Nation & internation practices in decision support tools in road asset management

This document provides a review of international and national practices in investment decision support tools in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying analytic frameworks, evaluation methodologies and criteria adopted by current tools. Emphasis was also given to how current approaches support Triple Bottom Line decision-making. Benefit Cost Analysis and Multiple Criteria Analysis are principle methodologies in supporting decision-making in Road Asset Management. The complexity of the applications shows significant differences in international practices. There is continuing discussion amongst practitioners and researchers regarding to which one is more appropriate in supporting decision-making. It is suggested that the two approaches should be regarded as complementary instead of competitive means. Multiple Criteria Analysis may be particularly helpful in early stages of project development, say strategic planning. Benefit Cost Analysis is used most widely for project prioritisation and selecting the final project from amongst a set of alternatives. Benefit Cost Analysis approach is useful tool for investment decision-making from an economic perspective. An extension of the approach, which includes social and environmental externalities, is currently used in supporting Triple Bottom Line decision-making in the road sector. However, efforts should be given to several issues in the applications. First of all, there is a need to reach a degree of commonality on considering social and environmental externalities, which may be achieved by aggregating the best practices. At different decision-making level, the detail of consideration of the externalities should be different. It is intended to develop a generic framework to coordinate the range of existing practices. The standard framework will also be helpful in reducing double counting, which appears in some current practices. Cautions should also be given to the methods of determining the value of social and environmental externalities. A number of methods, such as market price, resource costs and Willingness to Pay, are found in the review. The use of unreasonable monetisation methods in some cases has discredited Benefit Cost Analysis in the eyes of decision makers and the public. Some social externalities, such as employment and regional economic impacts, are generally omitted in current practices. This is due to the lack of information and credible models. It may be appropriate to consider these externalities in qualitative forms in a Multiple Criteria Analysis. Consensus has been reached in considering noise and air pollution in international practices. However, Australia practices generally omitted these externalities. Equity is an important consideration in Road Asset Management. The considerations are either between regions, or social groups, such as income, age, gender, disable, etc. In current practice, there is not a well developed quantitative measure for equity issues. More research is needed to target this issue. Although Multiple Criteria Analysis has been used for decades, there is not a generally accepted framework in the choice of modelling methods and various externalities. The result is that different analysts are unlikely to reach consistent conclusions about a policy measure. In current practices, some favour using methods which are able to prioritise alternatives, such as Goal Programming, Goal Achievement Matrix, Analytic Hierarchy Process. The others just present various impacts to decision-makers to characterise the projects. Weighting and scoring system are critical in most Multiple Criteria Analysis. However, the processes of assessing weights and scores were criticised as highly arbitrary and subjective. It is essential that the process should be as transparent as possible. Obtaining weights and scores by consulting local communities is a common practice, but is likely to result in bias towards local interests. Interactive approach has the advantage in helping decision-makers elaborating their preferences. However, computation burden may result in lose of interests of decision-makers during the solution process of a large-scale problem, say a large state road network. Current practices tend to use cardinal or ordinal scales in measure in non-monetised externalities. Distorted valuations can occur where variables measured in physical units, are converted to scales. For example, decibels of noise converts to a scale of -4 to +4 with a linear transformation, the difference between 3 and 4 represents a far greater increase in discomfort to people than the increase from 0 to 1. It is suggested to assign different weights to individual score. Due to overlapped goals, the problem of double counting also appears in some of Multiple Criteria Analysis. The situation can be improved by carefully selecting and defining investment goals and criteria. Other issues, such as the treatment of time effect, incorporating risk and uncertainty, have been given scant attention in current practices. This report suggested establishing a common analytic framework to deal with these issues.

International practices in investment decision making in road sector

This document provides the findings of an international review of investment decision-making practices in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying the strategic objectives of agencies in road asset management, establishing and understanding criteria different organisations adopted and ascertaining the exact methodologies used by different countries and international organisations. Road assets are powerful drivers of economic development and social equity. They also have significant impacts on the natural and man-made environment. The traditional definition of asset management is “A systematic process of maintaining, upgrading and operating physical assets cost effectively. It combines engineering principles with sound business practices and economic theory and it provides tools to facilitate a more organised, logical approach to decision-making” (US Dept. of Transportation, 1999). In recent years, the concept has been broadened to cover the complexity of decision making, based on a wider variety of policy considerations as well as social and environmental issues rather than is covered by Benefit-Cost analysis and pure technical considerations. Current international practices are summarised in table 2. It was evident that Engineering-economic analysis methods are well advanced to support decision-making. A range of tools available supports performance predicting of road assets and associated cost/benefit in technical context. The need for considering triple plus one bottom line of social, environmental and economic as well as political factors in decision-making is well understood by road agencies around the world. The techniques used to incorporate these however, are limited. Most countries adopt a scoring method, a goal achievement matrix or information collected from surveys. The greater uncertainty associated with these non-quantitative factors has generally not been taken into consideration. There is a gap between the capacities of the decision-making support systems and the requirements from decision-makers to make more rational and transparent decisions. The challenges faced in developing an integrated decision making framework are both procedural and conceptual. In operational terms, the framework should be easy to be understood and employed. In philosophical terms, the framework should be able to deal with challenging issues, such as uncertainty, time frame, network effects, model changes, while integrating cost and non-cost values into the evaluation. The choice of evaluation techniques depends on the feature of the problem at hand, on the aims of the analysis, and on the underlying information base At different management levels, the complexity in considering social, environmental, economic and political factor in decision-making is different. At higher the strategic planning level, more non-cost factors are involved. The complexity also varies based on the scope of the investment proposals. Road agencies traditionally place less emphasis on evaluation of maintenance works. In some cases, social equity, safety, environmental issues have been used in maintenance project selection. However, there is not a common base for the applications.

Towards a rule-based matrix for evaluating distress mechanisms in bridges

The effective management of bridge stock involves making decisions as to when to repair, remedy, or do nothing, taking into account the financial and service life implications. Such decisions require a reliable diagnosis as to the cause of distress and an understanding of the likely future degradation. Such diagnoses are based on a combination of visual inspections, laboratory tests on samples and expert opinions. In addition, the choice of appropriate laboratory tests requires an understanding of the degradation mechanisms involved. Under these circumstances, the use of expert systems or evaluation tools developed from “realtime” case studies provides a promising solution in the absence of expert knowledge. This paper addresses the issues in bridge infrastructure management in Queensland, Australia. Bridges affected by alkali silica reaction and chloride induced corrosion have been investigated and the results presented using a mind mapping tool. The analysis highights that several levels of rules are required to assess the mechanism causing distress. The systematic development of a rule based approach is presented. An example of this application to a case study bridge has been used to demonstrate that preliminary results are satisfactory.

Towards a Rule-based matrix for evaluating distress mechanisms in bridges

One of the key issues facing public asset owners is the decision of refurbishing aged built assets. This decision requires an assessment of the “remaining service life” of the key components in a building. The remaining service life is significantly dependent upon the existing condition of the asset and future degradation patterns considering durability and functional obsolescence. Recently developed methods on Residual Service Life modelling, require sophisticated data that are not readily available. Most of the data available are in the form of reports prior to undertaking major repairs or in the form of sessional audit reports. Valuable information from these available sources can serve as bench marks for estimating the reference service life. The authors have acquired similar informations from a public asset building in Melbourne. Using these informations, the residual service life of a case study building façade has been estimated in this paper based on state-of-the-art approaches. These estimations have been evaluated against expert opinion. Though the results are encouraging it is clear that the state-of-the-art methodologies can only provide meaningful estimates provided the level and quality of data are available. This investigation resulted in the development of a new framework for maintenance that integrates the condition assessment procedures and factors influencing residual service life

Inducing shades of meaning by matrix methods : a first step towards thematic analysis of opinion

This article explores two matrix methods to induce the ``shades of meaning" (SoM) of a word. A matrix representation of a word is computed from a corpus of traces based on the given word. Non-negative Matrix Factorisation (NMF) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) compute a set of vectors corresponding to a potential shade of meaning. The two methods were evaluated based on loss of conditional entropy with respect to two sets of manually tagged data. One set reflects concepts generally appearing in text, and the second set comprises words used for investigations into word sense disambiguation. Results show that for NMF consistently outperforms SVD for inducing both SoM of general concepts as well as word senses. The problem of inducing the shades of meaning of a word is more subtle than that of word sense induction and hence relevant to thematic analysis of opinion where nuances of opinion can arise.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Botanical matrix

Botanical matrix is a graphic map produced via a process involving an initial site installation (350 m contour transect), a botanical survey and photographic documentation of species. The site is a housing subdivision at Point Henry, on the SE coast of Western Australia which is a landscape which is host the most botanically diverse vegetation found worldwide - known locally as 'kwongan'. Notoriously difficult vegetation to measure and map, kwongan is a visual 'engima', for paradoxically it appears to the lay person as visually bland and highly homogenous. There is thus is a critical need for the development of new forms of representation which overcome the barriers between the perception and reality of this botanical condition. Botanical Matrix is one result of the author's research which seeks to address this important problem.

The osteogenic differentiation of adipose tissue-derived precursor cells in A 3D scaffold/matrix environment

Abstract: This paper details an in-vitro study using human adipose tissue-derived precursor/stem cells (ADSCs) in three-dimensional (3D) tissue culture systems. ADSCs from 3 donors were seeded onto NaOH-treated medical grade polycaprolactone-tricalcium phosphate (mPCL-TCP) scaffolds with two different matrix components; fibrin glue and lyophilized collagen. ADSCs within these scaffolds were then induced to differentiate along the osteogenic lineage for a 28-day period and various assays and imaging techniques were performed at Day 1, 7, 14, 21 and 28 to assess and compare the ADSC’s adhesion, viability, proliferation, metabolism and differentiation along the osteogenic lineage when cultured in the different scaffold/matrix systems. The ADSC cells were proliferative in both collagen and fibrin mPCL-TCP scaffold systems with a consistently higher cell number (by comparing DNA amounts) in the induced group over the non-induced groups for both scaffold systems. In response to osteogenic induction, these ADSCs expressed elevated osteocalcin, alkaline phosphatase and osteonectin levels. Cells were able to proliferate within the pores of the scaffolds and form dense cellular networks after 28 days of culture and induction. The successful cultivation of osteogenic by FDM process manufactured ADSCs within a 3D matrix comprising fibrin glue or collagen, immobilized within a robust synthetic scaffold is a promising technique which should enhance their potential usage in the regenerative medicine arena, such as bone tissue engineering.

A hydrogen tethered inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases

During wound repair, the balance between matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their natural inhibitors (the TIMPs) is crucial for the normal extra cellular matrix turnover. However, the over expression of several MMPs including MMP-1, 2, 3, 8, 9 and MMP-10, combined with abnormally high levels of activation or low expression of TIMPs, may contribute to excessive degradation of connective tissue and formation of chronic ulcers. There are many groups exploring strategies for promoting wound healing involving delivery of growth factors, cells, ECM components and small molecules. Our approach for improving the balance of MMPs is not to add anything more to the wound, but instead to neutralise the over-expressed MMPs using inhibitors tethered to a bandage-like hydrogel. Our in vitro experiments using designed synthetic pseudo peptide inhibitors have been demonstrated to inhibit MMP activity in standard solutions. These inhibitors have also been tethered to polyethylene glycol hydrogels using a facile reaction between the linker unit on the inhibitor and the gel. After tethering the inhibition of MMPs diminishes to some extent and we postulate that this arises due to poor diffusion of the MMPs into the gels. When the tethered inhibitors were tested against chronic wound fluid obtained against patients we observed over 40% inhibition in proteolytic activity suggesting our approach may prove useful in rebalancing MMPs within chronic wounds.

A peptidomimetic inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases containing a tetherable linker group

Successful wound repair and normal turnover of the extracellular matrix relies on a balance between matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their natural inhibitors (the TIMPs). When over-expression of MMPs and abnormally high levels of activation or low expression of TIMPs are encountered, excessive degradation of connective tissue and the formation of chronic ulcers can occur. One strategy to rebalance MMPs and TIMPs is to use inhibitors. We have designed a synthetic pseudopeptide inhibitor with an amine linker group based on a known high-affinity peptidomimetic MMP inhibitor have demonstrated inhibition of MMP-1, -2, -3 and -9 activity in standard solutions. The inhibitor was also tethered to a polyethylene glycol hydrogel using a facile reaction between the linker unit on the inhibitor and the hydrogel precursors. After tethering, we observed inhibition of the MMPs although there was an increase in the IC50s which was attributed to poor diffusion of the MMPs into the hydrogels, reduced activity of the tethered inhibitor or incomplete incorporation of the inhibitor into the hydrogels. When the tethered inhibitors were tested against chronic wound fluid we observed significant inhibition in proteolytic activity suggesting our approach may prove useful in rebalancing MMPs within chronic wounds.

A process for the management of physical infrastructure

Physical infrastructure assets are important components of our society and our economy. They are usually designed to last for many years, are expected to be heavily used during their lifetime, carry considerable load, and are exposed to the natural environment. They are also normally major structures, and therefore present a heavy investment, requiring constant management over their life cycle to ensure that they perform as required by their owners and users. Given a complex and varied infrastructure life cycle, constraints on available resources, and continuing requirements for effectiveness and efficiency, good management of infrastructure is important. While there is often no one best management approach, the choice of options is improved by better identification and analysis of the issues, by the ability to prioritise objectives, and by a scientific approach to the analysis process. The abilities to better understand the effect of inputs in the infrastructure life cycle on results, to minimise uncertainty, and to better evaluate the effect of decisions in a complex environment, are important in allocating scarce resources and making sound decisions. Through the development of an infrastructure management modelling and analysis methodology, this thesis provides a process that assists the infrastructure manager in the analysis, prioritisation and decision making process. This is achieved through the use of practical, relatively simple tools, integrated in a modular flexible framework that aims to provide an understanding of the interactions and issues in the infrastructure management process. The methodology uses a combination of flowcharting and analysis techniques. It first charts the infrastructure management process and its underlying infrastructure life cycle through the time interaction diagram, a graphical flowcharting methodology that is an extension of methodologies for modelling data flows in information systems. This process divides the infrastructure management process over time into self contained modules that are based on a particular set of activities, the information flows between which are defined by the interfaces and relationships between them. The modular approach also permits more detailed analysis, or aggregation, as the case may be. It also forms the basis of ext~nding the infrastructure modelling and analysis process to infrastructure networks, through using individual infrastructure assets and their related projects as the basis of the network analysis process. It is recognised that the infrastructure manager is required to meet, and balance, a number of different objectives, and therefore a number of high level outcome goals for the infrastructure management process have been developed, based on common purpose or measurement scales. These goals form the basis of classifYing the larger set of multiple objectives for analysis purposes. A two stage approach that rationalises then weights objectives, using a paired comparison process, ensures that the objectives required to be met are both kept to the minimum number required and are fairly weighted. Qualitative variables are incorporated into the weighting and scoring process, utility functions being proposed where there is risk, or a trade-off situation applies. Variability is considered important in the infrastructure life cycle, the approach used being based on analytical principles but incorporating randomness in variables where required. The modular design of the process permits alternative processes to be used within particular modules, if this is considered a more appropriate way of analysis, provided boundary conditions and requirements for linkages to other modules, are met. Development and use of the methodology has highlighted a number of infrastructure life cycle issues, including data and information aspects, and consequences of change over the life cycle, as well as variability and the other matters discussed above. It has also highlighted the requirement to use judgment where required, and for organisations that own and manage infrastructure to retain intellectual knowledge regarding that infrastructure. It is considered that the methodology discussed in this thesis, which to the author's knowledge has not been developed elsewhere, may be used for the analysis of alternatives, planning, prioritisation of a number of projects, and identification of the principal issues in the infrastructure life cycle.

Cell density alters matrix accumulation in two distinct fractions and the mechanical integrity of alginate-chondrocyte constructs

Chondrocyte density in articular cartilage is known to change with the development and growth of the tissue and may play an important role in the formation of a functional extracellular matrix (ECM). The objective of this study was to determine how initial chondrocyte density in an alginate hydrogel affects the matrix composition, its distribution between the cell-associated (CM) and further removed matrix (FRM) fractions, and the tensile mechanical properties of the developing engineered cartilage. Alginate constructs containing primary bovine chondrocytes at densities of 0, 4, 16, and 64 million cells/ml were fabricated and cultured for 1 or 2 weeks, at which time structural, biochemical, and mechanical properties were analyzed. Both matrix content and distribution varied with the initial cell density. Increasing cell density resulted in an increasing content of collagen and sulfated-glycosaminoglycan (GAG) and an increasing proportion of these molecules localized in the CM. While the equilibrium tensile modulus of cell-free alginate did not change with time in culture, the constructs with highest cell density were 116% stiffer than cell-free controls after 2 weeks of culture. The equilibrium tensile modulus was positively correlated with total collagen (r2 = 0.47, p < 0.001) and GAG content (r2 = 0.68, p < 0.001), and these relationships were enhanced when analyzing only those matrix molecules in the CM fraction (r2 = 0.60 and 0.72 for collagen and GAG, respectively, each p < 0.001). Overall, the results of this study indicate that initial cell density has a considerable effect on the developing composition, structure, and function of alginate–chondrocyte constructs.