Parametric Studies on Saltwater Intrusion into Coastal Aquifers for Anticipate Sea Level Rise

Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers is a global issue, exacerbated by increasing demands for freshwater in coastal regions. This study investigates into the parametric analysis on saltwater intrusion in a conceptual, coastal, unconfined aquifer considering wide range of freshwater draft and anticipated sea level rise. The saltwater intrusion under various circumstances is simulated through parametric studies using MODFLOW, MT3DMS and SEAWAT. The MODFLOW is used to simulate the groundwater flow system under changing hydro-dynamics in coastal aquifer. To simulate solute transport MT3DMS and SEAWAT is used. The saltwater intrusion process has direct bearing on hydraulic conductivity and inversely related to porosity. It may also be noted that increase in recharge rate considered in the study does not have much influence on saltwater intrusion. Effect of freshwater draft at locations beyond half of the width of the aquifer considered has marginal effect and hence can be considered as safe zone for freshwater withdrawals. Due to the climate change effect, the anticipated rise in sea level of 0.88 m over a century is considered in the investigation. This causes increase in salinity intrusion by about 25%. The combined effect of sea level rise and freshwater draft (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Shoreline erosion due to extreme storms and sea level rise

A summary is presented of research conducted on beach erosion associated with extreme storms and sea level rise. These results were developed by the author and graduate students under sponsorship of the University of Delaware Sea Grant Program. Various shoreline response problems of engineering interest are examined. The basis for the approach is a monotonic equilibrium profile of the form h = Ax2 /3 in which h is water depth at a distance x from the shoreline and A is a scale parameter depending primarily on sediment characteristics and secondarily on wave characteristics. This form is shown to be consistent with uniform wave energy dissipation per unit volume. The dependency of A on sediment size is quantified through laboratory and field data. Quasi-static beach response is examined to represent the effect of sea level rise. Cases considered include natural and seawalled profiles. To represent response to storms of realistic durations, a model is proposed in which the offshore transport is proportional to the "excess" energy dissipation per unit volume. The single rate constant in this model was evaluated based on large scale wave tank tests and confirmed with Hurricane Eloise pre- and post-storm surveys. It is shown that most hurricanes only cause 10% to 25% of the erosion potential associated with the peak storm tide and wave conditions. Additional applications include profile response employing a fairly realistic breaking model in which longshore bars are formed and long-term (500 years) Monte Carlo simulation including the contributions due to sea level rise and random storm occurrences. (PDF has 67 pages.)

Some considerations on coastal processes relevant to sea level rise

The effects of potential sea level rise on the shoreline and shore environment have been briefly examined by considering the interactions between sea level rise and relevant coastal processes. These interactions have been reviewed beginning with a discussion of the need to reanalyze previous estimates of eustatic sea level rise and compaction effects in water level measurement. This is followed by considerations on sea level effects on coastal and estuarine tidal ranges, storm surge and water level response, and interaction with natural and constructed shoreline features. The desirability to reevaluate the well known Bruun Rule for estimating shoreline recession has been noted. The mechanics of ground and surface water intrusion with reference to sea level rise are then reviewed. This is followed by sedimentary processes in the estuaries including wetland response. Finally comments are included on some probable effects of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems. These interactions are complex and lead to shoreline evolution (under a sea level rise) which is highly site-specific. Models which determine shoreline change on the basis of inundation of terrestrial topography without considering relevant coastal processes are likely to lead to erroneous shoreline scenarios, particularly where the shoreline is composed of erodible sedimentary material. With some exceptions, present day knowledge of shoreline response to hydrodynamic forcing is inadequate for long-term quantitative predictions. A series of interrelated basic and applied research issues must be addressed in the coming decades to determine shoreline response to sea level change with an acceptable degree of confidence. (PDF contains 189 pages.)

Influence of the Azores high on sea level pressure and wind, and on precipitation, in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Intensification of the Azores high pressure cell in mid-year, with concomitant air flow from the Caribbean into the Pacific, is shown to be responsible for a secondary minimum of precipitation observed along the tropical Pacific coast of the Americas, and to have a measurable effect on wind and precipitation several hundred kilometers offshore. SPANISH: La intensificación de la célula de alta presión de las Azores a mediados del año, y la corriente de aire concomitante que entra al Pacífico procedente del Caribe, se demuestra que es la causante de un mínimo secundario de precipitación observado a lo largo de la costa tropical de las Américas en el Pacífico y que tiene un efecto mensurable sobre el viento y la precipitación varios cientos de kilómetros mar afuera. (PDF contains 23 pages.)

Sea-level rise in Hawaii: Implications for future shoreline locations and Hawaii coastal management

Management of coastal development in Hawaii is based on the location of the certified shoreline, which is representative of the upper limit of marine inundation within the last several years. Though the certified shoreline location is significantly more variable than long-term erosion indicators, its migration will still follow the coastline's general trend. The long-term migration of Hawaii’s coasts will be significantly controlled by rising sea level. However, land use decisions adjacent to the shoreline and the shape and nature of the nearshore environment are also important controls to coastal migration. Though each of the islands has experienced local sea-level rise over the course of the last century, there are still locations across the islands of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, which show long- term accretion or anomalously high erosion rates relative to their regions. As a result, engineering rules of thumb such as the Brunn rule do not always predict coastal migration and beach profile equilibrium in Hawaii. With coastlines facing all points of the compass rose, anthropogenic alteration of the coasts, complex coastal environments such as coral reefs, and the limited capacity to predict coastal change, Hawaii will require a more robust suite of proactive coastal management policies to weather future changes to its coastline. Continuing to use the current certified shoreline, adopting more stringent coastal setback rules similar to Kauai County, adding realistic sea-level rise components for all types of coastal planning, and developing regional beach management plans are some of the recommended adaptation strategies for Hawaii. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Building a sustainable community of coastal leaders to deal with sea level rise and inundation

Sea level rise and inundation were stated to be the highest priorities in the community-developed Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy in 2005. Although they remain stated priorities, very few resources have been allocated towards this challenge. Inundation poses a substantial risk to many coastal communities, and the risk is projected to increase because of continued development, changes in the frequency and intensity of inundation events, and acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise along our vulnerable shorelines. (PDF contains 4 pages) There is an increasing urgency for federal and state governments to focus on the local and regional levels and consistently provide the information, tools, and methods necessary for adaptation. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. A workshop held in December 2000 on coastal inundation and sea level rise proposes a shared framework that can help guide where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade.

Improving reporting of uncertainties in sea level rise assessments

Sea level rise (SLR) assessments are commonly used to identify the extent that coastal populations are at risk to flooding. However, the data and assumptions used to develop these assessments contain numerous sources and types of uncertainty, which limit confidence in the accuracy of modeled results. This study illustrates how the intersection of uncertainty in digital elevation models (DEMs) and SLR lead to a wide range of modeled outcomes. SLR assessments are then reviewed to identify the extent that uncertainty is documented in peer-reviewed articles. The paper concludes by discussing priorities needed to further understand SLR impacts. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Coastal plant growth and CO2 enrichment: Can the productivity of black needle rush keep pace with sea level rise?

The rate of sea level change has varied considerably over geological time, with rapid increases (0.25 cm yr-1) at the end of the last ice age to more modest increases over the last 4,000 years (0.04 cm yr-1; Hendry 1993). Due to anthropogenic contributions to climate change, however, the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase between 0.10 and 0.25 cm year-1 for many coastal areas (Warrick et al. 1996). Notwithstanding, it has been predicted that over the next 100 years, sea levels along the northeastern coast of North Carolina may increase by an astonishing 0.8 m (0.8 cm yr-1); through a combination of sea-level rise and coastal subsidence (Titus and Richman 2001; Parham et al. 2006). As North Carolina ranks third in the United States with land at or just above sea level, any additional sea rise may promote further deterioration of vital coastal wetland systems. (PDF contains 4 pages)

New measurements on the absolute cosmic ray ionization from sea level to 1540 kilometers altitude

An air filled ionization chamber has been constructed with a volume of 552 liters and a wall consisting of 12.7 mg/cm² of plastic wrapped over a rigid, lightweight aluminum frame. A calibration in absolute units, independent of previous Caltech ion chamber calibrations, was applied to a sealed Neher electrometer for use in this chamber. The new chamber was flown along with an older, argon filled, balloon type chamber in a C-135 aircraft from 1,000 to 40,000 feet altitude, and other measurements of sea level cosmic ray ionization were made, resulting in the value of 2.60 ± .03 ion pairs/cm³ sec atm) at sea level. The calibrations of the two instruments were found to agree within 1 percent, and the airplane data were consistent with previous balloon measurements in the upper atmosphere. Ionization due to radon gas in the atmosphere was investigated. Absolute ionization data in the lower atmosphere have been compared with results of other observers, and discrepancies have been discussed.

Data from a polar orbiting ion chamber on the OGO-II, IV spacecraft have been analyzed. The problem of radioactivity produced on the spacecraft during passes through high fluxes of trapped protons has been investigated, and some corrections determined. Quiet time ionization averages over the polar regions have been plotted as function of altitude, and an analytical fit is made to the data that gives a value of 10.4 ± 2.3 percent for the fractional part of the ionization at the top of the atmosphere due to splash albedo particles, although this result is shown to depend on an assumed angular distribution for the albedo particles. Comparisons with other albedo measurements are made. The data are shown to be consistent with balloon and interplanetary ionization measurements. The position of the cosmic ray knee is found to exhibit an altitude dependence, a North-South effect, and a small local time variation.

Sea level rise adaptation: emerging lessons for local policy development

Many coastal communities across the United States are beginning to plan for climate-related sea level rise. While impacts and solutions will vary with local conditions, jurisdictions which have begun this process seem to pass through three common stages when developing policy for local sea level rise adaptation: l) building awareness about local sea level rise threats, 2) undertaking analyses of local vulnerabilities, and 3) developing plans and policies to deal with these vulnerabilities. The purpose of this paper is to help advance community dialogue and further inform local decision-makers about key elements and steps for addressing climate-related sea level rise. It summarizes the results of a project the Marine Policy Institute (MPI) undertook during 2011-12 to review experiences from fourteen U.S. coastal jurisdictions representing a variety of city, county, and state efforts with sea level adaptation. There are many more initiatives underway than those reflected in this sample, but the “focus jurisdictions” were selected because of the extensive information publically available on their experiences and lessons being learned that could provide insights for coastal communities, especially in Southwest Florida.

Tidal and sea level changes at Jeddah, Red Sea

Tidal and sea level changes during 1991 at a coastal station (Jeddah) in the central part of the Red Sea are investigated. Analysis shows higher sea levels in winter and lower in summer. The amplitude of change at Jeddah is above 50cm. Analysis of wind stress at Jeddah indicates an insignificant contribution of the cross-shore component, while a major part of the changes in the sea level can be accounted for by the long-shore component.

The seasonal variations of sea level due to density variations in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman

From the distribution of oceanographic data (temperature and salinity) in both Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, the steric components (thermal, haline and steric heights) are calculated for the upper 50m layer during different seasons. The analysis reveals relevant evidence, that temperature variations (thermal component) play a role in the fluctuations of sea level within the investigated area. The salinity variations (haline component) is only significant near the entrance. The sea level variations due to density (steric component) is low during winter and spring and high during summer and autumn. The steric height is always lower in the northern and central regions of Arabian Gulf and higher in eastern region of Arabian Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman, i.e. the surface water must flow from the Gulf of Oman to the Arabian Gulf. The steric sea level gradient around the Strait of Hormuz are 0.04 cm/km in winter, 0.04 cm/km in spring, and 0.025 cm/km in summer and 0.014 cm/km in autumn.

Phylogeography of the freshwater catfish Hemibagrus guttatus (Siluriformes, Bagridae): Implications for South China biogeography and influence of sea-level changes

National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; [2007CB411600]; [30530120]

Climate change, sea level rise and integrated coastal zone management: An IPCC approach

Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced.

timng of the last glacial maximum from observed sea level minima

During the Last Glacial Maximum, ice sheets covered large areas in northern latitudes, and global temperatures were significantly lower than today. But few direct estimates exist of the volume of the ice sheets, or the timing and rates of change during their advance and retreat. Here we analyze four distinct sediment facies in the shallow, tectonically stable Bonaparte Gulf, Australia - each of which is characteristic of a distinct range in sea level - to estimate the maximum volume of land-based ice during the last glaciation and the timing of the initial melting phase. We use faunal assemblages and preservation status of the sediments to distinguish open marine, shallow marine, marginal marine and brackish conditions, and estimate the timing and the mass of the ice sheets using radiocarbon dating and glacio-hydroisostatic modelling. Our results indicate that from at least 22,000 to 19,000 (calendar) years before present, land-based ice volume was at its maximum, exceeding today's grounded ice sheets by 52.5 x 10 exp 6 cu km. A rapid decrease in ice volume by about 10 percent within a few hundred years terminated the Last Glacial Maximum at 19,000 +/- 250 years.