De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).

House price dynamics and bank herding: European empirical evidence

This paper investigates the behavior of residential property and examines the linkages between house price dynamics and bank herding behavior. The analysis presents evidence that irrational behaviour may have played a significant role in several countries, including; United Kingdom, Spain, Denmark, Sweden and Ireland. In addition, we also provide evidence indicative of herding behaviour in the European residential mortgage loan market. Granger Causality tests indicate that non-fundamentally justified prices dynamics contributed to herding by lenders and that this behaviour was a response by the banks as a group to common information on residential property assets. In contrast, in Germany, Portugal and Austria, residential property prices were largely explained by fundamentals. Furthermore, these countries show no evidence of either irrational price bubbles or herd behaviour in the mortgage market. Granger Causality tests indicate that both variables are independent.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2008

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: quarterly developments

Includes bibliography

The Continuing Practice and Impact of Discrimination

This chapter provides a detailed discussion of the evidence on housing and mortgage lending discrimination, as well as the potential impacts of such discrimination on minority outcomes like homeownership and neighborhood environment. The paper begins by discussing conceptual issues surrounding empirical analyses of discrimination including explanations for why discrimination takes place, defining different forms of discrimination, and the appropriate interpretation of observed racial and ethnic differences in treatment or outcomes. Next, the paper reviews evidence on housing market discrimination starting with evidence of segregation and price differences in the housing market and followed by direct evidence of discrimination by real estate agents in paired testing studies. Finally, mortgage market discrimination and barriers in access to mortgage credit are discussed. This discussion begins with an assessment of the role credit barriers play in explaining racial and ethnic differences in homeownership and follows with discussions of analyses of underwriting and the price of credit based on administrative and private sector data sources including analyses of the subprime market. The paper concludes that housing discrimination has declined especially in the market for owner-occupied housing and does not appear to play a large role in limiting the neighborhood choices of minority households or the concentration of minorities into central cities. On the other hand, the patterns of racial centralization and lower home ownership rates of African-Americans appear to be related to each other, and lower minority homeownership rates are in part attributable to barriers in the market for mortgage credit. The paper presents considerable evidence of racial and ethnic differences in mortgage underwriting, as well as additional evidence suggesting these differences may be attributable to differential provision of coaching, assistance, and support by loan officers. At this point, innovation in loan products, the shift towards risk based pricing, and growth of the subprime market have not mitigated the role credit barriers play in explaining racial and ethnic differences in homeownership. Further, the growth of the subprime lending industry appears to have segmented the mortgage market in terms of geography leading to increased costs of relying on local/neighborhood sources of mortgage credit and affecting the integrity of many low-income minority neighborhoods through increased foreclosure rates.

La financiación y la inversión inmobiliaria : repercusiones en el urbanismo y la arquitectura

El presente trabajo de tesis doctoral tiene por finalidad demostrar que las decisiones de financiación y de inversión inmobiliaria en España influyen de manera determinante en la configuración del proceso urbanístico y arquitectónico. Este planteamiento inicial obliga a formular las siguientes cuestiones: - En una primera fase, la situación en España del sector inmobiliario y su relación con el sector financiero en el contexto de la actual crisis financiera, iniciada en el año 2008. - Los métodos de análisis y selección de inversiones y su aplicación a los proyectos de inversión en función de la naturaleza de los activos inmobiliarios. - La valoración inmobiliaria para determinadas entidades financieras. - Características de la gestión financiera empresarial y de las empresas inmobiliarias. - El origen de fondos para financiar el proceso urbanístico y arquitectónico mediante las instituciones de inversión colectiva inmobiliaria y el mercado inmobiliario. - La regulación actual en España, a nivel estatal, del suelo como materia prima del sector inmobiliario. - La edificación residencial y el mercado inmobiliario en el actual contexto económico. - La posibilidad de crear en España un mercado de derivados basado en activos inmobiliarios. - Cómo repercute la actividad económica, a través de la inversión y la financiación, en los activos inmobiliarios, en el urbanismo y la arquitectura. Las cuestiones precedentes se resuelven de forma sistemática y metodológica en esta tesis doctoral estructurada en tres grandes bloques (inversión, financiación y repercusiones en el urbanismo y la arquitectura), obteniendo una serie de respuestas reflejadas en el desarrollo del presente trabajo que se sintetizan en las siguientes líneas: - La actual crisis financiera iniciada en el año 2008 ha provocado en España el colapso del sector inmobiliario y una nueva concepción en la naturaleza de los activos inmobiliarios. El sector inmobiliario trae causa del sector financiero, en especial del crédito bancario. - Dependencia y vinculación del sector inmobiliario español de la política monetaria europea: la incorporación de España a la moneda única transforma por completo el sector inmobiliario español. - Los métodos de análisis y selección de inversiones se conforman como instrumentos relevantes que nos permiten jerarquizar nuestros proyectos. No obstante, presentan una serie de limitaciones y dificultades de aplicación práctica, por lo que no deben considerarse como herramientas que nos aporten una única solución irrefutable. - La valoración de activos inmobiliarios se constituye en un pilar básico que fundamenta la correcta aplicación de los fondos. - La inversión en activos inmobiliarios puede realizarse de forma directa o indirecta. En este último supuesto, con una influencia relevante de las innovaciones financieras surgidas en los últimos años. - Las instituciones de inversión colectiva y el mercado hipotecario constituyen instituciones fundamentales capaces de captar importantes cantidades de fondos que impulsan y financian el proceso urbanístico y arquitectónico. - El complejo y cambiante sistema jurídico español en materia de suelo, dificulta la implementación de los procesos urbanísticos y arquitectónicos. - Tras la crisis financiera de 2008, los activos inmobiliarios tienen un comportamiento similar a otros activos en cuanto a subidas y bajadas de precios. En el actual sistema económico, la especulación forma parte inherente a la naturaleza de los activos inmobiliarios. - Desde una perspectiva teórica, existe la posibilidad de crear un mercado de derivados que tenga como subyacente activos de naturaleza inmobiliaria. - Sin actividad económica, el proceso urbanístico y arquitectónico carecerá finalmente de sentido y tenderá a desaparecer. No obstante, son las innovaciones tecnológicas, a nivel de producto y proceso, las principales causantes del impulso de la actividad económica. - A pesar de lo expresado en los documentos urbanísticos internacionales, la transformación del urbanismo y la arquitectura dependen principalmente de la actividad económica y la tecnología. En un segundo nivel, la inversión y la financiación condicionan y definen el urbanismo y la arquitectura, incluso a nivel de proyecto si se pretende su materialización. En base al desarrollo previo, el objetivo fundamental de esta tesis doctoral ha sido demostrar que las decisiones de financiación y de inversión tienen una importancia capital y determinan la configuración de los activos inmobiliario, del urbanismo y la arquitectura, por lo que deben ser tenidas en cuenta no sólo en su materialización sino incluso en la propia concepción del proceso creativo. ABSTRACT The present dissertation aims to show that real estate financing and investment decisions in Spain play a predominant role in structuring urban development and architectural solutions. The issues addressed to support that contention include: - As a preliminary study, the situation of the real estate industry in Spain and its relationship to the financial sector in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. - The methods used to analyse and select investments and their application to investment projects, by type of real estate asset. - Appraisal of certain financial institutions’ real estate asset holdings. - Characteristics of financial institution and real estate company corporate management. - Sourcing funds for financing urban development and architecture through real estate investment trusts and the real estate market. - Present nation-wide regulations on landed property in Spain as a raw material for the real estate industry. - Residential building construction and the real estate market in the present economic context. - The possibility of creating a real estate asset-based derivatives market in Spain - The impact of economic activity, through investment and financing, on real estate assets, urban development and architecture. The aforementioned issues are addressed systematically and methodically in this dissertation, which is divided into three major units: investment, financing, and impact on urban development and architecture. The conclusions drawn are summarised below. - The financial crisis that began in 2008 has induced the collapse of the Spanish real estate industry and spawned a new perception of the nature of real estate assets. The real estate industry is dependent upon the financial sector, in particular on bank loans. - The Spanish real estate industry also depends on and is related to European monetary policy: Spain’s adherence to the single currency ushered in a thorough overhaul of its real estate industry. - Investment analysis and selection methods constitute highly suitable tools for project evaluation and ranking. Nonetheless, inasmuch as their practical implementation is subject to a series of limitations and difficulties, they should not be thought able to deliver a single irrefutable solution. - Real estate asset appraisal is a mainstay to the rightful application of funds. - Real estate asset investments can be made directly or indirectly. The latter approach is heavily influenced by the financial innovations forthcoming in recent years. - Investment trusts and the mortgage market are key institutions able to raise substantial funding, thereby driving and financing urban development and architecture. - Spain’s complex and changing legal provisions on land management are an obstacle to urban development and architecture. - Since the 2008 crisis, real estate assets have behaved much like other assets in terms of rising and falling prices. In the present economic context, speculation is indivisible from real estate assets. - Theoretically speaking, a derivatives market with real estate holdings as the underlying assets lies within the realm of possibility. - In the absence of economic activity, urban development and architecture are senseless pursuits and tend to disappear. Technological innovation in products and processes are the main drivers of economic activity. - Despite the opinion expressed in international papers on the subject, the transformation of urban development and architecture depend primarily on economic activity and technology. In a second dimension, investment and financing condition and define urban development and architecture, even at the design level for projects aspiring to actual construction. Pursuant to the foregoing, the primary aim of this dissertation is to show that financial and investment decisions are of cardinal importance and determine the structure of real estate assets, urban development and architecture. They must consequently be borne in mind not only in connection with implementation, but also with conceptual design and the creative process itself. I

Spectrum redistribution for cognitive radios using discriminatory spectrum double auction

With the reformation of spectrum policy and the development of cognitive radio, secondary users will be allowed to access spectrums licensed to primary users. Spectrum auctions can facilitate this secondary spectrum access in a market-driven way. To design an efficient auction framework, we first study the supply and demand pressures and the competitive equilibrium of the secondary spectrum market, considering the spectrum reusability. In well-designed auctions, competition among participants should lead to the competitive equilibrium according to the traditional economic point of view. Then, a discriminatory price spectrum double auction framework is proposed for this market. In this framework, rational participants compete with each other by using bidding prices, and their profits are guaranteed to be non-negative. A near-optimal heuristic algorithm is also proposed to solve the auction clearing problem of the proposed framework efficiently. Experimental results verify the efficiency of the proposed auction clearing algorithm and demonstrate that competition among secondary users and primary users can lead to the competitive equilibrium during auction iterations using the proposed auction framework. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Anatomy and lessons of the global financial crisis. Is US consumption financed by Chinese savings?

Savings and investments in the American money market by emerging countries, primarily China, financed the excessive consumption of the United States in the early 2000s, which indirectly led to a global financial crisis. The crisis started from the real estate mortgage market. Such balance disrupting processes began on the American financial market which contradicted all previously known equilibrium theories of every school of economics. Economics has yet to come up with models or empirical theories for this new disequilibrium. This is why the outbreak of the crisis could not be prevented or at least predicted. The question is, to what extent can existing market theories, calculation methods and the latest financial products be held responsible for the new situation. This paper studies the influence of the efficient market and modern portfolio theory, as well as Li’s copula function on the American investment market. Naturally, the issues of moral risks and greed, credit ratings and shareholder control, limited liability and market regulations are aspects, which cannot be ignored. In summary, the author outlines the potential alternative measures that could be applied to prevent a new crisis, defines the new directions of economic research and draws the conclusion for the Hungarian economic policy.

The symbolic, socio-economic and exchange value of Imperial German and National Socialist medals and badges, 1701 to the present

This thesis examines the manufacture, use, exchange (including gift exchange), collecting and commodification of German medals and badges from the early 18th century until the present-day, with particular attention being given to the symbols that were deployed by the National Socialist German Workers’ Party (NSDAP) between 1919 and 1945. It does so by focusing in particular on the construction of value through insignia, and how such badges and their symbolic and monetary value changed over time. In order to achieve this, the thesis adopts a chronological structure, which encompasses the creation of Prussia in 1701, the Napoleonic wars and the increased democratisation of military awards such as the Iron Cross during the Great War. The collapse of the Kaiserreich in 1918 was the major factor that led to the creation of the NSDAP under the eventual strangle-hold of Hitler, a fundamentally racist and anti-Semitic movement that continued the German tradition of awarding and wearing badges. The traditional symbols of Imperial Germany, such as the eagle, were then infused with the swastika, an emblem that was meant to signify anti-Semitism, thus creating a hybrid identity. This combination was then replicated en-masse, and eventually eclipsed all the symbols that had possessed symbolic significance in Germany’s past. After Hitler was appointed Chancellor in 1933, millions of medals and badges were produced in an effort to create a racially based “People’s Community”, but the steel and iron that were required for munitions eventually led to substitute materials being utilised and developed in order to manufacture millions of politically oriented badges. The Second World War unleashed Nazi terror across Europe, and the conscripts and volunteers who took part in this fight for living-space were rewarded with medals that were modelled on those that had been instituted during Imperial times. The colonial conquest and occupation of the East by the Wehrmacht, the Order Police and the Waffen-SS surpassed the brutality of former wars that finally culminated in the Holocaust, and some of these horrific crimes and the perpetrators of them were perversely rewarded with medals and badges. Despite Nazism being thoroughly discredited, many of the Allied soldiers who occupied Germany took part in the age-old practice of obtaining trophies of war, which reconfigured the meaning of Nazi badges as souvenirs, and began the process of their increased commodification on an emerging secondary collectors’ market. In order to analyse the dynamics of this market, a “basket” of badges is examined that enables a discussion of the role that aesthetics, scarcity and authenticity have in determining the price of the artefacts. In summary, this thesis demonstrates how the symbolic, socio-economic and exchange value of German military and political medals and badges has changed substantially over time, provides a stimulus for scholars to conduct research in this under-developed area, and encourages collectors to investigate the artefacts that they collect in a more historically contextualised manner.

Diversificación, la clave del éxito de Constructora Colpatria

El siguiente documento tiene como finalidad enseñarle al lector cómo una de las constructoras líderes del sector en Colombia, Constructora Colpatria, se ha visto involucrada en la toma de ciertas decisiones estratégicas, las cuales han llevado a la compañía a conseguir una diversificación en diferentes áreas de negocio y un proceso de internacionalización en países como México y Perú. La principal razón de estos cambios que ha tenido la Constructora Colpatria, es básicamente un problema que surge hace un poco más de 20 años. Hacia la década de los 90 se presentó una crisis financiera que tuvo su origen en el mercado hipotecario, desde ese entonces, el sector construcción se ha visto involucrado en un fenómeno que es comúnmente conocido como burbuja inmobiliaria, este término se refiere a la subida injustificada y exagerada de los precios de los inmuebles o de los bienes raíces muy por encima del precio real de venta. En el contexto de estrategia, el proyecto se va a encaminar por el lado de las decisiones y el manejo que se le ha dado por parte de la empresa a la problemática que ha presentado el sector construcción a lo largo de los últimos años. Por medio de diferentes métodos de investigación, que serán explicados más adelante, se quiere evaluar y conocer como esta empresa ha logrado conseguir un alto nivel de competitividad y cómo se ha posicionado en los primeros puestos en el sector construcción en Colombia.

Investing Online: Concerns about the Evolving Use of the Internet as an Investment Tool in the Secondary Market Context

La croissance dramatique du commerce électronique des titres cache un grand potentiel pour les investisseurs, de même que pour l’industrie des valeurs mobilières en général. Prenant en considération ses risques particuliers, les autorités réglementaires vivent un défi important face à l’Internet en tant que nouveau moyen d’investir. Néanmoins, malgré l’évolution technologique, les objectifs fondamentaux et l’approche des autorités réglementaires restent similaires à ce qui se produit présentement. Cet article analyse l’impact de l’Internet sur le commerce des valeurs mobilières en se concentrant sur les problèmes soulevés par l’utilisation de ce nouveau moyen de communication dans le contexte du marché secondaire. Par conséquent, son objectif est de dresser le portrait des plaintes typiques des investisseurs, de même que celui des activités frauduleuses en valeurs mobilières propres au cyberespace. L’auteur fait une synthèse des développements récents en analysant l’approche des autorités réglementaires, les études doctrinales, la jurisprudence et les cas administratifs. L'auteure désire remercier la professeure Raymonde Crête pour ses précieux commentaires et conseils.

The secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States market evolution and product valuation

In this work we discuss the secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States of America. First, we give an overview of the life settlement market: how it came into existence, its growth prospects and the ethical issues it arises. Secondly, we discuss the characteristics of the different life insurance products present in the market and describe how life settlements are originated. Life settlement transactions tend to be long and complex transactions that require the involvement of a number of parties. Also, a direct investment into life insurance policies is fraught with a number of practical issues and entails risks that are not directly related to longevity. This may reduce the efficiency of a direct investment in physical policies. For these reasons, a synthetic longevity market has evolved. The number of parties involved in a synthetic longevity transaction is typically smaller and the broker-dealer transferring the longevity exposure will be retaining most or all of the risks a physical investment entails. Finally, we describe the main methods used in the market to evaluate life settlement investments and the role of life expectancy providers.