El Nino-Southern Oscillation

This 20th anniversary edition of PAGES news explores the elusive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from a paleo-perspective. The initiative for this special section came out of a 2011 PMIP workshop. In a mini section, a newly introduced format in the PAGES newsletter, four articles on data assimilation address methods of combining observations and model simulations. Finally, this newsletter also features several reports on the 2013 2nd Young Scientists Meeting held in Goa, India.

Power Oscillation index - A tool for investigation into unbalance phenomena in the distribution Networks

Unbalance and harmonics are two major distortions in the three-phase distribution systems. In this paper an investigation into unbalance phenomena in the distribution networks using instantaneous space vector theory, is presented. Power oscillation index (POI) and effective power factor (PFe) are calculated in the network nodes for several unbalance loading conditions. For system analysis a general power flow algorithm for three-phase four-wire radial distribution networks, based on backward-forward technique, is applied. Results obtained from several case studies using medium and low voltage test feeder with unbalanced load, are presented and discussed. © 2010 Praise Worthy Prize S.r.l. - All rights reserved.

The Effects of Joint ENSO-Antarctic Oscillation Forcing on the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Stable oxygen analyses and snow accumulation rates from snow pits sampled in the McMurdo Dry Valleys have been used to reconstruct variations in summer temperature and moisture availability over the last four decades. The temperature data show a common interannual variability, with strong regional warmings occurring especially in 1984/85, 1995/96 and 1990/91 and profound coolings during 1977/78, 1983/84, 1988/89, 1993/94, and 1996/97. Annual snow accumulation shows a larger variance between sites, but the early 1970s, 1984, 1997, and to a lesser degree 1990/91 are characterized overall by wetter conditions, while the early and late 1980s show low snow accumulation values. Comparison of the reconstructed and measured summer temperatures with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) yield statistically significant correlations, which improve when phaserelationships are considered. A distinct change in the phase relationship of the correlation is observed, with the SOI-AAO leading over the temperature records by one year before, and lagging by one year after 1988. These results suggest that over the last two decades summer temperatures are influenced by opposing El Niho Southern Oscillation and AAO forcings and support previous studies that identified a change in the Tropical-Antarctic teleconnection between the 1980s and 1990s.

Sea surface temperature oscillations in southern Okinawa Trough during last 2700 years from ODP Hole 195-1202B

Most of the temperature reconstructions for the past two millennia are based on proxy data from various sites on land. Here we present a bidecadal resolution record of sea surface temperature (SST) in Southern Okinawa Trough for the past ca. 2700 years by analyzing tetraether lipids of planktonic archaea in the ODP Hole 1202B, a site under the strong influence of Kuroshio Current and East Asian monsoon. The reconstructed SST anomalies generally coincided with previously reported late Holocene climate events, including the Roman Warm Period, Sui-Tang dynasty Warm Period, Medieval Warm Period, Current Warm Period, Dark Age Cold Period and Little Ice Age. However, the Medieval Warm Period usually thought to be a historical analogue for the Current Warm Period has a mean SST of 0.6-0.8°C lower than that of the Roman Warm Period and Sui-Tang dynasty Warm Period. Despite an increase since 1850 AD, the mean SST in the 20th century is still within the range of natural variability during the past 2700 years. A close correlation of SST in Southern Okinawa Trough with air temperature in East China, intensity of East Asian monsoon and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation index has been attributed to the fluctuations in solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation.

El Niño and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO): The largest signal in interannual climate variation

El Niño and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal in the interannual variation of ocean-atmosphere system. It is mainly a tropical event but its impact is global. ENSO has been drawing great scientific attention in many international research programs. There has been an observational system for the tropical ocean, and scientists have known the climatologies of the upper ocean, developed some theories about the ENSO cycle, and established coupled ocean-atmosphere models to give encouraging predictions of ENSO for a 1-year lead. However, questions remain about the physical mechanisms for the ENSO cycle and its irregularity, ENSO-monsoon interactions, long-term variation of ENSO, and increasing the predictive skill of ENSO and its related climate variations.

Dahlak coral d18O record (DGII) from the southern Red Sea

Coral palaeoclimatic studies are under way at many sites throughout the wet tropics. However, arid environments have received less attention. Here we report a high-resolution, 63 yr record of coral d18O and d13C extracted from a Porites colony from the Dahlak Archipelago, off the Eritrean coast, in the southern Red Sea. The annual cycles of the coral d18O and d13C are inversely related while their inter-annual variations show a strong positive correlation, with similar inter-decadal trends. Inter-annual variations in coral d18O show a relatively weak correlation with the southern Red Sea SST, but are strongly correlated with the Indian Ocean SST, especially on the decadal time-scale. The range of the inter-annual variations in the coral d18O is high compared to changes in local SST, due to the amplifying effect of simultaneous changes in water isotopic composition. Due to this amplification of the climate signal the coral provides a better indication of regional oceangraphic behaviour than the local SST record. The norrtheast monsoon signal in the coral d18O dominates the mean annual signal and shows the best correlation with the instrumental data sets. It appears that variations in the coral d18O are controlled mainly by variations in the intensity of surface water influx from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea during the winter northeast monsoon. Of particular significance is that the decadal time-scale variations in the coral skeletal d18O are closely correlated with both the Indian Ocean SST and with variations in the Pacific-based Southern Oscillation index. That is, isotopically light coral skeleton, indicating strong NE monsoon Red Sea inflow, correlates with periods of high Indian Ocean SST and with predominantly negative (El Nino) phases of the Southern Oscillation. The simultaneous nature of inter-decadal changes in Asian monsoon and ENSO behaviour suggest pan-Indo-Pacific tropical climate reorganisation and evolution.

Monthly values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index from 1821 to 2000

Early instrumental pressure measurements from Gibraltar and the Reykjavik area of Iceland have been used to extend to 1821 the homogeneous pressure series at the two locations. In winter the two sites are located close to the centres of action that comprise the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The extended 'winter half-year' record of the NAO enables recent changes in the record to be placed in the context of the period 1823-1996. The period since the early 1970s is the most prolonged positive phase of the oscillation and the late 1980s and early 1990s is the period with the highest values (strongest westerlies). The winter of 1995-1996 marked a dramatic switch in the index, with the change from 1994-1995 being the greatest change recorded from one year to the next since the series began in 1823. (The extended Gibraltar and Reykjavik monthly pressures and the NAO series can be found on the Climatic Research Unit home page, http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/).

Southern Hemisphere Summer Mesopause Responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

In the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar region, satellite observations reveal a significant upper-mesosphere cooling and a lower-thermosphere warming during warm ENSO events in December. An opposite pattern is observed in the tropical mesopause region. The observed upper-mesosphere cooling agrees with a climate model simulation. Analysis of the simulation suggests that enhanced planetary wave (PW) dissipation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high-latitude stratosphere during El Nino strengthens the Brewer-Dobson circulation and cools the equatorial stratosphere. This increases the magnitude of the SH stratosphere meridional temperature gradient and thus causes the anomalous stratospheric easterly zonal wind and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. The resulting perturbation to gravity wave (GW) filtering causes anomalous SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and polar upwelling and cooling. In addition, constructive inference of ENSO and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) could lead to stronger stratospheric easterly zonal wind anomalies at the SH high latitudes in November and December and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO events in the easterly QBO phase (defined by the equatorial zonal wind at similar to 25 hPa). This would in turn cause much more SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and much colder polar temperatures, and hence it would induce an early onset time of SH summer polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). The opposite mechanism occurs during cold ENSO events in the westerly QBO phase. This implies that ENSO together with QBO could significantly modulate the breakdown time of SH stratospheric polar vortex and the onset time of SH PMC.

Stochastic physics and representation of El Niño Southern Oscillation in climate models

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) è il maggiore fenomeno climatico che avviene a livello dell’Oceano Pacifico tropicale e che ha influenze ambientali, climatiche e socioeconomiche a larga scala. In questa tesi si ripercorrono i passi principali che sono stati fatti per tentare di comprendere un fenomeno così complesso. Per prima cosa, si sono studiati i meccanismi che ne governano la dinamica, fino alla formulazione del modello matematico chiamato Delayed Oscillator (DO) model, proposto da Suarez e Schopf nel 1988. In seguito, per tenere conto della natura caotica del sistema studiato, si è introdotto nel modello lo schema chiamato Stochastically Perturbed Parameterisation Tendencies (SPPT). Infine, si sono portati due esempi di soluzione numerica del DO, sia con che senza l’introduzione della correzione apportata dallo schema SPPT, e si è visto in che misura SPPT porta reali miglioramenti al modello studiato.

El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Climate and acute/subacute paracoccidioidomycosis in a hyper-endemic area in Brazil

Methods Stepwise regression of annual data was applied to model incidence, calculated based on 91 cases, from lagged variables: antecedent precipitation, air temperature, soil water storage, absolute and relative air humidity, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Results Multiple regression analyses resulted in a model, which explains 49% of the incidence variance, taking into account the absolute air humidity in the year of exposure, soil water storage and SOI of the previous 2 years. Conclusions The correlations may reflect enhanced fungal growth after increase in soil water storage in the longer term and greater spore release with increase in absolute air humidity in the short term.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Spatial and temporal patterns in Australian wheat yield and their relationship with ENSO

Spatial and temporal variability in wheat production in Australia is dominated by rainfall occurrence. The length of historical production records is inadequate, however, to analyse spatial and temporal patterns conclusively. In this study we used modelling and simulation to identify key spatial patterns in Australian wheat yield, identify groups of years in the historical record in which spatial patterns were similar, and examine association of those wheat yield year groups with indicators of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple stress index model was trained on 19 years of Australian Bureau of Statistics shire yield data (1975-93). The model was then used to simulate shire yield from 1901 to 1999 for all wheat-producing shires. Principal components analysis was used to determine the dominating spatial relationships in wheat yield among shires. Six major components of spatial variability were found. Five of these represented near spatially independent zones across the Australian wheatbelt that demonstrated coherent temporal (annual) variability in wheat yield. A second orthogonal component was required to explain the temporal variation in New South Wales. The principal component scores were used to identify high- and low-yielding years in each zone. Year type groupings identified in this way were tested for association with indicators of ENSO. Significant associations were found for all zones in the Australian wheatbelt. Associations were as strong or stronger when ENSO indicators preceding the wheat season (April-May phases of the Southern Oscillation Index) were used rather than indicators based on classification during the wheat season. Although this association suggests an obvious role for seasonal climate forecasting in national wheat crop forecasting, the discriminatory power of the ENSO indicators, although significant, was not strong. By examining the historical years forming the wheat yield analog sets within each zone, it may be possible to identify novel climate system or ocean-atmosphere features that may be causal and, hence, most useful in improving seasonal forecasting schemes.

Climate and acute/subacute paracoccidioidomycosis in a hyper-endemic area in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Solar-Terrestrial Signal Record in Tree Ring Width Time Series from Brazil

This work investigates the behavior of the sunspot number and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) signal recorded in the tree ring time series for three different locations in Brazil: Humaita in Amaznia State, Porto Ferreira in So Paulo State, and Passo Fundo in Rio Grande do Sul State, using wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis techniques. The wavelet spectra of tree ring time series showed signs of 11 and 22 years, possibly related to the solar activity, and periods of 2-8 years, possibly related to El Nio events. The cross-wavelet spectra for all tree ring time series from Brazil present a significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in the time interval between 1921 to after 1981. These tree ring time series still have a response to the second harmonic of the solar cycle (5.5 years), but in different time intervals. The cross-wavelet maps also showed that the relationship between the SOI x tree ring time series is more intense, for oscillation in the range of 4-8 years.