Life expectancy, educational attainment, and fertility choice

This paper explores the role of mortality as a determinant of educational attainment and fertility, both during the demographic transition and after its completion. Two main points distinguish our analysis from the previous ones. Together with the investments of parents in the human capital of children, traditional in the fertility literature, we introduce investments of adult individuals (parents) in their own education, which ultimately determines productivity in both the goods and household sectors. Second, we let adult longevity affect the way parents value each individual child. Increases in adult longevity or reductions in child mortality eventually raise the investments in adult education. Together with the higher utility derived from each child, this tilts the quality-quantity trade off towards less and better educated children, and increases the growth rate of the economy. This setup can explain both the demographic transition and the recent behavior of fertility in “post-transition” countries. Evidence from historical experiences of demographic transition, and from the recent behavior of fertility, education, and growth generally supports the predictions of the model.

Less advanced sectors in the Latin American fertility transition

Includes bibliography

Population, ageing and development

Includes bibliography

Population, social equity and changing production patterns

Includes bibliography

THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF A COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ON DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES IN HIMALAYAN INDIAN VILLAGES

A community development program operating in the mountains of North India was studied to assess its potential effects on mortality, fertility and migration patterns in the community which it served. The development program operated in Jaunpur Block, Tehri-Garhwal District, Uttar Pradesh State. Two comparable villages in the district were studied. The development program had been working in one for two years, and the other was completely untouched by the program.^ Since not enough time had elapsed since the beginning of the development program's work for any effects on demographic patterns to be visable in Jaunpur Block, this study looked to attitudes of village residents as indicators of future demographic trends. Existing demographic patterns and their interrelationship with socio-religious customs were examined in the test village. A questionnaire was then administered to ascertain attitudinal differences between the residents of the test village and the control village.^ The primary work of the community development program was to train women as village health workers. The results of the attitudinal comparison of the residents of the two villages showed a marked difference in attitudes relating to the position of women in society. The data showed a higher esteem for women in the test village than in the control village, and it is argued that this difference may be attributable to the work of the development program.^ Predicting future demographic trends in Jaunpur Block on the basis of the observed difference in villagers' attitudes toward the status of women is speculatory. Jaunpur Block appears to be in the demographic stage of pre-transition, maintaining relatively high rates of both mortality and fertility. Based on demographic transition theory the next significant change in demographic patterns in Jaunpur is predicted to be a decline in mortality, and an increase in the status of women is unrelated to this prediction.^ The community development program which was studied terminated unexpectedly during the time of this study. A case study of the program's final months is presented, and speculation on the future course of demographic trends in Jaunpur Block is related to the possible alternatives for future development in the area. ^

The role of migration in urban transition : studies of the relationship between migration and modernisation for Brisbane and Stockholm

Wilbur Zelinsky formulated a Hypothesis of Mobility Transition in 1971,in which he tried to relate all aspects of mobility to the Demographic Transition and modernisation. This dissertation applies the theoretical framework, proposed by Zelinsky and extended to encompass a family of transitions, to understand migration patterns of city regions. The two city regions, Brisbane and Stockholm, are selected as case studies, representing important city regions of similar size, but drawn from contrasting historical settings. A comparison of the case studies with the theoretical framework aims to determine how the relative contributions of net migration, the source areas of migrants, and the migration intensity change with modernisation. In addition, the research also aims to identify aspects of modernisation affecting migration. These aspects of migration are analysed with a "historical approach" and a "multivariate approach". An extensive investigation into the city regions' historical background provides the source, from which evidence for a relationship between migration and modernisation is extracted. With this historical approach, similarities and differences in migration patterns are identified. The other research approach analyse multivariate data, from the last two decades, on migration flows and modernisation. Correlations between migration and key aspects of modernisation are tested with multivariate regression, based on an alternative version of a spatial interaction model. The project demonstrates that the changing functions of cities and the structural modernisation are influential on migration. Similar patterns are found, regarding the relative contributions of net migration and natural increase to population growth. The research finds links between these changes in the relative contribution of net migration and demographic modernisation. The findings on variations in urban and rural source areas of migrants to city regions do not contradict the expected pattern, but data limitations prevent definite conclusion to be drawn. The assessment of variations in migration intensity resulted in the expected pattern not being supported. Based on Swedish data, the hypothesised increase in migration intensity is rejected. Interactional migration data also show patterns different from those derived from the theoretical framework. The findings, from both research approaches, suggested that structural modernisation affected migration flows more than demographic modernisation. The findings lead to a formulation of hypothesised patterns for migration to city regions. The study provides an important research contribution by applying the two research approaches to city regions. It also combines the study of internal and international migration to address the research objectives within a framework of transitional change.

Perfil sociodemográfico dos idosos nas capitais do Nordeste e a mortalidade por doenças crônico-degenerativas desse segmento populacional em Natal (RN)

Population aging is a global demographic trend. This process is a reality that merits attention and importance in recent years, and cause considerable impact in terms of greater demands on the health sector, social security and special care and attention from families and society as a whole. Thus, in the context of addressing the consequences of demographic transition, population aging is characterized as a major challenge for Brazilian society. Therefore, this study was conducted in two main objectives. In the first article, variables of socioeconomic and demographic contexts were employed to identify multidimensional profiles of elderly residents in the Northeast capitals, from specific indicators from the 2010 Census information Therefore, we used the Grade of Membership Method (GoM), whose design profiles admits that an individual belongs to different degrees of relevance to multiple profiles in order to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with living conditions of the elderly in the Northeastern capitals. The second article examined the possible relationship between mortality from chronic diseases and socio-economic indicators in the elderly population, of the 137 districts in Natal, broken down by ten-year age groups (60 to 69 years, 70-79 years and 80 and over. The microdata from the Mortality Information System (SIM), was used, provided by the Health Secretariat of Christmas, and population information came from the Population Census 2010. The method refers to the Global and Local Index neighborhood logic (LISA) Moran, whose spatial distribution from the choropleth maps allowed us to analyze the mortality of the elderly by neighborhoods, according to socioeconomic and demographic indicators, according to the presence of special significance. In the first article, the results show the identification of three extreme profiles. The Profile 1 which is characterized by median socioeconomic status and contributes 35.5% of elderly residents in the area considered. The profile 2 which brings together seniors with low socioeconomic status characteristics, with a percentage of 24.8% of cases. And the Profile 3 composing elderly with features that reveal better socioeconomic conditions, about 29.7% of the elderly. Overall, the results point to poor living conditions represented by the definition of these profiles, mainly expressed by the results observed in more than half of the northeastern elderly experience a situation of social vulnerability given the large percentage that makes up the Profile 1 and Profile 2, adding 60% of the elderly. In the second article, the results show a higher proportion of elderly concentrated in the neighborhoods of higher socioeconomic status, such as Petrópolis and LagoaSeca. Mortality rates, according to the causes of death and standardized by the empirical Bayesian method were distributed locally as follows: Neoplasms (Reis Santos, New Discovery, New Town, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Hypertensive diseases (Blue Lagoon, Potengi, Redinha, Reis Santos, Riverside, Lagoa Nova, Grass Soft, Neópolis and Ponta Negra); Acute Myocardial Infarction (Northeast, Guarapes and grass Soft); Cerebrovascular diseases (Petrópolis and Mother Luiza); Pneumonia (Ribeira, Praia do Meio, New Discovery, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Chronic Diseases of the Lower Way Airlines (Igapó, Northeast and Thursdays). The present findings at work may contribute to other studies on the subject and development of specific policies for the elderly.

Perfil sociodemográfico dos idosos nas capitais do Nordeste e a mortalidade por doenças crônico-degenerativas desse segmento populacional em Natal (RN)

Population aging is a global demographic trend. This process is a reality that merits attention and importance in recent years, and cause considerable impact in terms of greater demands on the health sector, social security and special care and attention from families and society as a whole. Thus, in the context of addressing the consequences of demographic transition, population aging is characterized as a major challenge for Brazilian society. Therefore, this study was conducted in two main objectives. In the first article, variables of socioeconomic and demographic contexts were employed to identify multidimensional profiles of elderly residents in the Northeast capitals, from specific indicators from the 2010 Census information Therefore, we used the Grade of Membership Method (GoM), whose design profiles admits that an individual belongs to different degrees of relevance to multiple profiles in order to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with living conditions of the elderly in the Northeastern capitals. The second article examined the possible relationship between mortality from chronic diseases and socio-economic indicators in the elderly population, of the 137 districts in Natal, broken down by ten-year age groups (60 to 69 years, 70-79 years and 80 and over. The microdata from the Mortality Information System (SIM), was used, provided by the Health Secretariat of Christmas, and population information came from the Population Census 2010. The method refers to the Global and Local Index neighborhood logic (LISA) Moran, whose spatial distribution from the choropleth maps allowed us to analyze the mortality of the elderly by neighborhoods, according to socioeconomic and demographic indicators, according to the presence of special significance. In the first article, the results show the identification of three extreme profiles. The Profile 1 which is characterized by median socioeconomic status and contributes 35.5% of elderly residents in the area considered. The profile 2 which brings together seniors with low socioeconomic status characteristics, with a percentage of 24.8% of cases. And the Profile 3 composing elderly with features that reveal better socioeconomic conditions, about 29.7% of the elderly. Overall, the results point to poor living conditions represented by the definition of these profiles, mainly expressed by the results observed in more than half of the northeastern elderly experience a situation of social vulnerability given the large percentage that makes up the Profile 1 and Profile 2, adding 60% of the elderly. In the second article, the results show a higher proportion of elderly concentrated in the neighborhoods of higher socioeconomic status, such as Petrópolis and LagoaSeca. Mortality rates, according to the causes of death and standardized by the empirical Bayesian method were distributed locally as follows: Neoplasms (Reis Santos, New Discovery, New Town, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Hypertensive diseases (Blue Lagoon, Potengi, Redinha, Reis Santos, Riverside, Lagoa Nova, Grass Soft, Neópolis and Ponta Negra); Acute Myocardial Infarction (Northeast, Guarapes and grass Soft); Cerebrovascular diseases (Petrópolis and Mother Luiza); Pneumonia (Ribeira, Praia do Meio, New Discovery, Grass Soft and Ponta Negra); Chronic Diseases of the Lower Way Airlines (Igapó, Northeast and Thursdays). The present findings at work may contribute to other studies on the subject and development of specific policies for the elderly.

Age-Specific Fertility Dynamics: Sub-Saharan African Fertility in a Global Context

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Violência contra idosos: uma questão nova?

O envelhecimento da população mundial é um fato concreto e de conhecimento público. O Brasil inicia seu processo de transição demográfica seguindo o padrão mundial: o aumento do número de idosos com possibilidade de atingir elevadas faixas etárias, o que traz a necessidade de pesquisas nesse campo, devido à demanda apresentada por essa nova parcela da população. A questão da violência doméstica contra idosos tem se ampliado e sugere necessidade de maior campo de investigação nessa área, dado o risco suposto ao qual essa população mais idosa está submetida. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar os estudos relacionados ao tema já realizados no Brasil e em diferentes países, com enfoque epidemiológico. O trabalho apresenta diversos pontos de abordagem da violência contra idosos, considerando questões relacionadas à cultura do envelhecimento, ações de políticas públicas, atuação de equipes de saúde, definição do termo abordado, aspectos legais e éticos da violência contra o idoso. Tal estudo permite ao pesquisador analisar os diferentes aspectos que envolvem a temática, demonstrando a necessidade de pesquisas específicas direcionadas ao tema.

Novas perspectivas na gestão do sistema de saúde da Espanha

Ao longo dos últimos vinte e cinco anos, a organização do sistema de saúde na Espanha vem adotando diversas medidas que reorientaram seu gerenciamento, melhoraram sua eficiência e aprimoraram seu sistema de financiamento, resultado de profundas reformas e da introdução de novos instrumentos de gestão. Este artigo é resultado de uma análise documental que objetivou descrever a trajetória de conformação do sistema de saúde espanhol e sua organização na contemporaneidade. Apresenta alguns determinantes históricos que tornaram possíveis as reformas no setor sanitário, como a descentralização para o nível das Comunidades Autônomas, a incorporação de mecanismos de coordenação e a integração e o financiamento dos novos e distintos formatos organizativos coexistentes no país. Além disso, identifica desafios que emergem no cenário atual do Sistema Nacional de Saúde, como o fenômeno da imigração, o avançado processo de transição demográfica, a crescente demanda por melhorias na qualidade da atenção e de incorporação tecnológica. Todos esses fatores influem na sustentabilidade do sistema, o que motivou a criação de mais um espaço para estabelecimentos de consensos sobre o papel fundamental do sistema sanitário para o Estado de Bem-Estar espanhol.

Fatores associados à necessidade subjetiva de tratamento odontológico em idosos brasileiros

A transição demográfica pela qual o Brasil vem passando nos últimos anos produz como efeito um fenômeno mundialmente conhecido como envelhecimento populacional. Dessa forma, o objetivo deste estudo foi conhecer os fatores relacionados à necessidade de tratamento odontológico percebida por idosos brasileiros. Foi realizado um aprofundamento dos resultados encontrados no levantamento epidemiológico nacional de saúde bucal de 2003. O tamanho total da amostra foi de 5.349 indivíduos. Modelos de regressão de Poisson foram realizadas para identificar as variáveis individuais envolvidas na autopercepção de necessidade de tratamento odontológico. As variáveis associadas à necessidade subjetiva de tratamento odontológico foram diferentes para idosos edêntulos e não edêntulos. Estes achados são importantes para o planejamento da oferta de serviços de saúde bucal para a população, fornecendo uma estimativa sobre os principais problemas que estes indivíduos demandam e quantos necessitariam de atendimento.

Liquid polymorphism, order-disorder transitions and anomalous behavior: A Monte Carlo study of the Bell-Lavis model for water

The Bell-Lavis model for liquid water is investigated through numerical simulations. The lattice-gas model on a triangular lattice presents orientational states and is known to present a highly bonded low density phase and a loosely bonded high density phase. We show that the model liquid-liquid transition is continuous, in contradiction with mean-field results on the Husimi cactus and from the cluster variational method. We define an order parameter which allows interpretation of the transition as an order-disorder transition of the bond network. Our results indicate that the order-disorder transition is in the Ising universality class. Previous proposal of an Ehrenfest second order transition is discarded. A detailed investigation of anomalous properties has also been undertaken. The line of density maxima in the HDL phase is stabilized by fluctuations, absent in the mean-field solution. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3253297]

Evolu????o recente e alguns determinantes da prote????o social dos idosos na Am??rica Latina e no Brasil

A exist??ncia de um sistema de prote????o social aos idosos, com ampla cobertura, ?? extremamente importante para prevenir o aumento da pobreza e da desigualdade. Na aus??ncia de tal sistema, e frente a transforma????es demogr??ficas e da estrutura familiar presentes em grande parte dos pa??ses da Am??rica Latina, haver?? riscos crescentes de que tanto o Brasil, como outros pa??ses da regi??o, sofram com problemas de insufici??ncia de renda entre as pessoas com idade mais avan??ada. Dado esse contexto, este artigo avalia a situa????o atual e as perspectivas de prote????o dos idosos na Am??rica Latino Americano e Caribenho de Demografia (Celade/Cepal) e em revis??o de literatura sobre o tema. As an??lises indicaram que o aumento do n??vel de prote????o social na regi??o parece depender de formas de financiamento n??o baseadas exclusivamente em contribui????es monet??rias individuais, de modo que seja poss??vel incorporar aqueles grupos incapazes de manter contribui????es regulares para os regimes de Previd??ncia.

O isolamento no Hospital Colônia Pedro Fontes, Itanhenga/ES e a caracterização da população do Educandário Alzira Bley no período de 1937 a 1979

Caracteriza e analisa a população do Educandário, com as informações provenientes de uma fonte de dados documental e histórica contida nos dois livros de registros do Educandário e seus arquivos fotográficos. As informações sobre as 3.432 pessoas compõem um banco de dados que foi construído durante a realização desta pesquisa e as fotografias foram digitalizadas. O Educandário Alzira Bley, localiza-se na BR 101 - km 9, bairro de Itanhenga - Cariacica/ES. No estudo foram realizadas entrevistas semiestruturadas com funcionários e ex-internos do Educandário, que deram vida e movimento às análises dos gráficos e tabelas elaborados a partir do banco de dados. Para o embasamento teórico do estudo da população são empregados conceitos pertinentes à transição demográfica e à transição epidemiológica, às migrações forçadas, às redes migratórias e às características da população (sexo, idade, cor, origem e suas variações) que forneceram os elementos para a análise do estado da população em diferentes momentos históricos. A Geografia Histórica completa os referenciais teóricos desta investigação, pois muitas características geográficas requerem estudos históricos para uma explicação satisfatória de como chegaram ao que são hoje. As fotografias, os depoimentos e livros de registros do Educandário propiciaram a caracterização da população que passou e/ou viveu no Educandário Alzira Bley ao longo do período das internações compulsórias no Hospital Colônia Pedro Fontes (1937-1979). Com a realização desta investigação chegamos às seguintes conclusões: a) cada geração é vítima do conhecimento científico do seu tempo; b) a transição demográfica encontrava-se em sua primeira fase nos meados do século XX, e os índices elevados de mortalidade e de fecundidade eram observados na população estudada; c) a transição epidemiológica, também em curso no Espírito Santo era caracterizada por elevada incidência das doenças infectocontagiosas, dentre as quais a hanseníase era ainda uma doença sem cura. d) o isolamento dos hansenianos em hospitais colônias, bem como seus filhos em preventórios foram movimentos de migração forçada; e) a internação compulsória dos hansenianos em hospitais colônias desencadeava uma migração em rede de familiares e demais parentes e amigos que pudessem estar com a doença.