Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Rapid Volume Loss from Two East Greenland Outlet Glaciers Quantified Using Repeat Stereo Satellite Imagery

The coastal portions of Kangerdlugssuaq and Helheim glaciers in southeast Greenland lost at least 51 +/- 8 km(-3) yr(-1) of ice between 2001-2006 due to thinning and retreat, according to an analysis of sequential digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from stereo ASTER satellite imagery. The dominant contribution to this ice loss was dynamic thinning caused by the acceleration in flow of both glaciers. Peak rates of change, including thinning rates of similar to 90 m yr(-1), coincided with the rapid increases in flow speed. Extrapolation of the measured data to the ice divides yields an estimated combined catchment volume loss of similar to 122 +/- 30 km(-3) yr(-1), which accounts for half the total mass loss from the ice sheet reported in recent studies. These catchment-wide volume losses contributed similar to 0.31 +/- 0.07 mm yr(-1) to global sea level rise over the 5-year observation period with the coastal regions alone contributing at least 0.1 +/- 0.02 mm yr(-1).

Facies distribution in CRP sediment cores from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Clasts from the Cape Roberts Project cores CRP-2/2A and CRP-3 provide indications of glacially influenced depositional environments in Oligocene and Miocene strata in the western Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica. CRP-2/2A is interpreted to represent strongly glacially influenced, unconformity bound depositional sequences produced by repeated advance and retreat of floating and grounded ice across the shelf. A similar interpretation is extended to the upper 330 meters of the CRP-3 core, but the lower part of the core records shallow marine deposition with significantly less glacial influence. Clast shape analysis from selected coarse-grained facies throughout the cored interval indicates that most clasts are glacially sourced, with little distinction between diamictite and conglomeratic facies. Three dimensional clast fabric analysis from units immediately above sequence boundaries generally display weak or random fabrics and do not suggest that grounded ice actually reached the drillsite at these intervals. Striated and outsized clasts present in fine-grained lithofacies throughout the cores provide further evidence of sub-glacially transported sediment and iceberg rafting. The distribution of these striated and out-sized clasts indicate that a significant glacial influence persisted through most of the time represented by the cores with glaciers actively calving at sea-level introducing ice-berg rafted glacial debris even in the earliest Oligocene.

Facies investigations on sediment core CRP-3 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

The Cenozoic Victoria Land Basin (VLB) stratigraphic section penetrated by CRP-3 is mostly of Early Oligocene age. It contains an array of lithofacies comprising fine-grained mudrocks, interlaminated and interbedded mudrocks/sandstones, mud-rich and mud-poor sandstones, conglomerates and diamctites that are together interpreted as the products of shallow marine to possibly non-marine environments of deposition, affected by the periodic advance and retreat of tidewater glaciers. This lithofacies assemblage can be readily rationalised using the facies scheme designed originally for CRP-2/2A, and published previously. The uppermost 330 metres below sea floor (mbsf) shows a cyclical arrangement of lithofacies also similar to that recognised throughout CRP-2/2A, and interpreted to reflect cyclical variations in relative sea-level driven by ice volume fluctuations ('Motif A'). Between 330 and 480 mbsf, a series of less clearly cyclical units, generally fining-upward but nonetheless incorporating a significant subset of the facies assemblage, has been identified and noted in the Initial Report as 'Motif B' Below 480 mbsf, the section is arranged into a repetitive succession of fining-upward units, each of which comprises dolerite clast conglomerate at the base passing upward into relatively thick intervals of sandstones. The cycles present down 480 mbsf are defined as sequences, each interpreted to record cyclical variation of relative sea-level. The thickness distribution of sequences in CRP-3 provides some insights into the geological variables controlling sediment accumulation in the Early Oligocene section. The uppermost part of the section in CRP-3 comprises two or three thick, complete sequences that show a broadly symmetrical arrangement of lithofacies (similar to Sequences 9-11 in CRP-2/2A). This suggests a period of relatively rapid tectonic subsidence, which allowed preservation of the complete facies cycle. Below Sequence 3, however, is a considerable interval of thin, incomplete and erosionally truncated sequences (4-23), which incorporates both the remainder of Motif A sequences and all Motif B sequences recognised. The thinner and more truncated sequences suggest sediment accumulation under conditions of reduced accommodation, and given the lack of evidence for glacial conditions (see Powell et al., this volume) tends to argue for a period of reduced tectonic subsidence. The section below 480 mbsf consists of a series of fining-upward, conglomerate to sandstone intervals which cannot be readily interpreted in terms of relative sea-level change. A relatively mudrock-rich interval above the basal conglomerate/breccia (782-762 mbsf) may record initial flooding of the basin during early rift subsidence. The lithostratigraphy summarised above has been linked to seismic reflection data using depth conversion techniques (Henrys et al., this volume). The three uppermost reflectors ('o', 'p' and 'q') correlate to the package of thick sequences 1-3, and several deeper reflectors can also be correlated to sequence boundaries. The package of thick Sequences 1-3 shows a sheet-like cross-sectional geometry on seismic reflection lines, unlike the similar package recognised in CRP-2/2A.

Facies analysis on sediment core CRP-3 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Cape Roberts Project drill core 3 (CRP-3) was obtained from Roberts ridge, a sea-floor high located at 77°S, 12 km offshore from Cape Roberts in western McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. The recovered core is about 939 m long and comprises strata dated as being early Oligocene (possibly latest Eocene) in age, resting unconformably on ~116 m of basement rocks consisting of Palaeozoic Beacon Supergroup sediments. The core includes ten facies commonly occurring in five major associations that are repeated in particular sequences throughout the core and which are interpreted as representing different depositional environments through time. Depositional systems inferred to be represented in the succession include: outer shelf, inner shelf, nearshore to shoreface each under iceberg influence, deltaic and/or grounding-line fan, and ice proximal-ice marginal-subglacial (mass flow/rainout diamictite/subglacial till) singly or in combination. The record is taken to represent the initial talus/alluvial fan setting of a glaciated rift margin adjacent to the block-uplifted Transantarctic Mountains. Development of a deltaic succession upcore was probably associated with the formation of palaeo-Mackay valley with temperate glaciers in its headwaters. At that stage glaciation was intense enough to support glaciers ending in the sea elsewhere along the coast, but a local glacier was fluctuating down to the sea by the time the youngest part of CRP-3 was being deposited. Changes in palaeoenvironmental interpretations in this youngest part of the core are used to estimate relative glacial proximity to the drillsite through time. These inferred glacial fluctuations are compared with the global d180 and Mg/Ca curves to evaluate the potential of glacial fluctuations on Antarctica for influencing these records of global change. Although the comparisons are tentative at present, the records do have similarities, but there are also some differences that require further evaluation.

Geochemistry of minerals in CRP sediment cores from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Sixty-four volcanic chists, sandstones and tephras between 5.95 and 618.19 meters below sea floor (mbsf) in the Cape Roberts Project cores 2 and 2A cores (CRP-2/2A) were examined for Cenozoic and Mesozoic volcanic components, using optical and Scanning Electron Microscopy. Minerals and glass shards in a selection of samples were analysed by electron microprobe fined with an EDAX detector. Laser-Ablation ICP-Mass-Spectrometry (ICP-MS) was used to determine rare earth elements and 14 additional trace elements in glass shards, pyroxenes and feldspars in order to pin-point the onset of McMurdo Volcanic Group (MVG) activity in the stratigraphic column. Pumices in tephra layers of peralkaline phonolite composition in Unit 7.2 -between 108 and 114 mbsf - were also analysed for trace elements by ICP-MS. This tephra unit is not reworked and its isotopic age (21.44 ± 0.05 Ma) is the age of deposition. The height of the eruptive column responsible for the deposition of the tephra was probably less than 8 km; the source was local, probably within 30 km from the drill site. Phonolite of unit 7.2 of CRP-2/2A has no direct petrogenetic relation with the peralkaline trachyte in the tephra-enriched layer of CRP-1 at 116.55 mbsf. Volcanic clasts and sand grains (glass shards, aegirine-augite, anorthoclase) related to Cenozoic activity of MVG were observed only starting from Unit 9.8, where they are dated at 24.22 ± 0.06 Ma at c. 280 mbsf. In this unit the lowest- occurring basaltic glass shard is found at 297.54 mbsf. Sampled McMurdo volcanics are generally vesicular and vary in composition from alkali basalt to trachyte and peralkaline phonolite. By contrast, below 320 mbsf, aphyric or slightly-porphyritic volcanic clasts become more abundant but they are all non-vesiculated, pigeconite and ilmenite-bearing basalts and dolerite of tholeiitic affinity. These rocks are considered to be related to lava flows and associated intrusions of Jurassic age (Kirkpatrick basalts and Ferrar dolerite). As in CRP-1, McMurdo volcanics appear to derive from a variety of lithologics. Besides glaciers, a dominant role of wind transportation from exposed volcanic rocks may be inferred from the contemporary occurrence of glass shards of different compositions at depths above 297.54 mbsf. These data confirm that the onset of magmatic activity in southern Victoria Land is considerably delayed (by about 24 Ma) with respect to northern Victoria Land.

Investigation of Quaternary foraminifera in sediment core CRP-1 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Foraminifera are examined in twenty-six samples from a 44 metre succession of Quaternary glacial sediments recovered from the CRP-1 drillhole on Roberts Ridge, southwestern Ross Sea, Antarctica. In situ marine assemblages were documented in at least three of the six lithostratigraphic units, and it is likely that the remaining three interbedded diamicton units are also marine in origin. Peak foraminiferal diversities are documented in Unit 3.1 (73 species) and Unit 2.2 (32 species). Calcareous benthics dominate the assemblages, but may be accompanied by abundant occurrences of the planktonic Neogloboquadrina pachyderma. Low diversity agglutinated faunas appear in the uppermost strata of Units 4.1 and 2.2. A close relationship between lithofacics and foraminiferal biofacies points to marine environments that alternated between proximity to and distance from active glaciers and iceshelf fronts, with associated variations in salinity, sea-surface ice cover and the levels of rainout from debris-laden ice.

(Table 2) Chemical composition of ice-rafted brecciated crystalline schist and biotite-garnet crystalline schist from the Kara Sea

Composition and distribution.of ice-rafted coarse debris from the Kara Sea bottom were investigated. This material was obtained on 42 stations in Cruise 49 of R/V Dmitry Mendeleev by Sigsby trawls, box corers, grabs, and gravity corers. Existence of two main petrographic provinces is suggested: (1) West Kara and (2) East Kara. They differ in composition and sources of debris material. It is supposed that debris was transported mainly by floating ice. In Upper Pleistocene time rafting by glaciers and icebergs was also very possible.

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios of cores from the Bering Sea

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios (d13C and d15N) of organic matter were measured in three sediment cores from deep basins of the Bering Sea to investigate past changes in surface nutrient conditions. For surface water reconstructions, hemipelagic layers in the cores were distinguished from turbidite layers (on the basis of their sedimentary structures and 14C ages) and analyzed for isotopic studies. Although d13C profiles may have been affected by diagenesis, both d15N and d13C values showed common positive anomalies during the last deglaciation. We explain these anomalies as reflecting suppressed vertical mixing and low nutrient concentrations in surface waters caused by injection of meltwater from alpine glaciers around the Bering Sea.

Surface water properties, phytoplankton composition and photosynthesis rates of Amundsen Sea sites

The phytoplankton community composition and productivity in waters of the Amundsen Sea and surrounding sea ice zone were characterized with respect to iron (Fe) input from melting glaciers. High Fe input from glaciers such as the Pine Island Glacier, and the Dotson and Crosson ice shelves resulted in dense phytoplankton blooms in surface waters of Pine Island Bay, Pine Island Polynya, and Amundsen Polynya. Phytoplankton biomass distribution was the opposite of the distribution of dissolved Fe (DFe), confirming the uptake of glacial DFe in surface waters by phytoplankton. Phytoplankton biomass in the polynyas ranged from 0.6 to 14 µg Chl a / L, with lower biomass at glacier sites where strong upwelling of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water from beneath glacier tongues was observed. Phytoplankton blooms in the polynyas were dominated by the haptophyte Phaeocystis antarctica, whereas the phytoplankton community in the sea ice zone was a mix of P. antarctica and diatoms, resembling the species distribution in the Ross Sea. Water column productivity based on photosynthesis versus irradiance characteristics averaged 3.00 g C /m**2/d in polynya sites, which was approximately twice as high as in the sea ice zone. The highest water column productivity was observed in the Pine Island Polynya, where both thermally and salinity stratified waters resulted in a shallow surface mixed layer with high phytoplankton biomass. In contrast, new production based on NO3 uptake was similar between different polynya sites, where a deeper UML in the weakly, thermally stratified Pine Island Bay resulted in deeper NO3 removal, thereby offsetting the lower productivity at the surface. These are the first in situ observations that confirm satellite observations of high phytoplankton biomass and productivity in the Amundsen Sea. Moreover, the high phytoplankton productivity as a result of glacial input of DFe is the first evidence that melting glaciers have the potential to increase phytoplankton productivity and thereby CO2 uptake, resulting in a small negative feedback to anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Geochemical composition of surface snow, ice and debris from glaciers in Norway, Nepal and New Zealand

Alpine glacier samples were collected in four contrasting regions to measure supraglacial dust and debris geochemical composition. A total of 70 surface glacier ice, snow and debris samples were collected in 2009 and 2010 in Svalbard, Norway, Nepal and New Zealand. Trace elemental abundances in snow and ice samples were measured via inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Supraglacial debris mineral, bulk oxide and trace element composition were determined via X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRF). A total of 45 elements and 10 oxide compound abundances are reported. The uniform data collection procedure, analytical measurement methods and geochemical comparison techniques are used to evaluate supraglacial dust and debris composition variability in the contrasting glacier study regions. Elemental abundances revealed sea salt aerosol and metal enrichment in Svalbard, low levels of crustal dust and marine influences to southern Norway, high crustal dust and anthropogenic enrichment in the Khumbu Himalayas, and sulfur and metals attributed to quiescent degassing and volcanic activity in northern New Zealand. Rare earth element and Al/Ti elemental ratios demonstrated distinct provenance of particulates in each study region. Ca/S elemental ratio data showed seasonal denudation in Svalbard and Norway. Ablation season atmospheric particulate transport trajectories were mapped in each of the study regions and suggest provenance pathways. The in situ data presented provides first order glacier surface geochemical variability as measured from four diverse alpine glacier regions. This geochemical surface glacier data is relevant to glaciologic ablation rate understanding as well as satellite atmospheric and land-surface mapping techniques currently in development.

Magnetic susceptibility of deep-sea cores from the Scotia Sea

We studied two deep-sea cores from the Scotia Sea to reconstruct past atmospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere and to resolve a long-standing debate on the interpretation of magnetic susceptibility (MS) records in Southern Ocean (SO) sediment. High-sedimentation sites MD07-3134 (0.2 - 1.2 m/kyr) and MD07-3133 (0.3 - 2 m/kyr) cover the last 92.5 kyr and 36 kyr, respectively. Both exhibit a one-to-one coupling of the MS and Ca2+ signal to the non-sea salt (nss) Ca2+ signal of the EDML ice core, clearly identifying atmospheric circulation as means of distribution. Comparison of additional proxies also excludes major influence by volcanic sources, sea-ice, icebergs, or oceanic current transport. The close resemblance of the dust proxies over the last glacial cycle, in turn, allows for the establishment of an age model of unprecedented resolution and precision for SO deep-sea sediment because atmospheric transport involves no major leads or lags. This is of particular importance because MS is routinely measured on deep-sea cores in the SO but the sediments usually lack biogenic carbonate and therefore had only limited stratigraphic control so far. Southern South America (SSA) is the likely source of eolian material because Site MD07-3133, located closer to the continent, has slightly higher MS values than Site MD07-3134, and also the MS record of Patagonian Site SALSA shows comparable variability. Patagonia was the dust source for both the Scotia Sea and East Antarctica. Dust fluxes were several times higher during glacial times, when atmospheric circulation was either stronger or shifted in latitude, sea level was lowered, shelf surfaces were exposed, and environmental conditions in SSA were dominated by glaciers and extended outwash plains. Hence, MS records of SO deep-sea sediment are reliable tracers of atmospheric circulation, allowing for chronologically-constrained reconstructions of the circum Antarctic paleoclimate history.