The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic Storm Track. Part II: Sea surface temperatures

The impact of North Atlantic SST patterns on the storm track is investigated using a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized (aquaplanet) and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in the atmospheric component (HadAM3) of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). This framework enables the mechanisms determining the tropospheric response to North Atlantic SST patterns to be examined, both in isolation and in combination with continental-scale landmasses and orography. In isolation, a “Gulf Stream” SST pattern acts to strengthen the downstream storm track while a “North Atlantic Drift” SST pattern weakens it. These changes are consistent with changes in the extratropical SST gradient and near-surface baroclinicity, and each storm-track response is associated with a consistent change in the tropospheric jet structure. Locally enhanced near-surface horizontal wind convergence is found over the warm side of strengthened SST gradients associated with ascending air and increased precipitation, consistent with previous studies. When the combined SST pattern is introduced into the semirealistic framework (including the “North American” continent and the “Rocky Mountains”), the results suggest that the topographically generated southwest–northeast tilt in the North Atlantic storm track is enhanced. In particular, the Gulf Stream shifts the storm track south in the western Atlantic whereas the strong high-latitude SST gradient in the northeastern Atlantic enhances the storm track there.

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2 to 5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2 to 5 years and 6 to 9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.

Dynamical and observational constraints on tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures at the last glacial maximum

Asynchronously coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model simulations are used to examine the consequences of changes in the west/east sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient across the equatorial Pacific at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Simulations forced by the CLIMAP SST for the LGM, where the west/east SST gradient across the Pacific is reduced compared to present, produce a reduction in the strength of the trade winds and a decrease in the west/east slope of the equatorial thermocline that is incompatible with thermocline depths newly inferred from foraminiferal assemblages. Stronger-than-present trade winds, and a more realistic simulation of the thermocline slope, are produced when eastern Pacific SSTs are 2°C cooler than western Pacific SSTs. Our study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in tropical SSTs in determining key features of the glacial climate.

Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large-scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region-specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975–2014.

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Age models, color measurements, and calculated sea surface temperatures of sediment cores from the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk

Past changes in North Pacific sea surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions are proposed to play a crucial role in deglacial climate development and ocean circulation but are less well known than from the North Atlantic. Here, we present new alkenone-based sea surface temperature records from the subarctic northwest Pacific and its marginal seas (Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk) for the time interval of the last 15 kyr, indicating millennial-scale sea surface temperature fluctuations similar to short-term deglacial climate oscillations known from Greenland ice-core records. Past changes in sea-ice distribution are derived from relative percentage of specific diatom groups and qualitative assessment of the IP25 biomarker related to sea-ice diatoms. The deglacial variability in sea-ice extent matches the sea surface temperature fluctuations. These fluctuations suggest a linkage to deglacial variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a close atmospheric coupling between the North Pacific and North Atlantic. During the Holocene the subarctic North Pacific is marked by complex sea surface temperature trends, which do not support the hypothesis of a Holocene seesaw in temperature development between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.

Multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene sea surface temperatures, based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst

We present and examine a multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene (MH) sea surface temperatures (SST), based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst census counts. We assess the uncertainties originating from using different methodologies and evaluate the potential of MH SST reconstructions as a benchmark for climate-model simulations. The comparison between different analytical approaches (time frame, baseline climate) shows the choice of time window for the MH has a negligible effect on the reconstructed SST pattern, but the choice of baseline climate affects both the magnitude and spatial pattern of the reconstructed SSTs. Comparison of the SST reconstructions made using different sensors shows significant discrepancies at a regional scale, with uncertainties often exceeding the reconstructed SST anomaly. Apparent patterns in SST may largely be a reflection of the use of different sensors in different regions. Overall, the uncertainties associated with the SST reconstructions are generally larger than the MH anomalies. Thus, the SST data currently available cannot serve as a target for benchmarking model simulations.

Cenomanian/Turonian sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Atlantic reconstructed from geochemical data

Oceanic anoxic event 2 (OAE-2) occurring during the Cenomanian/Turonian (C/T) transition is evident from a globally recognized positive stable carbon isotopic excursion and is thought to represent one of the most extreme carbon cycle perturbations of the last 100 Myr. However, the impact of this major perturbation on and interaction with global climate remains unclear. Here we report new high-resolution records of sea surface temperature (SST) based on TEX86 and d 18O of excellently preserved planktic foraminifera and stable organic carbon isotopes across the C/T transition from black shales located offshore Suriname/French Guiana (Demerara Rise, Ocean Drilling Program Leg 207 Site 1260) and offshore Senegal (Cape Verde Basin, Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 41 Site 367). At Site 1260, where both SST proxy records can be determined, a good match between conservative SST estimates from TEX86 and d 18O is observed. We find that late Cenomanian SSTs in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean (33°C) were substantially warmer than today (27°-29°C) and that the onset of OAE-2 coincided with a rapid shift to an even warmer (35°-36°C) regime. Within the early stages of the OAE a marked (4°C) cooling to temperatures lower than pre-OAE conditions is observed. However, well before the termination of OAE-2 the warm regime was reestablished and persisted into the Turonian. Our findings corroborate the view that the C/T transition represents the onset of the interval of peak Cretaceous warmth. More importantly, they are consistent with the hypotheses that mid-Cretaceous warmth can be attributed to high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and that major OAEs were capable of triggering global cooling through the negative feedback effect of organic carbon-burial-led CO2 sequestration. Evidently, however, the factors that gave rise to the observed shift to a warmer climate regime at the onset of OAE-2 were sufficiently powerful that they were only briefly counterbalanced by the high rates of carbon burial attained during even the most extreme interval of organic carbon burial in the last 100 Myr.

Uk'37, derived sea surface temperatures and coccolith abundances in North Atlantic sediment cores

The UK37' index has proven to be a robust proxy to estimate past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over a range of time scales, but like any other proxy, it has uncertainties. For instance, in reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the northern North Atlantic, UK37' indicates higher temperatures than those derived from foraminiferal proxies. Here we evaluate whether such warm glacial estimates are caused by the advection of reworked alkenones in ice-rafted debris (IRD) to deep-sea sediments. We have quantified both coccolith assemblages and alkenones in sediments from glaciogenic debris flows in the continental margins of the northern North Atlantic, and from a deep-sea core from the Reykjanes Ridge. Certain debris flow deposits in the North Atlantic were generated by the presence of massive ice-sheets in the past, and their associated ice streams. Such deposits are composed of the same materials that were present in the IRD at the time they were generated. We conclude that ice rafting from some locations was a transport pathway to the deep sea floor of reworked alkenones and pre-Quaternary coccolith species during glacial stages, but that not all of the IRD contained alkenones, even when reworked coccoliths were present. We speculate that the ratio of reworked coccoliths to alkenone concentration might be useful to infer whether significant reworked alkenone inputs from IRD did occur at a particular site in the glacial North Atlantic. We also observe that alkenones in some of the debris flows contain a colder signal than estimated for LGM sediments in the northern North Atlantic. This is also clear in the deep-sea core studied where the warmest intervals do not correspond to the intervals with large inputs of reworked coccoliths or IRD. We conclude that any possible bias to UK37' estimates associated with reworked alkenones is not necessarily towards higher values, and that the high SST anomalies for the LGM are unlikely to be the result of a bias caused by IRD inputs.

Sea surface temperatures during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11

The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) was characterized by a protracted deglaciation and an unusually long climatic optimum. It remains unclear to what degree the climate development during this interglacial reflects the unusually weak orbital forcing or greenhouse gas trends. Previously, arguments about the duration and timing of the MIS11 climatic optimum and about the pace of the deglacial warming were based on a small number of key records, which appear to show regional differences. In order to obtain a global signal of climate evolution during MIS11, we compiled a database of 78 sea surface temperature (SST) records from 57 sites spanning MIS11, aligned these individually on the basis of benthic (N = 28) or planktonic (N = 31) stable oxygen isotope curves to a common time frame and subjected 48 of them to an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis revealed a high commonality among all records, with the principal SST trend explaining almost 49% of the variability. This trend indicates that on the global scale, the surface ocean underwent rapid deglacial warming during Termination V, in pace with carbon dioxide rise, followed by a broad SST optimum centered at ~410 kyr. The second EOF, which explained ~18% of the variability, revealed the existence of a different SST trend, characterized by a delayed onset of the temperature optimum during MIS11 at ~398 kyr, followed by a prolonged warm period lasting beyond 380 kyr. This trend is most consistently manifested in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea and is here attributed to the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to record selection and to age-model uncertainties of up to 3-6 kyr, but more sensitive to SST seasonal attribution and SST uncertainties >1 °C. In order to validate the CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3) predictive potential, the annual and seasonal SST anomalies recorded in a total of 74 proxy records were compared with runs for three time slices representing orbital configuration extremes during the peak interglacial of MIS11. The modeled SST anomalies are characterized by a significantly lower variance compared to the reconstructions. Nevertheless, significant correlations between proxy and model data are found in comparisons on the seasonal basis, indicating that the model captures part of the long-term variability induced by astronomical forcing, which appears to have left a detectable signature in SST trends.