Recent research (N=9,305) underscores the importance of using age-stratified actuarial tables in sex offender risk assessments

A useful understanding of the relationship between age, actuarial scores, and sexual recidivism can be obtained by comparing the entries in equivalent cells from “agestratified” actuarial tables. This article reports the compilation of the first multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates, referred to as the “multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates (MATS-1),” from recent research on Static-99 and another actuarial known as the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale. The MATS-1 validates the “age invariance effect” that the risk of sexual recidivism declines with advancing age and shows that age-restricted tables underestimate risk for younger offenders and overestimate risk for older offenders. Based on data from more than 9,000 sex offenders, our conclusion is that evaluators should report recidivism estimates from age-stratified tables when they are assessing sexual recidivism risk, particularly when evaluating the aging sex offender.

Back to basics : empirical support for the importance of release planning in reducing sex offender recidivism

This article reports findings from a series of empirical studies investigating whether poor release planning might contribute to sex offender recidivism. A coding protocol was developed to measure the comprehensiveness of release planning which included items relating to accommodation, employment, pro-social support, community based treatment, and the Good Lives Model (T. Ward & C.A. Stewart, 2003) secondary goods. The protocol was retrospectively applied to groups of recidivist and non recidivist child molesters, matched on static risk level and time since release. As predicted, overall release planning was significantly poorer for recidivists compared to non recidivists. The accommodation, employment, and social support items combined to best predict recidivism, with predictive accuracy comparable to that obtained using static risk models. Results highlighted the importance of release planning in efforts to reduce sex offender recidivism. Implications for policy makers and community members are briefly discussed.

The quality of community reintegration planning for child molesters : effects on sexual recidivism

Research on the causal factors underlying sex offender recidivism has not considered the success or failure of the reintegration process by which the offender rejoins the community after prison. The authors developed a coding protocol to measure the quality and comprehensiveness of reintegration planning for sex offenders. The protocol was retrospectively applied to groups of recidivists and nonrecidivists who were matched on static risk level and follow-up time. The protocol demonstrated adequate reliability. Compared to nonrecidivists, recidivists had significantly lower scores relating to accommodation, employment, and the Good Lives Model secondary goods, as well as lower total reintegration plan scores. ANCOVAs showed that when IQ and level of sexual deviance were controlled for, accommodation (a place to live) was significantly related to sexual recidivism and the Good Lives Model—secondary goods was significantly related to any recidivism. These results suggest that poor reintegration planning may be a risk factor for recidivism.

The rehabilitation of offenders : reducing risk and promoting better lives

This article examines the nature of offender rehabilitation and briefly reviews the effectiveness of correctional interventions in reducing recidivism. It then outlines the two most prominent contemporary theories of offender rehabilitation: the Risk-Need-Responsivity Model and the Good Lives Model (GLM). Our aim is to introduce these two broad rehabilitation frameworks and analyse their practice implications. We conclude that the GLM can offer an alternative view of offender rehabilitation that seeks to help offenders live more fulfilling lives while also reducing risk.

Mental health diversion courts: a two year recidivism study of a South Australian mental health court program.

The need to develop specialized judicial processes to deal with offenders with mental illnesses is now widely recognized and has led to the introduction of mental health court diversion programs around the world. At present, however, there is only limited evidence from which to assess the impact of these initiatives. This paper describes the South Australian model of diversion, with specific reference to the relationship between identified participant characteristics, program compliance rates, and re-offending outcomes. The results of a two-year recidivism study suggest that involvement with the program has a positive impact on recidivism, but that this is independent from the individual's level of success in the program. Lower risk offenders were more likely to achieve successful outcomes than those in the higher risk categories. The implications of these results, as well the factors that might inform the ongoing development of mental health court programs, are discussed.

Recidivism among participants of an employment assistance program for prisoners and offenders

Recidivism outcomes were examined over a 2-year postrelease period for participants of an Australian employment assistance program. The voluntary 12-month program operated from 17 Victorian correctional locations, 7 prisons, and 10 community corrections locations, targeting participants at moderate to high risk of reoffending. Recidivism outcomes included simple rates of reoffending for the whole program (N = 3,034 registered participants) and analyses of rate and seriousness of reoffending and extent of poly-offending for a random sample of 600 program participants and 600 nonparticipants. Offending among program participants' pre- and post-registration was also investigated. Results showed a very low rate of reoffending (7.46%) for the entire program participant group while engaged in the program. As well, program participants had significantly lower levels of recidivism than nonparticipants, and postregistration offending was significantly lower than preregistration offending. Findings indicate that long-term postrelease employment support programs provide positive benefits in terms of reduced reoffending.

Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence

Recent years have seen a consensus emerge regarding the dynamic risk factors that are associated with future violence. These risk factors are now routinely assessed in structured violence risk assessment instruments. They provide a focus for treatment in structured group programmes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to risk-related theoretical issues, whether these dynamic risk factors are causally related or simply correlates of violent offending, or the extent to which they change as a consequence of treatment. More challenging is the lack of evidence to suggest that changes in these dynamic risk factors actually result in reductions in violent offending. In this paper we consider the meaning of the term dynamic risk, arguing that only those factors that, when changed, reduce the likelihood of violent recidivism, can be considered to be truly dynamic. We conclude that few of the violence risk factors commonly regarded as dynamic fulfil this requirement. There is a need to think more critically about assessment findings and treatment recommendations relating to dynamic risk, and conduct research that establishes, rather than assumes, that certain dynamic risk factors are directly related to violence. Some suggestions for advancing knowledge and practice are provided.

The Effect of Arrest on Intimate Partner Violence Recidivism

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Sex offender risk assessment and management in Ireland

This research examined sex offender risk assessment and management in Ireland. It focused on the statutory agencies with primary responsibility (Garda Síochána and the Probation Service). The goal was to document the historical, contextual and current systems, in addition to identifying areas of concern/improvements. The research was a mixed-methods approach. Eight studies were conducted. This incorporated documentary reviews of four Commission to Inquire Reports, qualitative interviews/focus groups with Garda staff, Probation Service staff, statutory agencies, community stakeholders, various Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and sex offenders. Quantitative questionnaires were also administered to Garda staff. In all over 70 interviews were conducted and questionnaires were forwarded to 270 Garda members. The overall findings are: •Sex offender management in Ireland has become formal only since 2001. Knowledge, skills and expertise is in its infancy and is still evolving. •Mixed reviews and questions regarding fitness for purpose of currently used risk assessments tools were noted. •The Sex Offender Act 2001 requires additional elements to ensure safe sex offender monitoring and public protection. A judicial review of the Sex Offender Act 2001 was recommended by many respondents. •Interagency working under SORAM was hugely welcomed. The sharing of information has been welcomed by managing agencies as the key benefit to improving sex offender management. •Respondents reported that in practice, sex offender management in Ireland is fragmented and unevenly implemented. The research concluded that an independent National Sex Offender Authority should be established as an oversight and regulatory body for policy, strategy and direction in sex offender management. Further areas of research were also highlighted: ongoing evaluation and audits of the joint agency process and systems in place; recidivism studies tracking the risk assessment ratings and subsequent offending; and an evaluation of the current status of sex offender housing in Ireland.

Predicting risk of violence through a self-appraisal questionnaire

The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) is a self-report that predicts the risk of violence and recidivism and provides relevant information about treatment needs for incarcerated populations. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the concurrent and predictive validity of this self-report in Spanish offenders. The SAQ was administered to 276 offenders recruited from several prisons in Madrid (Spain). SAQ total scores presented high levels of internal consistency (alpha = .92). Correlations of the instrument with violence risk instruments were statistically significant and showed a moderate magnitude, indicating a reasonable degree of concurrent validity. The ROC analysis carried out on the SAQ total score revealed an AUC of .80, showing acceptable accuracy discriminating between violent and nonviolent recidivist groups. It is concluded that the SAQ total score is a reliable and valid measure to estimate violence and recidivism risk in Spanish offenders.

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in this issue); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. doi:10.1080/1068316X.2014.917854]. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.