Temporal variation in reproductive phenology of Patella spp.: past and present.

World Congress of Malacology, Universidade dos Açores, Ponta Delgada, 21-28 de julho.

Glasses' makeup: the simple and the combined effect of color and shape on perceived volume and beverage intake

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes arise with a frequency that depends on the extent to which past data is discounted. A central role is played by changes over time in agents’ estimates of risk.

Simple steps to a healthy heart

The number of deaths from coronary heart disease in Northern Ireland has dropped significantly, according to recent figures. However, the Public Health Agency is urging everyone to take steps to protect their heart and reduce their chances of developing the disease during National Heart Month (February).Despite the number of deaths dropping significantly in recent years, coronary heart disease is still the number one killer across the country. Over 2,200 people died in Northern Ireland from coronary heart disease in 2010 compared to just over 2,300 people in 2009 - an overall reduction of 100 province-wide. The latest figure reveals the positive downward trend is continuing - in 2008, there were 2,410 deaths, 2,493 in 2007 and 2,554 in 2006, while in 1979 there were nearly 5,000 deaths. Throughout National Heart Month in February, the PHA is calling for people to follow a number of steps in a bid to reduce their chances of developing the disease.Smoking is a major risk factor and, the more cigarettes you smoke, the higher the risk, according to Dr Christine McMaster, Consultant in Public Health Medicine, with responsibility for cardiovascular disease in the PHA."The reduction in smoking over the past number of years through public education, stop smoking programmes and smoke free legislation has had a major impact on reducing deaths from heart disease. However, 24% of the population in Northern Ireland still smoke, putting them at risk of developing the disease."People who suffer from high blood pressure also run an increased risk of developing coronary heart disease. High blood pressure is a silent, but treatable condition. In order to minimise the risk, I would urge everyone over the age of 45 to have their blood pressure measured every five years by their GP," said Dr McMaster.Simple lifestyle changes will also reduce the risk of heart disease, including eating at least five servings of fruit and vegetables a day, avoiding saturated fats, limiting alcohol intake and taking at least 30 minutes of exercise a day, five days a week.Dr McMaster described the reduction in deaths from coronary heart disease over the past few years as "a big success story". "It shows that people can take very positive steps to reduce their risk of heart disease by getting their blood pressure checked and adopting a healthier lifestyle; in particular by not smoking," he added. "The message is clear during National Heart Month - you only have one heart and you can take steps to keep it healthy."

Computational models for and from biology : simple gene assembly and reaction systems

The advancement of science and technology makes it clear that no single perspective is any longer sufficient to describe the true nature of any phenomenon. That is why the interdisciplinary research is gaining more attention overtime. An excellent example of this type of research is natural computing which stands on the borderline between biology and computer science. The contribution of research done in natural computing is twofold: on one hand, it sheds light into how nature works and how it processes information and, on the other hand, it provides some guidelines on how to design bio-inspired technologies. The first direction in this thesis focuses on a nature-inspired process called gene assembly in ciliates. The second one studies reaction systems, as a modeling framework with its rationale built upon the biochemical interactions happening within a cell. The process of gene assembly in ciliates has attracted a lot of attention as a research topic in the past 15 years. Two main modelling frameworks have been initially proposed in the end of 1990s to capture ciliates’ gene assembly process, namely the intermolecular model and the intramolecular model. They were followed by other model proposals such as templatebased assembly and DNA rearrangement pathways recombination models. In this thesis we are interested in a variation of the intramolecular model called simple gene assembly model, which focuses on the simplest possible folds in the assembly process. We propose a new framework called directed overlap-inclusion (DOI) graphs to overcome the limitations that previously introduced models faced in capturing all the combinatorial details of the simple gene assembly process. We investigate a number of combinatorial properties of these graphs, including a necessary property in terms of forbidden induced subgraphs. We also introduce DOI graph-based rewriting rules that capture all the operations of the simple gene assembly model and prove that they are equivalent to the string-based formalization of the model. Reaction systems (RS) is another nature-inspired modeling framework that is studied in this thesis. Reaction systems’ rationale is based upon two main regulation mechanisms, facilitation and inhibition, which control the interactions between biochemical reactions. Reaction systems is a complementary modeling framework to traditional quantitative frameworks, focusing on explicit cause-effect relationships between reactions. The explicit formulation of facilitation and inhibition mechanisms behind reactions, as well as the focus on interactions between reactions (rather than dynamics of concentrations) makes their applicability potentially wide and useful beyond biological case studies. In this thesis, we construct a reaction system model corresponding to the heat shock response mechanism based on a novel concept of dominance graph that captures the competition on resources in the ODE model. We also introduce for RS various concepts inspired by biology, e.g., mass conservation, steady state, periodicity, etc., to do model checking of the reaction systems based models. We prove that the complexity of the decision problems related to these properties varies from P to NP- and coNP-complete to PSPACE-complete. We further focus on the mass conservation relation in an RS and introduce the conservation dependency graph to capture the relation between the species and also propose an algorithm to list the conserved sets of a given reaction system.

Classifying monetary economics: fields and methods from past to future

We propose a simple, yet sufficiently encompassing, classification scheme of monetary economics. It comprises three fundamental fields and six recent areas that expand within and across these fields. The elements of our scheme are not found together and in their mutual relationships in earlier studies of the relevant literature; neither does this attempt aim to produce a relatively complete systematization. Our intention in taking stock is not finality or exhaustiveness. We rather suggest a viewpoint and a possible ordering of the accumulating knowledge. Our purpose is to promote discussion on the evolving nature and internal consistency of monetary economics at large.

Estimating the volume of tephra deposits: a new simple strategy

Volume determination of tephra deposits is necessary for the assessment of the dynamics and hazards of explosive volcanoes. Several methods have been proposed during the past 40 years that include the analysis of crystal concentration of large pumices, integrations of various thinning relationships, and the inversion of field observations using analytical and computational models. Regardless of their strong dependence on tephra-deposit exposure and distribution of isomass/isopach contours, empirical integrations of deposit thinning trends still represent the most widely adopted strategy due to their practical and fast application. The most recent methods involve the best fitting of thinning data using various exponential seg- ments or a power-law curve on semilog plots of thickness (or mass/area) versus square root of isopach area. The exponential method is mainly sensitive to the number and the choice of straight segments, whereas the power-law method can better reproduce the natural thinning of tephra deposits but is strongly sensitive to the proximal or distal extreme of integration. We analyze a large data set of tephra deposits and propose a new empirical method for the deter- mination of tephra-deposit volumes that is based on the integration of the Weibull function. The new method shows a better agreement with observed data, reconciling the debate on the use of the exponential versus power-law method. In fact, the Weibull best fitting only depends on three free parameters, can well reproduce the gradual thinning of tephra deposits, and does not depend on the choice of arbitrary segments or of arbitrary extremes of integration.

Emission: a simple new technique to correct rainfall estimates from attenuation due to both the radome and heavy rainfall

We present a new technique for correcting errors in radar estimates of rainfall due to attenuation which is based on the fact that any attenuating target will itself emit, and that this emission can be detected by the increased noise level in the radar receiver. The technique is being installed on the UK operational network, and for the first time, allows radome attenuation to be monitored using the increased noise at the higher beam elevations. This attenuation has a large azimuthal dependence but for an old radome can be up to 4 dB for rainfall rates of just 2–4 mm/h. This effect has been neglected in the past, but may be responsible for significant errors in rainfall estimates and in radar calibrations using gauges. The extra noise at low radar elevations provides an estimate of the total path integrated attenuation of nearby storms; this total attenuation can then be used as a constraint for gate-by-gate or polarimetric correction algorithms.

Evidence for changes in stratospheric transport and mixing over the past three decades based on multiple data sets and tropical leaky pipe analysis

Variability in the strength of the stratospheric Lagrangian mean meridional or Brewer-Dobson circulation and horizontal mixing into the tropics over the past three decades are examined using observations of stratospheric mean age of air and ozone. We use a simple representation of the stratosphere, the tropical leaky pipe (TLP) model, guided by mean meridional circulation and horizontal mixing changes in several reanalyses data sets and chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations, to help elucidate reasons for the observed changes in stratospheric mean age and ozone. We find that the TLP model is able to accurately simulate multiyear variability in ozone following recent major volcanic eruptions and the early 2000s sea surface temperature changes, as well as the lasting impact on mean age of relatively short-term circulation perturbations. We also find that the best quantitative agreement with the observed mean age and ozone trends over the past three decades is found assuming a small strengthening of the mean circulation in the lower stratosphere, a moderate weakening of the mean circulation in the middle and upper stratosphere, and a moderate increase in the horizontal mixing into the tropics. The mean age trends are strongly sensitive to trends in the horizontal mixing into the tropics, and the uncertainty in the mixing trends causes uncertainty in the mean circulation trends. Comparisons of the mean circulation and mixing changes suggested by the measurements with those from a recent suite of CCM runs reveal significant differences that may have important implications on the accurate simulation of future stratospheric climate.

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5—4.5°C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850), but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarize attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.

Real-time Human Motion Capture with Simple Marker Sets and Monocular Video

In this paper we present a hybrid method to track human motions in real-time. With simplified marker sets and monocular video input, the strength of both marker-based and marker-free motion capturing are utilized: A cumbersome marker calibration is avoided while the robustness of the marker-free tracking is enhanced by referencing the tracked marker positions. An improved inverse kinematics solver is employed for real-time pose estimation. A computer-visionbased approach is applied to refine the pose estimation and reduce the ambiguity of the inverse kinematics solutions. We use this hybrid method to capture typical table tennis upper body movements in a real-time virtual reality application.

An Introduction to Conservation Easements in the United States: A Simple Concept and a Complicated Mosaic of Law

The idea of a conservation easement – restrictions on the development and use of land designed to protect the land’s conservation or historic values – can be relatively easily understood. More significant and more challenging is the complex body of state and federal laws that shapes the creation, funding, tax treatment, enforcement, modification, and termination of conservation easements. The explosion in the number of conservation easements over the past four decades has made them one of the most popular land protection mechanisms in the United States. The National Conservation Easement Database estimates that the total number of acres encumbered by conservation easements exceeds 40 million.Because conservation easements are both novel and ubiquitous, understanding how they actual work is essential for practicing lawyers, policymakers, land trust professionals, and students of conservation. This article provides a “quick tour” through some of the most important aspects of the developing mosaic of conservation easement law. It gives the reader a sense of the complex inter-jurisdictional dynamics that shape conservation transactions and disputes about conservation easements. Professors of property law, environmental law, tax law, and environmental studies who wish to cover conservation easements in the context of a more general course can use the article to provide their students with a broad but comprehensive overview of the relevant legal and policy issues.

French television talk: what tenses for past time?

On the basis of a transcribed French television corpus made of two news bulletins, two chat shows and one literary programme recorded in February 2003, this paper explores the claim that passé simple (PS) may still be used in prepared oral discourse (Pfister 1974). The corpus does not provide support for that use on television, but it seems to suggest a shift from temporal to aspectual features in French television talk: a perfective presentation prevails on a past presentation. This trend would need to be confirmed by a larger television corpus, tested in other types of oral discourse and tested on written corpora.

Past historic in obituaries: chronicle of a death foretold

The French Past Historic (passé simple: PS), as a perfective past, is ideally suited to the obituary genre narrating the highlights of a life in chronological order. However, 20th century linguists have claimed that this tense has become obsolete. It is, therefore, worth exploring the presence of PS in obituaries. This paper explores three types of variation (diachronic, diastratic and diatopic) on a corpus of diachronic 20th century sources, and contemporary Parisian and regional newspapers. The study has noticed a diachronic diminution of the quantitative use of PS and a lesser decline of its functions as a foregrounded tense, and greater vitality in Western and Southern papers. However the geographical factor was less influential than the distribution. The readership may prove decisive as we have seen the most productive uses in the most conservative papers, the most formulaic in the left-wing paper, and the least developed in the populist paper.

Cenozoic global ice volume and temperature simulations over the past 40 million years

Variations in global ice volume and temperature over the Cenozoic era have been investigated with a set of one-dimensional (1-D) ice-sheet models. Simulations include three ice sheets representing glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. in Eurasia, North America and Greenland, and two separate ice sheets for Antarctic glaciation. The continental mean Northern Hemisphere surface-air temperature has been derived through an inverse procedure from observed benthic d18O records. These data have yielded a mutually consistent and continuous record of temperature, global ice volume and benthic d18O over the past 35 Ma. The simple 1-D model shows good agreement with a comprehensive 3-D ice-sheet model for the past 3 Ma. On average, differences are only 1.0°C for temperature and 6.2 m for sea level. Most notably, over the 35 Ma period, the reconstructed ice volume-temperature sensitivity shows a transition from a climate controlled by Southern Hemisphere ice sheets to one controlled by Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Although the transient behaviour is important, equilibrium experiments show that the relationship between temperature and sea level is linear and symmetric, providing limited evidence for hysteresis. Furthermore, the results show a good comparison with other simulations of Antarctic ice volume and observed sea level.