Benthic macrofauna and habitat monitoring on the Continental Shelf of the northeastern United States: I. Biomass

Information on long-term temporal variability of and trends in benthic community-structure variables, such as biomass, is needed to estimate the range of normal variability in comparison with the effects of environmental change or disturbance. Fishery resource distribution and population growth will be influenced by such variability. This study examines benthic macrofaunal biomass and related data collected annually between 1978 and 1985 at 27 sites on the continental shelf of the northwestern Atlantic, from North Carolina to the southern Gulf of Maine. The study was expanded at several sites with data from other studies collected at the same sites prior to 1978. Results indicate that although there was interannual and seasonal variability, as expected, biomass levels over the study period showed few clear trends. Sites exhibiting trends were either in pollution-stressed coastal areas or influenced by the population dynamics of one or a few species, especially echinoderms. (PDF file contains 34 pages.)

Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

Links between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability. However, it is unclear how ENSO has responded to external forcing, particularly orbitally induced changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle during the Holocene. Here we present a reconstruction of seasonal and interannual surface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from a network of high-resolution coral and mollusc records that span discrete intervals of the Holocene. We identify several intervals of reduced variance in the 2 to 7 yr ENSO band that are not in phase with orbital changes in equatorial insolation, with a notable 64% reduction between 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. We compare the reconstructed ENSO variance and seasonal cycle with that simulated by nine climate models that include orbital forcing, and find that the models do not capture the timing or amplitude of ENSO variability, nor the mid-Holocene increase in seasonality seen in the observations; moreover, a simulated inverse relationship between the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperatures is not found in our reconstructions. We conclude that the tropical Pacific climate is highly variable and subject to millennial scale quiescent periods. These periods harbour no simple link to orbital forcing, and are not adequately simulated by the current generation of models.

Intra- and interannual variability in seagrass carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes from south Florida, a preliminary study

δ13C and δ15N values were determined for the seagrassThalassia testudinum at four permanent seagrass monitoring stations in southFlorida, USA, through a quarterly sampling program over 3-years (1996–1998). All sites are seagrass beds with water depths of less than 6 m. Two sites are located on the Florida Bay side of the Florida Keys, and the other two sites are on the Atlantic side. The data analyzed over the 3 year study period display unique patterns associated with seasonal changes in primary productivity and potentially changes in the N and C pools. The mean carbon and nitrogenisotope values of T. testudinum from all four stations vary from −7.2 to −10.4‰ and 1.1 to 2.2‰, respectively. However, certain stations displayed anomalously depleted nitrogenisotope values (as low as −1.2‰). These values may indicate that biogeochemical processes like N fixation, ammonification and denitrification cause temporal changes in the isotopic composition of the source DIN. Both δ13C and δ15N values displayed seasonal enrichment-depletion patterns, with maximum enrichment occurring during the summer to early fall. The intra-annual variations of δ13C values from the different stations ranged from about 1 to 3.5‰; whereas variations in δ15N ranged from about 1 to 4.9‰. Certain sites showed a positive relationship between isotope values and productivity. These data indicate δ13C values display a high degree of seasonal variability as related to changes in productivity. δ15N values show clear intra-annual variations, but the observed changes do not necessarily follow a distinct seasonal cycle, indicating that changes in DIN will need further investigation.

Seasonal dynamics and operational monitoring of hedgerow olive tree transpiration in response to applied water

We used 2012 sap flow measurements to assess the seasonal dynamics of daily plant transpiration (ETc) in a high-density olive orchard (Olea europaea L. cv. ‘Arbequina’) with a well-watered (HI) control treatment A to supply 100 % of the crop water needs, and a moderately (MI) watered treatment B that replaced 70% of crop needs. To assure that treatment A was well-watered, we compared field daily ETc values against ETc obtained with the Penman-Monteith (PM) combination equation incorporating the Orgaz et al. (2007) bulk daily canopy conductance (gc) model, validated for our non-limiting conditions. We then tested the hypothesis of indirectly monitoring olive ETc from readily available vegetation index (VI) and ground-based plant water stress indicator. In the process we used the FAO56 dual crop coefficient (Kc) approach. For the HI olive trees we defined Kcb as the basal transpiration coefficient, and we related Kcb to remotely sensed Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) through a Kcb-SAVI functional relationship. For the MI treatment, we defined the actual transpiration ETc as the product of Kcb and the stress reduction coefficient Ks obtained as the ratio of actual to crop ETc, and we correlated Ks with MI midday stem water potential (ψst) values through a Ks-ψ functional relationship. Operational monitoring of ETc was then implemented with the ETc = Kcb(SAVI)Ks(ψ)ETo relationship stemmed from the FAO56 approach and validated taking as inputs collected SAVI and ψst data reporting to year 2011. Low validation error (6%) and high goodness-of-fit of prediction were observed (R2 = 0.94, RSME = 0.2 mm day-1, P = 0.0015), allowing to consider that under field conditions it is possible to predict ETc values for our hedgerow olive orchards if SAVI and water potential (ψst) values are known.

Factors influencing seasonal and monthly changes in the group size of chital or axis deer in southern India

Chital or axis deer (Axis axis) form fluid groups that change in size temporally and in relation to habitat. Predictions of hypotheses relating animal density, rainfall, habitat structure, and breeding seasonality, to changes in chital group size were assessed simultaneously using multiple regression models of monthly data collected over a 2 yr period in Guindy National Park, in southern India. Over 2,700 detections of chital groups were made during four seasons in three habitats (forest, scrubland and grassland). In scrubland and grassland, chital group size was positively related to animal density, which increased with rainfall. This suggests that in these habitats, chital density increases in relation to food availability, and group sizes increase due to higher encounter rate and fusion of groups. The density of chital in forest was inversely related to rainfall, but positively to the number of fruiting tree species and availability of fallen litter, their forage in this habitat. There was little change in mean group size in the forest, although chital density more than doubled during the dry season and summer. Dispersion of food items or the closed nature of the forest may preclude formation of larger groups. At low densities, group sizes in all three habitats were similar. Group sizes increased with chital density in scrubland and grassland, but more rapidly in the latter—leading to a positive relationship between openness and mean group size at higher densities. It is not clear, however, that this relationship is solely because of the influence of habitat structure. The rutting index (monthly percentage of adult males in hard antler) was positively related to mean group size in forest and scrubland, probably reflecting the increase in group size due to solitary males joining with females during the rut. The fission-fusion system of group formation in chital is thus interactively influenced by several factors. Aspects that need further study, such as interannual variability, are highlighted.

Seasonal Climatologies and Variability of Eastern Tropical Pacific Surface Waters

Interannual variability caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) is analogous to seasonal variability of comparable magnitude. Climatological spatial patterns and seasonal variability of physical variables that may affect the ETP ecosystem are presented and discussed. Surface temperature, surface salinity, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth, thermocline strength, and surface dynamic height were derived from bathythermograph, hydrocast, and CTD data. Surface current velocity, divergence, and upwelling velocity were derived from ship drift reports. Surface wind velocity, wind stress, wind divergence, wind stress curl, and Ekman pumping velocity were derived from gridded pseudostress data obtained from Florida State University. Seasonal maps of these variables, and their deviations from the annual mean, show different patterns of variation in Equatorial (S°S-SON) and Tropical Surface Water (SOlS0N). Seasonal shifts in the trade winds, which affect the strength of equatorial upwelling and the North Equatorial Countercurrent, cause seasonal variations in most variables. Seasonal and interannual variability of surface temperature, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth and wind stress were quantified. Surface temperature, mixed layer depth and thermocline depth, but not local wind stress, are less variable in Tropical Surface Water than in Equatorial Surface Water. Seasonal and interannual variability are close to equal in most of the ETP, within factors of 2 or less. (PDF file contains 70 pages.)

Seasonal water quality monitoring in the Klamath River estuary, 1991-1994

The California Department of Fish and Game's Natural Stocks Assessment Project (NSAP) collected water quality data at high tides on a monthly basis from February 1991 to October 1994, and during low tides from March 1992 to June 1994 in the Klamath River estuary to describe water quality conditions. NSAP collected data on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, salinity, depth of saltwedge, and Klamath River flow. Klamath River flows ranged from 44.5 cubic meters per second (1570 cfs) in August 1994 to 3832.2 cubic meters per second (135,315 cfs) in March 1993. Saltwater was present in the estuary primarily in the summer and early fall and generally extended 2 to 3 miles upstream. Surface water temperatures ranged from 6-8° C in the winter to 20-24° C in the summer. Summer water temperatures within the saltwedge were generally 5 to 8° C cooler than the surface water temperature. Dissolved oxygen in the estuary was generally greater than 6 to 7 ppm year-round. A sand berm formed at the mouth of the river each year in the late summer or early fall which raised the water level in the estuary and reduced tidal fluctuation so that the Klamath estuary became essentially a lagoon. I hypothesize the formation of the sand berm may increase the production of the estuary and help provide favorable conditions for rearing juvenile chinook salmon.

Regional and seasonal patterns of epipelagic fish assemblages from the central California Current

The coastal Pacific Ocean off northern and central California encompasses the strongest seasonal upwelling zone in the California Current ecosystem. Headlands and bays here generate complex circulation features and confer unusual oceanographic complexity. We sampled the coastal epipelagic fish community of this region with a surface trawl in the summer and fall of 2000–05 to assess patterns of spatial and temporal community structure. Fifty-three species of fish were captured in 218 hauls at 34 fixed stations, with clupeiform species dominating. To examine spatial patterns, samples were grouped by location relative to a prominent headland at Point Reyes and the resulting two regions, north coast and Gulf of the Farallones, were plotted by using nonmetric multidimensional scaling. Seasonal and interannual patterns were also examined, and representative species were identified for each distinct community. Seven oceanographic variables measured concurrently with trawling were plotted by principal components analysis and tested for correlation with biotic patterns. We found significant differences in community structure by region, year, and season, but no interaction among main effects. Significant differences in oceanographic conditions mirrored the biotic patterns, and a match between biotic and hydrographic structure was detected. Dissimilarity between assemblages was mostly the result of differences in abundance and frequency of occurrence of about twelve common species. Community patterns were best described by a subset of hydrographic variables, including water depth, distance from shore, and any one of several correlated variables associated with upwelling intensity. Rather than discrete communities with clear borders and distinct member species, we found gradients in community structure and identified stations with similar fish communities by region and by proximity to features such as the San Francisco Bay.

Temperature and biomass influences on interannual changes in CO2 exchange in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Three years of eddy covariance measurements were used to characterize the seasonal and interannual variability of the CO2 fluxes above an alpine meadow (3250 m a.s.l.) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. This alpine meadow was a weak sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net ecosystem production (NEP) of 78.5, 91.7, and 192.5 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in 2002, 2003, and 2004, respectively. The prominent, high NEP in 2004 resulted from the combination of high gross primary production (GPP) and low ecosystem respiration (R-e) during the growing season. The period of net absorption of CO2 in 2004, 179 days, was 10 days longer than that in 2002 and 5 days longer than that in 2003. Moreover, the date on which the mean air temperature first exceeded 5.0 degrees C was 10 days earlier in 2004 (DOY110) than in 2002 or 2003. This date agrees well with that on which the green aboveground biomass (Green AGB) started to increase. The relationship between light-use efficiency and Green AGB was similar among the three years. In 2002, however, earlier senescence possibly caused low autumn GPP, and thus the annual NEP, to be lower. The low summertime R-e in 2004 was apparently caused by lower soil temperatures and the relatively lower temperature dependence of R-e in comparison with the other years. These results suggest that (1) the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau plays a potentially significant role in global carbon sequestration, because alpine meadow covers about one-third of this vast plateau, and (2) the annual NEP in the alpine meadow was comprehensively controlled by the temperature environment, including its effect on biomass growth.

Ocean Net Heat Flux Influences Seasonal to Interannual Patterns of Plankton Abundance

Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r=-0.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season.

Seasonality and interannual variability of the European Slope Current from 20 years of altimeter data compared with in situ measurements

The European Slope Current (SC) is a major section of the warm poleward flow from the Atlantic to the Arctic, which also moderates the exchange of heat, salt, nutrients and carbon between the deep ocean and the European shelf seas. The mean structure of the geostrophic flow, seasonality, interannual variability and long-term trend of SC are appraised with an unprecedented continuous 20-year satellite altimeter dataset. Comparisons with long term in situ data showed a maximum correlation of r2=0.51 between altimeter and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), with similar results for drogued buoy data. Mean geostrophic currents were appraised more comprehensively than previous attempts, and the paths of 4 branches of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and positions of 5 eddies in the region were derived quantitatively. A consistent seasonal cycle in the flow of the SC was found at all 8 sections along the European shelf slope, with maximum poleward flow in the winter and minimum in the summer. The seasonal difference in the altimetry current speed amounted to ~8-10 cm s-1 at the northern sections, but only ~5 cm s-1 on the Bay of Biscay slopes. This extended altimeter dataset indicates significant regional and seasonal variations, and has revealed new insights into the interannual variability of the SC. It is shown that there is a peak poleward flow at most positions along a ~2000 km stretch of the continental slope from Portugal to Scotland during 1995-1997, but this did not clearly relate to the extreme negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the winter of 1995-1996. The speed of the SC exhibited a long term decreasing trend of ~1% per year. By contrast the NAC showed no significant trend over the 20-year period. Major changes in the NAC occurred three times, and these changes followed decreases in the NAO index.