European Neighbourhood Policy Package - Conclusions for the Eastern Partners. OSW Commentary No. 78, 2012-05-25

In 2011 the European Union began a process aimed at reforming its policy on the Eastern and Southern Neighbourhood. The change in circumstances in neighbouring countries following the Arab Spring, along with the lack of significant progress regarding Eastern Europe’s integration with the EU, formed the main driving force behind this process. The prime objective of the changes to the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was the need to introduce new incentives for partner countries to modernise and integrate more closely with the EU Another aim was to increase the flexibility of EU instruments (by adapting them to the specific context of each partner state). One year later, on 15 May 2012, the European Commission and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy published the European Neighbourhood Policy Package which reported on the progress made in the implementation of the ENP over the preceding year and set out the aims and Action Plans for 20131. An analysis of the outcomes of changes made to the EU policy towards Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus suggests that the aim of the revision was aimed more at addressing the changing political landscape in the region rather than at the implementation of a substantial reform of the neighbourhood policy. The ENP is largely based on bureaucratic procedures (the negotiation of bilateral agreements, the implementation of support programmes). These have only a limited capacity to bring about lasting change in the region, as has been exemplified by the deterioration of democratic standards in a number of countries; this was highlighted in EU’s own reports. This problem is particularly clear in the case of Ukraine; until recently it was seen as the leader of European integration but is now raising much concern due to a deterioration in the state of democracy there. EU instruments have a limited influence on the situation in Eastern Partnership countries and the region’s significance on the EU’s agenda is falling (the priority is now given to counteracting the economic crisis, and prominence in the neighbourhood policy has been given to the Southern Mediterranean). In response to this EU policy on Eastern Europe will focus to a larger extent on technical and sectoral cooperation.

Nagorno-Karabakh and the arc of crises on Europe's borders. EPC Policy Brief, 3 February 2016

For more than two decades, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a stalemate over the Nagorno-Karabakh. The protracted conflict remains the biggest impediment to security, stability and prosperity in the South Caucasus. The EU has put itself on the sidelines of the conflict resolution process, allowing the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group (MG), of which Russia, France and the US are co-chairs, to take centre stage. In this Policy Brief, Amanda Paul and Dennis Sammut argue that the EU should play a more active role in the conflict resolution process, taking the lead with innovative initiatives and using its soft power skills and experience. A recent review of the European Neighbourhood Policy recognises that protracted conflicts continue to hamper development in the region. This new approach now needs to be given substance, before the conflict further escalates and becomes another crisis on Europe’s border the already burdened Union cannot cope with.

The EU cannot remain a passive observer of the Karabakh conflict. EPC Commentary, 7 April 2016

When Federica Mogherini visited the South Caucasus in March, she was quoted as saying that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was a top priority for the EU. Facts, however, do not seem to match the words of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. As violent clashes in the conflict zone unfolded over the past week, the EU was a passive observer, with few visible signs of engagement apart from a cursory phone call urging Armenia and Azerbaijan to show restraint. The escalation has shown how quickly and dangerously the situation can develop, and the unassailable nature of the Line of Contact (LoC). If the diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict show no progress, a repetition is very probable. Furthermore, it is likely the next incident will be more devastating in human and material costs than this recent one, and may not be contained so quickly. The EU needs to be part of the renewed diplomatic effort.

Desert dust deposition on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia in 2009-2012 as recorded in snow and shallow ice core: high-resolution "provenancing", transport patterns, physical properties and soluble ionic composition

A record of dust deposition events between 2009 and 2012 on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow ice core is presented for the first time for this region. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (cf. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in north-eastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric south-westerly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level and, although these events were less frequent, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centered over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or south-easterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterise dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 μm and 4.16 μm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0–2.8 μm with an average of 2.6 μm and there was no significant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

Composition of sedimentary rocks from the Mountainous Crimea and the Northwestern Caucasus

Detailed data obtained on chemistry of sedimentary rocks from the Mountainous Crimea and the Northwestern Caucasus that were dated at the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary and formed during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 make it possible to calculate dissolved oxygen concentration in bottom waters of the sedimentation basin. Enrichment factors of trace elements in black shales are revised and an explanation is suggested for genesis of the rocks with regard for unusual climatic changes.

Main components and isotopic composition of gases from mineral waters of the Taman Peninsula and Caucasus

Helium isotope composition as an indicator of the mantle-derived component was studied in gases from mineral springs, stratal waters, and mud volcanoes developed west of the Teberda River valley (10 objects) and two springs in the central segment of the Greater Caucasus orogen between the active El'brus and Kazbek volcanoes. In the western segment of the orogen ratios of 3He/4He = R_corr vary from 46x10**-8 to 114x10**-8 (from 0.33 to 0.81 R_atm, where R_atm = 1.4x10**-6 is the atmospheric ratio). They are substantially lower relative to ratios in the vicinity of El'brus and Kazbek and close to those in samples from the central segment (from 70x10**-8 to 134x10**-8 (from 0.50 to 0.96 R_atm), as well as to ratios previously recorded in the Caucasian Mineral Waters (CMW) area. Moreover, concentration of 3He in them is notably higher than its crustal radiogenic level characteristic of mud volcanoes in the Taman Peninsula, where 3He/4He varies from 1.4x10**-8 to 2.8x10**-8 (from 0.01 to 0.02 R_atm). Nitrogen-methane gas from northern piedmonts of the western Caucasus also contains nonatmogenic components including radiogenic 40Ar (40Ar/36Ar = 900), excessive nitrogen (~87% of total N2 concentration in sample) and mantle He. These data specify distribution of mantle derivates along the orogen strike and age of intrusive magmatic activity in its different segments.

Lavas from the Elbrus volcano, Greater Caucasus

Comprehensive geochronological and isotope-geochemical studies showed that the Late Quaternary Elbrus Volcano (Greater Caucasus) experienced long (approximately 200 ka) discrete evolution with protracted periods of igneous quiescence (approximately 50 ka) between large-scale eruptions. Volcanic activity of Elbrus is subdivided into three phases: Middle Neopleistocene (225-170 ka), Late Neopleistocene (110-70 ka), and Late Neopleistocene - Holocene (earlier than 35 ka). Petrogeochemical and isotope (Sr-Nd-Pb) signatures of Elbrus lavas point to their mantle-crustal origin. It was shown that hybrid parental magmas of the volcano formed due to mixing and/or contamination of deep-seated mantle melts by Paleozoic upper crustal material of the Greater Caucasus. Mantle reservoir that participated in genesis of Elbrus lavas as well as most other Neogene-Quaternary magmatic rocks of Caucasus was represented by the lower mantle "Caucasus" source. Primary melts generated by this source in composition corresponded to K-Na subalkali basalts with the following isotopic characteristics: 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7041+/-0.0001, e-Nd = +4.1+/-0.2, 147Sm/144Nd = 0.105-0.114, 206Pb/204Pb = 18.72, 207Pb/204Pb = 15.62, and 208Pb/204Pb = 38.78. Temporal evolution of isotope characteristics for lavas of the Elbrus Volcano is well described by a Sr-Nd mixing hyperbole between "Caucasus" source and estimated average composition of the Paleozoic upper crust of the Greater Caucasus. It was shown that, with time, proportions of mantle material in parental magmas of Elbrus gently increased: from ~60% at the Middle-Neopleistocene phase of activity to ~80% at the Late Neopleistocene - Holocene phase, which indicates an increase of activity of a deep-seated source at decreasing input of crustal melts or contamination with time. Unraveled evolution of the volcano with discrete eruption events, lacking signs of cessation of the Late Neopleistocene - Holocene phase, increasing contribution of the deep-seated mantle source in genesis of Elbrus lavas with time as deduced from isotope-geochemical data, as well as numerous geophysical and geological evidence indicate that Elbrus is a potentially active volcano and its eruptions may be resumed. Possible scenarios were proposed for evolution of the volcano, if its eruptive activity continued.

Principal petrographic characteristics and K-Ar isotope-geochronological data on samples from the Keli Volcanic Highland, Greater Caucasus

The paper reports newly obtained stratigraphic, petrographic, and isotope geochronology data on modern moderately acid lavas from the Keli Highland of the Greater Caucasus and presents a geological map of the territory, in which 35 volcanoes active in Late Quaternary time were documented by the authors. Total duration of volcanic activity at the highland was estimated at 250 ka. Volcanic activity was discrete and occurred in three phases: Middle Neopleistocene (245-170 ka), Late Neopleistocene (135-70 ka), and Late Neopleistocene-Holocene (<30 ka). Newly obtained lines of evidence indicate that certain volcanoes erupted in the latest Neopleistocene-Holocene. The first phase of volcanic activity was connected mainly with lava volcanoes, and eruptions during the later phases of volcanic activity in this part of the Greater Caucasus produced mainly lavas. The most significant eruptions are demonstrated to occur in the territory during the second phase. The major evolutionary trends of volcanic processes during the final phase in the Keli Highland are determined. It was also determined that overwhelming majority of volcanoes that were active less than 30 ka BP are spatially restricted to long-liven local magmatic zones, which were active during either all three or only the final two phases of activity. These parts of the territory are, perhaps, the most hazardous in terms of volcanic activity.