847 resultados para Risk and loss functions


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Cardiovascular risk is determined by the complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. The apoE genotype represents the most-widely-studied single nucleotide polymorphism in relation to CVD risk, with >3600 publications cited in PubMed. Although originally described as a mediator of lipoprotein metabolism, the lipoprotein-independent functions of apoE are being increasingly recognised, with limited data available on the potential impact of genotype on these metabolic processes. Furthermore, although meta-analyses suggest that apoE4 carriers may have a 40-50% increased CVD risk, the associations reported in individual studies are highly heterogeneous and it is recognised that environmental factors such as smoking status and dietary fat composition influence genotype-phenotype associations. However, information is often derived from observational studies or small intervention trials in which retrospective genotyping of the cohort results in small group sizes in the rarer E2 and E4 subgroups. Either larger well-standardised intervention trials or smaller trials with prospective recruitment according to apoE genotype are needed to fully establish the impact of diet on genotype-CVD associations and to establish the potential of dietary strategies such as reduced total fat, saturated fat, or increased antioxidant intakes to counteract the increased CVD burden in apoE4 carriers.

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Dietary fibre has been proposed to decrease risk for colon cancer by altering the composition of intestinal microbes or their activity. In the present study, the changes in intestinal microbiota and its activity, and immunological characteristics, such as cyclo-oxygenase (COX)-2 gene expression in mucosa, in pigs fed with a high-energy-density diet, with and without supplementation of a soluble fibre (polydextrose; PDX) (30 g/d) were assessed in different intestinal compartments. PDX was gradually fermented throughout the intestine, and was still present in the distal colon. Irrespective of the diet throughout the intestine, of the four microbial groups determined by fluorescent in situ hybridisation, lactobacilli were found to be dominating, followed by clostridia and Bacteroides. Bifidobacteria represented a minority of the total intestinal microbiota. The numbers of bacteria increased approximately ten-fold from the distal small intestine to the distal colon. Concomitantly, also concentrations of SCFA and biogenic amines increased in the large intestine. In contrast, concentrations of luminal IgA decreased distally but the expression of mucosal COX-2 had a tendency to increase in the mucosa towards the distal colon. Addition of PDX to the diet significantly changed the fermentation endproducts, especially in the distal colon, whereas effects on bacteria] composition were rather minor. There was a reduction in concentrations of SCFA and tryptamine, and an increase in concentrations of spermidine in the colon upon PDX supplementation. Furthermore, PDX tended to decrease the expression of mucosal COX-2, therefore possibly reducing the risk of developing colon cancer-promoting conditions in the distal intestine.

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This study focuses on the wealth-protective effects of socially responsible firm behavior by examining the association between corporate social performance (CSP) and financial risk for an extensive panel data sample of S&P 500 companies between the years 1992 and 2009. In addition, the link between CSP and investor utility is investigated. The main findings are that corporate social responsibility is negatively but weakly related to systematic firm risk and that corporate social irresponsibility is positively and strongly related to financial risk. The fact that both conventional and downside risk measures lead to the same conclusions adds convergent validity to the analysis. However, the risk-return trade-off appears to be such that no clear utility gain or loss can be realized by investing in firms characterized by different levels of social and environmental performance. Overall volatility conditions of the financial markets are shown to play a moderating role in the nature and strength of the CSP-risk relationship.

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The 2008-2009 financial crisis and related organizational and economic failures have meant that financial organizations are faced with a ‘tsunami’ of new regulatory obligations. This environment provides new managerial challenges as organizations are forced to engage in complex and costly remediation projects with short deadlines. Drawing from a longitudinal study conducted with nine financial institutions over twelve years, this paper identifies nine IS capabilities which underpin activities for managing regulatory themed governance, risk and compliance efforts. The research shows that many firms are now focused on meeting the Regulators’ deadlines at the expense of developing a strategic, enterprise-wide connected approach to compliance. Consequently, executives are in danger of implementing siloed compliance solutions within business functions. By evaluating the maturity of their IS capabilities which underpin regulatory adherence, managers have an opportunity to develop robust operational architectures and so are better positioned to face the challenges derived from shifting regulatory landscapes.

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HSPC300 is essential for most SCAR complex functions. The phenotype of HSPC300 knockouts is most similar to mutants in scar, not the other members of the SCAR complex, suggesting that HSPC300 acts most directly on SCAR itself.

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Risk attitudes are known to be sensitive to large stake variations. However, little is known on the sensitivity to moderate variations in stakes. This is important for studies that want to compare risk attitudes between countries or over time. I find that variations of ±20% affect only utility, while larger variations may affect also probability weighting. Surprisingly, the effect on weighting functions is larger for losses than for gains. It is also more pronounced for risk than for uncertainty.

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Distribution systems with distributed generation require new analysis methods since networks are not longer passive. Two of the main problems in this new scenario are the network reconfiguration and the loss allocation. This work presents a distribution systems graphic simulator, developed with reconfiguration functions and a special focus on loss allocation, both considering the presence of distributed generation. This simulator uses a fast and robust power flow algorithm based on the current summation backward-forward technique. Reconfiguration problem is solved through a heuristic methodology and the losses allocation function, based on the Zbus method, is presented as an attached result for each obtained configuration. Results are presented and discussed, remarking the easiness of analysis through the graphic simulator as an excellent tool for planning and operation engineers, and very useful for training. © 2004 IEEE.

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Low flexibility and reliability in the operation of radial distribution networks make those systems be constructed with extra equipment as sectionalising switches in order to reconfigure the network, so the operation quality of the network can be improved. Thus, sectionalising switches are used for fault isolation and for configuration management (reconfiguration). Moreover, distribution systems are being impacted by the increasing insertion of distributed generators. Hence, distributed generation became one of the relevant parameters in the evaluation of systems reconfiguration. Distributed generation may affect distribution networks operation in various ways, causing noticeable impacts depending on its location. Thus, the loss allocation problem becomes more important considering the possibility of open access to the distribution networks. In this work, a graphic simulator for distribution networks with reconfiguration and loss allocation functions, is presented. Reconfiguration problem is solved through a heuristic methodology, using a robust power flow algorithm based on the current summation backward-forward technique, considering distributed generation. Four different loss allocation methods (Zbus, Direct Loss Coefficient, Substitution and Marginal Loss Coefficient) are implemented and compared. Results for a 32-bus medium voltage distribution network, are presented and discussed.

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Depression is a highly prevalent illness among institutionalized aged and assumes peculiar characteristics such as the risk for progressing to dementia. The aims of this study was to assess the cognitive functions of institutionalized elderly with clinical diagnosis of depression and compare the severity of depressive symptoms with cognitive performance. From 120 residents at a nursing home in Rio Claro, Brazil, we study 23 individuals (mean age: 74.3 years; mean schooling: 4.0 years) with diagnosis of depression. At first, a clinical diagnosis of depression and measurement of its symptoms using the Geriatric Depression Scale were performed. The patient then underwent a neuropsychological assessment based on the following tests: Mini-Mental Examination, Verbal Fluency, Visual Perception, Immediate Memory, Recent Memory, Recognition, Clock Drawing Test. The patients were divided into two groups: those with less severe depression symptoms (Group 1: N=9) and more severe symptoms (Group 2: N=14). The significant difference between symptom severity of the two groups was p=0.0001. Patients with more severe symptoms revealed a slightly inferior cognitive performance in most of the tests when compared to those with less severe symptoms (p>0.05). In relation to Verbal Fluency, patients with more severe depression symptoms presented a significantly inferior cognitive performance when compared to those with less severe symptoms (p=0.0082). Verbal Fluency revealed to be a more sensitive test for measuring early cognitive alterations in institutionalized aged with depression, and appears to be a useful resource in monitoring the cognitive functions of patients faced with the risk of dementia. © Copyright Moreira Jr. Editora.

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This report was prepared at the request of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) with support from the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) to assess strategies for linking the ECLAC Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) Methology to the Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA). Each metholodolgy was individually outlined and their use in the Caribbean context was explored in detail to set the framework or lens through which their linking would be viewed. Other methologies that are used within the recovery process were identified and outlined. A gap analysis was conducted on moving from the PDNA with a focus on initial rapid reponse to DaLA. DaLA training materials were reviewed to assess where improvements can be made to seamlessly move from one methology to the next. Additionally, both DaLA and PDNA reports were reviewed to identify specific areas of information which could serve as common data links, and note how this linkage could inform the overall disaster assessments in the region. This is in addition to noting any similarities or variance in the application of both methologies. Challenges to linking both methodologies were identified such as countries lacking well defined recovery frameworks and their ability to fund or finance recovery efforts, in addition to recurrent challenges in the Caribbean region such as inadequacy of baseline data, human resource and training, and identifying teams to conduct the data collection. Recommendations made in terms of the strategies to be employed for the successful linking of both the DaLA and PDNA Methodologies included: creating and maintaining a recovery framework and baseline data; creation of a minimum requirements list for the successful implementation of PDNA and DaLA implementation; and increasing political will in addition to identify a champion to push the subject.

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Objective: To evaluate whether there are visual and neurophysical decrements in workers with low exposure to Hg vapor. Methods: Visual fields, contrast sensitivity, color vision, and neuropsychological functions were measured in 10 workers (32.5 +/- 8.5 years) chronically exposed to Hg vapor (4.3 +/- 2.8 years; urinary Hg concentration 22.3 +/- 9.3 mu g/g creatinine). Results: For the worst eyes, we found altered visual field thresholds, lower contrast sensitivity, and color discrimination compared with controls (P < 0.05). There were no significant differences between Hg-exposed subjects and controls on. neuropsychological tests. Nevertheless, duration of exposure was statistically correlated to verbal memory and depression scores. Conclusions: Chronic exposure to Hg vapor at currently accepted safety levels was found to be associated with visual losses but not with neuropsychological dysfunctions in the sample of workers studied. (J Occup Environ Med. 2009,51:1403-1412)

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In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: Coronary artery calcification (CAC) and low bone density are coexisting deleterious conditions commonly shared by chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. In the present study, we aimed to investigate whether the progression of CAC was associated with overtime reduction in bone density in non-dialyzed CKD patients. Methods: This is a prospective study of 24 months including 72 non-dialyzed CKD patients Stages 2 - 4 (age 57.6 +/- 10.3 years, 62% male, 22% diabetics). CAC and vertebral bone density (VBD) were measured by computed tomography. Results: At baseline, 46% of the patients had CAC (calcified group) and calcification was not identified in 54% of the patients (non-calcified group). The calcified group was older, predominantly male, and had lower VBD in comparison to non-calcified group. CAC progression was observed only in the calcified group (91% of the patients increased calcium score). The multiple regression analysis revealed loss of VBD as the independent determinant of CAC progression in these patients. Conclusion: CAC progression was associated with loss of VBD in non-dialyzed CKD patients.

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Context: In the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic Acid Once Yearly - Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT), zoledronic acid (ZOL) 5 mg significantly reduced fracture risk. Objective: To identify factors associated with greater efficacy during ZOL 5 mg treatment. Design, Setting and Patients: Subgroup analysis (preplanned and post hoc) of a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 36-month trial in 7765 women with postmenopausal osteoporosis. Intervention: Single infusion of ZOL 5 mg or placebo at baseline, 12 and 24 months. Main Outcome Measures: Primary endpoints: new vertebral fracture and hip fracture. Secondary endpoints: non-vertebral fracture, change in femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Baseline risk factor subgroups: age, BMD T-score and vertebral fracture status, total hip BMD, race, weight, geographical region, smoking, height loss, history of falls, physical activity, prior bisphosphonates, creatinine clearance, body mass index (BMI), concomitant osteoporosis medications. Results: Greater ZOL induced effects on vertebral fracture risk with younger age (treatment-by-subgroup interaction P=0.05), normal creatinine clearance (P=0.04), and BMI >/=25 kg/m(2) (P=0.02). There were no significant treatment-factor interactions for hip or non-vertebral fracture or for change in BMD. Conclusions: ZOL appeared more effective in preventing vertebral fracture in younger women, overweight/obese women and women with normal renal function. ZOL had similar effects irrespective of fracture risk factors or femoral neck BMD.