Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe.

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agroclimatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes

Annual report on carcinogens.

Pursuant to Section 301(b) (4) of the Public Health Service act as amended by Section 262, PL 95-622.

Capturing expert knowledge for threatened species assessments: a case study using NatureServe conservation status ranks

Assessments for assigning the conservation status of threatened species that are based purely on subjective judgements become problematic because assessments can be influenced by hidden assumptions, personal biases and perceptions of risks, making the assessment process difficult to repeat. This can result in inconsistent assessments and misclassifications, which can lead to a lack of confidence in species assessments. It is almost impossible to Understand an expert's logic or visualise the underlying reasoning behind the many hidden assumptions used throughout the assessment process. In this paper, we formalise the decision making process of experts, by capturing their logical ordering of information, their assumptions and reasoning, and transferring them into a set of decisions rules. We illustrate this through the process used to evaluate the conservation status of species under the NatureServe system (Master, 1991). NatureServe status assessments have been used for over two decades to set conservation priorities for threatened species throughout North America. We develop a conditional point-scoring method, to reflect the current subjective process. In two test comparisons, 77% of species' assessments using the explicit NatureServe method matched the qualitative assessments done subjectively by NatureServe staff. Of those that differed, no rank varied by more than one rank level under the two methods. In general, the explicit NatureServe method tended to be more precautionary than the subjective assessments. The rank differences that emerged from the comparisons may be due, at least in part, to the flexibility of the qualitative system, which allows different factors to be weighted on a species-by-species basis according to expert judgement. The method outlined in this study is the first documented attempt to explicitly define a transparent process for weighting and combining factors under the NatureServe system. The process of eliciting expert knowledge identifies how information is combined and highlights any inconsistent logic that may not be obvious in Subjective decisions. The method provides a repeatable, transparent, and explicit benchmark for feedback, further development, and improvement. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

The consistency of extinction risk classification protocols

Systematic protocols that use decision rules or scores arc, seen to improve consistency and transparency in classifying the conservation status of species. When applying these protocols, assessors are typically required to decide on estimates for attributes That are inherently uncertain, Input data and resulting classifications are usually treated as though they arc, exact and hence without operator error We investigated the impact of data interpretation on the consistency of protocols of extinction risk classifications and diagnosed causes of discrepancies when they occurred. We tested three widely used systematic classification protocols employed by the World Conservation Union, NatureServe, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. We provided 18 assessors with identical information for 13 different species to infer estimates for each of the required parameters for the three protocols. The threat classification of several of the species varied from low risk to high risk, depending on who did the assessment. This occurred across the three Protocols investigated. Assessors tended to agree on their placement of species in the highest (50-70%) and lowest risk categories (20-40%), but There was poor agreement on which species should be placed in the intermediate categories, Furthermore, the correspondence between The three classification methods was unpredictable, with large variation among assessors. These results highlight the importance of peer review and consensus among multiple assessors in species classifications and the need to be cautious with assessments carried out 4), a single assessor Greater consistency among assessors requires wide use of training manuals and formal methods for estimating parameters that allow uncertainties to be represented, carried through chains of calculations, and reported transparently.

Relatório de estágio

Este relatório destina-se a descrever as acções desenvolvidas no estágio, do 1º Curso de Mestrado em Enfermagem Comunitária, realizado na Escola Superior de Saúde de Portalegre. A intervenção comunitária, realizou-se na comunidade escolar de Portalegre, tendo tido duas vertentes: Educação sexual na adolescência; Promoção de comportamentos saudáveis nos estilos de vida dos adolescentes. As ações realizadas abordaram a educação sexual na adolescência, com base no diagnóstico de situação e, através da elaboração de um projecto de intervenção, aplicado em metodologia de planeamento em saúde. A intervenção comunitária teve como base a promoção de comportamentos saudáveis nos estilos de vida dos adolescentes, a alunos das escolas de Portalegre do 9º e 12º anos, na área de ciências e tecnologias. Todo este trabalho foi desenvolvido na fase teórica e suportou a nossa intervenção em estágio. Assim, após a conclusão deste diagnóstico, seguiu-se a fase de estabelecimento de prioridades, fixação dos objectivos, selecção de estratégias, preparação da execução e avaliação. Na adolescência, a educação sexual deverá ser orientada para a maturação psicossexual, para os afetos, para a contraceção e planeamento familiar e para a prevenção de doenças. É da responsabilidade dos profissionais de saúde, da escola, mas sobretudo da família, proporcionar um ambiente favorável à aprendizagem e ao diálogo. O realce da educação sexual, deverá ser colocado na igualdade de papéis, na tolerância face ao pluralismo de orientação e de condutas sexuais. Por outro lado, é também na adolescência, que se adquirem hábitos e comportamentos saudáveis. Assim, os profissionais de saúde, conjuntamente com a escola e a família, poderão ter um papel preponderante, capacitando os jovens de competências que lhes permitam optar por comportamentos saudáveis, a nível de alimentação, álcool, uso de drogas, prevenção de infecções sexualmente transmissíveis e cidadania

Asset Management: Identifying and Evaluating our Roadway System

Historically SCDOT ranks in the top 10 each year for highway conditions and cost-effectiveness as rated by the Reason Foundation. With billions of dollars invested and billions to be invested it makes sense to invest the public's tax dollars as wisely as possible. Therefore, assessing what we have or better yet what condition what we have is in can be vital to public safety and setting priorities. The focus of this project is on the maintenance responsibility of Roadway Inspection as outlined in SCDOT Engineering Directive Memorandum #8. This memorandum is a portion of the way SCDOT provides for the safety of the traveling public and keeps South Carolina's most expensive asset in working order.

The public interest of sports at non-profi t sports organizations that are supported by the government

This paper analyses the concept of public interest in sport and the criteria that must be taken into consideration in terms of Government support to clubs and sports associations. The data was collected through semi structured interviews that were applied to nine sports directors with board responsibilities: seven of them from sport clubs and sport associations, and two of them from public administration. The directors pointed out that sport is considered to be of public interest when: it is developed in the concept of “sport for all”, provides health benefi ts and serves as a means of education and social development. Regarding advantages used with public utility status, tax benefi ts and partnerships with the sports system organizations were the most mentioned aspects. Given a better use of fi nancial resources provided by public administration to clubs and associations, sport directors believe that the Government should have a strategy focused on setting priorities and ranking fi nancing criteria for sport. If the government had that strategy, the development of sports results would be much better. The participants also suggest that the Government should conduct an assessment of the social role of sport clubs and associations, according to the public and social interest of sport. In conclusion, sport and physical activity should be considered as public interest activities, provided that: are able to ensure positive effects on health plans and wellness, provide a qualitative and sustainable sport development, improve economic and social development of a population.

The EU’s Response to the Refugee Crisis: Taking Stock and Setting Policy Priorities. CEPS Essay No. 20, 16 December 2015

What have been the most important EU policy and legal responses to the 2015 refugee crisis? Is Europe taking effectively responsibility in compliance with its founding principles? This Essay takes stock of the main results and policy outputs from the EU’s interventions in the refugee crisis. It critically highlights the outstanding policy dilemmas confronting the adopted instruments and puts forwards a set of policy priorities to guide the next phases of the European Agenda on Migration.

Priorities for future intensive care research in the UK: results of a James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership.

This James Lind Alliance (JLA) Priority Setting Partnership aimed to identify and prioritise unanswered questions about adult intensive care that are important to people who have been critically ill, their families, and the health professionals who care for them. Consensus techniques (modified Delphi and Nominal Group) were used to generate suggestions using online and postal surveys. Following verification and iterative editorial review, research topics were constructed from these suggestions. These topics were presented in a second online and postal survey for rating. A Nominal Group of 21 clinicians, patients and family representatives subsequently met to rank the most important research topics and produce a prioritised list. The project was coordinated by a representative Steering Group and independently overseen by the JLA. The initial survey and review of the literature generated over 1,300 suggestions. Preliminary editing and verification permitted us to encapsulate these suggestions within 151 research topics. Iterative review by members of the Steering Group produced 37 topic statements, subsequently rated by participants. Using the mode to determine importance, 19 topics were presented to the group from which a ‘top three’ intensive care research priorities were identified and a further nine topics were prioritised. By applying and adapting the JLA methodology to focus on an area of care rather than to a single disease, we have provided a means to ensure that patients, their families and professionals materially contribute to the prioritisation of intensive care research in the UK.

A method for setting the size of plant conservation target areas

Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.

Putting the magic in magic bullets: top three global priorities for sexually transmitted infection control

Setting practical priorities for sexually transmitted infection (STI) control is a balance between idealism and pragmatism. Infections transmitted through unsafe sex (chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis, HIV, hepatitis B and human papillomavirus (HPV) infections) rank in the top five causes of the global burden of disease.1 Their distribution in populations is driven by a complex mixture of individual behaviours, social and community norms and societal and historical context. Ideally, we would be able to reduce exposure to unsafe sex to its theoretical minimum level of zero and thus eliminate a significant proportion of the current global burden of disease, particularly in resource-poor settings.2 Ideally, we would have ‘magic bullets’ for diagnosing and preventing STI in addition to specific antimicrobial agents for specific infections.3 Arguably, we have ‘bullets’ that work at the individual level; highly accurate diagnostic tests and highly efficacious vaccines, antimicrobial agents and preventive interventions.4 Introducing them into populations to achieve similarly high levels of effectiveness has been more challenging.4 In practice, the ‘magic’ in the magic bullet can be seen as overcoming the barriers to sustainable implementation in partnerships, larger sexual networks and populations (figure 1).4 We have chosen three (pragmatic) priorities for interventions that we believe could be implemented and scaled up to control STI other than HIV/AIDS. We present these starting with the partnership and moving up to the population level.

Beyond belief : Strategic taboos and organizational identity in strategic agenda setting

A comprehensive strategic agenda matters for fundamental strategic change. Our study seeks to explore and theorize how organizational identity beliefs influence the judgment of strategic actors when setting an organization's strategic agenda. We offer the notion of "strategic taboo" as those strategic options initially disqualified and deemed inconsistent with the organizational identity beliefs of strategic actors. Our study is concerned with how strategic actors confront strategic taboos in the process of setting an organization's strategic agenda. Based on a revelatory inductive case study, we find that strategic actors engage in assessing the concordance of the strategic taboos with organizational identity beliefs and, more specifically, that they focus on key identity elements (philosophy; priorities; practices) when doing so. We develop a typology of three reinterpretation practices that are each concerned with a key identity element. While contextualizing assesses the potential concordance of a strategic taboo with an organization's overall philosophy and purpose, instrumentalizing assesses such concordance with respect to what actors deem an organization's priorities to be. Finally, normalizing explores concordance with respect to compatibility and fit with the organization's practices. We suggest that assessing concordance of a strategic taboo with identity elements consists in reinterpreting collective identity beliefs in ways that make them consistent with what organizational actors deem the right course of action. This article discusses the implications for theory and research on strategic agenda setting, strategic change, a practice-based perspective on strategy, and on organizational identity.

A return-on-investment framework to identify conservation priorities in Africa

Environmental conservation activities must continue to become more efficient and effective, especially in Africa where development and population growth pressures continue to escalate. Recently, prioritization of conservation resources has focused on explicitly incorporating the economic costs of conservation along with better defining the outcomes of these expenditures. We demonstrate how new global and continental data that spans social, economic, and ecological sectors creates an opportunity to incorporate return-on-investment (ROI) principles into conservation priority setting for Africa. We suggest that combining conservation priorities that factor in biodiversity value, habitat quality, and conservation management investments across terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal marine environments provides a new lens for setting global conservation priorities. Using this approach we identified seven regions capturing interior and coastal resources that also have high ROI values that support further investment. We illustrate how spatially explicit, yet flexible ROI analysis can help to better address uncertainty, risk, and opportunities for conservation, while making values that guide prioritization more transparent. In one case the results of this prioritization process were used to support new conservation investments. Acknowledging a clear research need to improve cost information, we propose that adopting a flexible ROI framework to set conservation priorities in Africa has multiple potential benefits.