Realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution regional climate model

The realistic representation of rainfall on the local scale in climate models remains a key challenge. Realism encompasses the full spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, and is a key indicator of model skill in representing the underlying processes. In particular, if rainfall is more realistic in a climate model, there is greater confidence in its projections of future change. In this study, the realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution (1.5 km) regional climate model (RCM) is compared to a coarser-resolution 12-km RCM. This is the first time a convection-permitting model has been run for an extended period (1989–2008) over a region of the United Kingdom, allowing the characteristics of rainfall to be evaluated in a climatological sense. In particular, the duration and spatial extent of hourly rainfall across the southern United Kingdom is examined, with a key focus on heavy rainfall. Rainfall in the 1.5-km RCM is found to be much more realistic than in the 12-km RCM. In the 12-km RCM, heavy rain events are not heavy enough, and tend to be too persistent and widespread. While the 1.5-km model does have a tendency for heavy rain to be too intense, it still gives a much better representation of its duration and spatial extent. Long-standing problems in climate models, such as the tendency for too much persistent light rain and errors in the diurnal cycle, are also considerably reduced in the 1.5-km RCM. Biases in the 12-km RCM appear to be linked to deficiencies in the representation of convection.

Temporal and spatial distribution of the commercial shrimp Litopenaeus schmitti (Dendrobranchiata: Penaeidae) in the south-eastern Brazilian coast

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Algeria

In this paper, the spatial and temporal distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index (CI) in Algeria (south Mediterranean Sea) has been assessed. CI is an index related to the rainfall intensity and erosive capacity; therefore, this index is of great interest for studies on torrential rainfall and floods. Forty-two daily rainfall series based on high-quality and fairly regular rainfall records for the period from 1970 to 2008 were used. The daily precipitation CI results allowed the identification of three climate zones: the northern country, characterized by coastal regions with CI values between 0.59 and 0.63; the highlands, with values between 0.57 and 0.62, except for the region of Biskra (CI = 0.70); and the southern region of the country, with high rainfall concentrations with values between 0.62 and 0.69.

Spatial distribution of runoff depth from a watershed located in a cuesta relief area of São Paulo State, Brazil

This study was undertaken in a 1566 ha drainage basin situated in an area with cuesta relief in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The objectives were: 1) to map the maximum potential soil water retention capacity, and 2) to simulate the depth of surface runoff in each geographical position of the area based on a typical rainfall event. The database required for the development of this research was generated in the environment of the geographical information system ArcInfo v.10.1. Undeformed soil samples were collected at 69 points. The ordinary kriging method was used in the interpolation of the values of soil density and maximum potential soil water retention capacity. The spherical model allowed for better adjustment of the semivariograms corresponding to the two soil attributes for the depth of 0 to 20 cm, while the Gaussian model enabled a better fit of the spatial behavior of the two variables for the depth of 20 to 40 cm. The simulation of the spatial distribution revealed a gradual increase in the depth of surface runoff for the rainfall event taken as example (25 mm) from the reverse to the peripheral depression of the cuesta (from west to east). There is a positive aspect observed in the gradient, since the sites of highest declivity, especially those at the front of the cuesta, are closer to the western boundary of the watershed where the lowest depths of runoff occur. This behavior, in conjunction with certain values of erodibility and depending on the land use and cover, can help mitigate the soil erosion processes in these areas.

Scaling properties of rainfall and desert dust in the Canary Islands

[EN] Precipitation and desert dust event occurrence time series measured in the Canary Islands region are examined with the primary intention of exploring their scaling characteristics as well as their spatial variability in terms of the islands topography and geographical orientation. In particular, the desert dust intrusion regime in the islands is studied in terms of its relationship with visibility. Analysis of dust and rainfall events over the archipelago exhibits distributions in time that obey power laws. Results show that the rain process presents a high clustering and irregular pattern on short timescales and a more scattered structure for long ones. In contrast, dustiness presents a more uniform and dense structure and, consequently, a more persistent behaviour on short timescales. It was observed that the fractal dimension of rainfall events shows an important spatial variability, which increases with altitude, as well as towards northern latitudes and western longitudes.

Variability Modeling Of Rainfall, Deforestation, And Incidence Of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis In Orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.

Spatial analysis of urban violence based on emergency room data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

Environmental and grazing influence on spatial variability of intertidal biofilm on subtropical rocky shores

Epilithic biofilm on rocky shores is regulated by physico-chemical and biological factors and is important as a source of food for benthic organisms. The influences of environmental and grazing pressure on spatial variability of biomass of biofilm were evaluated on shores on the north coast of Sao Paulo State (SE Brazil). A general trend of greater abundance of microalgae was observed lower on the shore, but neither of the environmental factors evaluated (wave exposure and shore level) showed consistent effects, and differences were found among specific shores or times (September 2007 and March 2008). The abundance of slow-moving grazers (limpets and littorinids) showed a negative correlation with chlorophyll a concentration on shores. However, experimental exclusion of these grazers failed to show consistent results at small spatial scales. Observations of divergent abundances of the isopod Ligia exotica and biomass of biofilm on isolated boulders on shores led to a short exclusion experiment, where the grazing pressure by L. exotica significantly decreased microalgal biomass. The result suggests that grazing activities of this fast-moving consumer probably mask the influence of slow-moving grazers at small spatial scales, while both have an additive effect at larger scales that masks environmental influences. This is the first evaluation of the impact of the fast-moving herbivore L. exotica on microalgal biomass on rocky shores and opens an interesting discussion about the role of these organisms in subtropical coastal environments.

Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial pattern of black spot incidence within citrus trees related to disease severity and pathogen dispersal

Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

Spatial patterns of soil attributes and components in a mangrove system in Southeast Brazil (Sao Paulo)

Purpose Among environmental factors governing innumerous processes that are active in estuarine environments, those of edaphic character have received special attention in recent studies. With the objectives of determining the spatial patterns of soil attributes and components across different mangrove forest landscapes and obtaining additional information on the cause-effect relationships between these variables and position within the estuary, we analyzed several soil attributes in 31 mangrove soil profiles from the state of So Paulo (Guaruja, Brazil). Materials and methods Soil samples were collected at low tide along two transects within the CrumahA(0) mangrove forest. Samples were analyzed to determine pH, Eh, salinity, and the percentages of sand, silt, clay, total organic carbon (TOC), and total S. Mineralogy of the clay fraction (< 2 mm) was also studied by X-ray diffraction analysis, and partitioning of solid-phase Fe was performed by sequential extraction. Results and discussion The results obtained indicate important differences in soil composition at different depths and landscape positions, causing variations in physicochemical parameters, clay mineralogy, TOC contents, and iron geochemistry. The results also indicate that physicochemical conditions may vary in terms of different local microtopographies. Soil salinity was determined by relative position in relation to flood tide and transition areas with highlands. The proportions of TOC and total S are conditioned by the sedimentation of organic matter derived from vegetation and by the prevailing redox conditions, which clearly favored intense sulfate reduction in the soils (similar to 80% of the total Fe is Fe-pyrite). Particle-size distribution is conditioned by erosive/deposition processes (present and past) and probably by the positioning of ancient and reworked sandy ridges. The existing physicochemical conditions appear to contribute to the synthesis (smectite) and transformation (kaolinite) of clay minerals. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the position of soils in the estuary greatly affects soil attributes. Differences occur even at small scales (meters), indicating that both edaphic (soil classification, soil mineralogy, and soil genesis) and environmental (contamination and carbon stock) studies should take such variability into account.

Differentiation of soil properties related to the spatial association of wheat roots and soil macropores

Under certain soil conditions, e.g. hardsetting clay B-horizons of South-Eastern Australia, wheat plants do not perform as well as would be expected given measurements of bulk soil attributes. In such soils, measurement indicates that a large proportion (80%) of roots are preferentially located in the soil within 1 mm of macropores. This paper addresses the question of whether there are biological and soil chemical effects concomitant with this observed spatial relationship. The properties of soil manually dissected from the 1-3 mm wide region surrounding macropores, the macropore sheath, were compared to those that are measured in a conventional manner on the bulk soil. Field specimens of two different soil materials were dissected to examine biological differentiation. To ascertain whether the macropore sheath soil differs from rhizosphere soil, wheat was grown in structured and repacked cores under laboratory conditions. The macropore sheath soil contained more microbial biomass per unit mass than both the bulk soil and the rhizosphere. The bacterial population in the macropore sheath was able to utilise a wider range of carbon substrates and to a greater extent than the bacterial population in the corresponding bulk soil. These differences between the macropore sheath and bulk soil were almost non-existent in the repacked cores. Evidence for larger numbers of propagules of the broad host range fungus Pythium in the macropore sheath soil were also obtained.

Local-global processing in early-onset schizophrenia: Evidence for an impairment in shifting the spatial scale of attention

In this study we report the results of two experiments on visual attention conducted with patients with early-onset schizophrenia. These experiments investigated the effect of irrelevant spatial-scale information upon the processing of relevant spatial-scale information, and the ability to shift the spatial scale of attention, across consecutive trials, between different levels of the hierarchical stimulus. Twelve patients with early-onset schizophrenia and matched controls performed local-global tasks under: (1) directed attention conditions with a consistency manipulation and (2) divided-attention conditions. In the directed-attention paradigm, the early-onset patients exhibited the normal patterns of global advantage and interference, and were not unduly affected by the consistency manipulation. Under divided-attention conditions, however, the early-onset patients exhibited a local-processing deficit. The source of this local processing deficit lay in the prolonged reaction time to local targets, when these had been preceded by a global target, but not when preceded by a local target. These findings suggest an impaired ability to shift the spatial scale of attention from a global to a local spatial scale in early-onset schizophrenia. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.