Incerteza espacial da emissão de 'CO IND.2' do solo em dois sistemas de manejo da palhada da cana-de-açúcar

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Incertezas na estimativa da variabilidade espacial da emissão de CO2 do solo e propriedades edáficas em área de cana crua

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Geoestatística, simulação estocástica e sensoriamento remoto na estimativa de produção do café conilon

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Avaliação do impacto do reservatório de Três Irmãos sobre a superfície potenciométrica do aquífero livre na cidade de Pereira Barreto (SP): uma abordagem numérica e geoestatística

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Métodos geoestatísticos na modelagem espacial do diâmetro médio do cristal da goethita

Uma das necessidades da agricultura de precisão é avaliar a qualidade dos mapas dos atributos dos solos. Neste sentido, o presente trabalho objetivou avaliar o desempenho dos métodos geoestatísticos: krigagem ordinária e simulação sequencial gaussiana na predição espacial do diâmetro médio do cristal da goethita com 121 pontos amostrados em uma malha de 1 ha com espaçamentos regulares de 10 em 10 m. Após a análise textural e da concentração dos óxidos de ferro, calcularam-se os valores do diâmetro médio do cristal da goethita os quais foram analisados pela estatística descritiva e geoestatística; em seguida, foram utilizadas a krigagem ordinária e a simulação sequencial gaussiana. Com os resultados avaliou-se qual foi o método mais fiel para reproduzir as estatísticas, a função de densidade de probabilidade acumulada condicional e a estatística epsilon εy da amostra. As estimativas E-Type foram semelhantes à krigagem ordinária devido à minimização da variância. No entanto, a krigagem deixa de apresentar, em locais específicos, o grau de cristalinidade da goethita enquanto o mapa E-Type indicou que a simulação sequencial gaussiana deve ser utilizada ao invés de mapas de krigagem. Os mapas E-type devem ser preferíveis por apresentar melhor desempenho na modelagem.

Modelagem geoestatística das incertezas da distribuição espacial do fósforo disponível no solo, em área de cana-de-açúcar

Phosphorus is one of the limiting nutrients for sugarcane development in Brazilian soils. The spatial variability of this nutrient is great, defined by the properties that control its adsorption and desorption reactions. Spatial estimates to characterize this variability are based on geostatistical interpolation. However, inherent uncertainties in the procedure of these estimates are related to the variability structure of the property under study and the sample configuration of the area. Thus, the assessment of the uncertainty of estimates associated with the spatial distribution of available P (Plabile) is decisive to optimize the use of phosphate fertilizers. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) and ordinary kriging (OK) in the modeling of uncertainty in available P estimates. A sampling grid with 626 points was established in a 200-ha experimental sugarcane field in Tabapuã, São Paulo State. The sGs algorithm generated 200 realizations. The sGs realizations reproduced the statistics and the distribution of the sample data. The G statistic (0.81) indicated good agreement between the values of simulated and observed fractions. The sGs realizations preserved the spatial variability of Plabile without the smoothing effect of the OK map. The accuracy in the reproduction of the variogram of the sample data obtained by the sGs realizations was on average 240 times higher than that obtained by OK. The uncertainty map, obtained by OK, showed less variation in the study area than that obtained by sGs. Thus, the evaluation of uncertainties by sGs was more informative and can be used to define and delimit specific management areas more precisely.

Simulação sequencial de atributos diagnósticos do solo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Simulação sequencial na interpolação dos dados de entrada ou saída do modelo de lixiviação do software Araquá

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Irrigação e Drenagem) - FCA

Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Estrategias de monitorización de CO2 y otros gases en los estudios de análogos naturales

La Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) y la Università degli Studi di Firenze (UniFi), bajo la coordinación técnica de AMPHOS21, participan desde 2009 en el proyecto de investigación “Estrategias de Monitorización de CO2 y otros gases en el estudio de Análogos Naturales”, financiado por la Fundación Ciudad de la Energía (CIUDEN) en el marco del Proyecto Compostilla OXYCFB300 (http://www.compostillaproject.eu), del Programa “European Energy Program for Recovery - EEPR”. El objetivo principal del proyecto fue el desarrollo y puesta a punto de metodologías de monitorización superficiales para su aplicación en el seguimiento y control de los emplazamientos donde se realice el almacenamiento geológico de CO2, analizando técnicas que permitan detectar y cuantificar las posibles fugas de CO2 a la atmósfera. Los trabajos se realizaron tanto en análogos naturales (españoles e italianos) como en la Planta de Desarrollo Tecnológico de Almacenamiento de CO2 de Hontomín. Las técnicas analizadas se centran en la medición de gases y aguas superficiales (de escorrentía y manantiales). En cuanto a la medición de gases se analizó el flujo de CO2 que emana desde el suelo a la atmósfera y la aplicabilidad de trazadores naturales (como el radón) para la detección e identificación de las fugas de CO2. En cuanto al análisis químico de las aguas se analizaron los datos geoquímicos e isotópicos y los gases disueltos en las aguas de los alrededores de la PDT de Hontomín, con objeto de determinar qué parámetros son los más apropiados para la detección de una posible migración del CO2 inyectado, o de la salmuera, a los ambientes superficiales. Las medidas de flujo de CO2 se realizaron con la técnica de la cámara de acúmulo. A pesar de ser una técnica desarrollada y aplicada en diferentes ámbitos científicos se estimó necesario adaptar un protocolo de medida y de análisis de datos a las características específicas de los proyectos de captura y almacenamiento de CO2 (CAC). Donde los flujos de CO2 esperados son bajos y en caso de producirse una fuga habrá que detectar pequeñas variaciones en los valores flujo con un “ruido” en la señal alto, debido a actividad biológica en el suelo. La medida de flujo de CO2 mediante la técnica de la cámara de acúmulo se puede realizar sin limpiar la superficie donde se coloca la cámara o limpiando y esperando al reequilibrio del flujo después de la distorsión al sistema. Sin embargo, los resultados obtenidos después de limpiar y esperar muestran menor dispersión, lo que nos indica que este procedimiento es el mejor para la monitorización de los complejos de almacenamiento geológico de CO2. El protocolo de medida resultante, utilizado para la obtención de la línea base de flujo de CO2 en Hontomín, sigue los siguiente pasos: a) con una espátula se prepara el punto de medición limpiando y retirando el recubrimiento vegetal o la primera capa compacta de suelo, b) se espera un tiempo para la realización de la medida de flujo, facilitando el reequilibrio del flujo del gas tras la alteración provocada en el suelo y c) se realiza la medida de flujo de CO2. Una vez realizada la medición de flujo de CO2, y detectada si existen zonas de anomalías, se debe estimar la cantidad de CO2 que se está escapando a la atmósfera (emanación total), con el objetivo de cuantificar la posible fuga. Existen un amplio rango de metodologías para realizar dicha estimación, siendo necesario entender cuáles son las más apropiadas para obtener el valor más representativo del sistema. En esta tesis se comparan seis técnicas estadísticas: media aritmética, estimador insegado de la media (aplicando la función de Sichel), remuestreo con reemplazamiento (bootstrap), separación en diferentes poblaciones mediante métodos gráficos y métodos basados en criterios de máxima verosimilitud, y la simulación Gaussiana secuencial. Para este análisis se realizaron ocho campañas de muestreo, tanto en la Planta de Desarrollo Tecnológico de Hontomón como en análogos naturales (italianos y españoles). Los resultados muestran que la simulación Gaussiana secuencial suele ser el método más preciso para realizar el cálculo, sin embargo, existen ocasiones donde otros métodos son más apropiados. Como consecuencia, se desarrolla un procedimiento de actuación para seleccionar el método que proporcione el mejor estimador. Este procedimiento consiste, en primer lugar, en realizar un análisis variográfico. Si existe una autocorrelación entre los datos, modelizada mediante el variograma, la mejor técnica para calcular la emanación total y su intervalo de confianza es la simulación Gaussiana secuencial (sGs). Si los datos son independientes se debe comprobar la distribución muestral, aplicando la media aritmética o el estimador insesgado de la media (Sichel) para datos normales o lognormales respectivamente. Cuando los datos no son normales o corresponden a una mezcla de poblaciones la mejor técnica de estimación es la de remuestreo con reemplazamiento (bootstrap). Siguiendo este procedimiento el máximo valor del intervalo de confianza estuvo en el orden del ±20/25%, con la mayoría de valores comprendidos entre ±3,5% y ±8%. La identificación de las diferentes poblaciones muestrales en los datos de flujo de CO2 puede ayudar a interpretar los resultados obtenidos, toda vez que esta distribución se ve afectada por la presencia de varios procesos geoquímicos como, por ejemplo, una fuente geológica o biológica del CO2. Así pues, este análisis puede ser una herramienta útil en el programa de monitorización, donde el principal objetivo es demostrar que no hay fugas desde el reservorio a la atmósfera y, si ocurren, detectarlas y cuantificarlas. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el mejor proceso para realizar la separación de poblaciones está basado en criterios de máxima verosimilitud. Los procedimientos gráficos, aunque existen pautas para realizarlos, tienen un cierto grado de subjetividad en la interpretación de manera que los resultados son menos reproducibles. Durante el desarrollo de la tesis se analizó, en análogos naturales, la relación existente entre el CO2 y los isótopos del radón (222Rn y 220Rn), detectándose en todas las zonas de emisión de CO2 una relación positiva entre los valores de concentración de 222Rn en aire del suelo y el flujo de CO2. Comparando la concentración de 220Rn con el flujo de CO2 la relación no es tan clara, mientras que en algunos casos aumenta en otros se detecta una disminución, hecho que parece estar relacionado con la profundidad de origen del radón. Estos resultados confirmarían la posible aplicación de los isótopos del radón como trazadores del origen de los gases y su aplicación en la detección de fugas. Con respecto a la determinación de la línea base de flujo CO2 en la PDT de Hontomín, se realizaron mediciones con la cámara de acúmulo en las proximidades de los sondeos petrolíferos, perforados en los ochenta y denominados H-1, H-2, H-3 y H-4, en la zona donde se instalarán el sondeo de inyección (H-I) y el de monitorización (H-A) y en las proximidades de la falla sur. Desde noviembre de 2009 a abril de 2011 se realizaron siete campañas de muestreo, adquiriéndose más de 4.000 registros de flujo de CO2 con los que se determinó la línea base y su variación estacional. Los valores obtenidos fueron bajos (valores medios entre 5 y 13 g•m-2•d-1), detectándose pocos valores anómalos, principalmente en las proximidades del sondeo H-2. Sin embargo, estos valores no se pudieron asociar a una fuente profunda del CO2 y seguramente estuvieran más relacionados con procesos biológicos, como la respiración del suelo. No se detectaron valores anómalos cerca del sistema de fracturación (falla Ubierna), toda vez que en esta zona los valores de flujo son tan bajos como en el resto de puntos de muestreo. En este sentido, los valores de flujo de CO2 aparentemente están controlados por la actividad biológica, corroborado al obtenerse los menores valores durante los meses de otoño-invierno e ir aumentando en los periodos cálidos. Se calcularon dos grupos de valores de referencia, el primer grupo (UCL50) es 5 g•m-2•d-1 en las zonas no aradas en los meses de otoño-invierno y 3,5 y 12 g•m-2•d-1 en primavera-verano para zonas aradas y no aradas, respectivamente. El segundo grupo (UCL99) corresponde a 26 g•m-2•d- 1 durante los meses de otoño-invierno en las zonas no aradas y 34 y 42 g•m-2•d-1 para los meses de primavera-verano en zonas aradas y no aradas, respectivamente. Flujos mayores a estos valores de referencia podrían ser indicativos de una posible fuga durante la inyección y posterior a la misma. Los primeros datos geoquímicos e isotópicos de las aguas superficiales (de escorrentía y de manantiales) en el área de Hontomín–Huermeces fueron analizados. Los datos sugieren que las aguas estudiadas están relacionadas con aguas meteóricas con un circuito hidrogeológico superficial, caracterizadas por valores de TDS relativamente bajos (menor a 800 mg/L) y una fácie hidrogeoquímica de Ca2+(Mg2+)-HCO3 −. Algunas aguas de manantiales se caracterizan por concentraciones elevadas de NO3 − (concentraciones de hasta 123 mg/l), lo que sugiere una contaminación antropogénica. Se obtuvieron concentraciones anómalas de of Cl−, SO4 2−, As, B y Ba en dos manantiales cercanos a los sondeos petrolíferos y en el rio Ubierna, estos componentes son probablemente indicadores de una posible mezcla entre los acuíferos profundos y superficiales. El estudio de los gases disueltos en las aguas también evidencia el circuito superficial de las aguas. Estando, por lo general, dominado por la componente atmosférica (N2, O2 y Ar). Sin embargo, en algunos casos el gas predominante fue el CO2 (con concentraciones que llegan al 63% v/v), aunque los valores isotópicos del carbono (<-17,7 ‰) muestran que lo más probable es que esté relacionado con un origen biológico. Los datos geoquímicos e isotópicos de las aguas superficiales obtenidos en la zona de Hontomín se pueden considerar como el valor de fondo con el que comparar durante la fase operacional, la clausura y posterior a la clausura. En este sentido, la composición de los elementos mayoritarios y traza, la composición isotópica del carbono del CO2 disuelto y del TDIC (Carbono inorgánico disuelto) y algunos elementos traza se pueden considerar como parámetros adecuados para detectar la migración del CO2 a los ambientes superficiales. ABSTRACT Since 2009, a group made up of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM; Spain) and Università degli Studi Firenze (UniFi; Italy) has been taking part in a joint project called “Strategies for Monitoring CO2 and other Gases in Natural analogues”. The group was coordinated by AMPHOS XXI, a private company established in Barcelona. The Project was financially supported by Fundación Ciudad de la Energía (CIUDEN; Spain) as a part of the EC-funded OXYCFB300 project (European Energy Program for Recovery -EEPR-; www.compostillaproject.eu). The main objectives of the project were aimed to develop and optimize analytical methodologies to be applied at the surface to Monitor and Verify the feasibility of geologically stored carbon dioxide. These techniques were oriented to detect and quantify possible CO2 leakages to the atmosphere. Several investigations were made in natural analogues from Spain and Italy and in the Tecnchnological Development Plant for CO2 injection al Hontomín (Burgos, Spain). The studying techniques were mainly focused on the measurements of diffuse soil gases and surface and shallow waters. The soil-gas measurements included the determination of CO2 flux and the application to natural trace gases (e.g. radon) that may help to detect any CO2 leakage. As far as the water chemistry is concerned, geochemical and isotopic data related to surface and spring waters and dissolved gases in the area of the PDT of Hontomín were analyzed to determine the most suitable parameters to trace the migration of the injected CO2 into the near-surface environments. The accumulation chamber method was used to measure the diffuse emission of CO2 at the soil-atmosphere interface. Although this technique has widely been applied in different scientific areas, it was considered of the utmost importance to adapt the optimum methodology for measuring the CO2 soil flux and estimating the total CO2 output to the specific features of the site where CO2 is to be stored shortly. During the pre-injection phase CO2 fluxes are expected to be relatively low where in the intra- and post-injection phases, if leakages are to be occurring, small variation in CO2 flux might be detected when the CO2 “noise” is overcoming the biological activity of the soil (soil respiration). CO2 flux measurements by the accumulation chamber method could be performed without vegetation clearance or after vegetation clearance. However, the results obtained after clearance show less dispersion and this suggests that this procedure appears to be more suitable for monitoring CO2 Storage sites. The measurement protocol, applied for the determination of the CO2 flux baseline at Hontomín, has included the following steps: a) cleaning and removal of both the vegetal cover and top 2 cm of soil, b) waiting to reduce flux perturbation due to the soil removal and c) measuring the CO2 flux. Once completing the CO2 flux measurements and detected whether there were anomalies zones, the total CO2 output was estimated to quantify the amount of CO2 released to the atmosphere in each of the studied areas. There is a wide range of methodologies for the estimation of the CO2 output, which were applied to understand which one was the most representative. In this study six statistical methods are presented: arithmetic mean, minimum variances unbiased estimator, bootstrap resample, partitioning of data into different populations with a graphical and a maximum likelihood procedures, and sequential Gaussian simulation. Eight campaigns were carried out in the Hontomín CO2 Storage Technology Development Plant and in natural CO2 analogues. The results show that sequential Gaussian simulation is the most accurate method to estimate the total CO2 output and the confidential interval. Nevertheless, a variety of statistic methods were also used. As a consequence, an application procedure for selecting the most realistic method was developed. The first step to estimate the total emanation rate was the variogram analysis. If the relation among the data can be explained with the variogram, the best technique to calculate the total CO2 output and its confidence interval is the sequential Gaussian simulation method (sGs). If the data are independent, their distribution is to be analyzed. For normal and log-normal distribution the proper methods are the arithmetic mean and minimum variances unbiased estimator, respectively. If the data are not normal (log-normal) or are a mixture of different populations the best approach is the bootstrap resampling. According to these steps, the maximum confidence interval was about ±20/25%, with most of values between ±3.5% and ±8%. Partitioning of CO2 flux data into different populations may help to interpret the data as their distribution can be affected by different geochemical processes, e.g. geological or biological sources of CO2. Consequently, it may be an important tool in a monitoring CCS program, where the main goal is to demonstrate that there are not leakages from the reservoir to the atmosphere and, if occurring, to be able to detect and quantify it. Results show that the partitioning of populations is better performed by maximum likelihood criteria, since graphical procedures have a degree of subjectivity in the interpretation and results may not be reproducible. The relationship between CO2 flux and radon isotopes (222Rn and 220Rn) was studied in natural analogues. In all emissions zones, a positive relation between 222Rn and CO2 was observed. However, the relationship between activity of 220Rn and CO2 flux is not clear. In some cases the 220Rn activity indeed increased with the CO2 flux in other measurements a decrease was recognized. We can speculate that this effect was possibly related to the route (deep or shallow) of the radon source. These results may confirm the possible use of the radon isotopes as tracers for the gas origin and their application in the detection of leakages. With respect to the CO2 flux baseline at the TDP of Hontomín, soil flux measurements in the vicinity of oil boreholes, drilled in the eighties and named H-1 to H-4, and injection and monitoring wells were performed using an accumulation chamber. Seven surveys were carried out from November 2009 to summer 2011. More than 4,000 measurements were used to determine the baseline flux of CO2 and its seasonal variations. The measured values were relatively low (from 5 to 13 g•m-2•day-1) and few outliers were identified, mainly located close to the H-2 oil well. Nevertheless, these values cannot be associated to a deep source of CO2, being more likely related to biological processes, i.e. soil respiration. No anomalies were recognized close to the deep fault system (Ubierna Fault) detected by geophysical investigations. There, the CO2 flux is indeed as low as other measurement stations. CO2 fluxes appear to be controlled by the biological activity since the lowest values were recorded during autumn-winter seasons and they tend to increase in warm periods. Two reference CO2 flux values (UCL50 of 5 g•m-2•d-1 for non-ploughed areas in autumn-winter seasons and 3.5 and 12 g•m-2•d-1 for in ploughed and non-ploughed areas, respectively, in spring-summer time, and UCL99 of 26 g•m-2•d-1 for autumn-winter in not-ploughed areas and 34 and 42 g•m-2•d-1 for spring-summer in ploughed and not-ploughed areas, respectively, were calculated. Fluxes higher than these reference values could be indicative of possible leakage during the operational and post-closure stages of the storage project. The first geochemical and isotopic data related to surface and spring waters and dissolved gases in the area of Hontomín–Huermeces (Burgos, Spain) are presented and discussed. The chemical and features of the spring waters suggest that they are related to a shallow hydrogeological system as the concentration of the Total Dissolved Solids approaches 800 mg/L with a Ca2+(Mg2+)-HCO3 − composition, similar to that of the surface waters. Some spring waters are characterized by relatively high concentrations of NO3 − (up to 123 mg/L), unequivocally suggesting an anthropogenic source. Anomalous concentrations of Cl−, SO4 2−, As, B and Ba were measured in two springs, discharging a few hundred meters from the oil wells, and in the Rio Ubierna. These contents are possibly indicative of mixing processes between deep and shallow aquifers. The chemistry of the dissolved gases also evidences the shallow circuits of the Hontomín– Huermeces, mainly characterized by an atmospheric source as highlighted by the contents of N2, O2, Ar and their relative ratios. Nevertheless, significant concentrations (up to 63% by vol.) of isotopically negative CO2 (<−17.7‰ V-PDB) were found in some water samples, likely related to a biogenic source. The geochemical and isotopic data of the surface and spring waters in the surroundings of Hontomín can be considered as background values when intra- and post-injection monitoring programs will be carried out. In this respect, main and minor solutes, the isotopic carbon of dissolved CO2 and TDIC (Total Dissolved Inorganic Carbon) and selected trace elements can be considered as useful parameters to trace the migration of the injected CO2 into near-surface environments.

Diffuse soil CO2 flux to assess the reliability of CO2 storage the reliability of CO2 storage in the Mazarrón-Gañuelas Tertiary Basin (Spain)

In the framework of a global investigation of the Spanish natural analogues of CO2 storage and leakage, four selected sites from the Mazarrón?Gañuelas Tertiary Basin (Murcia, Spain) were studied for computing the diffuse soil CO2 flux, by using the accumulation chamber method. The Basin is characterized by the presence of a deep, saline, thermal (?47 ?C) CO2-rich aquifer intersected by two deep geothermal exploration wells named ?El Saladillo? (535 m) and ?El Reventón? (710 m). The CO2 flux data were processed by means of a graphical?statistical method, kriging estimation and sequential Gaussian simulation algorithms. The results have allowed concluding that the Tertiary marly cap-rock of this CO2-rich aquifer acts as a very effective sealing, preventing any CO2 leak from this natural CO2 storage site, being therefore an excellent scenario to guarantee, by analogy, the safety of a CO2 storage.

Análise de incertezas do modelo de teores associado aos investimentos de pesquisa de longo prazo

Os empreendimentos de mineração comumente demandam grande quantidade de investimentos financeiros e, na maioria das vezes, longos períodos de implantação, o que os torna altamente sujeitos a diversas fontes de incertezas. Tais incertezas comumente tendem a diminuir conforme a evolução do projeto. O objetivo deste estudo é correlacionar as incertezas associadas ao modelo de teores de cobre do depósito Sequeirinho com o volume de investimentos realizados ao longo de distintas fases da pesquisa geológica. Este depósito insere-se no contexto do Complexo de Mineração Sossego, localizado no município de Canaã dos Carajás (PA). Primeiramente, foram realizadas 100 simulações para cada domínio litológico em cada campanha de sondagem (pré-1998, 1999, 2000, 2002 e 2003) a partir do método de simulação sequencial gaussiana condicionada aos dados amostrais, totalizando 1.400 possíveis cenários. Para a avaliação das incertezas foram calculados três índices: variância condicional, coeficiente de variação condicional e intervalo interquartil. Por fim, a avaliação dos investimentos foi elaborada a partir dos custos estimados para o desenvolvimento de sondagens e análises químicas. Desde a campanha pré-1998, houve uma tendência de os teores médios do depósito aproximarem-se dos prováveis valores reais observados nas fases finais da pesquisa. No ano de 2000 ocorreu o maior investimento (cerca de 28 milhões de Reais) e a redução das incertezas atingiu o patamar de 15%. Os investimentos desenvolvidos em sondagens posteriores à campanha de 2000 foram da ordem de 9 milhões de Reais (cerca de 12 mil metros de sondagem), porém, não foram constatadas reduções significativas das incertezas. Este investimento seria melhor aproveitado caso fosse redirecionado a novas áreas de prospecção. Além do montante financeiro necessário para a redução das incertezas, foco deste estudo, as variações na interpretação geológica e a locação dos furos de sondagem são variáveis importantes na análise de incertezas associadas aos investimentos em pesquisa geológica.

Subsidence activity maps derived from DInSAR data: Orihuela case study

A new methodology is proposed to produce subsidence activity maps based on the geostatistical analysis of persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) data. PSI displacement measurements are interpolated based on conditional Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) to calculate multiple equiprobable realizations of subsidence. The result from this process is a series of interpolated subsidence values, with an estimation of the spatial variability and a confidence level on the interpolation. These maps complement the PSI displacement map, improving the identification of wide subsiding areas at a regional scale. At a local scale, they can be used to identify buildings susceptible to suffer subsidence related damages. In order to do so, it is necessary to calculate the maximum differential settlement and the maximum angular distortion for each building of the study area. Based on PSI-derived parameters those buildings in which the serviceability limit state has been exceeded, and where in situ forensic analysis should be made, can be automatically identified. This methodology has been tested in the city of Orihuela (SE Spain) for the study of historical buildings damaged during the last two decades by subsidence due to aquifer overexploitation. The qualitative evaluation of the results from the methodology carried out in buildings where damages have been reported shows a success rate of 100%.

Successive nonparametric estimation of conditional distributions

Spatial characterization of non-Gaussian attributes in earth sciences and engineering commonly requires the estimation of their conditional distribution. The indicator and probability kriging approaches of current nonparametric geostatistics provide approximations for estimating conditional distributions. They do not, however, provide results similar to those in the cumbersome implementation of simultaneous cokriging of indicators. This paper presents a new formulation termed successive cokriging of indicators that avoids the classic simultaneous solution and related computational problems, while obtaining equivalent results to the impractical simultaneous solution of cokriging of indicators. A successive minimization of the estimation variance of probability estimates is performed, as additional data are successively included into the estimation process. In addition, the approach leads to an efficient nonparametric simulation algorithm for non-Gaussian random functions based on residual probabilities.

Detection of moisture stress by indicator plots — A simulation

The possibility of advanced indication of moisture stress in a crop by small prepared plots with compacted or partially sand-substituted soils is examined by an analytical simulation. A series of soils and three crops are considered for the simulation. The moisture characteristics of the soils are calculated with an available model. Using average potential evapotranspiration values and a simple actual evapotranspiration model, the onset of moisture stress in the natural and indicator plots is calculated for different degrees of sand substitution and compaction. Cases where sand substitution fails are determined. The effect of intervening rainfall and limited root depth on the beginning of moisture stress is investigated.