Adaptive search and information updating in sequential mate choice

Classical treatments of problems of sequential mate choice assume that the distribution of the quality of potential mates is known a priori. This assumption, made for analytical purposes, may seem unrealistic, opposing empirical data as well as evolutionary arguments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we develop a model that includes the possibility for searching individuals to learn about the distribution and in particular to update mean and variance during the search. In a constant environment, a priori knowledge of the parameter values brings strong benefits in both time needed to make a decision and average value of mate obtained. Knowing the variance yields more benefits than knowing the mean, and benefits increase with variance. However, the costs of learning become progressively lower as more time is available for choice. When parameter values differ between demes and/or searching periods, a strategy relying on fixed a priori information might lead to erroneous decisions, which confers advantages on the learning strategy. However, time for choice plays an important role as well: if a decision must be made rapidly, a fixed strategy may do better even when the fixed image does not coincide with the local parameter values. These results help in delineating the ecological-behavior context in which learning strategies may spread.

Sequential screening

We present a model of price discrimination where a monopolistfaces a consumer who is privately informed about thedistribution of his valuation for an indivisible unit ofgood but has yet to learn privately the actual valuation.The monopolist sequentially screens the consumer with amenu of contracts:the consumer self-selects once by choosing a contract andthen self-selects again when he learns the actual valuation. A deterministic sequential mechanism is a menu of refundcontracts, each consisting of an advance payment and a refundamount in case of no consumption, but sequential mechanismsmay involve randomization.We characterize the optimal sequential mechanism when someconsumer types are more eager in the sense of first-orderstochastic dominance, and when some types face greatervaluation uncertainty in the sense of mean-preserving-spread.We show that it can be optimal to subsidize consumer typeswith smaller valuation uncertainty (through low refund, as inairplane ticket pricing) in order to reduce the rent to thosewith greater uncertainty. The size of distortion depends bothon the type distribution and on how informative the consumer'sinitial private knowledge is about his valuation, but noton how much he initially knows about the valuation per se.

Sequential partitioning: an alternative to understanding size distributions of avalanches in first-order phase transitions

We study the problem of the partition of a system of initial size V into a sequence of fragments s1,s2,s3 . . . . By assuming a scaling hypothesis for the probability p(s;V) of obtaining a fragment of a given size, we deduce that the final distribution of fragment sizes exhibits power-law behavior. This minimal model is useful to understanding the distribution of avalanche sizes in first-order phase transitions at low temperatures.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Geographic distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes in Brazil

Brazil is a country of continental dimension with a population of different ethnic backgrounds. Thus, a wide variation in the frequencies of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes is expected to occur. To address this point, 1,688 sequential samples from chronic HCV patients were analyzed. HCV-RNA was amplified by the RT-PCR from blood samples collected from 1995 to 2000 at different laboratories located in different cities from all Brazilian States. Samples were collected in tubes containing a gel separator, centrifuged in the site of collection and sent by express mail in a refrigerated container to Laboratório Bioquímico Jardim Paulista, São Paulo, SP, Brazil. HCV- RNA was extracted from serum and submitted to RT and nested PCR using standard procedures. Nested PCR products were submitted to cycle sequencing reactions without prior purification. Sequences were analyzed for genotype determination and the following frequencies were found: 64.9% (1,095) for genotype 1, 4.6% (78) for genotype 2, 30.2% (510) for genotype 3, 0.2% (3) for genotype 4, and 0.1% (2) for genotype 5. The frequencies of HCV genotypes were statistically different among Brazilian regions (P = 0.00017). In all regions, genotype 1 was the most frequent (51.7 to 74.1%), reaching the highest value in the North; genotype 2 was more prevalent in the Center-West region (11.4%), especially in Mato Grosso State (25.8%), while genotype 3 was more common in the South (43.2%). Genotypes 4 and 5 were rarely found and only in the Southeast, in São Paulo State. The present data indicate the need for careful epidemiological surveys throughout Brazil since knowing the frequency and distribution of the genotypes would provide key information for understanding the spread of HCV.

Distribution of selected heavy metals in sediments of the Agueda river (Central Portugal)

The state of river water deterioration in the Agueda hydrographic basin, mostly in the western part, partly reflects the high rate of housing and industrial development in this area in recent years. The streams have acted as a sink for organic and inorganic loads from several origins: domestic and industrial sewage and agricultural waste. The contents of the heavy metals Cr, Cd, Ni, Cu, Pb, and Zn were studied by sequential chemical extraction of the principal geochemical phases of streambed sediments, in the <63 mum fraction, in order to assess their potential availability to the environment, investigating, the metal concentrations, assemblages, and trends. The granulometric and mineralogical characteristics of this sediment fraction were also studied. This study revealed clear pollution by Cr, Cd, Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb, as a result from both natural and anthropogenic origins. The chemical transport of metals appears to be essentially by the following geochemical phases, in decreasing order of significance: (exchangeable + carbonates) much greater than (organics) much greater than (Mn and Fe oxides and hydroxides). The (exchangeable + carbonate) phase plays an important part in the fixation of Cu, Ni, Zn, and Cd. The organic phase is important in the fixation of Cr, Pb, and also Cu and Ni. Analyzing the metal contents in the residual fraction, we conclude that Zn and Cd are the most mobile, and Cr and Pb are less mobile than Cu and Ni. The proximity of the pollutant sources and the timing of the influx of contaminated material control the distribution of the contaminant-related sediments locally and on the network scale.

Deposition of charged inhaled aerosols with transient airflow in sequential lung airway model

Transport and deposition of charged inhaled aerosols in double planar bifurcation representing generation three to five of human respiratory system has been studied under a light activity breathing condition. Both steady and oscillatory laminar inhalation airflow is considered. Particle trajectories are calculated using a Lagrangian reference frame, which is dominated by the fluid force driven by airflow, gravity force and electrostatic forces (both of space and image charge forces). The particle-mesh method is selected to calculate the space charge force. This numerical study investigates the deposition efficiency in the three-dimensional model under various particle sizes, charge values, and inlet particle distribution. Numerical results indicate that particles carrying an adequate level of charge can improve deposition efficiency in the airway model.

Distribution of research gains in multistage production systems: further results

The "marketing" sector in Muth's single-stage model is disaggregated in to two sequential stages: "processing" and "distribution. "Comparative statics are used to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for farmers to gain from downstream research. The farm benefits are shown to depend crucially on the stage in "marketing" to which research is directed.

Distribution and availability of trace elements in municipal solid waste composts

Trace element contamination is one of the main problems linked to the quality of compost, especially when it is produced from urban wastes, which can lead to high levels of some potentially toxic elements such as Cu, Pb or Zn. In this work, the distribution and bioavailability of five elements (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Ni) were studied in five Spanish composts obtained from different feedstocks (municipal solid waste, garden trimmings, sewage sludge and mixed manure). The five composts showed high total concentrations of these elements, which in some cases limited their commercialization due to legal imperatives. First, a physical fractionation of the composts was performed, and the five elements were determined in each size fraction. Their availability was assessed by several methods of extraction (water, CaCl2–DTPA, the PBET extract, the TCLP extract, and sodium pyrophosphate), and their chemical distribution was assessed using the BCR sequential extraction procedure. The results showed that the finer fractions were enriched with the elements studied, and that Cu, Pb and Zn were the most potentially problematic ones, due to both their high total concentrations and availability. The partition into the BCR fractions was different for each element, but the differences between composts were scarce. Pb was evenly distributed among the four fractions defined in the BCR (soluble, oxidizable, reducible and residual); Cu was mainly found in the oxidizable fraction, linked to organic matter, and Zn was mainly associated to the reducible fraction (iron oxides), while Ni and Cr were mainly present almost exclusively in the residual fraction. It was not possible to establish a univocal relation between trace elements availability and their BCR fractionation. Given the differences existing for the availability and distribution of these elements, which not always were related to their total concentrations, we think that legal limits should consider availability, in order to achieve a more realistic assessment of the risks linked to compost use.

Spatial patterns of gluten protein and polymer distribution in wheat grain

The starchy endosperm is the major storage tissue in the mature wheat grain and exhibits quantitative and qualitative gradients in composition, with the outermost cell layers being rich in protein, mainly gliadins, and the inner cells being low in protein but enriched in high-molecular-weight (HMW) subunits of glutenin. We have used sequential pearling to produce flour fractions enriched in particular cell layers to determine the protein gradients in four different cultivars grown at two nitrogen levels. The results show that the steepness of the protein gradient is determined by both genetic and nutritional factors, with three high-protein breadmaking cultivars being more responsive to the N treatment than a low-protein cultivar suitable for livestock feed. Nitrogen also affected the relative abundances of the three main classes of wheat prolamins: the sulfur-poor ω-gliadins showed the greatest response to nitrogen and increased evenly across the grain; the HMW subunits also increased in response to nitrogen but proportionally more in the outer layers of the starchy endosperm than near the core, while the sulfur-rich prolamins showed the opposite trend.

Experimental evidence and model explanation for cell population characteristics modification when applying sequential photodynamic therapy

We present experimental evidence of the existence of cell variability in terms of threshold light dose for Hep G2 (liver cancer cells) cultured. Using a theoretical model to describe the effects caused by successive photodynamic therapy (PDT) sessions, and based on the consequences of a partial response we introduce the threshold dose distribution concept within a tumor. The experimental model consists in a stack of flasks, and simulates subsequent layers of a tissue exposed to PDT application. The result indicates that cells from the same culture could respond in different ways to similar PDT induced-damages. Moreover, the consequence is a partial killing of the cells submitted to PDT, and the death fraction decreased at each in vitro PDT session. To demonstrate the occurrence of cell population modification as a response to PDT, we constructed a simple theoretical model and assumed that the threshold dose distribution for a cell population of a tumor is represented by a modified Gaussian distribution.

Identification, content, and distribution of type VI collagen in bovine tendons

Tendon composition changes according to differentiation, mechanical load, and aging. In this study, we attempted to identify, localize, and quantify type VI collagen in bovine tendons. Type VI collagen was identified by the electrophoretic behavior of the alpha chains and Western blotting, and by rotary shadowing. Type VI collagen was extracted from powdered tendon with three sequential 24-h extractions with 4 M guanidine-HCl. The amount of type VI collagen was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for purely tensional areas and for the compressive fibrocartilage regions of the deep flexor tendon of the digits, for the corresponding fetal and calf tendons, and for the extensor digital tendon. The distal fibrocartilaginous region of the adult tendon was richer in type VI collagen than the tensional area, reaching as much as 3.3 mg/g (0.33%) of the wet weight. Calf tendons showed an accumulation of type VI at the fibrocartilage site. Immunocytochemistry demonstrated that type VI collagen was evenly distributed in the tensional areas of tendons but was highly concentrated around the fibrochondrocytes in the fibrocartilages. The results demonstrate that tendons are variable with regard to the presence and distribution of type VI collagen. The early accumulation of type VI collagen in the region of calf tendon that will become fibrocartilage in the adult suggests that it is a good marker of fibrocartilage differentiation. Furthermore, the distribution of type VI collagen in tendon fibrocartilage indicates that it organizes the pericellular environment and may represent a survival factor for these cells.

Reliability assessment of energy limited systems using sequential montecarlo simulation

This paper explains why the reliability assessment of energy limited systems requires more detailed models for primary generating resources availability, internal and external generating dispatch and customer demand than the ones commonly used for large power systems and presents a methodology based on the full sequential Montecarlo simulation technique with AC power flow for their long term reliability assessment which can properly include these detailed models. By means of a real example, it is shown how the simplified modeling traditionally used for large power systems leads to pessimistic predictions if it is applied to an energy limited system and also that it cannot predict all the load point adequacy problems. © 2006 IEEE.

Distribution and availability of copper, iron, manganese and zinc in the archaeological black earth profile from the Amazon region

Os solos de terra preta arqueológica são ricos em matéria orgânica, contêm fragmentos cerâmicos e artefatos líticos e apresentam nutrientes em concentrações mais elevadas do que outros tipos de solos. Com o intuito de contribuir com informações sobre concentrações de micronutrientes disponíveis em solos de terra preta, foram avaliadas através de extrações químicas sequenciais, a distribuição e disponibilidade de Cu, Fe, Mn e Zn em um perfil de terra preta arqueológica no município de Juruti, estado do Pará. As maiores concentrações de Cu, Fe, Mn e Zn no perfil são encontradas na fração residual. Este estudo mostrou que ferro, manganês e zinco são preferencialmente disponíveis a partir das frações, associados aos óxidos de Fe-Mn, variando de 1265,39 a 1818,12 mg kg^-1, 0,83 a 48,51 mg kg^-1 e 1,92 a 12,05 mg kg^-1, respectivamente, e o cobre a partir da matéria orgânica, variando de 0,13 a 0,45 mg kg^-1.

Sequential sampling of soybean and beans seeds for Sclerotinia sclerotiorum detection (Lib.) DeBary

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)