Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

User friendly guide for rehabilitation or strengthening of bridge structures using fiber reinforced polymer composites

A worldwide interest is being generated in the use of fibre reinforced polymer composites (FRP) in rehabilitation of reinforced concrete structures. As a replacement for the traditional steel plates or external post-tensioning in strengthening applications, various types of FRP plates, with their high strength to weight ratio and good resistance to corrosion, represent a class of ideal material in external retrofitting. Within the last ten years, many design guidelines have been published to provide guidance for the selection, design and installation of FRP systems for external strengthening of concrete structures. Use of these guidelines requires understanding of a number of issues pertaining to different properties and structural failure modes specific to these materials. A research initiative funded by the CRC for Construction Innovation was undertaken (primarily at RMIT) to develop a decision support tool and a user friendly guide for use of fibre reinforced polymer composites in rehabilitation of concrete structures. The user guidelines presented in this report were developed after industry consultation and a comprehensive review of the state of the art technology. The scope of the guide was mainly developed based on outcomes of two workshops with Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR). The document covers material properties, recommended construction requirements, design philosophy, flexural, shear and torsional strengthening of beams and strengthening of columns. In developing this document, the guidelines published on FIB Bulletin 14 (2002), Task group 9.3, International Federation of Structural Concrete (FIB) and American Concrete Institute Committee 440 report (2002) were consulted in conjunction with provisions of the Austroads Bridge design code (1992) and Australian Concrete Structures code AS3600 (2002). In conclusion, the user guide presents design examples covering typical strengthening scenarios.

Decision support tools for concrete infrastructure rehabilitation (using FRP composites)

This report presents a summary of the research conducted by the research team of the CRC project 2002-005-C, “Decision support tools for concrete infrastructure rehabilitation”. The project scope, objectives, significance and innovation and the research methodology is outlined in the introduction, which is followed by five chapters covering different aspects of the research completed. Major findings of a review of literature conducted covering both use of fibre reinforced polymer composites in rehabilitation of concrete bridge structures and decision support frameworks in civil infrastructure asset management is presented in chapter two. Case study of development of a strengthening scheme for the “Tenthill Creek bridge” is covered in the third chapter, which summarises the capacity assessment, traditional strengthening solution and the innovative solution using FRP composites. The fourth chapter presents the methodology for development of a user guide covering selection of materials, design and application of FRP in strengthening of concrete structures, which were demonstrated using design examples. Fifth chapter presents the methodology developed for evaluating whole of life cycle costing of treatment options for concrete bridge structures. The decision support software tool developed to compare different treatment options based on reliability based whole of life cycle costing will be briefly described in this chapter as well. The report concludes with a summary of findings and recommendations for future research.

BRITE report 2004

This document reports on an innovation survey of the Australian construction industry undertaken by the BRITE Project of the CRC for Construction Innovation in 2004. The survey sample was drawn from 3,500 businesses in the road/bridge and commercial building sectors in NSW, Vic and Qld, covering main contractors, trade contractors, consultants, suppliers and clients. One-third of this population was sampled and a response rate of 30% was achieved. The survey investigates innovation determinants in the industry, comprising various aspects of business strategy and business environment.

Final report : a software diagnostic tool for evaluating distress mechanisms in bridges exposed to aggressive environments

Durability issues of reinforced concrete construction cost millions of dollars in repair or demolition. Identification of the causes of degradation and a prediction of service life based on experience, judgement and local knowledge has limitations in addressing all the associated issues. The objective of this CRC CI research project is to develop a tool that will assist in the interpretation of the symptoms of degradation of concrete structures, estimate residual capacity and recommend cost effective solutions. This report is a documentation of the research undertaken in connection with this project. The primary focus of this research is centred on the case studies provided by Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) and Brisbane City Council (BCC). These organisations are endowed with the responsibility of managing a huge volume of bridge infrastructure in the state of Queensland, Australia. The main issue to be addressed in managing these structures is the deterioration of bridge stock leading to a reduction in service life. Other issues such as political backlash, public inconvenience, approach land acquisitions are crucial but are not within the scope of this project. It is to be noted that deterioration is accentuated by aggressive environments such as salt water, acidic or sodic soils. Carse, 2005, has noted that the road authorities need to invest their first dollars in understanding their local concretes and optimising the durability performance of structures and then look at potential remedial strategies.

Developing a consumer policy for the 21st century

In light of the Productivity Commission's inquiry into Australia's consumer policy framework and administration, this article explores three assumptions that have underpinned our consumer protection framework to date: assumptions about the benefits of competition, self-regulation, and information. It argues that the benefits can be over-stated, and do not always reflect the reality of consumer experience. The article calls for the development of an overarching framework or principles document, with a more moderated approach to competition, self-regulation and information. While the Productivity Commission's draft report has admirably dealt with many of these issues, there is scope for the proposed objectives and recommendations in the final report to reflect more consistently the disparate impact of markets and competition on consumers, and the findings of behavioural economics.

Life cycle inventory for Australian building materials

This paper discusses challenges to developers of a national Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) database on which to base assessment of building environmental impacts and a key to development of a fully integrated eco-design tool created for automated eco-efficiency assessment of commercial building design direct from 3D CAD. The scope of this database includes Australian and overseas processing burdens involved in acquiring, processing, transporting, fabricating, finishing and using metals, masonry, timber, glazing, ceramics, plastics, fittings, composites and coatings. Burdens are classified, calculated and reported for all flows of raw materials, fuels, energy and emissions to and from the air, soil and water associated with typical products and services in building construction, fitout and operation. The aggregated life cycle inventory data provides the capacity to generate environmental impact assessment reports based on accepted performance indicators. Practitioners can identify hot spots showing high environmental burdens of a proposed design and drill down to report on specific building components. They can compare assessments with case studies and operational estimates to assist in eco-efficient design of a building, fitout and operation.

Extending knowledge management across the supply chains in the construction industry : knowledge sharing in construction supply chains

Supply chain management and knowledge management have emerged as two distinct business philosophies in the last decade. Both are making rapid inroads into the construction industry. The premise of this paper is that knowledge management would make it possible for all the trading partners in a supply chain to reap benefits. Current research in knowledge management in the construction industry is generally targeting those big organisations that are main contractors. This has restricted the scope of knowledge management, and limits the benefits to a few, rather than the whole industry. If the construction industry as a whole is to prosper and improve its productivity, strategies for knowledge management strategy at the industry level must be established. This paper argues the case for extending the scope of knowledge management across the full extent of the supply chain, and attempts to identify the benefits that may arise out of sharing knowledge across the supply chain.

Interoperable Standards Development : Final Report

Since 1995 the buildingSMART International Alliance for Interoperability (buildingSMART)has developed a robust standard called the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC). IFC is an object oriented data model with related file format that has facilitated the efficient exchange of data in the development of building information models (BIM). The Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation has contributed to the international effort in the development of the IFC standard and specifically the reinforced concrete part of the latest IFC 2x3 release. Industry Foundation Classes have been endorsed by the International Standards Organisation as a Publicly Available Specification (PAS) under the ISO label ISO/PAS 16739. For more details, go to http://www.tc184- sc4.org/About_TC184-SC4/About_SC4_Standards/ The current IFC model covers the building itself to a useful level of detail. The next stage of development for the IFC standard is where the building meets the ground (terrain) and with civil and external works like pavements, retaining walls, bridges, tunnels etc. With the current focus in Australia on infrastructure projects over the next 20 years a logical extension to this standard was in the area of site and civil works. This proposal recognises that there is an existing body of work on the specification of road representation data. In particular, LandXML is recognised as also is TransXML in the broader context of transportation and CityGML in the common interfacing of city maps, buildings and roads. Examination of interfaces between IFC and these specifications is therefore within the scope of this project. That such interfaces can be developed has already been demonstrated in principle within the IFC for Geographic Information Systems (GIS) project. National road standards that are already in use should be carefully analysed and contacts established in order to gain from this knowledge. The Object Catalogue for the Road Transport Sector (OKSTRA) should be noted as an example. It is also noted that buildingSMART Norway has submitted a proposal

How do other people influence your driving speed? Exploring the 'who' and the 'how' of social influences on speeding from a qualitative perspective

Using only legal sanctions to manage the speed at which people drive ignores the potential benefits of harnessing social factors such as the influence of others. Social influences on driver speeds were explored in this qualitative examination of 67 Australian drivers. Focus group interviews with 8 driver types (young, mid-age and older males and females, and self-identified Excessive and Rare speeders) were guided by Akers’ social learning theory (Akers, 1998). Findings revealed two types of influential others: people known to the driver (passengers and parents), and unknown other drivers. Passengers were generally described as having a slowing influence on drivers: responsibility for the safety of people in the car and consideration for passenger comfort were key themes. In contrast, all but the Rare speeders reported increasing their speed when driving alone. Parental role modelling was also described. In relation to other drivers, key themes included speeding to keep up with traffic flow and perceived pressure to drive faster. This ‘pressure’ from others to ‘speed up’ was expressed in all groups and reported strategies for managing this varied. Encouragingly, examples of actual or anticipated social rewards for speeding were less common than examples of social punishments. Three main themes relating to social punishments were embarrassment, breaching the trust of others, and presenting an image of a responsible driver. Impression management and self-presentation are discussed in light of these findings. Overall, our findings indicate scope to exploit the use of social sanctions for speeding and social praise for speed limit compliance to enhance speed management strategies.

Wrapped fragments : Drapery, the eighteenth century portrait bust and the male subject

The depiction of drapery (generalised cloth as opposed to clothing) is a well-established convention of Neo-Classical sculpture and is often downplayed by art historians as of purely rhetorical value. It can be argued however that sculpted drapery has served a spectrum of expressive ends, the variety and complexity of which are well illustrated by a study of its use in portrait sculpture. For the Neo-Classical portrait bust, drapery had substantial iconographic and political meaning, signifying the new Enlightenment notions of masculine authority. Within the portrait bust, drapery also served highly strategic aesthetic purposes, alleviating the abruptness of the truncated format and the compromising visual consequences of the “cropped” body. With reference to Joseph Nollekens’ portraits of English statesman Charles James Fox and the author’s own sculptural practice, this paper analyses the Neo-Classical use of drapery to propose that rendered fabric, far from mere stylistic flourish, is a highly charged visual signifier with much scope for exploration in contemporary sculptural practice.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Respecting contractual intentions : balancing consumer expectations with the sanctity of contract in the context of standard form insurance contracts

It is the purpose of this article to examine the means curently available to judges to achieve a workable balance between providing appropriate consumer protection to signatories of standard form contractors while still retaining adequate respect for the sanctity of contract, and, based on this analysis, to determine whether a significantly greater scope of contract (re)construction is likely to become the norm in most common law jurisdictions in the coming decades.

The strategic mindset of Australian manufacturing managers : some missing links

Manufacturing managers have a measurable mindset (or frame) that structures their response to the manufacturing environment. Most importantly, this frame represents a set of assumptions about the relative prominence of concepts in the manufacturing domains, about the nature of people, and about the sensemaking processes required to understand the nature of the manufacturing environment as seen through the eyes of manufacturing managers. This paper uses work in the area of text analysis and extends the scope of a methodology that has been approached from two different directions by Carley ( Journal of Organizational Behavior , 18 (51), 533-558, 1997) and Gephart ( Journal of Organizational Behavior , 18 (51), 583-622, 1997). This methodology is termed collocate analysis. Based on the analysis of transcripts of interviews of Australian manufacturing managers mind maps of the concepts used by these managers have been constructed. From an analysis of these mind maps it is argued that strategy plays a minor role in their thinking second only to the improvement domain, whereas design and related concepts play a dominant role in their day-to-day thinking.