Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Phenotypic and genetic analyses of a short measure of psychosis-proneness in a large-scale Australian twin study

Previous genetic analyses of psychosis proneness have been limited by their small sample size. For the purposes of large-scale screening, a 12-item questionnaire was developed through a two-stage process of reduction from the full Chapman and Chapman scales. 3685 individuals (including 1438 complete twin pairs) aged 18–25 years and enrolled in the volunteer Australian Twin Registry returned a mail questionnaire which included this psychosis proneness scale and the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire. Despite the brevity of the questionnaire, item and factor analysis identified four unambiguous and essentially uncorrelated scales. There were (1) Perceptual Aberration – Magical Ideation; (2) Hypomania – Impulsivity/Nonconformity; (3) Social Anhedonia and (4) Physical Anhedonia. Model-fitting analyses showed additive genetic and specific environmental factors were sufficient for three of the four scales, with the Social Anhedonia scale requiring also a parameter for genetic dominance. There was no evidence for the previously hypothesised sex differences in the genetic determination of psychosis-proneness. The potential value of multivariate genetic analysis to examine the relationship between these four scales and dimensions of personality is discussed. The growing body of longitudinal evidence on psychosis-proneness suggests the value of incorporating this brief measure into developmental twin studies.

Development of a measure of coping with multiple sclerosis caregiving

Development of a self-report measure of coping specific to multiple sclerosis (MS) caregiving is needed to advance our understanding of the role of coping in adaptation to caring for a person with MS and to contribute to a lack of empirical data on MS caregiving. A total of 213 MS caregivers and their care recipients completed a Coping with MS Caregiving Inventory (CMSCI) and measures of adjustment (psychological distress), appraisal and illness. A subsample (n = 64) also completed the Ways of Coping Checklist (WCC) and additional adjustment measures (depression, caregiving impact. dyadic adjustment, and relationship conflict and reciprocity). Factor analyses revealed 5 factors: Supportive Engagement, Criticism and Coercion, Practical Assistance, Avoidance, and Positive Reframing. Subscales had internal reliabilities comparable to similar scales and were empirically distinct. Preliminary construct validation data are consistent with recent MS caregiving research that links passive avoidant emotion-focused coping with poorer adjustment, and relationship-focused coping caregiving research that links greater reliance on positive relationship-focused coping and less reliance on criticism with better adjustment. Results extend this research by revealing new relations between coping and adaptation to MS caregiving. Convergent validation data suggest that although the inventory differs from the WCC, it does share certain conceptual similarities with this scale.

The development and psychometric properties of a measure of social and adaptive functioning for children and adolescents

Developed, piloted, and examined the psychometric properties of the Child and Adolescent Social and Adaptive Functioning Scale (CASAFS), a self-report measure designed to examine the social functioning of young people in the areas of school performance, peer relationships, family relationships, and home duties/self-care. The findings of confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis support a 4-factor solution consistent with the hypothesized domains. Fit indexes suggested that the 4-correlated factor model represented a satisfactory solution for the data, with the covariation between factors being satisfactorily explained by a single, higher order factor reflecting social and adaptive functioning in general. The internal consistency and 12-month test-retest reliability of the total scale was acceptable. A significant, negative correlation was found between the CASAFS and a measure of depressive symptoms, showing that high levels of social functioning are associated with low levels of depression. Significant differences in CASAFS total and subscale scores were found between clinically depressed adolescents and a matched sample of nonclinical controls. Adolescents who reported elevated but subclinical levels of depression also reported lower levels of social functioning in comparison to nonclinical controls.

Valuing of firm's prior knowledge: A measure of knowledge distance

Knowledge, especially scientific and technological knowledge, grows according to knowledge trajectories and guideposts that make up the prior knowledge of an organization. We argue that these knowledge structures and their specific components lead to successful innovation. A firm's prior knowledge facilitates the absorption of new knowledge, thereby renewing a firm's systematic search, transfer and acquisition of knowledge and capabilities. In particular, the exponential growth in biotechnology is characterized by the convergence of disparate scientific and technological knowledge resources. This paper examines the shift from protein-based to DNA-based diagnostic technologies as an example, to quantify the value of a firm's prior knowledge using relative values of knowledge distance. The distance between core prior knowledge and the rate of transition from one knowledge system to another has been identified as a proxy for the value a firm's prior knowledge. The overall difficulty of transition from one technology paradigm to another is discussed. We argue this transition is possible when the knowledge distance is minimal and the transition process has a correspondingly high value of absorptive capacities. Our findings show knowledge distance is a determinant of the feasibility, continuity and capture of scientific and technological knowledge. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cut-off point for WHOQOL-bref as a measure of quality of life of older adults

OBJECTIVE To propose a cut-off for the World Health Organization Quality of Life-Bref (WHOQOL-bref) as a predictor of quality of life in older adults. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 391 older adults registered in the Northwest Health District in Belo Horizonte, MG, Southeastern Brazil, between October 8, 2010 and May 23, 2011. The older adults’ quality of life was measured using the WHOQOL-bref. The analysis was rationalized by outlining two extreme and simultaneous groups according to perceived quality of life and satisfaction with health (quality of life good/satisfactory – good or very good self-reported quality of life and being satisfied or very satisfied with health – G5; and poor/very poor quality of life – poor or very poor self-reported quality of life and feeling dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with health – G6). A Receiver-Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) was created to assess the diagnostic ability of different cut-off points of the WHOQOL-bref. RESULTS ROC curve analysis indicated a critical value 60 as the optimal cut-off point for assessing perceived quality of life and satisfaction with health. The area under the curve was 0.758, with a sensitivity of 76.8% and specificity of 63.8% for a cut-off of ≥ 60 for overall quality of life (G5) and sensitivity 95.0% and specificity of 54.4% for a cut-off of < 60 for overall quality of life (G6). CONCLUSIONS Diagnostic interpretation of the ROC curve revealed that cut-off < 60 for overall quality of life obtained excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value for tracking older adults with probable worse quality of life and dissatisfied with health.

A reliability-based measure of robustness for concrete structures subjected to corrosion

This work is a contribution to the definition and assessment of structural robustness. Special emphasis is given to reliability of reinforced concrete structures under corrosion of longitudinal reinforcement. On this communication several authors’ proposals in order to define and measure structural robustness are analyzed and discussed. The probabilistic based robustness index is defined, considering the reliability index decreasing for all possible damage levels. Damage is considered as the corrosion level of the longitudinal reinforcement in terms of rebar weight loss. Damage produces changes in both cross sectional area of rebar and bond strength. The proposed methodology is illustrated by means of an application example. In order to consider the impact of reinforcement corrosion on failure probability growth, an advanced methodology based on the strong discontinuities approach and an isotropic continuum damage model for concrete is adopted. The methodology consist on a two-step analysis: on the first step an analysis of the cross section is performed in order to capture phenomena such as expansion of the reinforcement due to the corrosion products accumulation and damage and cracking in the reinforcement surrounding concrete; on the second step a 2D deteriorated structural model is built with the results obtained on the first step of the analysis. The referred methodology combined with a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to compute the failure probability and the reliability index of the structure for different corrosion levels. Finally, structural robustness is assessed using the proposed probabilistic index.

Developing and validating a measure of the strength of the HRM system: Operationalizing the construct and relationships among its dimensions

The four studies in this article introduce a questionnaire to measure Strength of the HRM System (HRMSQ), a multidimensional construct, theoretically developed by Bowen and Ostroff (2004). Strength of the HRM System is a set of process characteristics that lead to effectiveness in conveying signals to employees that allow them to create a shared meaning of desired and appropriate work behaviours. Nine characteristics are suggested, grouped in three features: Distinctiveness, Consistency and Consensus. Study 1 developed and tested a questionnaire in a sample of workers from five different sectors. Study 2 cross-validated the measure in a sample of civil servants in a municipality. These two studies used performance appraisal as the reference HRM practice and led to a short version of the HRMSQ. Study 3 and Study 4 extend the HRMSQ to several common HRM practices. The HRMSQ is tested in two samples, of call center and several private and public organizations‟ workers (study 3). In study 4 the questionnaire is refined and tested with a sample from a hotel chain and finally cross-validated with two other samples, in the insurance and batteries sectors, leading to a longer version of the HRMSQ. Content analysis of several interviews with human resource managers and the Rasch model (1960, 1961, 1980), were used to define and select the indicators of the questionnaire. Convergent, discriminant and predictive validity of the measure are tested. The results of the four studies highlight the complexity of the relationships between the proposed characteristics and support the validity of a parsimonious measure of Strength of the HRM System.

Validação e aplicação clínica de uma escala de cognição social na esquizofrenia = Validation and clinical use of a measure of social cognition in schizophrenia

RESUMO: A cognição social encontra-se frequentemente alterada na esquizofrenia. Esta alteração relaciona-se com a diminuição do funcionamento social,caracterizando-se quer por défices quer por vieses cognitivos sociais. No entanto, existem poucos instrumentos fiáveis e válidos para avaliar a cognição social na esquizofrenia, nomeadamente capazes de medir os vieses cognitivos sociais e a cognição social auto-relevante. Adicionalmente, as bases biológicas da disfunção social não estão totalmente esclarecidas. Evidências recentes sugerem que o peptídeo oxitocina (OXT) influencia o funcionamento social, e que esta relação poderá ser mediada pela cognição social. Este Trabalho de Projecto descreve a contribuição do autor para o desenvolvimento e avaliação psicométrica inicial de um novo instrumento de avaliação da cognição social, e a utilidade desta escala na investigação das associações entre a OXT e a capacidade e vieses cognitivos sociais. A Waiting Room Task (WRT), uma escala constituída por 26 vídeos sequenciais que simulam a experiência de observar outra pessoa numa sala de espera, foi administrada num estudo transversal com 61 doentes com esquizofrenia e 20 controlos saudáveis. Observou-se uma menor capacidade cognitiva social e um aumento dos vieses cognitivos sociais nos doentes com esquizofrenia, comparativamente aos controlos. Nos controlos e doentes com delírios, o desempenho na WRT correlacionou-se significativamente com os níveis de OXT. Esta correlação não se observou nos doentes sem delírios, sugerindo que o papel da OXT na cognição social poderá encontrar-se atenuado neste grupo. Estes achados fornecem suporte inicial para a adequação da WRT como instrumento de avaliação da cognição social na esquizofrenia, podendo ainda ser útil na investigação da sua base biológica. ------------ ABSTRACT: Social cognition is often impaired in schizophrenia. This impairment is related to poor social functioning and is characterized by both social cognitive deficits and biases. However, there are few reliable and valid measures of social cognition in schizophrenia, particularly measures of social cognitive bias and of self-relevant social cognition. Also, the biological bases of social dysfunction are not well understood. Emerging evidence suggests that the peptide oxytocin (OXT) influences social functioning, and that this relationship may be mediated by social cognition. This Research Project describes the author’s contribution to the development and initial psychometric testing of a new measure of social cognition, and the utility of this instrument to examine associations between OXT and social cognitive capacity and bias. The Waiting Room Task WRT), a video-based test comprising 26 sequential videos simulating the experience of facing another person in a waiting room, was administered in a cross-sectional study involving 61 patients with schizophrenia and 20 healthy controls. Social cognitive capacity was lower and social cognitive bias was increased in patients with schizophrenia compared with controls. Among controls and patients with delusions, performance on the WRT was significantly correlated with OXT level. This correlation was not found in patients without delusions suggesting that OXT’s role in social cognition may be blunted in this group. These findings provide initial support for the adequacy of the WRT as a measure for assessing social cognition in schizophrenia that may also be useful in understanding its biological underpinnings.

The late adopter scale: A measure of late adopters of technological innovations

Diffusion of Innovation is a topic of interest for researchers and practitioners. Although substantial research is conducted on user categories, researchers often focus on the first half of the curve, ignoring the late adopters. We conduct two studies to measure the attributes of late adopters. In our first study of mobile phone users, we develop the Late-Adopter Scale. We then test it on a sample of laptop users. This scale is multi-dimensional, presents nomological and discriminant validity and has three dimensions: 1) rate of adoption, 2) resistance to innovation, and 3) skepticism. Findings reveal that all three Late Adopter Scale dimensions are significantly associated with low price preference. Moreover, in both samples skepticism is associated with high preference for simple products, lower leading edge status, and lower product involvement. Discussion focuses on implications of this new scale to theory and practice of new product development and diffusion of innovation.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.