Mixture modeling for joint analysis of survival, discrete, and continuous data

Mixture modeling is commonly used to model categorical latent variables that represent subpopulations in which population membership is unknown but can be inferred from the data. In relatively recent years, the potential of finite mixture models has been applied in time-to-event data. However, the commonly used survival mixture model assumes that the effects of the covariates involved in failure times differ across latent classes, but the covariate distribution is homogeneous. The aim of this dissertation is to develop a method to examine time-to-event data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity under a framework of mixture modeling. A joint model is developed to incorporate the latent survival trajectory along with the observed information for the joint analysis of a time-to-event variable, its discrete and continuous covariates, and a latent class variable. It is assumed that the effects of covariates on survival times and the distribution of covariates vary across different latent classes. The unobservable survival trajectories are identified through estimating the probability that a subject belongs to a particular class based on observed information. We applied this method to a Hodgkin lymphoma study with long-term follow-up and observed four distinct latent classes in terms of long-term survival and distributions of prognostic factors. Our results from simulation studies and from the Hodgkin lymphoma study demonstrated the superiority of our joint model compared with the conventional survival model. This flexible inference method provides more accurate estimation and accommodates unobservable heterogeneity among individuals while taking involved interactions between covariates into consideration.^

Characterisation of the signalment, clinical and survival characteristics of 41 cats with mast cell neoplasia

Mast cell tumours (MCTs) are relatively common tumours of cats, and are the second most common cutaneous tumours in cats in the USA. While the primary splenic form of the disease is far less common, it is usually associated with more severe clinical signs. Signalment, clinical and survival characteristics of mast cell neoplasia were characterised in 41 cats. The most common tumour location was cutaneous/ subcutaneous head and trunk. Stage la was the most common tumour stage at first diagnosis (n = 20), followed by stage 4 (both stage 4a and stage 4b; n = 10). Of 22 cats that underwent excisional biopsy, mast cell neoplasia recurred in four cats during the study period. Three of the 41 cats presented with simultaneous cutaneous and either splenic or lymph node tumours. A comparison between cats with only cutaneous tumours (n = 30) and those with tumours involving the spleen or lymph nodes (n = 11) showed longer survival times for the cutaneous-only group (P = 0.031). Twelve of the 41 cats died of mast cell neoplasia during the study period. When a subgroup of cats with only cutaneous tumours (no lymph node or visceral involvement) were divided according to whether there were multiple (five or more) tumours (n = 6) or a single tumour (n = 19), cats with single tumours survived longer than those with multiple tumours (P = 0.001). Solitary cutaneous feline MCTs without spread to the lymph nodes usually manifest as benign disease with a relatively protracted course. However, multiple cutaneous tumours, recurrent tumours and primary splenic disease should receive a guarded prognosis due to the relatively short median survival times associated with these forms of the disease. (C) 2006 ESFM and AAFR Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A boat hitchhiker's guide to survival: Cabomba caroliniana desiccation resistance and survival ability

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed macrophyte that has become a serious invader. Cabomba predominantly spreads by stem fragments, in particular through unintentional transport on boat trailers ('hitch hiking'). Desiccation resistance affects the potential dispersal radius. Therefore, knowledge of maximum survival times allows predicting future dispersal. Experiments were conducted to assess desiccation resistance and survival ability of cabomba fragments under various environmental scenarios. Cabomba fragments were highly tolerant of desiccation. However, even relatively low wind speeds resulted in rapid mass loss, indicating a low survival rate of fragments exposed to air currents, such as fragments transported on a boat trailer. The experiments indicated that cabomba could survive at least 3 h of overland transport if exposed to wind. However, even small clumps of cabomba could potentially survive up to 42 h. Thus, targeting the transport of clumps of macrophytes should receive high priority in management. The high resilience of cabomba to desiccation demonstrates the risk of continuing spread. Because of the high probability of fragment viability on arrival, preventing fragment uptake on boat trailers is paramount to reduce the risk of further spread. These findings will assist improving models that predict the spread of aquatic invasive macrophytes.

The generalized log-gamma mixture model with covariates: local influence and residual analysis

In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

Efficacy of Lentivirus-mediated and MUC1 antibody-targeted VP22-TK/GCV suicide gene therapy for ovarian cancer

Transfer of the herpes simplex virus type I thymidine kinase (HSV-TK) gene into tumor cells using virus-based vectors in conjunction with ganciclovir (GCV) exposure provides a potential gene therapy strategy for the treatment of cancer. Effective gene therapy,, depends on the efficient transfer and specific targeting of therapeutic genes and their protein products to target cells. The purpose of this study was to investigate the anti-tumor effect of Lentivirus-mediated and MUC1 antibody-targeted VP22-TK/GCV suicide gene therapy in animal models. Mouse models were generated with intraperitoneal injection of human epithelial ovarian cancer cells 3AO, which are MUC1-positive. HTV-1-based lentiviral vectors carrying VP22-TK or scFv-VP22-TK were prepared. The animals were injected intraperitoneally with lentivirus containing scFv-VP22-TK, VP22-TK followed by GCV treatment. Combined treatment of lentivirus-expressed scFv-VP22-TK or VP22-TK with GCV inhibited the proliferation and prolonged survival times compared with the control vector. The survival time of animals treated with scFv-VP22-TK/GCV was significantly longer than that of animals treated with VP22-TK/GCV (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Our results suggest that MUC1 antibody-targeted VP22-TK/GCV suicide gene therapy can efficiently inhibit ovarian tumor growth and increase survival in a nude mouse model of ovarian carcinoma. These data support the development of this method for human clinical trials.

The therapeutic potential of recombinant BCG expressing the antigen S1PT in the intravesical treatment of bladder cancer

Purpose: Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) continues to be employed as the most effective immunotherapy against superficial bladder cancer. We have developed an rBCG-S1PT strain that induces a stronger cellular immune response than BCG. This preclinical study was designed to test the potential of rBCG-S1PT as an immunotherapeutic agent for intravesical bladder cancer therapy. Materials and methods: A tumor was induced in C57BL/6 mice after chemical cauterization of the bladder and inoculation of the tumor cell line MB49. Next, mice were treated by intravesical instillation with BCG, rBCG-S1PT, or PBS once a week for 4 weeks. After 35 days, the bladders were removed and weighed, Th1 (IL-2, IL-12, INOS, INF-gamma, TNF-alpha), and Th2 (IL-5, IL-6, IL-10, TGF-beta) cytokine mRNA responses in individual mice bladders were measured by quantitative real time PCR, and the viability of MB49 cells in 18-hour coculture with splenocytes from treated mice was assessed. In an equivalent experiment, animals were observed for 60 days to quantify their survival. Results: Both BCG and rBCG-S1PT immunotherapy resulted in bladder weight reduction, and rBCG-S1PT increased survival time compared with the control group. There were increases in TNF-alpha in the BCG treated group, as well as increases in TNF-alpha and IL-10 mRNA in the rBCG-S1PT group. The viability of MB49 cells cocultured with splenocytes from rBCG-S1PT-treated mice was lower than in both the BCG and control groups. Conclusions: rBCG-S1PT therapy improved outcomes and lengthened survival times. These results indicate that rBCG could serve as a useful substitute for wild-type BCG. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypertrophy and neuron loss: structural changes in sheep SCG induced by unilateral sympathectomy

Recently, superior cervical ganglionectomy has been performed to investigate a variety of scientific topics from regulation of intraocular pressure to suppression of lingual tumour growth. Despite these recent advances in our understanding of the functional mechanisms underlying superior cervical ganglion (SCG) growth and development after surgical ablation, there still exists a need for information concerning the quantitative nature of the relationships between the removed SCG and its remaining contralateral ganglion and between the remaining SCG and its modified innervation territory. To this end, using design-based stereological methods, we have investigated the structural changes induced by unilateral ganglionectomy in sheep at three distinct timepoints (2, 7 and 12 weeks) after surgery. The effects of time, and lateral (left-right) differences, were examined by two-way analyses of variance and paired t-tests. Following removal of the left SCG, the main findings were: (i) the remaining right SCG was bigger at shorter survival times, i.e. 74% at 2 weeks, 55% at 7 weeks and no increase by 12 weeks, (ii) by 7 weeks after surgery, the right SCG contained fewer neurons (no decrease at 2 weeks, 6% fewer by 7 weeks and 17% fewer by 12 weeks) and (iii) by 7 weeks, right SCG neurons were also larger and the magnitude of this increase grew substantially with time (no rise at 2 weeks, 77% by 7 weeks and 215% by 12 weeks). Interaction effects between time and ganglionectomy-induced changes were significant for SCG volume and mean perikaryal volume. These findings show that unilateral superior cervical ganglionectomy has profound effects on the contralateral ganglion. For future investigations, it would be interesting to examine the interaction between SCGs and their innervation targets after ganglionectomy. Is the ganglionectomy-induced imbalance between the sizes of innervation territories the milieu in which morphoquantitative changes, particularly changes in perikaryal volume and neuron number, occur? Mechanistically, how would those changes arise? Are there any grounds for believing in a ganglionectomy-triggered SCG cross-innervation and neuroplasticity? (C) 2011 ISDN. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Phyllodes tumors of the breast: Correlation of nucleolar organizer regions with histopathological malignancy grading, flow cytometric DNA analysis and clinical outcome

To examine whether nucleolar organizer regions detected by argyrophilia (Ag-NOR counts) can be used as a prognostic indicator in phyllodes tumors of the breast, and to compare its usefulness with that of DNA flow cytometric analysis, 28 cases of breast phyllodes tumors (including 15 benign, two borderline and 11 malignant tumors) were subjected to Ag-NOR staining and counting as well as DNA flow cytometric analysis. S-phase fraction and DNA ploidy analysis showed useful trends for improving outcome predictions in malignant phyllodes tumors. However, high Ag-NOR counts were significant in predicting survival status (P = 0.013) and reached near statistical significance in predicting survival times (P = 0.07). In predicting survival status, results for Ag-NOR counts were significantly better than those for ploidy analysis (P = 0.02) and S-phase fraction (P < 0.01). Only S-phase fraction was significantly predictive of survival times (P = 0.025). It is concluded that Ag-NOR counts and DNA flow cytometric analysis, easily performed using paraffin sections, give information that can improve predictions made by histopathological classification. Ag-NOR counts are significant in predicting survival in the presence of histopathological features of malignancy.

Murine virus contaminant of Trypanosoma cruzi experimental infection

The possibility that some virus contaminants could be altering host response to Trypanosoma cruzi experimental infection was investigated. Data obtained showed that CBA/J mice infected with stocks of parasite maintained in mice (Y1UEC) presented higher level of parasitemia and shorter survival times than those infected with a stock (Y1TC) which was also maintained in mice but had been previously passaged in cell culture. Mouse antibody production tests, performed with the filtered plasma of mice infected with Y1UEC, indicated the presence of mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) while no virus was detected when testing the plasma of Y1TC infected mice. Filtered plasma of Y1EUC infected mice was shown to contain a factor able to enhance the level of parasitemia and to reduce the mean survival time of mice challenged with 10(5) Y1TC. This factor, that could be serially passaged to naïve mice was shown to be a coronavirus by neutralization tests.

NLRP3 promotes inflammation-induced skin cancer but is dispensable for asbestos-induced mesothelioma.

Asbestos exposure can result in serious and frequently lethal diseases, including malignant mesothelioma. The host sensor for asbestos-induced inflammation is the NLRP3 inflammasome and it is widely assumed that this complex is essential for asbestos-induced cancers. Here, we report that acute interleukin-1β production and recruitment of immune cells into peritoneal cavity were significantly decreased in the NLRP3-deficient mice after the administration of asbestos. However, NLRP3-deficient mice displayed a similar incidence of malignant mesothelioma and survival times as wild-type mice. Thus, early inflammatory reactions triggered by asbestos are NLRP3-dependent, but NLRP3 is not critical in the chronic development of asbestos-induced mesothelioma. Notably, in a two-stage carcinogenesis-induced papilloma model, NLRP3-deficient mice showed a resistance phenotype in two different strain backgrounds, suggesting a tumour-promoting role of NLRP3 in certain chemically-induced cancer types.

Esophagogastric cancer: integration of targeted therapies into systemic chemotherapy.

Although combination chemotherapy has been shown to be more effective than single agents in advanced esophagogastric cancer, the better response rates have not fulfilled their promise as overall survival times from best combination still range between 8 to 11 months. So far, the development of targeted therapies stays somewhat behind their integration into treatment concepts compared to other gastrointestinal diseases. Thus, the review summarizes the recent advances in the development of targeted therapies in advanced esophagogastric cancer. The majority of agents tested were angiogenesis inhibitors or agents targeting the epidermal growth factor receptors EGFR1 and HER2. For trastuzumab and bevacizumab, phase III trial results have been presented recently. While addition of trastuzumab to cisplatin/5-fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy results in a clinically relevant and statistically significant survival benefit in HER 2+ patients, the benefit of the addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy was not significant. Thus, all patients with metastatic disease should be tested for HER-2 status in the tumor. Trastuzumab in combination with cisplatin/5-fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy is the new standard of care for patients with HER2-positive advanced gastric cancer.

Docetaxel, cisplatin, and fluorouracil; docetaxel and cisplatin; and epirubicin, cisplatin, and fluorouracil as systemic treatment for advanced gastric carcinoma: a randomized phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

PURPOSE: This randomized phase II trial evaluated two docetaxel-based regimens to see which would be most promising according to overall response rate (ORR) for comparison in a phase III trial with epirubicin-cisplatin-fluorouracil (ECF) as first-line advanced gastric cancer therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Chemotherapy-naïve patients with measurable unresectable and/or metastatic gastric carcinoma, a performance status <or= 1, and adequate hematologic, hepatic, and renal function randomly received <or= eight 3-weekly cycles of ECF (epirubicin 50 mg/m(2) on day 1, cisplatin 60 mg/m(2) on day 1, and fluorouracil [FU] 200 mg/m(2)/d on days 1 to 21), TC (docetaxel initially 85 mg/m(2) on day 1 [later reduced to 75 mg/m(2) as a result of toxicity] and cisplatin 75 mg/m(2) on day 1), or TCF (TC plus FU 300 mg/m(2)/d on days 1 to 14). Study objectives included response (primary), survival, toxicity, and quality of life (QOL). RESULTS: ORR was 25.0% (95% CI, 13% to 41%) for ECF, 18.5% (95% CI, 9% to 34%) for TC, and 36.6% (95% CI, 23% to 53%) for TCF (n = 119). Median overall survival times were 8.3, 11.0, and 10.4 months for ECF, TC, and TCF, respectively. Toxicity was acceptable, with one toxic death (TC arm). Grade 3 or 4 neutropenia occurred in more treatment cycles with docetaxel (TC, 49%; TCF, 57%; ECF, 34%). Global health status/QOL substantially improved with ECF and remained similar to baseline with both docetaxel regimens. CONCLUSION: Time to response and ORR favor TCF over TC for further evaluation, particularly in the neoadjuvant setting. A trend towards increased myelosuppression and infectious complications with TCF versus TC or ECF was observed.

Local moderate magnetically induced hyperthermia using an implant formed in situ in a mouse tumor model.

Purpose: We investigate a new heat delivery technique for the local treatment of solid tumors. The technique involves injecting a formulation that solidifies to form an implant in situ. This implant entraps superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (SPIONs) embedded in silica microbeads for magnetically induced moderate hyperthermia. Particle entrapment prevents phagocytosis and distant migration of SPIONs. The implant can be repeatedly heated by magnetic induction. Methods: We evaluated heating and treatment efficacies by means of thermometry and survival studies in nude mice carrying subcutaneous human colocarcinomas. At day 1, we injected the formulation into the tumor. At day 2, a single 20-min hyperthermia treatment was delivered by 141-kHz magnetic induction using field strengths of 9 to 12 mT under thermometry. Results: SPIONs embedded in silica microbeads were effectively confined within the implant at the injection site. Heat-induced necro-apoptosis was assessed by histology on day 3. On average, 12 mT resulted in tumor temperature of 47.8 degrees C, and over 70% tumor necrosis that correlated to the heat dose (AUC = 282 degrees C.min). In contrast, a 9-mT field strength induced tumoral temperature of 40 degrees C (AUC = 131 degrees C.min) without morphologically identifiable necrosis. Survival after treatment with 10.5 or 12 mT fields was significantly improved compared to non-implanted and implanted controls. Median survival times were 27 and 37 days versus 12 and 21 days respectively. Conclusion: Five of eleven mice (45%) of the 12 mT group survived one year without any tumor recurrence, holding promise for tumor therapy using magnetically induced moderate hyperthermia through injectable implants.

Primary cutaneous posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorders in solid organ transplant recipients: a multicenter European case series.

Primary cutaneous posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLD) are rare. This retrospective, multicenter study of 35 cases aimed to better describe this entity. Cases were (re)-classified according to the WHO-EORTC or the WHO 2008 classifications of lymphomas. Median interval between first transplantation and diagnosis was 85 months. Fifty-seven percent of patients had a kidney transplant. Twenty-four cases (68.6%) were classified as primary cutaneous T cell lymphoma (CTCL) and 11 (31.4%) as primary cutaneous B cell PTLD. Mycosis fungoides (MF) was the most common (50%) CTCL subtype. Ten (90.9%) cutaneous B cell PTLD cases were classified as EBV-associated B cell lymphoproliferations (including one plasmablastic lymphoma and one lymphomatoid granulomatosis) and one as diffuse large B cell lymphoma, other, that was EBV-negative. Sixteen (45.7%) patients died after a median follow-up of 19.5 months (11 [68.8%] with CTCL [6 of whom had CD30(+) lymphoproliferative disorders (LPD)] and 5 [31.2%] with cutaneous B cell PTLD. Median survival times for all patients, CTCL and cutaneous B cell PTLD subgroups were 93, 93, and 112 months, respectively. Survival rates for MF were higher than those for CD30(+) LPD. The spectrum of primary CTCL in organ transplant recipients (OTR) is similar to that in the general population. The prognosis of posttransplant primary cutaneous CD30(+) LPD is worse than posttransplant MF and than its counterpart in the immunocompetent population. EBV-associated cutaneous B cell LPD predominates in OTR.