with Chinese political and cultural insight. The making of these, as the means of understanding the contexts of macro level and micro level cases is served as key linkages between scholarly imagination and social reality. Indeed most of the discussions made to explain the phenomena such as the sudden upsurge of migration flows, the emergence of three generations, the strong and weak trends of remigration as well as the related spatial development planning, etc are mainly due to the domination, at least the impact of governments decision-making in spite of growing market functioning in often operative manners. Secondly, case studies of the effects of migration and remigration are carried out between the years of 1995 and 2005 in the costal urban regions as designations and the interior rural regions as origins. Conducted mainly by the author, the cases drawn in the research focus on the process of migration with an accumulation of forms of capital away from home and the effective use of the resources flowing back to home areas. As a result, ways of accumulation and utilization of the economic, social and cultural capital are described and interpreted in terms of the development and modernization of both the migrants themselves and the regions where they come out from or move to in the future. Thirdly, in accordance with the findings generated from the cases, the author proposes in the final chapter an important argumentation as conclusion that the duel social-economic structure will inevitably be broken up and reformulated with flows of migrants and forms of capital they possess as types of future spatial development that will be put into practice. With scenarios and all the other conclusions worked out in the end, the research concludes that the pluralistic spatial development in the condition of constant space flows between regions can be a decisive line of thinking in the process of urbanization, industrialization and modernization in the long run in the future. Since this is an exploratory study of the past and present, the author has left some space open for academic debates and put forward suggestions on the inclusion of future research before implementing policies necessary for migration associated spatial practice and development.

Mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes in the Okstindan area of northern Norway, using Geomorphic Process Units as derived from remote sensing and ground survey

The delineation of Geomorphic Process Units (GPUs) aims to quantify past, current and future geomorphological processes and the sediment flux associated with them. Five GPUs have been identified for the Okstindan area of northern Norway and these were derived from the combination of Landsat satellite imagery (TM and ETM+) with stereo aerial photographs (used to construct a Digital Elevation Model) and ground survey. The Okstindan study area is sub-arctic and mountainous and is dominated by glacial and periglacial processes. The GPUs exclude the glacial system (some 37% of the study area) and hence they are focussed upon periglacial and colluvial processes. The identified GPUs are: 1. solifluction and rill erosion; 2. talus creep, slope wash and rill erosion; 3. accumulation of debris by rock and boulder fall; 4. rockwalls; and 5. stable ground with dissolved transport. The GPUs have been applied to a ‘test site’ within the study area in order to illustrate their potential for mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes. The test site within the study area is a catchment which is representative of the range of geomorphological processes identified.

Climate-related changes in peatland carbon accumulation during the last millennium.

Peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon store and a persistent natural carbon sink during the Holocene, but there is considerable uncertainty over the fate of peatland carbon in a changing climate. It is generally assumed that higher temperatures will increase peat decay, causing a positive feedback to climate warming and contributing to the global positive carbon cycle feedback. Here we use a new extensive database of peat profiles across northern high latitudes to examine spatial and temporal patterns of carbon accumulation over the past millennium. Opposite to expectations, our results indicate a small negative carbon cycle feedback from past changes in the long-term accumulation rates of northern peatlands. Total carbon accumulated over the last 1000 yr is linearly related to contemporary growing season length and photosynthetically active radiation, suggesting that variability in net primary productivity is more important than decomposition in determining long-term carbon accumulation. Furthermore, northern peatland carbon sequestration rate declined over the climate transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA), probably because of lower LIA temperatures combined with increased cloudiness suppressing net primary productivity. Other factors including changing moisture status, peatland distribution, fire, nitrogen deposition, permafrost thaw and methane emissions will also influence future peatland carbon cycle feedbacks, but our data suggest that the carbon sequestration rate could increase over many areas of northern peatlands in a warmer future.

A 2000-year annual record of snow accumulation rates for Law Dome, East Antarctica

Accurate high-resolution records of snow accumulation rates in Antarctica are crucial for estimating ice sheet mass balance and subsequent sea level change. Snowfall rates at Law Dome, East Antarctica, have been linked with regional atmospheric circulation to the mid-latitudes as well as regional Antarctic snowfall. Here, we extend the length of the Law Dome accumulation record from 750 years to 2035 years, using recent annual layer dating that extends to 22 BCE. Accumulation rates were calculated as the ratio of measured to modelled layer thicknesses, multiplied by the long-term mean accumulation rate. The modelled layer thicknesses were based on a power-law vertical strain rate profile fitted to observed annual layer thickness. The periods 380–442, 727–783 and 1970–2009 CE have above-average snow accumulation rates, while 663–704, 933–975 and 1429–1468 CE were below average, and decadal-scale snow accumulation anomalies were found to be relatively common (74 events in the 2035-year record). The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates, and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica, demonstrating that the Law Dome record captures larger-scale variability across a large region of East Antarctica well beyond the immediate vicinity of the Law Dome summit. Spectral analysis reveals periodicities in the snow accumulation record which may be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) frequencies.

Spatial variability of soil CO2 emission in a sugarcane area characterized by secondary information

Soil CO2 emission (FCO2) is governed by the inherent properties of the soil, such as bulk density (BD). Mapping of FCO2 allows the evaluation and identification of areas with different accumulation potential of carbon. However, FCO2 mapping over larger areas is not feasible due to the period required for evaluation. This study aimed to assess the quality of FCO2 spatial estimates using values of BD as secondary information. FCO2 and BD were evaluated on a regular sampling grid of 60 m × 60 m comprising 141 points, which was established on a sugarcane area. Four scenarios were defined according to the proportion of the number of sampling points of FCO2 to those of BD. For these scenarios, 67 (F67), 87 (F87), 107 (F107) and 127 (F127) FCO2 sampling points were used in addition to 127 BD sampling points used as supplementary information. The use of additional information from the BD provided an increase in the accuracy of the estimates only in the F107, F67 and F87 scenarios, respectively. The F87 scenario, with the approximate ratio between the FCO2 and BD of 1.00:1.50, presented the best relative improvement in the quality of estimates, thereby indicating that the BD should be sampled at a density 1.5 time greater than that applied for the FCO2. This procedure avoided problems related to the high temporal variability associated with FCO2, which enabled the mapping of this variable to be elaborated in large areas.

Spatial and temporal variation in settlement, growth and condition of the rockfish species Sebastes caurinus and Sebastes carnatus in the Channel Islands region, Santa Barbara, CA

Survival during the early life stages of marine species, including nearshore temperate reef fishes, is typically very low, and small changes in mortality rates, due to physiological and environmental conditions, can have marked effects on survival of a cohort and, on a larger scale, on the success of a recruitment season. Moreover, trade offs between larval growth and accumulation of energetic resources prior to settlement are likely to influence growth and survival until this critical period and afterwards. Rockfish recruitment rates are notoriously variable between years and across geographic locations. Monitoring of rates of onshore delivery of pelagic juveniles (defined here as settlement) of two species of nearshore rockfishes, Sebastes caurinus and Sebastes carnatus, was done between 2003-2009 years using artificial collectors placed at San Miguel and Santa Cruz Island, off Southern California coast. I investigated spatiotemporal variation in settlement rate, lipid content, pelagic larval duration and larval growth of the newly settled fishes; I assessed relationships between birth date, larval growth, early life-history characteristics and lipid content at settlement, considering also interspecific differences; finally, I attempt to relate interannual patterns of settlement and of early life history traits to easily accessible, local and regional indices of ocean conditions including in situ ocean temperature and regional upwelling, sea surface temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration. Spatial variations appeared to be of low relevance, while significant interannual differences were detected in settlement rate, pelagic larval duration and larval growth. The amount of lipid content of the newly settled fishes was highly variable in space and time, but did not differ between the two species and did not show any relationships with early life history traits, indicating that no trade off involved these physiological processes or they were masked by high individual variability in different periods of larval life. Significant interspecific differences were found in the timing of parturition and settlement and in larval growth rates, with S. carnatus growing faster and breeding and settling later than S. caurinus. The two species exhibited also different patterns of correlations between larval growth rates and larval duration. S. carnatus larval duration was longer when the growth in the first two weeks post-hatch was faster, while S. caurinus had a shorter larval duration when grew fast in the middle and in the end of larval life, suggesting different larval strategies. Fishes with longer larval durations were longer in size at settlement and exhibited longer planktonic phase in periods of favourable environmental conditions. Ocean conditions had a low explanatory power for interannual variation in early life history traits, but a very high explanatory power for settlement fluctuations, with regional upwelling strength being the principal indicator. Nonetheless, interannual variability in larval duration and growth were related to great phenological changes in upwelling happened during the period of this study and that caused negative consequences at all trophic levels along the California coast. Despite the low explanatory power of the environmental variables used in this study on the variation of larval biological traits, environmental processes were differently related with early life history characteristics analyzed to species, indicating possible species-specific susceptibility to ocean conditions and local environmental adaptation, which should be further investigated. These results have implications for understanding the processes influencing larval and juvenile survival, and consequently recruitment variability, which may be dependent on biological characteristics and environmental conditions.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Greenland accumulation and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation in ERA-Interim and paleoclimate simulations

Changes in Greenland accumulation and the stability in the relationship between accumulation variability and large-scale circulation are assessed by performing time-slice simulations for the present day, the preindustrial era, the early Holocene, and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with a comprehensive climate model. The stability issue is an important prerequisite for reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation variability based on accumulation or precipitation proxy records from Greenland ice cores. The analysis reveals that the relationship between accumulation variability and large-scale circulation undergoes a significant seasonal cycle. As the contributions of the individual seasons to the annual signal change, annual mean accumulation variability is not necessarily related to the same atmospheric circulation patterns during the different climate states. Interestingly, within a season, local Greenland accumulation variability is indeed linked to a consistent circulation pattern, which is observed for all studied climate periods, even for the LGM. Hence, it would be possible to deduce a reliable reconstruction of seasonal atmospheric variability (e.g., for North Atlantic winters) if an accumulation or precipitation proxy were available that resolves single seasons. We further show that the simulated impacts of orbital forcing and changes in the ice sheet topography on Greenland accumulation exhibit strong spatial differences, emphasizing that accumulation records from different ice core sites regarding both interannual and long-term (centennial to millennial) variability cannot be expected to look alike since they include a distinct local signature. The only uniform signal to external forcing is the strong decrease in Greenland accumulation during glacial (LGM) conditions and an increase associated with the recent rise in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Spatial Patterns in Mass Balance of the Siple Coast and Amundsen Sea Sectors, West Antarctica

Local rates of change in ice-sheet thickness were calculated at IS sites in West Antarctica using the submergence velocity technique. This method entails a comparison of the vertical velocity of the ice sheet, measured using repeat global positioning system surveys of markers, and local long-term rates of snow accumulation obtained using firn-core stratigraphy. Any significant difference between these two quantities represents a thickness change with time. Measurements were conducted at sites located similar to 100-200 km apart along US ITASE traverse routes, and at several isolated locations. All but one of the sites are distributed in the Siple Coast and the Amundsen Sea basin along contours of constant elevation, along flowlines, across ice divides and close to regions of enhanced flow. Calculated rates of thickness change are different from site to site. Most of the large rates of change in ice thickness (similar to 10 cm a(-1) or larger) are observed in or close to regions of rapid flow, and are probably related to ice-dynamics effects. Near-steady-state conditions are calculated mostly at sites in the slow-moving ice-sheet interior and near the main West Antarctic ice divide. These results are consistent with regional estimates of ice-sheet change derived from remote-sensing measurements at similar locations in West Antarctica.