A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Predicting crack initiation due to ratchetting in rail heads using critical element analysis

This paper presents a strategy to predict the lifetime of rails subjected to large rolling contact loads that induce ratchetting strains in the rail head. A critical element concept is used to calculate the number of loading cycles needed for crack initiation to occur in the rail head surface. In this technique the finite element method (FEM) is used to determine the maximum equivalent ratchetting strain per load cycle, which is calculated by combining longitudinal and shear stains in the critical element. This technique builds on a previously developed critical plane concept that has been used to calculate the number of cycles to crack initiation in rolling contact fatigue under ratchetting failure conditions. The critical element concept simplifies the analytical difficulties of critical plane analysis. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used to identify the critical element in the mesh, and then the strain values of the critical element are used to calculate the ratchetting rate analytically. Finally, a ratchetting criterion is used to calculate the number of cycles to crack initiation from the ratchetting rate calculated.

Fatigue damage initiation life prediction for heterogeneous metals

In particle-strengthened metallic alloys, fatigue damage incubates at inclusion particles near the surface or at the change of geometries. Micromechanical simulation of inclusions such that the fatigue damage incubation mechanisms can be categorized. As micro-plasticity gradient field around different inclusions is different, a novel concept for nonlocal evaluation of micro-plasticity intensity is introduced. The effects of void aspects ration and spatial distributions are quantified for fatigue incubation life in the high-cycle fatigue regime. At last, these effects are integrated based on the statistical facts of inclusions to predict the fatigue life of structural components.

Community pharmacy dispensing of prescription medicine sample packs: Changing the business of medicine initiation?

Prescription medicine samples (or starter packs) are provided by pharmaceutical manufacturers to prescribing doctors as one component in the suite of marketing products used to convince them to prescribe a particular medicine [1,2]. Samples are generally newer, more expensive treatment options still covered by patent [3,4]. Safe, effective, judicious and appropriate medicine use (quality use of medicines) [5] could be enhanced by involving community pharmacists in the dispensing of starter packs. Doctors who use samples show a trend towards prescribing more expensive medicines overall [6] and also prescribe more medicines [7]. Cardiovascular health and mental health are Australian National Health Priority Areas [8] and account for approximately 30% and 17%, respectively, of annual government Pharmaceutical Benefits System (PBS) in 2006 [9]. The PBS is Australia's universal prescription subsidy scheme [9]. Antihypertensives were a major contributor to the estimated 80 000 medicine-related hospital admissions in Australia in 1999 [10] and also internationally [11,12]. The aim of this study was to pilot an alternative model for supply of free sample or starter packs of prescription medicines and ascertain if it is a viable model in daily practice.

Phenotyping cotton ovule fibre initiation with spatial statistics

Yield in cultivated cotton (Gossypium spp.) is affected by the number and distribution of fibres initiated on the seed surface but, apart from simple statistical summaries, little has been done to assess this phenotype quantitatively. Here we use two types of spatial statistics to describe and quantify differences in patterning of cotton ovule fibre initials (FI). The following five different species of Gossypium were analysed: G. hirsutum L., G. barbadense L., G. arboreum, G. raimondii Ulbrich. and G. trilobum (DC.) Skovsted. Scanning electron micrographs of FIs were taken on the day of anthesis. Cell centres for fibre and epidermal cells were digitised and analysed by spatial statistics methods appropriate for marked point processes and tessellations. Results were consistent with previously published reports of fibre number and spacing. However, it was shown that the spatial distributions of FIs in all of species examined exhibit regularity, and are not completely random as previously implied. The regular arrangement indicates FIs do not appear independently of each other and we surmise there may be some form of mutual inhibition specifying fibre-initial development. It is concluded that genetic control of FIs differs from that of stomata, another well studied plant idioblast. Since spatial statistics show clear species differences in the distribution of FIs within this genus, they provide a useful method for phenotyping cotton. © CSIRO 2007.

Cerebral regions associated with verbal response initiation, suppression and strategy use

Cerebral activation associated with performance on a novel task involving two conditions was investigated with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). In the response initiation condition, subjects nominated the general superordinate category to which each of a series of exemplars (concrete nouns) belonged. In the response suppression condition, subjects were required to nominate a general superordinate category to which each exemplar did not belong, with the instruction that they were not to nominate the same category response twice in a row. Both conditions produced distinct patterns of activation relative to an articulation control condition employing identical stimuli. When initiation and suppression conditions were directly compared, response suppression produced activation in the right frontal pole, orbital frontal cortex and anterior cingulate, left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and posterior cingulate, and bilaterally in the precuneus, visual association cortex and cerebellum. Response latencies were significantly longer in the suppression condition. Two broadly-defined strategies associated with the correct production of words during the suppression condition were a self-ordered selection from among the superordinate categories identified during the first section of the task and the generation of novel category responses. The neuroanatomical correlates of response initiation, suppression and strategy use are discussed, as are the respective roles of response suppression and strategy generation.

Fracture healing via periosteal callus formation requires macrophages for both initiation and progression of early endochondral ossification

The distribution, phenotype, and requirement of macrophages for fracture-associated inflammation and/or early anabolic progression during endochondral callus formation were investigated. A murine femoral fracture model [internally fixed using a flexible plate (MouseFix)] was used to facilitate reproducible fracture reduction. IHC demonstrated that inflammatory macrophages (F4/80+Mac-2+) were localized with initiating chondrification centers and persisted within granulation tissue at the expanding soft callus front. They were also associated with key events during soft-to-hard callus transition. Resident macrophages (F4/80+Mac-2neg), including osteal macrophages, predominated in the maturing hard callus. Macrophage Fas-induced apoptosis transgenic mice were used to induce macrophage depletion in vivo in the femoral fracture model. Callus formation was completely abolished when macrophage depletion was initiated at the time of surgery and was significantly reduced when depletion was delayed to coincide with initiation of early anabolic phase. Treatment initiating 5 days after fracture with the pro-macrophage cytokine colony stimulating factor-1 significantly enhanced soft callus formation. The data support that inflammatory macrophages were required for initiation of fracture repair, whereas both inflammatory and resident macrophages promoted anabolic mechanisms during endochondral callus formation. Overall, macrophages make substantive and prolonged contributions to fracture healing and can be targeted as a therapeutic approach for enhancing repair mechanisms. Thus, macrophages represent a viable target for the development of pro-anabolic fracture treatments with a potentially broad therapeutic window...

Dynamic initiation toughness measu~ment using double Grooved discs

Among the multitude of test specimen geometries used for dynamic fiacture toughness evaluation, the most widely uscd specimen is lhc Chavpy specimen due its simple geomclry and availability of testing machines. The standard Chatpy specimen dimensions may llOl always give plane st~ain condilions and hence, it may be necessary Io coilduct lcs/s using specimens of dillEvcnt thicknesses to establish the plane strain K~a. An axisymmct/ic specimen, on the otlaev hand would always give flow constraints l~n a nominal specimen thickness i~rcspcctive of the test matctial. The notched disk specimen pVOl)oscd by Bcrn:ud ctal. [1] for static and dynamic initiation toughness measurement although p~ovicles plain-strain conditions, the crack plopagatcs at an angle to the direction of applied load. This makes inteq~retation of the test results difficult us it ~Ccluivcs ~actial slices to be cut fiom the fractured specimen to ascertain the angle o1 crack growth and a linite element model l~)r tl);t{ pa~ticulat ctack o~icntalion.

Impact of rRNA methylations on ribosome recycling and fidelity of initiation in Escherichia coli

Ribosomal RNA (rRNA) contains a number of modified nucleosides in functionally important regions including the intersubunit bridge regions. As the activity of ribosome recycling factor (RRF) in separating the large and the small subunits of the ribosome involves disruption of intersubunit bridges, we investigated the impact of rRNA methylations on ribosome recycling. We show that deficiency of rRNA methylations, especially at positions 1518 and 1519 of 16S rRNA near the interface with the 50S subunit and in the vicinity of the IF3 binding site, adversely affects the efficiency of RRF-mediated ribosome recycling. In addition, we show that a compromise in the RRF activity affords increased initiation with a mutant tRNA(fMet) wherein the three consecutive G-C base pairs ((29)GGG(31):39CCC41), a highly conserved feature of the initiator tRNAs, were mutated to those found in the elongator tRNA(Met) ((29)UCA(31):(39)psi GA(41)). This observation has allowed us to uncover a new role of RRF as a factor that contributes to fidelity of initiator tRNA selection on the ribosome. We discuss these and earlier findings to propose that RRF plays a crucial role during all the steps of protein synthesis.

Initiation Reactions in Thermal Polymerization of Vinyl Monomers in the Molten State

Evidence of the initiation process during uncatalyzed thermal polymerization of vinyl monomers is presented. DSC studies reveal a prominent endothermic effect just before the polymerization exotherm, which is substantiated by the identification of the free radicals produced in the initiation by a quick quenching technique and subsequent detection by ESR at low temperatures.

Modelling Leaf Production and Crop Development in Maize (Zea mays L.) After Tassel Initiation Under Diverse Conditions of Temperature and Photoperiod

Prediction of the initiation, appearance and emergence of leaves is critically important to the success of simulation models of crop canopy development and some aspects of crop ontogeny. Data on leaf number and crop ontogeny were collected on five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and genetic background grown under natural and extended photoperiods, and planted on seven sowing dates from October 1993 to March 1994 at Gatton, South-east Queensland. The same temperature coefficients were established for crop ontogeny before silking, and the rates of leaf initiation, leaf tip appearance and full leaf expansion, the base, optimum and maximum temperatures for each being 8, 34 and 40 degrees C. After silking, the base temperature for ontogeny was 0 degrees C, but the optimum and maximum temperatures remained unchanged. The rates of leaf initiation, appearance of leaf tips and full leaf expansion varied in a relatively narrow range across sowing times and photoperiod treatments, with average values of 0.040 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, 0.021 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, and 0.019 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, respectively. The relationships developed in this study provided satisfactory predictions of leaf number and crop ontogeny (tassel initiation to silking, emergence to silking and silking to physiological maturity) when assessed using independent data from Gatton (South eastern Queensland), Katherine and Douglas Daly (Northern Territory), Walkamin (North Queensland) and Kununurra (Western Australia).

Tubulin synthesis and auxin-induced root initiation in phaseolus

The auxin-induced formation of roots in the hypocotyls of Phaseolus vulgaris can be prevented by treatment with actinomycin D, colchicine or cytochalasin B if applied within 40 hr of initiation. Shortly after auxin pretreatment, there is an increase in translatable messenger RNA activity. Analysis of the labelled cell-free products indicate, among other changes, a striking increase in a protein co-migrating with tubulin, in the case of RNA isolated from indolebutyric acid (IBA) pretreated hypocotyls. An increase in tubulin content in vivo can also be demonstrated on the basis of SDS-polyacrylamide gel analysis of membrane proteins and functional assays for tubulin polymerization. An increase in the synthesis of tubulin in vivo can also be demonstrated after IBA pretreatment. In addition, the auxin is also able to promote tubulin polymerization when added in vitro. It is suggested that tubulin synthesis and microtubule assembly are early events in auxin-mediated root differentiation.

Liquid phase oxidation of propionaldehyde: Kinetics of initiation step

A method of determining the rate of the initiation reaction in the liquid phase oxidation of propionaldehyde is described.