Finanza Imprenditoriale: Teoria del Portafoglio e Costo del Capitale

This thesis focuses on the limits that may prevent an entrepreneur from maximizing her value, and the benefits of diversification in reducing her cost of capital. After reviewing all relevant literature dealing with the differences between traditional corporate finance and entrepreneurial finance, we focus on the biases occurring when traditional finance techniques are applied to the entrepreneurial context. In particular, using the portfolio theory framework, we determine the degree of under-diversification of entrepreneurs. Borrowing the methodology developed by Kerins et al. (2004), we test a model for the cost of capital according to the firms' industry and the entrepreneur's wealth commitment to the firm. This model takes three market inputs (standard deviation of market returns, expected return of the market, and risk-free rate), and two firm-specific inputs (standard deviation of the firm returns and correlation between firm and market returns) as parameters, and returns an appropriate cost of capital as an output. We determine the expected market return and the risk-free rate according to the huge literature on the market risk premium. As for the market return volatility, it is estimated considering a GARCH specification for the market index returns. Furthermore, we assume that the firm-specific inputs can be obtained considering new-listed firms similar in risk to the firm we are evaluating. After we form a database including all the data needed for our analysis, we perform an empirical investigation to understand how much of the firm's total risk depends on market risk, and which explanatory variables can explain it. Our results show that cost of capital declines as the level of entrepreneur's commitment decreases. Therefore, maximizing the value for the entrepreneur depends on the fraction of entrepreneur's wealth invested in the firm and the fraction she sells to outside investors. These results are interesting both for entrepreneurs and policy makers: the former can benefit from an unbiased model for their valuation; the latter can obtain some guidelines to overcome the recent financial market crisis.

Three essays on asset pricing

In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results, supporting the simpler-is-better contention. However, the Whaley model does under/overprice out-of-the-money call/put VIX options, which is contrary to the behavior of stock index option pricing models. In Chapter IV, I explore risk pricing through a model of time-changed Lvy processes based on the joint evidence from individual stock options and underlying stocks. I specify a pricing kernel that prices idiosyncratic and systematic risks. This approach to examining risk premia on stocks deviates from existing studies. The empirical results show that the market pays positive premia for idiosyncratic and market jump-diffusion risk, and idiosyncratic volatility risk. However, there is no consensus on the premium for market volatility risk. It can be positive or negative. The positive premium on idiosyncratic risk runs contrary to the implications of traditional capital asset pricing theory.

The effect of the business cycle on the performance of socially responsible equity mutual funds

The current study applies a two-state switching regression model to examine the behavior of a hypothetical portfolio of ten socially responsible (SRI) equity mutual funds during the expansion and contraction phases of US business cycles between April 1991 and June 2009, based on the Carhart four-factor model, using monthly data. The model identified a business cycle effect on the performance of SRI equity mutual funds. Fund returns were less volatile during expansion/peaks than during contraction/troughs, as indicated by the standard deviation of returns. During contraction/troughs, fund excess returns were explained by the differential in returns between small and large companies, the difference between the returns on stocks trading at high and low Book-to-Market Value, the market excess return over the risk-free rate, and fund objective. During contraction/troughs, smaller companies offered higher returns than larger companies (ci = 0.26, p = 0.01), undervalued stocks out-performed high growth stocks (h i = 0.39, p <0.0001), and funds with growth objectives out-performed funds with other objectives (oi = 0.01, p = 0.02). The hypothetical SRI portfolio was less risky than the market (bi = 0.74, p <0.0001). During expansion/peaks, fund excess returns were explained by the market excess return over the risk-free rate, and fund objective. Funds with other objectives, such as balanced funds and income funds out-performed funds with growth objectives (oi = −0.01, p = 0.03). The hypothetical SRI portfolio exhibited similar risk as the market (bi = 0.93, p <0.0001). The SRI investor adds a third criterion to the risk and return trade-off of traditional portfolio theory. This constraint is social performance. The research suggests that managers of SRI equity mutual funds may diminish value by using social and ethical criteria to select stocks, but add value by superior stock selection. The result is that the performance of SRI mutual funds is very similar to that of the market. There was no difference in the value added among secular SRI, religious SRI, and vice screens.

Three Essays on Asset Pricing

In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results, supporting the simpler-is-better contention. However, the Whaley model does under/overprice out-of-the-money call/put VIX options, which is contrary to the behavior of stock index option pricing models. In Chapter IV, I explore risk pricing through a model of time-changed Lévy processes based on the joint evidence from individual stock options and underlying stocks. I specify a pricing kernel that prices idiosyncratic and systematic risks. This approach to examining risk premia on stocks deviates from existing studies. The empirical results show that the market pays positive premia for idiosyncratic and market jump-diffusion risk, and idiosyncratic volatility risk. However, there is no consensus on the premium for market volatility risk. It can be positive or negative. The positive premium on idiosyncratic risk runs contrary to the implications of traditional capital asset pricing theory.

Mercado brasileiro: aplicação de análise de componentes principais no cálculo de VAR para carteiras de renda fixa

A abordagem do Value at Risk (VAR) neste trabalho será feita a partir da análise da curva de juros por componentes principais (Principal Component Analysis – PCA). Com essa técnica, os movimentos da curva de juros são decompostos em um pequeno número de fatores básicos independentes um do outro. Entre eles, um fator de deslocamento (shift), que faz com que as taxas da curva se movam na mesma direção, todas para cima ou para baixo; de inclinação (twist) que rotaciona a curva fazendo com que as taxas curtas se movam em uma direção e as longas em outra; e finalmente movimento de torção, que afeta vencimentos curtos e longos no mesmo sentido e vencimentos intermediários em sentido oposto. A combinação destes fatores produz cenários hipotéticos de curva de juros que podem ser utilizados para estimar lucros e perdas de portfolios. A maior perda entre os cenários gerados é uma maneira intuitiva e rápida de estimar o VAR. Este, tende a ser, conforme verificaremos, uma estimativa conservadora do respectivo percentual de perda utilizado. Existem artigos sobre aplicações de PCA para a curva de juros brasileira, mas desconhecemos algum que utilize PCA para construção de cenários e cálculo de VAR, como é feito no presente trabalho.Nesse trabalho, verificaremos que a primeira componente principal produz na curva um movimento de inclinação conjugado com uma ligeira inclinação, ao contrário dos resultados obtidos em curvas de juros de outros países, que apresentam deslocamentos praticamente paralelos.

Mortality rate in children caused by traffic accidents according to geographical regions : Brazil, 1997 - 2005

Lesões fatais em crianças causadas por acidentes de trânsito representam um problema em muitos países. Este estudo analisou a taxa de mortalidade em crianças passageiras de automóveis menores de 10 anos de idade no Brasil, entre 1997 e 2005. Para isso, o número de mortes foi obtido diretamente no banco de dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM) e os dados da população são projeções intercensitárias a partir censo demográfico do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) disponíveis pelo site do DATASUS. Foram calculadas, para os triênios compreendidos no período em estudo, as taxas de mortalidade por acidente de trânsito entre crianças passageiras de automóveis segundo faixa etária (menor que 1 ano, 1 a 4 e 5 a 9) e região geográfica. Os resultados mostraram taxas de mortalidade de 5,68, 7,32 e 6,78 (por 1.000.000), respectivamente, para os períodos 1997-1999, 2000-2002 e 2003-2005 para todo o Brasil. Crianças menores de 1 ano de idade apresentam taxa de mortalidade de 10,18 (por 1,000,000), maior que as observadas para as outras faixas etárias. Para o período 1997-2005, as maiores taxas foram observadas nas regiões Centro-Oeste e Sul, representando, respectivamente, 13,88 e 11,47 (por 1.000.000). Tais resultados mostram a situação de risco da criança em relação a acidentes de trânsito como passageiras de automóveis e contribuem para a elaboração de campanhas educativas de prevenção de lesões.

Uma formulação por média-variância multi-período para o erro de rastreamento em carteiras de investimento.

Neste trabalho, deriva-se uma política de escolha ótima baseada na análise de média-variância para o Erro de Rastreamento no cenário Multi-período - ERM -. Referindo-se ao ERM como a diferença entre o capital acumulado pela carteira escolhida e o acumulado pela carteira de um benchmark. Assim, foi aplicada a metodologia abordada por Li-Ng em [24] para a solução analítica, obtendo-se dessa maneira uma generalização do caso uniperíodo introduzido por Roll em [38]. Em seguida, selecionou-se um portfólio do mercado de ações brasileiro baseado no fator de orrelação, e adotou-se como benchmark o índice da bolsa de valores do estado de São Paulo IBOVESPA, além da taxa básica de juros SELIC como ativo de renda fixa. Dois casos foram abordados: carteira composta somente de ativos de risco, caso I, e carteira com um ativo sem risco indexado à SELIC - e ativos do caso I (caso II).

Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

Interest rate (in)sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt : economic analysis based on 2002-2015 empirical evidence

Interest rate sensitivity assessment framework based on fixed income yield indexes is developed and applied to two types of emerging market corporate debt: investment grade and high yield exposures. Our research advances beyond the correlation analyses focused on co- movements in yields and/or spreads of risky and risk-free assets. We show that correlation- based analyses of interest rate sensitivity could appear rather inconclusive and, hence, we investigate the bottom line profit and loss of a hypothetical model portfolio of corporates. We consider historical data covering the period 2002 – 2015, which enable us to assess interest rate sensitivity of assets during the development, the apogee, and the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Based on empirical evidence, both for investment and speculative grades securities, we find that the emerging market corporates exhibit two different regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a positive sensitivity under the normal market conditions to a negative one during distressed phases of business cycles. This research sheds light on how financial institutions may approach interest rate risk management, evidencing that even plain vanilla portfolios of emerging market corporates, which on average could appear rather insensitive to the interest rate risk in fact present a binary behavior of their interest rate sensitivities. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

Governed by the cycle : direct and inverted interest-rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt

An innovative approach to quantify interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corporates is proposed. Our focus is centered at price sensitivity of modeled investment grade and high yield portfolios to changes in the present value of modeled portfolios composed of safe-haven assets, which define risk-free interest rates. Our methodology is based on blended yield indexes. Modeled investment horizons are always kept above one year thus allowing to derive empirical implications for practical strategies of interest rate risk management in the banking book. As our study spans over the period 2002 – 2015, it covers interest rate sensitivity of assets under the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases of the economic cycles. We demonstrate that the emerging market corporate bonds both, investment grade and high yield types, depending on the phase of a business cycle exhibit diverse regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a direct positive sensitivity under the normal pre-crisis market conditions to an inverted negative sensitivity during distressed turmoil of the recent financial crisis, and than back to direct positive but weaker sensitivity under new normal post-crisis conjuncture. Our unusual blended yield-based approach allows us to present theoretical explanations of such phenomena from economics point of view and helps us to solve an old controversy regarding positive or negative responses of credit spreads to interest rates. We present numerical quantification of sensitivities, which corroborate with our conclusion that hedging of interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process linked to the phases of business cycles as we evidence a binary-like behavior of interest rate sensitivities along the economic time. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for approaching downside risk management and optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

The impact of taxes on optimal portfolio choice : an Australian study

Taxes are an important component of investing that is commonly overlooked in both the literature and in practice. For example, many understand that taxes will reduce an investment’s return, but less understood is the risk-sharing nature of taxes that also reduces the investment’s risk. This thesis examines how taxes affect the optimal asset allocation and asset location decision in an Australian environment. It advances the model of Horan & Al Zaman (2008), improving the method by which the present value of tax liabilities are calculated, by using an after-tax risk-free discount rate, and incorporating any new or reduced tax liabilities generated into its expected risk and return estimates. The asset allocation problem is examined for a range of different scenarios using Australian parameters, including different risk aversion levels, personal marginal tax rates, investment horizons, borrowing premiums, high or low inflation environments, and different starting cost bases. The findings support the Horan & Al Zaman (2008) conclusion that equities should be held in the taxable account. In fact, these findings are strengthened with most of the efficient frontier maximising equity holdings in the taxable account instead of only half. Furthermore, these findings transfer to the Australian case, where it is found that taxed Australian investors should always invest into equities first through the taxable account before investing in super. However, untaxed Australian investors should invest their equity first through superannuation. With borrowings allowed in the taxable account (no borrowing premium), Australian taxed investors should hold 100% of the superannuation account in the risk-free asset, while undertaking leverage in the taxable account to achieve the desired risk-return. Introducing a borrowing premium decreases the likelihood of holding 100% of super in the risk-free asset for taxable investors. The findings also suggest that the higher the marginal tax rate, the higher the borrowing premium in order to overcome this effect. Finally, as the investor’s marginal tax rate increases, the overall allocation to equities should increase due to the increased risk and return sharing caused by taxation, and in order to achieve the same risk/return level as the lower taxation level, the investor must take on more equity exposure. The investment horizon has a minimal impact on the optimal allocation decision in the absence of factors such as mean reversion and human capital.

Embedded tax liabilities and portfolio choice

his study presents an improved method of dealing with embedded tax liabilities in portfolio choice. We argue that using a risk-free discount rate is appropriate for calculating the present value of future tax liabilities. Supportive of recent research, our results found a taxation-induced preference of holding equities over bonds, and a location preference of holding equities in the taxable account and bonds in retirement accounts. These important findings contrast with traditional investment advice which suggests a greater capacity for risk in retirement accounts.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Foreign Capital and Finland : Central government's first period of reliance on international financial markets, 1862-1938

The main objective of the study is to evaluate the Finnish central government s foreign borrowing between the years 1862 and 1938. Most of this period was characterised by deep capital market integration that bears resemblance to the liberal world financial order at the turn of the millennium. The main aim is to analyse the credit risk associated with the state and its determination by evaluating the world financial market centres perception of Finland. By doing this, the study is also expected to provide an additional dimension to Finland s political and economic history by incorporating into the research the assessments of international capital markets regarding Finland during a period that witnessed profound political and economic changes in Finnish society. The evaluation of the credit risk mainly relies on exchange-rate risk free time series of the state s foreign bonds. They have been collected from quotations in the stock exchanges in Helsinki, Hamburg, Paris and London. In addition, it investigates Finland s exposure to short-term debt and Moody s credit ratings assigned to Finland. The study emphasises the importance of the political risk. It suggests that the hey-day of the state s reliance on foreign capital markets took place during last few decades of the 19th century when Finland enjoyed a wide autonomy in the Russian Empire and prudently managed its economy, highlighted in Finland s adherence to the international gold standard. Political confrontations in Finland and, in particular, in Russia and the turbulence of the world financial system prevented the return of this beneficial position again. Through its issuance of foreign bonds the state was able to import substantial amounts of foreign capital, which was sorely needed to foster economic development in Finland. Moreover, the study argues that the state s presence in the western capital markets not only had economic benefits, but it also increased the international awareness of Finland s distinct and separate status in the Russian Empire and later underlined its position as an independent republic.

Asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a Markov modulated market

We address asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a regime switching market where the risk free interest rate, growth rate and the volatility of the stocks depend on a finite state Markov chain. We study two variations of the chain namely, when the chain is moving very fast compared to the underlying asset price and when it is moving very slow. Using quadratic hedging and asymptotic expansion, we derive corrections on the locally risk minimizing option price.