Multidecadal modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures

Observations suggest a possible link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, with the warm AMO phase being related to weaker ENSO variability. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model is used to investigate this relationship and to elucidate mechanisms responsible for it. Anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the positive AMO lead to change in the basic state in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This basic state change is associated with a deepened thermocline and reduced vertical stratification of the equatorial Pacific ocean, which in turn leads to weakened ENSO variability. We suggest a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific. The results suggest a non-local mechanism for changes in ENSO statistics and imply that anomalous Atlantic ocean SSTs can modulate both mean climate and climate variability over the Pacific.

The effect of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) on Ashes series results in Australia

An analysis of the results of those "Ashes" cricket test matches between England and Australia which are played in Australia suggests a correlation between these results and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. In those years with a positive ENSO, results favour Australia, whereas in those years with a negative ENSO, results are more even. A potential mechanism is presented for this apparent correlation.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation

This 20th anniversary edition of PAGES news explores the elusive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from a paleo-perspective. The initiative for this special section came out of a 2011 PMIP workshop. In a mini section, a newly introduced format in the PAGES newsletter, four articles on data assimilation address methods of combining observations and model simulations. Finally, this newsletter also features several reports on the 2013 2nd Young Scientists Meeting held in Goa, India.

El Niño southern oscillation and its effect on fog oases along the Peruvian and Chilean coastal deserts

Fog oases, locally named Lomas, are distributed in a fragmented way along the western coast of Chile and Peru (South America) between ~6°S and 30°S following an altitudinal gradient determined by a fog layer. This fragmentation has been attributed to the hyper aridity of the desert. However, periodically climatic events influence the ‘normal seasonality’ of this ecosystem through a higher than average water input that triggers plant responses (e.g. primary productivity and phenology). The impact of the climatic oscillation may vary according to the season (wet/dry). This thesis evaluates the potential effect of climate oscillations, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through the analysis of vegetation of this ecosystem following different approaches: Chapters two and three show the analysis of fog oasis along the Peruvian and Chilean deserts. The objectives are: 1) to explain the floristic connection of fog oases analysing their taxa composition differences and the phylogenetic affinities among them, 2) to explore the climate variables related to ENSO which likely affect fog production, and the responses of Lomas vegetation (composition, productivity, distribution) to climate patterns during ENSO events. Chapters four and five describe a fog-oasis in southern Peru during the 2008-2010 period. The objectives are: 3) to describe and create a new vegetation map of the Lomas vegetation using remote sensing analysis supported by field survey data, and 4) to identify the vegetation change during the dry season. The first part of our results show that: 1) there are three significantly different groups of Lomas (Northern Peru, Southern Peru, and Chile) with a significant phylogenetic divergence among them. The species composition reveals a latitudinal gradient of plant assemblages. The species origin, growth-forms typologies, and geographic position also reinforce the differences among groups. 2) Contradictory results have emerged from studies of low-cloud anomalies and the fog-collection during El Niño (EN). EN increases water availability in fog oases when fog should be less frequent due to the reduction of low-clouds amount and stratocumulus. Because a minor role of fog during EN is expected, it is likely that measurements of fog-water collection during EN are considering drizzle and fog at the same time. Although recent studies on fog oases have shown some relationship with the ENSO, responses of vegetation have been largely based on descriptive data, the absence of large temporal records limit the establishment of a direct relationship with climatic oscillations. The second part of the results show that: 3) five different classes of different spectral values correspond to the main land cover of Lomas using a Vegetation Index (VI). The study case is characterised by shrubs and trees with variable cover (dense, semi-dense and open). A secondary area is covered by small shrubs where the dominant tree species is not present. The cacti area and the old terraces with open vegetation were not identified with the VI. Agriculture is present in the area. Finally, 4) contrary to the dry season of 2008 and 2009 years, a higher VI was obtained during the dry season of 2010. The VI increased up to three times their average value, showing a clear spectral signal change, which coincided with the ENSO event of that period.

El Niño and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO): The largest signal in interannual climate variation

El Niño and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal in the interannual variation of ocean-atmosphere system. It is mainly a tropical event but its impact is global. ENSO has been drawing great scientific attention in many international research programs. There has been an observational system for the tropical ocean, and scientists have known the climatologies of the upper ocean, developed some theories about the ENSO cycle, and established coupled ocean-atmosphere models to give encouraging predictions of ENSO for a 1-year lead. However, questions remain about the physical mechanisms for the ENSO cycle and its irregularity, ENSO-monsoon interactions, long-term variation of ENSO, and increasing the predictive skill of ENSO and its related climate variations.

El Niño Southern Oscillation and Ross River Virus Outbreaks in Australia

Various authors have suggested a general predictive value of climatic indices of El Nino/Southem Oscillation events as indicators of outbreaks of arbovirus disease, particularly Ross River virus in Australia. By analyzing over 100 years of historical outbreak data on Ross River virus disease, our data indicate that, although high Southern Oscillation Index and La Nina conditions are potentially important predictors for the Murray Darling River region, this is not the case for the other four ecological zones in Australia. Our study, therefore, cautions against overgeneralization and suggests that, since climate and weather exert different influences and have different biological implications for the multiplicity of vectors involved, it is logical that predictors should be heterogeneous.

Southern Hemisphere Summer Mesopause Responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

In the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar region, satellite observations reveal a significant upper-mesosphere cooling and a lower-thermosphere warming during warm ENSO events in December. An opposite pattern is observed in the tropical mesopause region. The observed upper-mesosphere cooling agrees with a climate model simulation. Analysis of the simulation suggests that enhanced planetary wave (PW) dissipation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high-latitude stratosphere during El Nino strengthens the Brewer-Dobson circulation and cools the equatorial stratosphere. This increases the magnitude of the SH stratosphere meridional temperature gradient and thus causes the anomalous stratospheric easterly zonal wind and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. The resulting perturbation to gravity wave (GW) filtering causes anomalous SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and polar upwelling and cooling. In addition, constructive inference of ENSO and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) could lead to stronger stratospheric easterly zonal wind anomalies at the SH high latitudes in November and December and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO events in the easterly QBO phase (defined by the equatorial zonal wind at similar to 25 hPa). This would in turn cause much more SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and much colder polar temperatures, and hence it would induce an early onset time of SH summer polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). The opposite mechanism occurs during cold ENSO events in the westerly QBO phase. This implies that ENSO together with QBO could significantly modulate the breakdown time of SH stratospheric polar vortex and the onset time of SH PMC.

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 4. The effects of burning on H.contortus and Aristida spp. populations

This paper reports an experiment undertaken to examine the impact of burning in spring together with reduced grazing pressure on the dynamics of H. contortus and Aristida spp. In H. contortus pasture in south-eastern Queensland. The overall results indicate that spring burning in combination with reduced grazing pressure had no marked effect on the density of either grass species. This was attributed to 2 factors. Firstly, extreme drought conditions restricted any increase in H. contortus seedling establishment despite the presence of an adequate soil seed bank prior to summer; and secondly, some differences occurred in the response to fire of the diverse taxonomic groupings in the species of Aristida spp. present at the study site. This study concluded that it is necessary to identify appropriate taxonomic units within the Aristida genus and that, where appropriate, burning in spring to manage pasture composition should be conducted under favorable rainfall conditions using seasonal forecasting indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index

A note on new indices for the equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation

It is now well known that there is a strong association of the extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with the El Nio and southern oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), later being an east-west oscillation in convection anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean. So far, the index used for EQUINOO is EQWIN, which is based on the surface zonal wind over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Since the most important attribute of EQUINOO is the oscillation in convection/precipitation, we believe that the indices based on convection or precipitation would be more appropriate. Continuous and reliable data on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and satellite derived precipitation are now available from 1979 onwards. Hence, in this paper, we introduce new indices for EQUINOO, based on the difference in the anomaly of OLR/precipitation between eastern and western parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean. We show that the strong association of extremes of the Indian summer monsoon with ENSO and EQUINOO is also seen when the new indices are used to represent EQUINOO.

Climatic effects on flood frequency: an example from southern Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): After 1960, the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, an ephemeral stream normally dominated by summer floods, experienced an apparent increased frequency of flooding coincident with an increased percentage of annual floods occurring in fall and winter. This shift reflects large-scale and low-frequency changes in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in part associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. ... Questions are raised about the validity of standard methods of flood-frequency analysis to estimate regulatory and designed floods.

Potential role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange as found in water vapor in general circulation model experiments

The tropical tropopause is considered to be the main region of upward transport of tropospheric air carrying water vapor and other tracers to the tropical stratosphere. The lower tropical stratosphere is also the region where the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the zonal wind is observed. The QBO is positioned in the region where the upward transport of tropospheric tracers to the overworld takes place. Hence the QBO can in principle modulate these transports by its secondary meridional circulation. This modulation is investigated in this study by an analysis of general circulation model (GCM) experiments with an assimilated QBO. The experiments show, first, that the temperature signal of the QBO modifies the specific humidity in the air transported upward and, second, that the secondary meridional circulation modulates the velocity of the upward transport. Thus during the eastward phase of the QBO the upward moving air is moister and the upward velocity is less than during the westward phase of the QBO. It was further found that the QBO period is too short to allow an equilibration of the moisture in the QBO region. This causes a QBO signal of the moisture which is considerably smaller than what could be obtained in the limiting case of indefinitely long QBO phases. This also allows a high sensitivity of the mean moisture over a QBO cycle to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena or major tropical volcanic eruptions. The interplay of sporadic volcanic eruptions, ENSO, and QBO can produce low-frequency variability in the water vapor content of the tropical stratosphere, which renders the isolation of the QBO signal in observational data of water vapor in the equatorial lower stratosphere difficult.

High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation

The interannual variability of the stratospheric winter polar vortex is correlated with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds. This dynamical coupling between high and low latitudes, often referred to as the Holton–Tan effect, has been the subject of numerous observational and modelling studies, yet important questions regarding its mechanism remain unanswered. In particular it remains unclear which vertical levels of the QBO exert the strongest influence on the winter polar vortex, and how QBO–vortex coupling interacts with the effects of other sources of atmospheric interannual variability such as the 11-year solar cycle or the El Nino Southern Oscillation. As stratosphere-resolving general circulation models begin to resolve the QBO and represent its teleconnections with other parts of the climate system, it seems timely to summarize what is currently known about the QBO’s high-latitude influence. In this review article, we offer a synthesis of the modelling and observational analyses of QBO–vortex coupling that have appeared in the literature, and update the observational record.