Numerical simulations of magma chamber dynamics at Campi Flegrei, and associated seismicity, deformation and gravity changes

Understanding the complex relationships between quantities measured by volcanic monitoring network and shallow magma processes is a crucial headway for the comprehension of volcanic processes and a more realistic evaluation of the associated hazard. This question is very relevant at Campi Flegrei, a volcanic quiescent caldera immediately north-west of Napoli (Italy). The system activity shows a high fumarole release and periodic ground slow movement (bradyseism) with high seismicity. This activity, with the high people density and the presence of military and industrial buildings, makes Campi Flegrei one of the areas with higher volcanic hazard in the world. In such a context my thesis has been focused on magma dynamics due to the refilling of shallow magma chambers, and on the geophysical signals detectable by seismic, deformative and gravimetric monitoring networks that are associated with this phenomenologies. Indeed, the refilling of magma chambers is a process frequently occurring just before a volcanic eruption; therefore, the faculty of identifying this dynamics by means of recorded signal analysis is important to evaluate the short term volcanic hazard. The space-time evolution of dynamics due to injection of new magma in the magma chamber has been studied performing numerical simulations with, and implementing additional features in, the code GALES (Longo et al., 2006), recently developed and still on the upgrade at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Pisa (Italy). GALES is a finite element code based on a physico-mathematical two dimensional, transient model able to treat fluids as multiphase homogeneous mixtures, compressible to incompressible. The fundamental equations of mass, momentum and energy balance are discretised both in time and space using the Galerkin Least-Squares and discontinuity-capturing stabilisation technique. The physical properties of the mixture are computed as a function of local conditions of magma composition, pressure and temperature.The model features enable to study a broad range of phenomenologies characterizing pre and sin-eruptive magma dynamics in a wide domain from the volcanic crater to deep magma feeding zones. The study of displacement field associated with the simulated fluid dynamics has been carried out with a numerical code developed by the Geophysical group at the University College Dublin (O’Brien and Bean, 2004b), with whom we started a very profitable collaboration. In this code, the seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous media with free surface (e.g. the Earth’s surface) is simulated using a discrete elastic lattice where particle interactions are controlled by the Hooke’s law. This method allows to consider medium heterogeneities and complex topography. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations have been defined within a coordinate project (INGV-DPC 2004-06 V3_2 “Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk - Campi Flegrei”), to which this thesis contributes, and many researchers experienced on Campi Flegrei in volcanological, seismic, petrological, geochemical fields, etc. collaborate. Numerical simulations of magma and rock dynamis have been coupled as described in the thesis. The first part of the thesis consists of a parametric study aimed at understanding the eect of the presence in magma of carbon dioxide in magma in the convection dynamics. Indeed, the presence of this volatile was relevant in many Campi Flegrei eruptions, including some eruptions commonly considered as reference for a future activity of this volcano. A set of simulations considering an elliptical magma chamber, compositionally uniform, refilled from below by a magma with volatile content equal or dierent from that of the resident magma has been performed. To do this, a multicomponent non-ideal magma saturation model (Papale et al., 2006) that considers the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O, has been implemented in GALES. Results show that the presence of CO2 in the incoming magma increases its buoyancy force promoting convection ad mixing. The simulated dynamics produce pressure transients with frequency and amplitude in the sensitivity range of modern geophysical monitoring networks such as the one installed at Campi Flegrei . In the second part, simulations more related with the Campi Flegrei volcanic system have been performed. The simulated system has been defined on the basis of conditions consistent with the bulk of knowledge of Campi Flegrei and in particular of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 B.P.), commonly considered as reference for a future high intensity eruption in this area. The magmatic system has been modelled as a long dyke refilling a small shallow magma chamber; magmas with trachytic and phonolitic composition and variable volatile content of H2O and CO2 have been considered. The simulations have been carried out changing the condition of magma injection, the system configuration (magma chamber geometry, dyke size) and the resident and refilling magma composition and volatile content, in order to study the influence of these factors on the simulated dynamics. Simulation results allow to follow each step of the gas-rich magma ascent in the denser magma, highlighting the details of magma convection and mixing. In particular, the presence of more CO2 in the deep magma results in more ecient and faster dynamics. Through this simulations the variation of the gravimetric field has been determined. Afterward, the space-time distribution of stress resulting from numerical simulations have been used as boundary conditions for the simulations of the displacement field imposed by the magmatic dynamics on rocks. The properties of the simulated domain (rock density, P and S wave velocities) have been based on data from literature on active and passive tomographic experiments, obtained through a collaboration with A. Zollo at the Dept. of Physics of the Federici II Univeristy in Napoli. The elasto-dynamics simulations allow to determine the variations of the space-time distribution of deformation and the seismic signal associated with the studied magmatic dynamics. In particular, results show that these dynamics induce deformations similar to those measured at Campi Flegrei and seismic signals with energies concentrated on the typical frequency bands observed in volcanic areas. The present work shows that an approach based on the solution of equations describing the physics of processes within a magmatic fluid and the surrounding rock system is able to recognise and describe the relationships between geophysical signals detectable on the surface and deep magma dynamics. Therefore, the results suggest that the combined study of geophysical data and informations from numerical simulations can allow in a near future a more ecient evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard.

Fault delineation and stress orientations from the analysis of background, low magnitude seismicity in Southern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this work was to show that refined analyses of background, low magnitude seismicity allow to delineate the main active faults and to accurately estimate the directions of the regional tectonic stress that characterize the Southern Apennines (Italy), a structurally complex area with high seismic potential. Thanks the presence in the area of an integrated dense and wide dynamic network, was possible to analyzed an high quality microearthquake data-set consisting of 1312 events that occurred from August 2005 to April 2011 by integrating the data recorded at 42 seismic stations of various networks. The refined seismicity location and focal mechanisms well delineate a system of NW-SE striking normal faults along the Apenninic chain and an approximately E-W oriented, strike-slip fault, transversely cutting the belt. The seismicity along the chain does not occur on a single fault but in a volume, delimited by the faults activated during the 1980 Irpinia M 6.9 earthquake, on sub-parallel predominant normal faults. Results show that the recent low magnitude earthquakes belongs to the background seismicity and they are likely generated along the major fault segments activated during the most recent earthquakes, suggesting that they are still active today thirty years after the mainshock occurrences. In this sense, this study gives a new perspective to the application of the high quality records of low magnitude background seismicity for the identification and characterization of active fault systems. The analysis of the stress tensor inversion provides two equivalent models to explain the microearthquake generation along both the NW-SE striking normal faults and the E- W oriented fault with a dominant dextral strike-slip motion, but having different geological interpretations. We suggest that the NW-SE-striking Africa-Eurasia convergence acts in the background of all these structures, playing a primary and unifying role in the seismotectonics of the whole region.

Toward a Magnitude Scale for Low Frequency Seismicity The LP energy for Campi Flegrei caldera

The energy released during a seismic crisis in volcanic areas is strictly related to the physical processes in the volcanic structure. In particular Long Period seismicity, that seems to be related to the oscillation of a fluid-filled crack (Chouet , 1996, Chouet, 2003, McNutt, 2005), can precedes or accompanies an eruption. The present doctoral thesis is focused on the study of the LP seismicity recorded in the Campi Flegrei volcano (Campania, Italy) during the October 2006 crisis. Campi Flegrei Caldera is an active caldera; the combination of an active magmatic system and a dense populated area make the Campi Flegrei a critical volcano. The source dynamic of LP seismicity is thought to be very different from the other kind of seismicity ( Tectonic or Volcano Tectonic): it’s characterized by a time sustained source and a low content in frequency. This features implies that the duration–magnitude, that is commonly used for VT events and sometimes for LPs as well, is unadapted for LP magnitude evaluation. The main goal of this doctoral work was to develop a method for the determination of the magnitude for the LP seismicity; it’s based on the comparison of the energy of VT event and LP event, linking the energy to the VT moment magnitude. So the magnitude of the LP event would be the moment magnitude of a VT event with the same energy of the LP. We applied this method to the LP data-set recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera in 2006, to an LP data-set of Colima volcano recorded in 2005 – 2006 and for an event recorded at Etna volcano. Experimenting this method to lots of waveforms recorded at different volcanoes we tested its easy applicability and consequently its usefulness in the routinely and in the quasi-real time work of a volcanological observatory.

Understanding volcanic processes using UV camera measurements of sulfur dioxide and coincident infrasound and seismicity

The exsolution of volatiles from magma maintains an important control on volcanic eruption styles. The nucleation, growth, and connectivity of bubbles during magma ascent provide the driving force behind eruptions, and the rate, volume, and ease of gas exsolution can affect eruptive activity. Volcanic plumes are the observable consequence of this magmatic degassing, and remote sensing techniques allow us to quantify changes in gas exsolution. However, until recently the methods used to measure volcanic plumes did not have the capability of detecting rapid changes in degassing on the scale of standard geophysical observations. The advent of the UV camera now makes high sample rate gas measurements possible. This type of dataset can then be compared to other volcanic observations to provide an in depth picture of degassing mechanisms in the shallow conduit. The goals of this research are to develop a robust methodology for UV camera field measurements of volcanic plumes, and utilize this data in conjunction with seismoacoustic records to illuminate degassing processes. Field and laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the effects of imaging conditions, vignetting, exposure time, calibration technique, and filter usage on the UV camera sulfur dioxide measurements. Using the best practices determined from these studies, a field campaign was undertaken at Volcán de Pacaya, Guatemala. Coincident plume sulfur dioxide measurements, acoustic recordings, and seismic observations were collected and analyzed jointly. The results provide insight into the small explosive features, variations in degassing rate, and plumbing system of this complex volcanic system. This research provides useful information for determining volcanic hazard at Pacaya, and demonstrates the potential of the UV camera in multiparameter studies.

Vulnerability analysis of RC buildings with wide beams located in moderate seismicity regions

A significant number of short-to-mid height RC buildings with wide beams have been constructed in areas of moderate seismicity of Spain, mainly for housing and administrative use. The buildings have a framed structure with one-way slabs; the wide beams constitute the distinctive characteristic, their depth being equal to that of the rest of the slab, thus providing a flat lower surface, convenient for construction and the layout of facilities. Seismic behavior in the direction of the wide beams appears to be deficient because of: (i) low lateral strength, mainly because of the small effective depth of the beams, (ii) inherent low ductility of the wide beams, generated by high amount of reinforcement, (iii) the big strut compressive forces developed inside the column-beam connections due to the low height of the beams, and (iv) the fact that the wide beams are wider than the columns, meaning that the contribution of the outer zones to the resistance of the beam-column joints is unreliable because there is no torsion reinforcement. In the orthogonal direction, the behavior is worse since the only members of the slabs that contribute to the lateral resistance are the joists and the façade beams. Moreover, these buildings were designed with codes that did not include ductility requirements and required only a low lateral resistance; indeed, in many cases, seismic action was not considered at all. Consequently, the seismic capacity of these structures is not reliable. The objective of this research is to assess numerically this capability, whereas further research will aim to propose retrofit strategies. The research approach consists of: (i) selecting a number of 3-story and 6-story buildings that represent the vast majority of the existing ones and (ii) evaluating their vulnerability through three types of analyses, namely: code-type, push-over and nonlinear dynamic analysis. Given the low lateral resistance of the main frames, the cooperation of the masonry infill walls is accounted for; for each representative building, three wall densities are considered. The results of the analyses show that the buildings in question exhibit inadequate seismic behavior in most of the examined situations. In general, the relative performance is less deficient for Target Drift CP (Collapse Prevention) than for IO (Immediate Occupancy). Since these buildings are selected to be representative of the vast majority of buildings with wide beams that were constructed in Spain without accounting for any seismic consideration, our conclusions can be extrapolated to a broader scenario.

Design energy input spectra for high seismicity regions based on Turkish registers

This work proposes design energy spectra in terms of an equivalent velocity, intended for regions with design peak acceleration 0.3 g or higher. These spectra were derived through linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses on a number of selected Turkish strong ground motion records. In the long and mid period ranges the analyses are linear, given the relative insensitivity of the spectra to structural parameters other than the fundamental period; conversely, in the short period range, the spectra are more sensitive to the structural parameters and, hence, nonlinear analyses are required. The selected records are classified in eight groups with respect to soil type (stiff or soft soil), the severity of the earthquake in terms of surface magnitude Ms(Ms≤ 5.5 and Ms> 5.5) and the relevance of the near-source effects (impulsive or vibratory). For each of these groups, median and characteristic spectra are proposed; such levels would respectively correspond to 50 and 95 % percentiles. These spectra have an initial linear growing branch in the short period range, a horizontal branch in the mid period range and a descending branch in the long period range. Empirical criteria for estimating the hysteretic energy from the input energy are suggested. The proposed design spectra are compared with those obtained from other studies.

Seismicity and seismic risk in Spain = Sismicite et risque sismique en Espagne

The spanish seismic norm has a direct application in building construction but it recomends specific studies in the case of important public works such us large dams or bridges. For this reason, and to establish specifical criteria in its field of activity, the Dirección General de Obras Hidráulicas of the spanish Ministerio de Obras Públicas y Urbanismo commissioned us a seismotectonical and seismic risk study applicable to Spain, materialized on a series of maps of inmediate and direct use. In this paper we explain the methodology pursued to obtain these maps. It has required, firstly, investigations with the aim to improve the seismic information corresponding to the historical or preinstrumental period, that allowed more precise cuantifications. Secondly, these data have been processed by probabilistic methods, using de intensity as foundamental parameter. The corresponding maps have been developed. Finally, other maps of seismic accelerations have been compiled. La normative sismorresistent espagnole á une application directe dans 1'edification, mais elle recommend la realitation des etudes especifiques dans le cas des travaux publics importants telles que ponts ou barrages. Pour cette raison et pour etablir des criteres especifiques dans son camp dáctivité, la Direccion General de Obras Hidraulicas du Ministerio de Obras Publicas y Urbanismo espagnol a commande un etude sismotectonique et de risque sismique applicable a l'Espagne, materialise en une serie de cartes de utilization directe et inmediate. Dans cette communication on explique la methodologie a suivre pour la realization de cettes cartes. Celá a fait necessaire, d'abord, des recherches pour amelliorer l'information concernant le periode historique ou preinstrumental, ce qui permet des cuantifications plus precises. En second lieu ces faits ont ête traités avec des methodes probabilistes, employant l'intensité come parametre fondamental. En consequence nous avons developpe des cartes d'intensite et d'acceleration sismique.

A selective phenomenology of the seismicity of Southern California.

Predictions of earthquakes that are based on observations of precursory seismicity cannot depend on the average properties of the seismicity, such as the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. Instead it must depend on the fluctuations in seismicity. We summarize the observational data of the fluctuations of seismicity in space, in time, and in a coupled space-time regime over the past 60 yr in Southern California, to provide a basis for determining whether these fluctuations are correlated with the times and locations of future strong earthquakes in an appropriate time- and space-scale. The simple extrapolation of the G-R distribution must lead to an overestimate of the risk due to large earthquakes. There may be two classes of earthquakes: the small earthquakes that satisfy the G-R law and the larger and large ones. Most observations of fluctuations of seismicity are of the rate of occurrence of smaller earthquakes. Large earthquakes are observed to be preceded by significant quiescence on the faults on which they occur and by an intensification of activity at distance. It is likely that the fluctuations are due to the nature of fractures on individual faults of the network of faults. There are significant inhomogeneities on these faults, which we assume will have an important influence on the nature of self-organization of seismicity. The principal source of the inhomogeneity on the large scale is the influence of geometry--i.e., of the nonplanarity of faults and the system of faults.

The organization of seismicity on fault networks.

Although models of homogeneous faults develop seismicity that has a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, this is only a transient state that is followed by events that are strongly influenced by the nature of the boundaries. Models with geometrical inhomogeneities of fracture thresholds can limit the sizes of earthquakes but now favor the characteristic earthquake model for large earthquakes. The character of the seismicity is extremely sensitive to distributions of inhomogeneities, suggesting that statistical rules for large earthquakes in one region may not be applicable to large earthquakes in another region. Model simulations on simple networks of faults with inhomogeneities of threshold develop episodes of lacunarity on all members of the network. There is no validity to the popular assumption that the average rate of slip on individual faults is a constant. Intermediate term precursory activity such as local quiescence and increases in intermediate-magnitude activity at long range are simulated well by the assumption that strong weakening of faults by injection of fluids and weakening of asperities on inhomogeneous models of fault networks is the dominant process; the heat flow paradox, the orientation of the stress field, and the low average stress drop in some earthquakes are understood in terms of the asperity model of inhomogeneous faulting.

Strength of the Iberian intraplate lithosphere: Cenozoic deformations and seismicity

Previous studies about the strength of the lithosphere in the center of Iberia fail to resolve the depth of earthquakes because of the rheological uncertainties. Therefore, new contributions are considered (the crustal structure from a density model) and several parameters (tectonic regime, mantle rheology, strain rate) are checked in this paper to properly examine the role of lithospheric strength in the intraplate seismicity and the Cenozoic evolution. The strength distribution with depth, the integrated strength, the effective elastic thickness and the seismogenic thickness have been calculated by a finite element modelling of the lithosphere across the Central System mountain range and the bordering Duero and Madrid sedimentary basins. Only a dry mantle under strike-slip/extension and a strain rate of 10-15 s-1, or under extension and 10-16 s-1, causes a strong lithosphere. The integrated strength and the elastic thickness are lower in the mountain chain than in the basins. This heterogeneity has been maintained since the Cenozoic and determine the mountain uplift and the biharmonic folding of the Iberian lithosphere during the Alpine deformations. The seismogenic thickness bounds the seismic activity in the upper–middle crust, and the decreasing crustal strength from the Duero Basin towards the Madrid Basin is related to a parallel increase in Plio–Quaternary deformations and seismicity. However, elasto–plastic modelling shows that current African–Eurasian convergence is resolved elastically or ductilely, which accounts for the low seismicity recorded in this region.

Seismicity of the earth,

"Works to which reference is made": p. 118-125.

Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena,

Mode of access: Internet.

Recurrence interval statistics of cellular automaton seismicity models

The recurrence interval statistics for regional seismicity follows a universal distribution function, independent of the tectonic setting or average rate of activity (Corral, 2004). The universal function is a modified gamma distribution with power-law scaling of recurrence intervals shorter than the average rate of activity and exponential decay for larger intervals. We employ the method of Corral (2004) to examine the recurrence statistics of a range of cellular automaton earthquake models. The majority of models has an exponential distribution of recurrence intervals, the same as that of a Poisson process. One model, the Olami-Feder-Christensen automaton, has recurrence statistics consistent with regional seismicity for a certain range of the conservation parameter of that model. For conservation parameters in this range, the event size statistics are also consistent with regional seismicity. Models whose dynamics are dominated by characteristic earthquakes do not appear to display universality of recurrence statistics.

Mining-associated Seismicity in Kolar Gold Mines: Some Case Studies using Multi-fractals

The occurrence of rockbursts was quite common during active mining periods in the Champion reef mines of Kolar gold fields, India. Among the major rockbursts, the ‘area-rockbursts’ were unique both in regard to their spatio-temporal distribution and the extent of damage caused to the mine workings. A detailed study of the spatial clustering of 3 major area-rockbursts (ARB) was carried out using a multi-fractal technique involving generalized correlation integral functions. The spatial distribution analysis of all 3 area-rockbursts showed that they are heterogeneous. The degree of heterogeneity (D2 – D∞) in the cases of ARB-I, II and III were found to be 0.52, 0.37 and 0.41 respectively. These differences in fractal structure indicate that the ARBs of the present study were fully controlled by different heterogeneous stress fields associated with different mining and geological conditions. The present study clearly showed the advantages of the application of multi-fractals to seismic data and to characterise, analyse and examine the area-rockbursts and their causative factors in the Kolar gold mines.